The big Coronavirus thread

morstar

orraloon said:

morstar said:

Dorset_Boy said:

Going to be a baby boom across Europe in December & January next. Alledgedly, a major porn site are giving free premium access to all Italians to 'help them pass the time'. Is that what they were all singing about?

Solve the pension crisis in one go.
Cull the economically inactive (copyright Conservative party UK) and bring in a new generation.
It’s like a co-ordinated plan.

Weirdo. You could get a job in Downing Street.

It’s been my plan all along. I thought this was the application process.

mrb123

If we test everyone, at what point to we have to re-test all the ones who test negative first time round?

orraloon

Ah c'mon. Is not the Black Death. The deads are the same category that get taken out every other year by the 'flu version n.

lucan2

"Restaurants, cafes, bars and 'non-essential' shops across France must close from midnight until further notice.
Cases of the virus have doubled in France in the last 72 hours
France is now at level 3 (of 3) of national epidemic
Call for everyone to act responsibly and follow advice to limit the spread of the virus"

slowbike

Yup. Travel co text emailed and called us to say don’t go to the airport (not that we were going to go anyway) and all ski resorts in France are closed

Fortunately we get a full refund now

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

focuszing723 said:

mrfpb said:

focuszing723 said:

Jeremy.89 said:

Out in the USA working at the moment. Feels like the response has gone from 0 to 60 in no time at all...

I expect as you probably know Trump is about to give a speech, talk of issuing a state of emergency to release funds.

I'm wickedly hoping he'll announce he has it, after the visit from the Brazilians.

Ha, nah he sounds great, greater than any other president in the world. Fifty bill on tap now. He seems to be sniffing a bit, ominous!

My suspicion is that the US is in heading towards a catastrophe, as it seems they've been deliberately restricting testing to keep figures low, and the costs of testing will have added to the effect. I reckon give it a fortnight, and it's going to be a shîtstorm. Trump's shaken hands with more than one person who's been tested positive... not that I'd hope for anyone to become ill, you understand...

I don’t get why you think the USA or heading for a catastrophe and we aren’t despite our current policy of letting it run. The only difference seems to be us claiming it is a deliberate policy.

Worth a play. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-trump-response.html

fenix

orraloon said:

Ah c'mon. Is not the Black Death. The deads are the same category that get taken out every other year by the 'flu version n.

You've not been paying attention have you ?

DeVlaeminck

surrey_commuter said:

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

P

tailwindhome said:

Worth reading this thread summary of the UK strategy

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238518371651649538.html

The various sports authorities cancelling large scale events seems to have knocked out a central plank of the strategy. Lots of businesses really not doing their bit to accelerate the spread.

If they find they can not control the spread then it is going to go down as one of the dumbest decisions in history.

Yes I think they've been quite open in saying that is the strategy though. They've talked about herd immunity and flattening the curve so I don't think there is much in that summary that isn't accepted knowledge.

Of course from an individual perspective it may be rational to let every other person catch it but try and avoid it yourself - a collective action problem if you like. At 51 but healthy say I'm not classed as high risk I'm probably in the category it makes sense for the govt to want to catch it - so long as I don't catch it at the same time as everyone else - but it still doesn't make sense for me to want to catch it.

Most rational course is probably to catch it early whilst they still have a hospital bed and ventilator if you need it.

Bloke at work reckoned Queen Mary’s was offering £3.5k for volunteers to get injected.

Yes one of my football team knows someone that has applied for that - not sure if she's actually been accepted I'm seeing them today at what'll probably be our last fixture this season - possibly ever - so if I remember I'll ask. I assume they've had a lot of takers.

I actually wouldn't mind getting the virus myself now as you say to get it over with while they still have a respirator should things not go smoothly I just assumed at 51 I'd be too old for any official study paying cash for it.

DeVlaeminck

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

This is the Spanish flu death chart by week.

Have heard the worry with doing too much early on is people get less disciplined just as you head towards the more deadly second wave

So a follow up to this: this is what U.K. govt seems to be aiming for.

And the rest of the world thinks that it is so contagious that they should do everything possible to slow the spread.

I, the WHO and the rest of the world think that the UK will get overwhelmed and have no hope of flattening the peaks.

Rick - you are usually hot on the primacy of Parliament- is it not a little strange this has not been properly debated and even voted on?

I did read the WHO had concerns about the UK course of action have you got any further on that because if experts with access to the data think that it would be somewhat worrying even if "our" experts disagree.

I think we have to accept that there "may" be an element of the UK policy balancing a number of factors other than just minimising number of deaths from that virus. That may include minimising economic disruption - I mean how many businesses can afford a lock down that goes on indefinitely. At the same time I really doubt that they aren't being broadly honest about the plan as outlined by Rick's post - that they think they can flatten the peak sufficiently for the NHS not to be completely overwhelmed. I mean politically all of us having friends and relatives dying that the responses abroad suggest could have survived would be a hard sell at the next election. Boris killed my grandad is not a vote winner.

Back to the UK response though - it's like we are descending a mountain pass approaching a hair pin - when and how hard do you apply the brakes to get through swiftly and smoothly without crashing - Scotland et al are already squeezing the levers whilst at most we are starting to sit up a bit to catch some more air, either a skilled descender who is going to get through this faster and more smoothly than the others or a reckless fool going to crash over the barrier into the ravine.

pblakeney

So, the over 70s may be getting isolated.
“The self-isolation measure would mean people being asked to remain at home without visitors and with vital supplies dropped off for them on their doorsteps.”
My brother and family are currently living with Dad until their new house is complete.
Does this make them homeless?

Pross

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

This is the Spanish flu death chart by week.

Have heard the worry with doing too much early on is people get less disciplined just as you head towards the more deadly second wave

So a follow up to this: this is what U.K. govt seems to be aiming for.

And the rest of the world thinks that it is so contagious that they should do everything possible to slow the spread.

I, the WHO and the rest of the world think that the UK will get overwhelmed and have no hope of flattening the peaks.

Rick - you are usually hot on the primacy of Parliament- is it not a little strange this has not been properly debated and even voted on?

I did read the WHO had concerns about the UK course of action have you got any further on that because if experts with access to the data think that it would be somewhat worrying even if "our" experts disagree.

I think we have to accept that there "may" be an element of the UK policy balancing a number of factors other than just minimising number of deaths from that virus. That may include minimising economic disruption - I mean how many businesses can afford a lock down that goes on indefinitely. At the same time I really doubt that they aren't being broadly honest about the plan as outlined by Rick's post - that they think they can flatten the peak sufficiently for the NHS not to be completely overwhelmed. I mean politically all of us having friends and relatives dying that the responses abroad suggest could have survived would be a hard sell at the next election. Boris killed my grandad is not a vote winner.

Back to the UK response though - it's like we are descending a mountain pass approaching a hair pin - when and how hard do you apply the brakes to get through swiftly and smoothly without crashing - Scotland et al are already squeezing the levers whilst at most we are starting to sit up a bit to catch some more air, either a skilled descender who is going to get through this faster and more smoothly than the others or a reckless fool going to crash over the barrier into the ravine.

The WHO basically said the UK response was theoretical and that this was a time for action not theory. There was no evidence as far as I'm aware as it's too early for evidence. Whilst I understand what their saying, if you don't test theories on how to deal with a new disease during its first outbreak how do you do it?

I'm still concerned that the quarantine everyone approach is just kicking the can down the road in the hope a vaccine gets developed before the next outbreak and how do we know when to lift the quarantine?

pblakeney

The proposed isolation for over 70s is to last for 4 months.
A bit of time perspective for those thinking this will go away in a few weeks.

Pross

Whilst I've heard plenty of talk about pushing back the spread until we are out of the winter bug season and the NHS is less stretched one thing I haven't heard mentioned is that we will then be in peak allergy season when a lot of otherwise healthy people will already have breathing issues. Would that increase the possible risks from the virus?

TheBigBean

pblakeney said:

So, the over 70s may be getting isolated.
“The self-isolation measure would mean people being asked to remain at home without visitors and with vital supplies dropped off for them on their doorsteps.”
My brother and family are currently living with Dad until their new house is complete.
Does this make them homeless?

Their options (I) move out (ii) self isolate with him (iii) materially increase the chances of him dying.

pblakeney

For 4 months?
The future is no longer orange, it is bleak.

thegreatdivide

It 'could' be four months. They've not decided yet.

pblakeney

Be prepared. Once it is announced it will be immediate.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
This means alternative accommodation (not easy to organise with say 48 hours notice) and stocking up supplies. If you can get any.
I think the assumption is that all over 70s live alone v

pblakeney

FWIW I think current policy is to announce a lot of possible action without enforcing them and people are complying.
Should it turn out to be unnecessary then it wasn’t official policy.

morstar

I have to say that the risk of the UK approach does present some concerns but, I genuinely don’t see how you can expect to completely suppress this without a lockdown taking many months.
With China now relaxing their shutdown, it will be interesting to see if the virus escalates again.

DeVlaeminck

Yes I mean presumably the virus originated in a single carrier, you either eliminate it completely or as soon as you relax controls unless the population has acquired immunity through infection or vaccination it starts over again. I suppose it could be argued you've bought time to prepare your health service etc.

Pross

I've actually seen a friend share a post on Facebook comparing countries most affected by Coronavirus with those which are rolling out 5G. I mean, I know she's nuts (big into holistic medicine, hates big pharma, thinks cancer should be treated with natural remedies, anti-vaccination etc.) but how even so how can anyone be seriously linking a virus with 5G?

awavey

surrey_commuter said:

Rick - you are usually hot on the primacy of Parliament- is it not a little strange this has not been properly debated and even voted on?

but I beleive this policy has been around or at least worked on for the past 10 years, and its all published, its not something the government cooked up in the past couple of weeks, and I dont know that parliament necessarily debates this stuff as they clearly arent all experts in this field and its not party political policy

and youd just end up with a political debate, and politics IMO on this is the one thing you want to keep as far away from decision making on this as possible, because politics comes down to an emotional response, they believe etc etc, not they know because theyve got a stack of qualifications in epidemiology and spent their whole working life in this field.

if you watched the 5G debate last week, youd have seen politicians who know nothing about technology, or 5G networks, on anything quite frankly it often seems, passionately stating they believe they know far better and far more than organisations like GCHQ who have spent years pulling these things to pieces for security flaws, and what won out, the politics, so the UK will be forced into implementing a political solution for no better reason than the politicians dont understand the subject properly and wont trust what the experts they employ tell them.

rick_chasey

morstar said:

I have to say that the risk of the UK approach does present some concerns but, I genuinely don’t see how you can expect to completely suppress this without a lockdown taking many months.
With China now relaxing their shutdown, it will be interesting to see if the virus escalates again.

Has already.

rick_chasey

So I get the sense those in the WHO are criticising the U.K. for trying to achieve ‘perfection’ when in an pandemic emergency speed is the only way to have success

kingstongraham

Isis have issued travel advice that their terrorists should avoid travel to Europe. Also, I guess, no large scale gatherings affects them.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/03/14/ISIS-issues-travel-warning-to-coronavirus-hit-countries.html#

awavey

pblakeney said:

The proposed isolation for over 70s is to last for 4 months.
A bit of time perspective for those thinking this will go away in a few weeks.

I think thats the biggest thing those calling for a lockdown dont really understand, its not a temporary 7 day/14 day isolation thing and everything goes back to normal, the peak probability chart suggests June will be its worst point, I dont think the Italians are going to be singing to each other much after spending the next 3 months like this but we'll see.

and theres lots of unintended/unexpected consequences, Alex Dowsett is stuck in Lanzarote now, and running out of haemophilia medication, there could be diabetic patients in the same situation running out of insulin, or blood pressure tablets

I got chatting to some people working in a pub yesterday as they were saying how it seemed really quiet for a Saturday,takings were down, and it was quiet I went in a card shop to buy a mothers day card, and normally you are fighting past people to get to the mothers day card section, I was the only customer in the whole shop, but the pub owner said if the government forced them to close, thats his business finished, he'd go bankrupt & all his staff would lose their jobs they are only surviving at the moment through turnover, I walked past a restaurant on Friday night, normally packed, there were 3 people on one table.

all these businesses, and all the people they employ, and all the suppliers they use could be wiped out and then where do they get their money to buy their food, or their medication

kingstonian

The economic implications of this are likely to be enormous. Prolonged isolation will kill huge numbers of companies, I just don’t see how governments can prevent that happening. Unless countries can drag themselves back out of this quickly it will be a very painful recession.

Pross

kingstonian said:

The economic implications of this are likely to be enormous. Prolonged isolation will kill huge numbers of companies, I just don’t see how governments can prevent that happening. Unless countries can drag themselves back out of this quickly it will be a very painful recession.

That's my biggest concern. Not just in terms of the short term effect of personal finance but on long term health impacts that another severe financial downturn could cause. The last recession was linked to 1,000 suicides in the UK alone.

joe2019

Austria has banned gatherings of more than five people!

orraloon

joe2019 said:

Austria has banned gatherings of more than five people!

What if a couple have 4 children? Now, who is the least favourite child...? 😊