The big Coronavirus thread

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  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,698
    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    First.Aspect said:

    focuszing723 said:

    The virus which drove the Covid-19 pandemic most likely emerged from a laboratory leak but not as part of a weapons program, according to an updated and classified 2021 US energy department study provided to the White House and senior American lawmakers, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.

    The department’s finding – a departure from previous studies on how the virus emerged – came in an update to a document from the office of National Intelligence director Avril Haines. It follows an FBI finding, issued with “moderate confidence”, that the virus spread after leaking out of a Chinese laboratory.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/26/covid-virus-likely-laboratory-leak-us-energy-department
    If correct, quite a costly mistake for the UK that, around £500,000,000,000 worth.
    *Stop the presses - intelligence organisation tasked with finding out if there was a lab leak concludes there was a lab leak.*

    In other news, countless scientific analyses have concluded that it crossed interspecies barriers into the human population.
    No one can know for sure either way.

    Irrespective of whether there was a leak or not, weaponising viruses in the name of science is not a great idea. Fauci arranged funding for a lot of it.
    I can't rule out completely that the world is being controlled by aliens disguised as office workers, but I prefer policy to be based on the most likely scenarios.

    This isn't the first serious enquiry that has suggested a lab leak is most likely and given the presence of labs in that area of China involved in that kind of research it's hardly the stuff of conspiracy theories.
    Uh huh. But there are far fewer of them than the enquiries that say it can't be ruled out by thst natural transmission is more likely, given the genetic patterns.
    Lab leak does not necessarily mean artificial.
    That's a take I've not come across before.

    My understanding is that the pattern of mutations does seem to point elsewhere, though.

    But tbh I don't understand the issues well enough to do anything other than parrot what I've heard.

    Don't go bringing parrots into it.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    People don't like "probably" and don't deal with probabilities all that well.

    It is a moot point unless there is a smoking gun, which there never will be. Its not like bladerunner where the designer leaves a serial number at the atomic level.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,226
    Imagine giving all your messages to Isabel Oakeshott.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,226
    edited March 2023
    kingstongraham said:

    Imagine giving all your messages to Isabel Oakeshott.

    This is her yesterday
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,589
    kingstongraham said:

    Imagine giving all your messages to Isabel Oakeshott.

    And then moaning that she signed a legal NDA.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,482
    Didn't quite make it to the third anniversary unscathed.
    Thought we had a cold but wife had to test as she's a nurse. Buggerit.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,698
    pblakeney said:

    Didn't quite make it to the third anniversary unscathed.
    Thought we had a cold but wife had to test as she's a nurse. Buggerit.


    Sorry to hear that, though at least you won't have to make any excuses about why you shouldn't go into work tomorrow.

    I hope it's mild, and that the annoyance of being stuck at home with you is the worst of it.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,610
    pblakeney said:

    Didn't quite make it to the third anniversary unscathed.
    Thought we had a cold but wife had to test as she's a nurse. Buggerit.

    Hope it's a mild dose.
    We're pretty certain we caught it again coming back through Geneva airport. The OH succumbed first and has take 3 weeks to recover. I then caught it and was less than 100% for a couple of weeks, so in both cases, longer than a cold.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,482
    edited March 2023
    briantrumpet said:

    pblakeney said:

    Didn't quite make it to the third anniversary unscathed.
    Thought we had a cold but wife had to test as she's a nurse. Buggerit.


    Sorry to hear that, though at least you won't have to make any excuses about why you shouldn't go into work tomorrow.

    I hope it's mild, and that the annoyance of being stuck at home with you is the worst of it.
    Wfh so hah! Just as well as I don't get paid for a no show. Strikes me as mild, similar to a head cold which I was happy to treat with hot toddies.
    Wife has it much worse. What's strange is my test was way more positive. Just tough as. 😉
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,698
    pblakeney said:

    briantrumpet said:

    pblakeney said:

    Didn't quite make it to the third anniversary unscathed.
    Thought we had a cold but wife had to test as she's a nurse. Buggerit.


    Sorry to hear that, though at least you won't have to make any excuses about why you shouldn't go into work tomorrow.

    I hope it's mild, and that the annoyance of being stuck at home with you is the worst of it.
    Wfh so hah! Just as well as I don't get paid for a no show. Strikes me as mild, similar to a head cold which I was happy to treat with hot toddies.
    Wife has it much worse. What's strange is my test was way more positive. Just tough as. 😉

    Yeah, I know a couple where the wife had a stinker (which developed into bronchitis weeks later), but kept on testing negative, and he only found out he was positive (bright red line) when he did a test before going to the dentist. It's all still a bit weird.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,108
    pblakeney said:

    briantrumpet said:

    pblakeney said:

    Didn't quite make it to the third anniversary unscathed.
    Thought we had a cold but wife had to test as she's a nurse. Buggerit.


    Sorry to hear that, though at least you won't have to make any excuses about why you shouldn't go into work tomorrow.

    I hope it's mild, and that the annoyance of being stuck at home with you is the worst of it.
    Wfh so hah! Just as well as I don't get paid for a no show. Strikes me as mild, similar to a head cold which I was happy to treat with hot toddies.
    Wife has it much worse. What's strange is my test was way more positive. Just tough as. 😉

    Yes it seems to be very variable in its effects - take it easy for a while though minimise the chance of any long COVID symptoms
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,482
    DeVlaeminck said:

    pblakeney said:

    briantrumpet said:

    pblakeney said:

    Didn't quite make it to the third anniversary unscathed.
    Thought we had a cold but wife had to test as she's a nurse. Buggerit.


    Sorry to hear that, though at least you won't have to make any excuses about why you shouldn't go into work tomorrow.

    I hope it's mild, and that the annoyance of being stuck at home with you is the worst of it.
    Wfh so hah! Just as well as I don't get paid for a no show. Strikes me as mild, similar to a head cold which I was happy to treat with hot toddies.
    Wife has it much worse. What's strange is my test was way more positive. Just tough as. 😉

    Yes it seems to be very variable in its effects - take it easy for a while though minimise the chance of any long COVID symptoms
    I did a couple of hard turbo sessions at the weekend and wasn't far off PBs.
    But yes, I'll be taking it easy now.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,698
    Telegraph going all in on trying to convince everyone that lockdowns were wrong.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811
    Seems a bit of a futile campaign, but I guess it pays Oakeshott's bills. Johnson's gone, Hancock is a laughing stock. Are they just trying to make absolutely sure there are no comebacks?
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811
    The one snippet I saw from the WhatsApp messages that was actually news was the bit where Cummings has to patiently explain to Johnson that a probability of 0.04 is not the same as a 0.04% chance. And so his calculation' that only 22,000 would die was wildly incorrect.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    Right or wrong, lockdowns were the measures historically used to protect the population from contagious diseases... this goes way back to the plague. Tried and tested... the alternatives might be just as effective, but indefensible if they turn out not to be.
    Nations that implemented very strict lockdowns very early on had the best outcome. I think the mistake most nations did was to delay the start until they had no other choice.
    left the forum March 2023
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,655
    I think if "alternatives" had been less effective, but less harmful, they would not be indefensible.

    I don't think the second winter was handled well at all, shutting of schools should probably have been far more of a last resort. Alternatively, announce at the start of the Christmas holidays that schools are planning not to go back, so that (at least some) prep can be done.

  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,698
    Jezyboy said:

    I think if "alternatives" had been less effective, but less harmful, they would not be indefensible.

    I don't think the second winter was handled well at all, shutting of schools should probably have been far more of a last resort. Alternatively, announce at the start of the Christmas holidays that schools are planning not to go back, so that (at least some) prep can be done.


    That was just normal Johnson delaying decisions till it was too late.

    This Telegraph campaign is all about trying to rehabilitate the ärsehole, and to undermine the science and mechanisms that guided decisions: they want it to be purely political.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,226
    They went back for one day, didn't they? Which seems to be the worst of all worlds.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    kingstongraham said:

    They went back for one day, didn't they? Which seems to be the worst of all worlds.

    For families that was probably the darkest day of the whole Covid experience
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited March 2023
    Posters above are right, it's easy to forget that the success or failure of lockdown was really contingent on timing.

    Easy to forget that now.
    _
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,655
    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstongraham said:

    They went back for one day, didn't they? Which seems to be the worst of all worlds.

    For families that was probably the darkest day of the whole Covid experience
    I don't really get why the govt got off so lightly when this happened.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    People are quick to moan… their mental health and all of that.. and the disruption to kids education… ultimately, this was an event comparable to being under Russian attack in Ukraine… nobody knew how and if we were going to come out of it at the time. So, all this talk of lives ruined by a few weeks indoors in my opinion should be printed and used as bog roll. It might be that in early 2021 things were a bit clearer than one year earlier, but most people were still unvaccinated, so it could have still gone either way.
    What is the word? Resilience? Two weeks without tomatoes on the shelves and we are doomed, really?
    left the forum March 2023
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,698
    rick_chasey said:

    Posters above are right, it's easy to forget that the success or failure of lockdown was really contingent on timing.

    Easy to forget that now.


    That's what they are relying on. The figures were already going nuts before Christmas.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,655
    It wasn't a few weeks.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    Jezyboy said:

    It wasn't a few weeks.

    it was a few weeks… first lockdown was pretty much over on June 1st… unless you are thinking to the removal of all restrictions.l. so maybe 10 weeks
    Second lockdown was pretty much over in March, so a bit less

    left the forum March 2023
  • drhaggis
    drhaggis Posts: 1,150
    ugo.santalucia said:

    People are quick to moan… their mental health and all of that.. and the disruption to kids education… ultimately, this was an event comparable to being under Russian attack in Ukraine… nobody knew how and if we were going to come out of it at the time. So, all this talk of lives ruined by a few weeks indoors in my opinion should be printed and used as bog roll. It might be that in early 2021 things were a bit clearer than one year earlier, but most people were still unvaccinated, so it could have still gone either way.
    What is the word? Resilience? Two weeks without tomatoes on the shelves and we are doomed, really?

    It is stupid to disregard the impact of the pandemic on the mental welbeing of the younger ones. "You shut up because I could have died" is really not a good card to play, and I assure you many kids and uni students struggeld.
  • bm5
    bm5 Posts: 599
    It's been bad for nearly everyone's mental health.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,226
    Never let it be said that Hancock was always wrong.

  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    drhaggis said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    People are quick to moan… their mental health and all of that.. and the disruption to kids education… ultimately, this was an event comparable to being under Russian attack in Ukraine… nobody knew how and if we were going to come out of it at the time. So, all this talk of lives ruined by a few weeks indoors in my opinion should be printed and used as bog roll. It might be that in early 2021 things were a bit clearer than one year earlier, but most people were still unvaccinated, so it could have still gone either way.
    What is the word? Resilience? Two weeks without tomatoes on the shelves and we are doomed, really?

    It is stupid to disregard the impact of the pandemic on the mental welbeing of the younger ones. "You shut up because I could have died" is really not a good card to play, and I assure you many kids and uni students struggeld.
    Of course, but sometimes it is inevitable. The alternative was much worse

    left the forum March 2023

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