The big Coronavirus thread

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Comments

  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,108
    They could just accept a lower level of vaccination and quietly drop the zero covid lockdown policy.

    I mean there are countries that neither vaccinated in any great numbers or locked people down. With the covid variants being less virulent now that would seem the obvious solution.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    DeVlaeminck said:

    They could just accept a lower level of vaccination and quietly drop the zero covid lockdown policy.

    I mean there are countries that neither vaccinated in any great numbers or locked people down. With the covid variants being less virulent now that would seem the obvious solution.

    I think it has been modelled and would lead to healthcare chaos and over a million deaths.
    It is ironic that two years ago we were praising China for their rapid response and ability to build a field hospital in hours... I guess they'll probably be a bit more careful mixing humans and wildlife in the future, innit...

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed
    left the forum March 2023
  • wallace_and_gromit
    wallace_and_gromit Posts: 3,696
    ugo.santalucia said:

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed

    Yup. It doesn't help that their Big Cheeses insist on using a vaccine that is known to be cr*p when Pfizer etc. could supply them with something that actually works.

    They also seem to have focused on vaccinating younger folk rather than the higher risk groups. I'm not a big fan of the almost religious zeal with which the NHS is regarded by the older generation in the UK, but it certainly helped in convincing them to get jabbed asap.



  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    wallace_and_gromit said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed

    Yup. It doesn't help that their Big Cheeses insist on using a vaccine that is known to be cr*p when Pfizer etc. could supply them with something that actually works.

    They also seem to have focused on vaccinating younger folk rather than the higher risk groups. I'm not a big fan of the almost religious zeal with which the NHS is regarded by the older generation in the UK, but it certainly helped in convincing them to get jabbed asap.



    Well, Moderna and Pfizer cost around 15-20 USD a shot. If they wanted to vaccinate 1.5b people with 3 doses, that would come at almost 90b USD... they might get a discount, but it's still crazy money... about 5% of their GDP... that is before the cost of consumables and staff involved...
    It would also be a bit like admitting that the might of their science could only come up with a "Chinese copy" of a good vaccine
    left the forum March 2023
  • wallace_and_gromit
    wallace_and_gromit Posts: 3,696
    ugo.santalucia said:

    wallace_and_gromit said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed

    Yup. It doesn't help that their Big Cheeses insist on using a vaccine that is known to be cr*p when Pfizer etc. could supply them with something that actually works.

    They also seem to have focused on vaccinating younger folk rather than the higher risk groups. I'm not a big fan of the almost religious zeal with which the NHS is regarded by the older generation in the UK, but it certainly helped in convincing them to get jabbed asap.



    Well, Moderna and Pfizer cost around 15-20 USD a shot. If they wanted to vaccinate 1.5b people with 3 doses, that would come at almost 90b USD... they might get a discount, but it's still crazy money... about 5% of their GDP... that is before the cost of consumables and staff involved...
    It would also be a bit like admitting that the might of their science could only come up with a "Chinese copy" of a good vaccine
    Astra Zeneca then? Seemed to do the job for India.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    wallace_and_gromit said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    wallace_and_gromit said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed

    Yup. It doesn't help that their Big Cheeses insist on using a vaccine that is known to be cr*p when Pfizer etc. could supply them with something that actually works.

    They also seem to have focused on vaccinating younger folk rather than the higher risk groups. I'm not a big fan of the almost religious zeal with which the NHS is regarded by the older generation in the UK, but it certainly helped in convincing them to get jabbed asap.



    Well, Moderna and Pfizer cost around 15-20 USD a shot. If they wanted to vaccinate 1.5b people with 3 doses, that would come at almost 90b USD... they might get a discount, but it's still crazy money... about 5% of their GDP... that is before the cost of consumables and staff involved...
    It would also be a bit like admitting that the might of their science could only come up with a "Chinese copy" of a good vaccine
    Astra Zeneca then? Seemed to do the job for India.
    Yeah, they should stick to making chainrings... they make bloody good chainrings... I've got a collection of 38/40/44/48/52T rings for half the price of a single Rotor one.
    left the forum March 2023
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    ugo.santalucia said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    They could just accept a lower level of vaccination and quietly drop the zero covid lockdown policy.

    I mean there are countries that neither vaccinated in any great numbers or locked people down. With the covid variants being less virulent now that would seem the obvious solution.

    I think it has been modelled and would lead to healthcare chaos and over a million deaths.
    It is ironic that two years ago we were praising China for their rapid response and ability to build a field hospital in hours... I guess they'll probably be a bit more careful mixing humans and wildlife in the future, innit...

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed
    that modelled outcome does not seem too bad, proportional to theUK that would be the equivalent of 50,000 deaths.

    Unless my sums are out by a factor of 10
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    surrey_commuter said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    They could just accept a lower level of vaccination and quietly drop the zero covid lockdown policy.

    I mean there are countries that neither vaccinated in any great numbers or locked people down. With the covid variants being less virulent now that would seem the obvious solution.

    I think it has been modelled and would lead to healthcare chaos and over a million deaths.
    It is ironic that two years ago we were praising China for their rapid response and ability to build a field hospital in hours... I guess they'll probably be a bit more careful mixing humans and wildlife in the future, innit...

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed
    that modelled outcome does not seem too bad, proportional to theUK that would be the equivalent of 50,000 deaths.

    Unless my sums are out by a factor of 10
    Yeah, but 2.5 years in the pandemic, it doesn't sound like a big win...
    left the forum March 2023
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,183
    DeVlaeminck said:

    They could just accept a lower level of vaccination and quietly drop the zero covid lockdown policy.

    I mean there are countries that neither vaccinated in any great numbers or locked people down. With the covid variants being less virulent now that would seem the obvious solution.

    The *average* person infected with eg Omicron has less severe disease, but it is substantially more transmissible. If you have a poorly protected population with large number of people who continue to mingle with mild or asymptomatic Infection, then huge numbers will die.
    UK only got away (as far as it did) with “letting it rip” because of very high vaccine & booster uptake. That isn’t the case in China.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    ugo.santalucia said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    They could just accept a lower level of vaccination and quietly drop the zero covid lockdown policy.

    I mean there are countries that neither vaccinated in any great numbers or locked people down. With the covid variants being less virulent now that would seem the obvious solution.

    I think it has been modelled and would lead to healthcare chaos and over a million deaths.
    It is ironic that two years ago we were praising China for their rapid response and ability to build a field hospital in hours... I guess they'll probably be a bit more careful mixing humans and wildlife in the future, innit...

    Looks like they are well and truly fuxxed
    that modelled outcome does not seem too bad, proportional to theUK that would be the equivalent of 50,000 deaths.

    Unless my sums are out by a factor of 10
    Yeah, but 2.5 years in the pandemic, it doesn't sound like a big win...
    I was more thinking not a big loss rather than not a big win
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,717
    China is about to become the antivaxxers dream laboratory in the same way Truss made the UK the IEA's dream laboratory



    With similar results...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    ddraver said:

    China is about to become the antivaxxers dream laboratory in the same way Truss made the UK the IEA's dream laboratory



    With similar results...
    They are well fxed, ageing population, poor vaccine take up, ineffective sinovax vaccine. Expect china productivity to collapse again with shortages key components.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    darkhairedlord said:

    ddraver said:

    China is about to become the antivaxxers dream laboratory in the same way Truss made the UK the IEA's dream laboratory



    With similar results...
    They are well fxed, ageing population, poor vaccine take up, ineffective sinovax vaccine. Expect china productivity to collapse again with shortages key components.
    they will need millions to die to catch us up % wise.

    They can't hide behind their sofas forever
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Remarkable reluctance to just buy western vaccines and stick it in em.

    They can go and commit genocide, arrest anyone at a moment's notice, but when it comes to injections to save lives it's too far?

    Moronic.
    _
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    rick_chasey said:

    Remarkable reluctance to just buy western vaccines and stick it in em.

    They can go and commit genocide, arrest anyone at a moment's notice, but when it comes to injections to save lives it's too far?

    Moronic.

    Is sinovac that bad? From what I've read it gives more side effects but as its a conventional deactivated virus the jury is still out as to whether it might actually induce a broader longer lasting immune response, even if the headline figures are lower than the Mrna ones.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Something seems to mean they're back in 2020 territory when it comes to "flattening the curve" and worrying about spikes in deaths if they don't lockdown.

    So if it's not Sinovac, then what is it? Lack of uptake? I find the latter hard to believe for such an authoritarian regime who thinks nothing of genocide.
    _
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    rick_chasey said:

    Something seems to mean they're back in 2020 territory when it comes to "flattening the curve" and worrying about spikes in deaths if they don't lockdown.

    So if it's not Sinovac, then what is it? Lack of uptake? I find the latter hard to believe for such an authoritarian regime who thinks nothing of genocide.

    It is low uptake, particularly amongst the elderly. Remember there is a strong following for traditional medicine there, and suspicion of modern medicine.

    I have also heard some criticism of the roll out strategy focusing on the wrong demographics. Probably the work force, let's face it.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    unvaxxed people in the UK are not dying at alarming rates
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,660
    First 2 doses the uptake isn't actually that bad, according to the thread DD posted.



    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    surrey_commuter said:

    unvaxxed people in the UK are not dying at alarming rates

    Is this a serious comment?
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    First.Aspect said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    unvaxxed people in the UK are not dying at alarming rates

    Is this a serious comment?
    yes, but also a sort of question.

    Is there a reason why they will die in higher % than over here?
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    Lower levels of either infection acquired or vaccine acquired immunity. If they open up fully now they will be in the harvesting phase still. Omicron is less pathogenic, but the big % mortaljty differences we see now compared to 2020 and 2021 are because of high population immunity levels that suppress serious illness and worse.
  • photonic69
    photonic69 Posts: 2,962
    Two people at work both recovering from recent, unrelated infections. They both are vaccinated and both got it pretty badly.


    Sometimes. Maybe. Possibly.

  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    First.Aspect said:

    Lower levels of either infection acquired or vaccine acquired immunity. If they open up fully now they will be in the harvesting phase still. Omicron is less pathogenic, but the big % mortaljty differences we see now compared to 2020 and 2021 are because of high population immunity levels that suppress serious illness and worse.

    I think that makes sense (to a non scientist) but I thought the latest variants were a lot less serious. I assume places like NZ have a high vaccination rate but does the anti vaccine community with no acquired immunity have high mortality rates.
  • N0bodyOfTheGoat
    N0bodyOfTheGoat Posts: 6,065
    Stop the press, UK is going to join the sensible bandwagon of testing Chinese arrivals! :o

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64130655
    ================
    2020 Voodoo Marasa
    2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
    2016 Voodoo Wazoo
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,269
    N0bodyOfTheGoat said:

    Stop the press, UK is going to join the sensible bandwagon of testing Chinese arrivals! :o

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64130655

    But... but... what about the risk to the world beating, post Brexshit pork deal?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,811
    XBB 1.5 sounds fun.

    Not.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,700
    Bloomin eck, I've never heard so much bronchial coughing, spluttering and sniffing as I heard today on the train and plane. If i don't go down with something in the next week it'll be a miracle.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,227
    Woman from the Telegraph on 5live this morning moaning about the advice for people who are ill and need to go out to consider wearing a mask.

    I wonder how these people deal with signs that say "please wash your hands" or "look both ways before crossing". It must be a life full of anger.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,592
    kingstongraham said:

    Woman from the Telegraph on 5live this morning moaning about the advice for people who are ill and need to go out to consider wearing a mask.

    I wonder how these people deal with signs that say "please wash your hands" or "look both ways before crossing". It must be a life full of anger.

    I heard them talking to the Shadow Health Secretary on Breakfast about this and they said to her 'the papers aren't happy about advice to wear a face mask'. My response would have been 'who the f**k cares what the papers think about it?'. It's only advice and not a requirement, we get health advice all the time. It's amazing how quickly some people have forgotten how bad things were 2/3 years ago. I know we have the vaccine now which is the single most important measure but did think people might have developed the ability to consider the impact they can have on the health of others. That said, I was always very cynical when people were talking of how the impact of the pandemic in the early stages was going to change people's behaviour and make them kinder so I'm not sure why I'm surprised!

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