The big Coronavirus thread

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  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Jezyboy said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    Imagine how I feel! Having to admit that Boris might have got it right 🤣.

    Correlation is not causation - for all we know it could have been even worse in Wales & Scotland had it not been for the restrictions, and would go some way to explain why they went for the restrictions to begin with.
    No, I don't think so, with the possible exception of mark mandate a few weeks earlier.

    That might have helped because people hide indoors here earlier in the year.

    But overall I don't see much in the data across the UK that can't be explained by factors other than all of the political posturing and "local differecism" that's gone on.

    As per my admission about the differences in France (pass sanitaire etc) making BA difference in omicron's ability to spread. Short of really restricting people's ability to meet others, all the other mitigations seem to be window dressing with this variant, as evidenced by the graphs for infections: you can see just where omicron takes over.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    rick_chasey said:

    What is the evidence that the additional restrictions in Wales & Scotland made it *worse*?

    i mean, we have a huge amount of evidence that restrictions do bring the R rate down.

    None, but that's the same point isn't it?

    The policies across the UK were broadly similar, other than the minor differences that the local politicians over emphasised. Hence, the outcomes were broadly similar, other than differences that can be accounted for by demographics or geography.

    Despite having powers to do so, and despite all the posturing, the SNP weren't brave enough to do anything radically different than Boris. Why? Because if it didn't work, they'd take the blame.

    Instead, they fiddled around the edges and took undue credit when the Scottish numbers looked a bit better (eg when the school holidays started sooner) and went quiet when things turned around.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    If you want an example of how twisted the vocal anti-vaxxers are:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-59896688

    Weird, a Brexit Party wannabe MP makes it into the report. Whodda thunkit?
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,605
    rick_chasey said:

    What is the evidence that the additional restrictions in Wales & Scotland made it *worse*?

    i mean, we have a huge amount of evidence that restrictions do bring the R rate down.

    FWIW my position with Boris getting it "right" isn't because I see Wales and Scotland as doing materially worse in terms of Covid numbers.

    It's that Wales and Scotland have introduced what are economically and socially harmful measures for no material benefit.

  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Jezyboy said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    Imagine how I feel! Having to admit that Boris might have got it right 🤣.

    Correlation is not causation - for all we know it could have been even worse in Wales & Scotland had it not been for the restrictions, and would go some way to explain why they went for the restrictions to begin with.
    No, I don't think so, with the possible exception of mark mandate a few weeks earlier.

    That might have helped because people hide indoors here earlier in the year.

    But overall I don't see much in the data across the UK that can't be explained by factors other than all of the political posturing and "local differecism" that's gone on.

    As per my admission about the differences in France (pass sanitaire etc) making BA difference in omicron's ability to spread. Short of really restricting people's ability to meet others, all the other mitigations seem to be window dressing with this variant, as evidenced by the graphs for infections: you can see just where omicron takes over.

    Spoke to a friend this morning who spent Xmas and NY in France (she’s French, lives in London). She was telling me that a huge proportion of her friends in France either currently have or have had Covid in the past month, and that as you’ve said before clearly the pass sanitaire is as useful as a wet paper bag when it comes to stopping infections (though may be forcing people to be vaccinated).

    Incidentally, she hardly met up with anyone while over there - stayed with an elderly grandmother- but when she got back to England found she’d caught Covid. She’s convinced she could only have caught it when she went to a pharmacy to have the pre-travel PCR test, as that’s the only time when she mingled with others and everyone else at the pharmacy were having PCRs because they had symptoms.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    Good news.

    NHS England has this morning published its latest “primary diagnosis” supplement. This is a dataset that shows how many of the daily Covid hospital cases are patients being treated in hospital for Covid, and how many are patients with Covid being treated primary for something else.

    The hospital figures that are published daily do not make this distinction

    The latest figure is for Tuesday 4 January and it shows that in England 13,045 patients were in hospital with Covid on that day, but only 8,200 for Covid. That means only 63% of Covid cases were in hospital primary because of Covid.

    This figures has been drifting down. The equivalent figure for the previous Tuesday, when total Covid cases were 8,321, was 67%, and the Tuesday before that, when overall cases were 6,245, 71% of them were people being treated primary for Covid. At the start of December the figure was 74%.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jan/07/uk-covid-news-military-hospital-coronavirus-boris-johnson-latest-updates
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    kingstonian said:

    Pross said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    I am trying to imagine - maybe something like this?


    Weren't some of the restrictions the sort that encouraged the spread e.g. don't watch sport outside, better do it down the pub.
    Yep, lunacy - I can't do a Parkrun in Wales but can jump on a train with hundreds of others to do one in England or can go to busy shops and sit in a crowded cafe on a Saturday morning instead.

    To be fair, the numbers do also probably reflect that the peak in England has finished whilst in the other nations it is only just arriving. What were the numbers in England like per 100,000 at their worst or are they still rising too?

    I had hoped today's update would realise the 'more stringent' rules aren't helping and would be dropped, feared that they would actually bring in more restrictions but they've just left them unchanged apparently.

    Yeah, the situation with a Parkrun is baffling. Defies all logic.

    From a brief glance at the data yesterday it looks like the wave of infections in London/SE England is on the way down and it is now spreading across the rest of the country, with it indeed looking like we may have already seen the peak across the country as a whole.
    It's not just parkrun - the whole 'max 30 people indoors' thing has no basis in science, or logic as far as I can tell. The national track champs are due to take place at Newport Velodrome at the end of January, so at this rate they will likely either be postponed or moved. Ironically, the 'Icebreakers', which is a nationally-attended youth track series, can go ahead with more than 30 people indoors because youth sport is exempt. Fking ridiculous.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    Thanks for sharing, that is indeed good news. Can’t quite understand why the govnt site doesn’t make this distinction.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Jezyboy said:

    rick_chasey said:

    What is the evidence that the additional restrictions in Wales & Scotland made it *worse*?

    i mean, we have a huge amount of evidence that restrictions do bring the R rate down.

    FWIW my position with Boris getting it "right" isn't because I see Wales and Scotland as doing materially worse in terms of Covid numbers.

    It's that Wales and Scotland have introduced what are economically and socially harmful measures for no material benefit.

    Jezyboy said:

    rick_chasey said:

    What is the evidence that the additional restrictions in Wales & Scotland made it *worse*?

    i mean, we have a huge amount of evidence that restrictions do bring the R rate down.

    FWIW my position with Boris getting it "right" isn't because I see Wales and Scotland as doing materially worse in terms of Covid numbers.

    It's that Wales and Scotland have introduced what are economically and socially harmful measures for no material benefit.

    I guess it is more harmful if the restrictions stopped more behaviour than would have happened naturally anyway.
    _
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    kingstonian said:

    Thanks for sharing, that is indeed good news. Can’t quite understand why the govnt site doesn’t make this distinction.


    I think that data is only just now available.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    edited January 2022
    briantrumpet said:

    kingstonian said:

    Thanks for sharing, that is indeed good news. Can’t quite understand why the govnt site doesn’t make this distinction.


    I think that data is only just now available.
    Its in the governments interest to keep people concerned.
    They think if they tell you its ok everyone will just go back to normal.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    kingstonian said:

    Pross said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    I am trying to imagine - maybe something like this?


    Weren't some of the restrictions the sort that encouraged the spread e.g. don't watch sport outside, better do it down the pub.
    Yep, lunacy - I can't do a Parkrun in Wales but can jump on a train with hundreds of others to do one in England or can go to busy shops and sit in a crowded cafe on a Saturday morning instead.

    To be fair, the numbers do also probably reflect that the peak in England has finished whilst in the other nations it is only just arriving. What were the numbers in England like per 100,000 at their worst or are they still rising too?

    I had hoped today's update would realise the 'more stringent' rules aren't helping and would be dropped, feared that they would actually bring in more restrictions but they've just left them unchanged apparently.

    Yeah, the situation with a Parkrun is baffling. Defies all logic.

    From a brief glance at the data yesterday it looks like the wave of infections in London/SE England is on the way down and it is now spreading across the rest of the country, with it indeed looking like we may have already seen the peak across the country as a whole.
    Well these restrictions are having an effect…… just not the one he was naively hoping for. I just walked my Main Street for the first time since Christmas and what do I find? Several shops that survived last winter with furlong help now have closure notices. Several others just haven’t reopened.

    Keeping some folks safe maybe but now it’s being paid for by individual’s livelihoods.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    blazing_saddles said:

    kingstonian said:

    Pross said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    I am trying to imagine - maybe something like this?


    Weren't some of the restrictions the sort that encouraged the spread e.g. don't watch sport outside, better do it down the pub.
    Yep, lunacy - I can't do a Parkrun in Wales but can jump on a train with hundreds of others to do one in England or can go to busy shops and sit in a crowded cafe on a Saturday morning instead.

    To be fair, the numbers do also probably reflect that the peak in England has finished whilst in the other nations it is only just arriving. What were the numbers in England like per 100,000 at their worst or are they still rising too?

    I had hoped today's update would realise the 'more stringent' rules aren't helping and would be dropped, feared that they would actually bring in more restrictions but they've just left them unchanged apparently.

    Yeah, the situation with a Parkrun is baffling. Defies all logic.

    From a brief glance at the data yesterday it looks like the wave of infections in London/SE England is on the way down and it is now spreading across the rest of the country, with it indeed looking like we may have already seen the peak across the country as a whole.
    Well these restrictions are having an effect…… just not the one he was naively hoping for. I just walked my Main Street for the first time since Christmas and what do I find? Several shops that survived last winter with furlong help now have closure notices. Several others just haven’t reopened.

    Keeping some folks safe maybe but now it’s being paid for by individual’s livelihoods.

    Out of interest, where are you based?
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    kingstonian said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    kingstonian said:

    Pross said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    I am trying to imagine - maybe something like this?


    Weren't some of the restrictions the sort that encouraged the spread e.g. don't watch sport outside, better do it down the pub.
    Yep, lunacy - I can't do a Parkrun in Wales but can jump on a train with hundreds of others to do one in England or can go to busy shops and sit in a crowded cafe on a Saturday morning instead.

    To be fair, the numbers do also probably reflect that the peak in England has finished whilst in the other nations it is only just arriving. What were the numbers in England like per 100,000 at their worst or are they still rising too?

    I had hoped today's update would realise the 'more stringent' rules aren't helping and would be dropped, feared that they would actually bring in more restrictions but they've just left them unchanged apparently.

    Yeah, the situation with a Parkrun is baffling. Defies all logic.

    From a brief glance at the data yesterday it looks like the wave of infections in London/SE England is on the way down and it is now spreading across the rest of the country, with it indeed looking like we may have already seen the peak across the country as a whole.
    Well these restrictions are having an effect…… just not the one he was naively hoping for. I just walked my Main Street for the first time since Christmas and what do I find? Several shops that survived last winter with furlong help now have closure notices. Several others just haven’t reopened.

    Keeping some folks safe maybe but now it’s being paid for by individual’s livelihoods.

    Out of interest, where are you based?
    Right on the Powys, Monmouthshire, Blaenau Gwent border.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    blazing_saddles said:

    kingstonian said:

    blazing_saddles said:

    kingstonian said:

    Pross said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    I am trying to imagine - maybe something like this?


    Weren't some of the restrictions the sort that encouraged the spread e.g. don't watch sport outside, better do it down the pub.
    Yep, lunacy - I can't do a Parkrun in Wales but can jump on a train with hundreds of others to do one in England or can go to busy shops and sit in a crowded cafe on a Saturday morning instead.

    To be fair, the numbers do also probably reflect that the peak in England has finished whilst in the other nations it is only just arriving. What were the numbers in England like per 100,000 at their worst or are they still rising too?

    I had hoped today's update would realise the 'more stringent' rules aren't helping and would be dropped, feared that they would actually bring in more restrictions but they've just left them unchanged apparently.

    Yeah, the situation with a Parkrun is baffling. Defies all logic.

    From a brief glance at the data yesterday it looks like the wave of infections in London/SE England is on the way down and it is now spreading across the rest of the country, with it indeed looking like we may have already seen the peak across the country as a whole.
    Well these restrictions are having an effect…… just not the one he was naively hoping for. I just walked my Main Street for the first time since Christmas and what do I find? Several shops that survived last winter with furlong help now have closure notices. Several others just haven’t reopened.

    Keeping some folks safe maybe but now it’s being paid for by individual’s livelihoods.

    Out of interest, where are you based?
    Right on the Powys, Monmouthshire, Blaenau Gwent border.
    Ok, thanks.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Something that might have helped would have been this: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/why-you-should-upgrade-your-face-mask-to-an-n95.html

    I've been using an FFP2 mask - more than anything, if I get a decent fit across the nose, it actually doesn't steam up my glasses.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915
    kingstongraham said:

    Something that might have helped would have been this: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/why-you-should-upgrade-your-face-mask-to-an-n95.html

    I've been using an FFP2 mask - more than anything, if I get a decent fit across the nose, it actually doesn't steam up my glasses.

    I've only ever used those, but I do reuse them, so that probably isn't the best.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    kingstongraham said:

    Something that might have helped would have been this: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/why-you-should-upgrade-your-face-mask-to-an-n95.html

    I've been using an FFP2 mask - more than anything, if I get a decent fit across the nose, it actually doesn't steam up my glasses.



    He lays it out so clearly and simply. I agree that even this long into the pandemic it is unbelievable how few people fully understand the rights and wrongs of this.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Something that might have helped would have been this: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/why-you-should-upgrade-your-face-mask-to-an-n95.html

    I've been using an FFP2 mask - more than anything, if I get a decent fit across the nose, it actually doesn't steam up my glasses.

    I've only ever used those, but I do reuse them, so that probably isn't the best.
    I've read a couple of articles that say it's fine to reuse then as long as you aren't in a medical setting.

    That link says it's fine, but not for how long because nobody has researched it.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,398
    Jezyboy said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Imagine how bad it would have been.
    Imagine how I feel! Having to admit that Boris might have got it right 🤣.

    You are not alone in Cake Stop :)
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Over what period of time is that ?
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    tailwindhome said:

    kingstongraham said:

    The extra restrictions look to have done as well as expected.


    Over what period of time is that ?
    7 days to 31st Dec based on date of test. All four are currently at their highest number and increasing.

    I checked and the highest London got to was 2,038 for 7 days to the 23rd.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    Whilst I think the Welsh rules are ridiculous for outdoor events I'm not sure why Chester FC are saying it's a complex situation that they are being told they're breaching Covid restrictions by not playing behind closed doors. Their pitch and stands are entirely within Wales, they're arguing that as most of their supporters live in England the English rules should apply.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915
    Pross said:

    Whilst I think the Welsh rules are ridiculous for outdoor events I'm not sure why Chester FC are saying it's a complex situation that they are being told they're breaching Covid restrictions by not playing behind closed doors. Their pitch and stands are entirely within Wales, they're arguing that as most of their supporters live in England the English rules should apply.

    They should hire some indoor venues in England and show the game on big screens to fans.
  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    Pross said:

    Whilst I think the Welsh rules are ridiculous for outdoor events I'm not sure why Chester FC are saying it's a complex situation that they are being told they're breaching Covid restrictions by not playing behind closed doors. Their pitch and stands are entirely within Wales, they're arguing that as most of their supporters live in England the English rules should apply.

    Using that same logic, people from England should be able to go to nightclubs in Wales, even though they are shut.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    France have now officially added the <24h transit-through-France to their exemptions.

    Now just that other little matter... fingers crossed that that happens next week.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    briantrumpet said:

    France have now officially added the <24h transit-through-France to their exemptions.

    Now just that other little matter... fingers crossed that that happens next week.</p>

    Excellent, so Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and James May will still be able to drive from the Top Gear test track to Monaco in three supercars from the 1980s bought with a £5k budget.

    Awesome.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,559
    briantrumpet said:

    France have now officially added the <24h transit-through-France to their exemptions.

    Now just that other little matter... fingers crossed that that happens next week.</p>

    Don't you need to see a builder to obtain a quote for something?
  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    Pross said:

    Whilst I think the Welsh rules are ridiculous for outdoor events I'm not sure why Chester FC are saying it's a complex situation that they are being told they're breaching Covid restrictions by not playing behind closed doors. Their pitch and stands are entirely within Wales, they're arguing that as most of their supporters live in England the English rules should apply.

    Who really gives a hoot ?Surely no one in Wales actually cares if an English football team has a crowd. If they do its only because that pillock banned Welsh crowds in Welsh stadiums.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    Dorset_Boy said:

    briantrumpet said:

    France have now officially added the <24h transit-through-France to their exemptions.

    Now just that other little matter... fingers crossed that that happens next week.</p>

    Don't you need to see a builder to obtain a quote for something?

    Well, I have got an official letter from my mairie saying I've got an old house that needs essential work... 🤔

    But still reckon Macron will fold on the 16th, or whenever it is that his current decree runs out.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois

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