The big Coronavirus thread

TheBigBean

The article is here if anyone wants to read it.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220103082328/https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/which-economies-have-done-best-and-worst-during-the-pandemic/21806917

I've made the point before that the way some items are calculated e.g. GDP impact of closed schools varies by country and is therefore not considered.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

I am not the author of the article nor the table.

That's so out of character.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

I am not the author of the article nor the table.

That's so out of character.

New year's resolutions and all that. Not gonna defend the content of stuff other people have written if I post it for general interest.

kingstonian

Can Ireland’s GDP really have grown 22.3% during the pandemic? Or am I reading the chart wrongly? Seems implausible to me.

Or are they now counting Northern Ireland in that number which may explain why “Britain” and not “UK” is referred to in the chart.

kingstonian

I spoke with someone a few days ago that had decided they didn’t like the word used for the new variant and instead was calling it the Omnibus - quite like that, tbh.

Dorset_Boy

And the ranking will be based on what weighting is given to the different metrics, so easy to manipulate to get the answer wanted. Also really not sure UK share prices fell over the last year.

rjsterry

kingstonian said:

I spoke with someone a few days ago that had decided they didn’t like the word used for the new variant and instead was calling it the Omnibus - quite like that, tbh.

People calling it Omnicron is like fingernails down a blackboard.

orraloon

Should be Opicron, given Opi is before Omi. Allez!

Stevo_666

Given French rates of infection, maybe they should call it Omacron.

rick_chasey

Dorset_Boy said:

And the ranking will be based on what weighting is given to the different metrics, so easy to manipulate to get the answer wanted. Also really not sure UK share prices fell over the last year.

In dollar terms they did. UK equities are the worst performing amongst Western developed equity markets (Europe, US, Japan, Aus) - and has been since 2016.

Hence firms like Jupiter getting absolutely hammered (as their main strategies are UK equity strategies).

Dorset_Boy

Hmm, FTSE All Share Index is up a fraction under 15% in the last 12 months.
Sterling vs Dollar has been steady (1.0=1.35 vs 1.0-1.36)

Guess the economist was cherry picking their dates.

orraloon

Dorset_Boy said:

Hmm, FTSE All Share Index is up a fraction under 15% in the last 12 months.
Sterling vs Dollar has been steady (1.0=1.35 vs 1.0-1.36)

Guess the economist was cherry picking their dates.

Or their stocks, given the nature of FTSE100 and also 350 stocks.

briantrumpet

The Guardian reporting of daily figures is still a mess, post-Christmas. More breathless reporting of 'record-breaking', but then admitting it's because of backlogs of data being reported, and actually, it's below the peak of NYD.

There will no doubt be a cry of 'record breaking' over tomorrow's deaths, but that'll because today's are artificially low. It's no wonder people get confused.

Confirmed daily Covid cases in the UK have hit another record high, with 218,724 reported in the past 24 hours.

The latest case figures – which reflect infections picked up by testing – continue to be affected by disruptions over Christmas, with figures for Northern Ireland covering a four-day period, and for Wales covering a two-day period.

However, the data shows that 148,725 cases were reported on Tuesday for England alone, up from 137,541 the day before, but below the peak of 162,572 reported on New Year’s Day. These figures do not include cases that are reinfections.

Jezyboy

Booster rate seems to have stalled somewhat, although I guess they've possibly run out of willing arms to shove vaccine into.

I wonder how case numbers will be impacted by the apparent test shortage. Presumably some are ending up testing later than they otherwise would have planned, and when this is combined with the delay in reporting, the uncertainty is going to be fairly chunky.

kingstonian

Jezyboy said:

Booster rate seems to have stalled somewhat, although I guess they've possibly run out of willing arms to shove vaccine into.

I wonder how case numbers will be impacted by the apparent test shortage. Presumably some are ending up testing later than they otherwise would have planned, and when this is combined with the delay in reporting, the uncertainty is going to be fairly chunky.

There’ll also be quite a few that can’t yet have the booster, either because they recently had Covid or their booster jab isn’t yet due.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

The Guardian reporting of daily figures is still a mess, post-Christmas. More breathless reporting of 'record-breaking', but then admitting it's because of backlogs of data being reported, and actually, it's below the peak of NYD.

There will no doubt be a cry of 'record breaking' over tomorrow's deaths, but that'll because today's are artificially low. It's no wonder people get confused.

Confirmed daily Covid cases in the UK have hit another record high, with 218,724 reported in the past 24 hours.

The latest case figures – which reflect infections picked up by testing – continue to be affected by disruptions over Christmas, with figures for Northern Ireland covering a four-day period, and for Wales covering a two-day period.

However, the data shows that 148,725 cases were reported on Tuesday for England alone, up from 137,541 the day before, but below the peak of 162,572 reported on New Year’s Day. These figures do not include cases that are reinfections.

There could be an ulterior motive for them reporting in this way, as they can then follow up with articles blaming the Tories for 'not doing enough'.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

The Guardian reporting of daily figures is still a mess, post-Christmas. More breathless reporting of 'record-breaking', but then admitting it's because of backlogs of data being reported, and actually, it's below the peak of NYD.

There will no doubt be a cry of 'record breaking' over tomorrow's deaths, but that'll because today's are artificially low. It's no wonder people get confused.

Confirmed daily Covid cases in the UK have hit another record high, with 218,724 reported in the past 24 hours.

The latest case figures – which reflect infections picked up by testing – continue to be affected by disruptions over Christmas, with figures for Northern Ireland covering a four-day period, and for Wales covering a two-day period.

However, the data shows that 148,725 cases were reported on Tuesday for England alone, up from 137,541 the day before, but below the peak of 162,572 reported on New Year’s Day. These figures do not include cases that are reinfections.

There could be an ulterior motive for them reporting in this way, as they can then follow up with articles blaming the Tories for 'not doing enough'.

No, don't think so, it's just a mess. Though they will probably do that too.

I would note the the Telegraph is not sure how to report it at the moment either... one minute saying that schoolchildren are being "forced" back into masks and that the scientists will be proved wrong, and the next minute fretting that there are record numbers of infections and hospitals are buckling.

None of the media is terribly good at this, given that their underlying principle is to sell papers to/get clicks from their target market.

The one person who's been fairly sensible has been Phil Hammond in Private Eye. Not always made the right call, but able to enlighten, and admits he doesn't have all the answers, and has got it wrong sometimes.

First.Aspect

I find it really sad when you only find out that a politician is intelligent and thoughtful after they've left front line politics, because these traits are such a disadvantage when they are still there.

Pross

First.Aspect said:

I find it really sad when you only find out that a politician is intelligent and thoughtful after they've left front line politics, because these traits are such a disadvantage when they are still there.

I think it was fairly clear with him all along. That's the reason he wasn't PM. It seems people will no longer vote for those traits as they are 'boring'.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

The Guardian reporting of daily figures is still a mess, post-Christmas. More breathless reporting of 'record-breaking', but then admitting it's because of backlogs of data being reported, and actually, it's below the peak of NYD.

There will no doubt be a cry of 'record breaking' over tomorrow's deaths, but that'll because today's are artificially low. It's no wonder people get confused.

Confirmed daily Covid cases in the UK have hit another record high, with 218,724 reported in the past 24 hours.

The latest case figures – which reflect infections picked up by testing – continue to be affected by disruptions over Christmas, with figures for Northern Ireland covering a four-day period, and for Wales covering a two-day period.

However, the data shows that 148,725 cases were reported on Tuesday for England alone, up from 137,541 the day before, but below the peak of 162,572 reported on New Year’s Day. These figures do not include cases that are reinfections.

There could be an ulterior motive for them reporting in this way, as they can then follow up with articles blaming the Tories for 'not doing enough'.

No, don't think so, it's just a mess. Though they will probably do that too.

I would note the the Telegraph is not sure how to report it at the moment either... one minute saying that schoolchildren are being "forced" back into masks and that the scientists will be proved wrong, and the next minute fretting that there are record numbers of infections and hospitals are buckling.

None of the media is terribly good at this, given that their underlying principle is to sell papers to/get clicks from their target market.

The one person who's been fairly sensible has been Phil Hammond in Private Eye. Not always made the right call, but able to enlighten, and admits he doesn't have all the answers, and has got it wrong sometimes.

There is a lot of inconsistenfy in the reporting. Nobody has a crystal ball but most think or pretend that they do.

Mad_Malx

rick_chasey said:

I guess in a world where there was remarkably little global co-ordination between governments (which, lucky for them, relied on fairly good global co-ordination between private firms...), national league tables are a thing.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/which-economies-have-done-best-and-worst-during-the-pandemic/21806917


</blockquote

What’s going on in Ireland - GDP +++, investment ——- ?


Edit - always check the timestamp before replying!

rjsterry

About as comprehensive and accessible an overview as you could ask for of where we are nationally and internationally. A long thread by the always excellent John Burn-Murdoch.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1478339769646166019?t=wJFwo6ieu-JINzS8b7h7bw&amp;s=19

rick_chasey

I know charts are very much *the thing* for the FT but they have really crushed the reporting of the pandemic.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

I know charts are very much *the thing* for the FT but they have really crushed the reporting of the pandemic.

Yes it's a very good discussion and shows how actually having a critical assessment of stats is important to understand the pandemic.

Unfortunately I would estimate that thread is beyond the comprehension and/or patience of about 85% of the adult population.

Graphs = please may I be excused, my brain is full.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

I know charts are very much *the thing* for the FT but they have really crushed the reporting of the pandemic.

Yes it's a very good discussion and shows how actually having a critical assessment of stats is important to understand the pandemic.

Unfortunately I would estimate that thread is beyond the comprehension and/or patience of about 85% of the adult population.

Graphs = please may I be excused, my brain is full.

Deep down all FT readers know FT readers are elite .

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

I know charts are very much *the thing* for the FT but they have really crushed the reporting of the pandemic.

Yes it's a very good discussion and shows how actually having a critical assessment of stats is important to understand the pandemic.

Unfortunately I would estimate that thread is beyond the comprehension and/or patience of about 85% of the adult population.

Graphs = please may I be excused, my brain is full.

Deep down all FT readers know FT readers are elite .

🙈

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

I know charts are very much *the thing* for the FT but they have really crushed the reporting of the pandemic.

Yes it's a very good discussion and shows how actually having a critical assessment of stats is important to understand the pandemic.

Unfortunately I would estimate that thread is beyond the comprehension and/or patience of about 85% of the adult population.

Graphs = please may I be excused, my brain is full.

Deep down all FT readers know FT readers are elite .

Deep down all FT readers think FT readers are elite

rick_chasey

rick_chasey

Quite interesting, just had a candidate binned off because he was 'too risk averse' - wouldn't meet the firm in question inside, or in restaurants etc, took the car to the interview (in the City) - "is he too risk averse for this sales role?"

rjsterry

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

I know charts are very much *the thing* for the FT but they have really crushed the reporting of the pandemic.

Yes it's a very good discussion and shows how actually having a critical assessment of stats is important to understand the pandemic.

Unfortunately I would estimate that thread is beyond the comprehension and/or patience of about 85% of the adult population.

Graphs = please may I be excused, my brain is full.

Everyone can get their head around "green line steeper than red line". Choosing the right graph and explaining clearly what it shows is critical.