The big Coronavirus thread

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  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Stevo_666 said:

    To borrow from what Surrey Commuter said a while back about the initial spread of Covid in Italy last year, we have a TV that allows us to see a few weeks into the future. We are now tuned into the South African channel and they are still broadcasting OK.

    It is strange isn’t it.

    My concern is that Boris is under huge pressure to do nothing (his natural inclination) yet is obviously looking at data that is making him sh1t himself.

    My hope that this is the beginning of the end as we will have seen off a wave without too much bother and we will be much closer to herd immunity
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    edited December 2021
    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    I'm sure I read earlier that the positive case numbers don't include those who have previously tested positive, so with the substantially higher number of reinfections with Omicron, the real number of cases is probably higher than the official stats. Can't find it now.

    That's not correct. Stop looking, or you will just end up on a Daily Mail Twitter feed.
    I didn't stop looking to see where I read it. Twitter feed of an epidemiologist at the UKHSA (who produce the numbers). Thread is worth a read.



  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    I'm sure I read earlier that the positive case numbers don't include those who have previously tested positive, so with the substantially higher number of reinfections with Omicron, the real number of cases is probably higher than the official stats. Can't find it now.

    That's not correct. Stop looking, or you will just end up on a Daily Mail Twitter feed.
    I didn't stop looking to see where I read it. Twitter feed of an epidemiologist at the UKHSA (who produce the numbers). Thread is worth a read.



    I think that reference is missing some vital context about what "reinfection" means in the numbers. She can't possibly mean that people who had it 18 months ago are excluded from the figures.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    To borrow from what Surrey Commuter said a while back about the initial spread of Covid in Italy last year, we have a TV that allows us to see a few weeks into the future. We are now tuned into the South African channel and they are still broadcasting OK.

    It is strange isn’t it.

    My concern is that Boris is under huge pressure to do nothing (his natural inclination) yet is obviously looking at data that is making him censored himself.

    My hope that this is the beginning of the end as we will have seen off a wave without too much bother and we will be much closer to herd immunity
    Is it worth mentioning the restrictions in South Africa that shut pubs at 11pm, have a curfew between midnight and 4am, close nightclubs and restrict indoor gatherings to 750 and outdoor to 2,000? Kind of Drakeford style, isn't it?

    It's good news though apart from the big numbers of infections. If we reckon it's generally benign, should we get rid of the mandatory isolation period and let people make their own minds up according to their risk level and concern for infecting others? Makes sense.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    kingstongraham said:

    It's good news though apart from the big numbers of infections.


    On an overall public health analysis, actually the big numbers of infections might well be good news.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    I'm sure I read earlier that the positive case numbers don't include those who have previously tested positive, so with the substantially higher number of reinfections with Omicron, the real number of cases is probably higher than the official stats. Can't find it now.

    That's not correct. Stop looking, or you will just end up on a Daily Mail Twitter feed.
    I didn't stop looking to see where I read it. Twitter feed of an epidemiologist at the UKHSA (who produce the numbers). Thread is worth a read.



    I think that reference is missing some vital context about what "reinfection" means in the numbers. She can't possibly mean that people who had it 18 months ago are excluded from the figures.
    If they were lucky/unlucky enough to get a positive PCR test back then, I think it does mean that. Obviously if they were never registered as a positive test when they were infected (like me), then that will be picked up as a new case.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

    (It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)
    Anything wrong with 'rapid'? I don't much care for metaphors whose imagery is flawed. Incidentally, it's a relatively modern coinage.



    Aaaargh, it's not flawed: you've just misunderstood. Meteorites do move really fast, do they not?
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

    (It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)
    Anything wrong with 'rapid'? I don't much care for metaphors whose imagery is flawed. Incidentally, it's a relatively modern coinage.



    Aaaargh, it's not flawed: you've just misunderstood. Meteorites do move really fast, do they not?
    Why doesn't anything go meteoric in a different direction then?
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

    (It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)
    Anything wrong with 'rapid'? I don't much care for metaphors whose imagery is flawed. Incidentally, it's a relatively modern coinage.



    Aaaargh, it's not flawed: you've just misunderstood. Meteorites do move really fast, do they not?
    But they don't upwards. No-one ever says 'Meteoric fall' though, which (to me) suggests that its use in the more common phrase is nonsensical, as it doesn't add meaning or make it easier to conceptualise.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    edited December 2021
    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    I'm sure I read earlier that the positive case numbers don't include those who have previously tested positive, so with the substantially higher number of reinfections with Omicron, the real number of cases is probably higher than the official stats. Can't find it now.

    That's not correct. Stop looking, or you will just end up on a Daily Mail Twitter feed.
    I didn't stop looking to see where I read it. Twitter feed of an epidemiologist at the UKHSA (who produce the numbers). Thread is worth a read.



    I think that reference is missing some vital context about what "reinfection" means in the numbers. She can't possibly mean that people who had it 18 months ago are excluded from the figures.
    Why not? PCR tests are all uniquely identified, and for obvious reasons each is linked to the details of the person in question. Until recently the system didn't need to allow for more than one test number to be assigned to a single person.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    Is that a Delta wave peaking there?


  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    To borrow from what Surrey Commuter said a while back about the initial spread of Covid in Italy last year, we have a TV that allows us to see a few weeks into the future. We are now tuned into the South African channel and they are still broadcasting OK.

    It is strange isn’t it.

    My concern is that Boris is under huge pressure to do nothing (his natural inclination) yet is obviously looking at data that is making him censored himself.

    My hope that this is the beginning of the end as we will have seen off a wave without too much bother and we will be much closer to herd immunity
    The thing is though, the vast majority of people contract Omicron get immunity which is great, until whenever a new strain emerges out of remit of the current vaccines be it weaker or stronger, and it's a merry go round again. Exactly the same as the flu, herd immunity will only help against a certain similar strain.

    I think it will eventually have to come down to vaccination of the vulnerable groups and not be so all encompassing of the general public, depending on the severity though.

    It's a case of living with a living Covid.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    Is that a Delta wave peaking there?



    I think that's what Dr JC is suggesting. France has also been going up for a while, but the omicron wave has only really just picked up (you can clearly see it on the cases graph)



    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915
    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    Is that a Delta wave peaking there?


    Arguably the benefit, and intention, of opening up in July.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited December 2021
    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    What's their vaccination/booster uptake been like?
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915
    edited December 2021
    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

    (It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)
    Anything wrong with 'rapid'? I don't much care for metaphors whose imagery is flawed. Incidentally, it's a relatively modern coinage.



    Aaaargh, it's not flawed: you've just misunderstood. Meteorites do move really fast, do they not?
    But they don't upwards. No-one ever says 'Meteoric fall' though, which (to me) suggests that its use in the more common phrase is nonsensical, as it doesn't add meaning or make it easier to conceptualise.
    Meteoric also means "Of or relating to the earth's atmosphere."

    Also, we could do with a thread on Brian's language complaints.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Weird numbers on this then.


  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    TheBigBean said:

    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

    (It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)
    Anything wrong with 'rapid'? I don't much care for metaphors whose imagery is flawed. Incidentally, it's a relatively modern coinage.



    Aaaargh, it's not flawed: you've just misunderstood. Meteorites do move really fast, do they not?
    But they don't upwards. No-one ever says 'Meteoric fall' though, which (to me) suggests that its use in the more common phrase is nonsensical, as it doesn't add meaning or make it easier to conceptualise.
    Meteoric also means "Of or relating to the earth's atmosphere."

    Also, we could do with a thread on Brian's language complaints.

    Good point, as in 'meteorology', though that doesn't make the cliché any more apposite.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    focuszing723 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    What's their vaccination/booster uptake been like?
    Better on double vaxx not sure about booster.
    _
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,407
    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    To borrow from what Surrey Commuter said a while back about the initial spread of Covid in Italy last year, we have a TV that allows us to see a few weeks into the future. We are now tuned into the South African channel and they are still broadcasting OK.

    It is strange isn’t it.

    My concern is that Boris is under huge pressure to do nothing (his natural inclination) yet is obviously looking at data that is making him censored himself.

    My hope that this is the beginning of the end as we will have seen off a wave without too much bother and we will be much closer to herd immunity
    As has been said above will become endemic if future variants keep up this level of infectiousness and we'll just have to live with it. As we do with flu which kills thousands every year.
    Fortunately the evolutionary propensity to become milder seems to be happening - its not in the interests of any parasite to kill the host.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    What's their vaccination/booster uptake been like?
    Better on double vaxx not sure about booster.
    It does seem to be the boosters which count.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    What's their vaccination/booster uptake been like?
    Better on double vaxx not sure about booster.
    Behind.


    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    New data from Britain suggests that booster protection against symptomatic Covid caused by the Omicron variant wanes within 10 weeks.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection-omicron.html

    I don't know if the reports are true, but the boosters protection wears off over time. So, people who had theirs early on may require another booster.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    focuszing723 said:

    New data from Britain suggests that booster protection against symptomatic Covid caused by the Omicron variant wanes within 10 weeks.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/23/health/booster-protection-omicron.html

    I don't know if the reports are true, but the boosters protection wears off over time. So, people who had theirs early on may require another booster.
    So far only showing as waning for mild infection.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    edited December 2021
    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    rjsterry said:

    briantrumpet said:

    The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

    (It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)
    Anything wrong with 'rapid'? I don't much care for metaphors whose imagery is flawed. Incidentally, it's a relatively modern coinage.



    Aaaargh, it's not flawed: you've just misunderstood. Meteorites do move really fast, do they not?
    But they don't upwards. No-one ever says 'Meteoric fall' though, which (to me) suggests that its use in the more common phrase is nonsensical, as it doesn't add meaning or make it easier to conceptualise.
    Think of a shooting star. It can appear to rise in the sky even if it is actually falling.

    Meteora in Greece is going to do your head in. :)
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    kingstongraham said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    To borrow from what Surrey Commuter said a while back about the initial spread of Covid in Italy last year, we have a TV that allows us to see a few weeks into the future. We are now tuned into the South African channel and they are still broadcasting OK.

    It is strange isn’t it.

    My concern is that Boris is under huge pressure to do nothing (his natural inclination) yet is obviously looking at data that is making him censored himself.

    My hope that this is the beginning of the end as we will have seen off a wave without too much bother and we will be much closer to herd immunity
    Is it worth mentioning the restrictions in South Africa that shut pubs at 11pm, have a curfew between midnight and 4am, close nightclubs and restrict indoor gatherings to 750 and outdoor to 2,000? Kind of Drakeford style, isn't it?

    It's good news though apart from the big numbers of infections. If we reckon it's generally benign, should we get rid of the mandatory isolation period and let people make their own minds up according to their risk level and concern for infecting others? Makes sense.
    I really struggle to see any benefit in shutting pubs at 11pm by which time people have been in them hours. Restricting numbers at events makes more sense but the reality is that in many cases they are no longer viable and simply get cancelled (you could argue that is the intent, get a lockdown without actually calling a lockdown).
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    On the subject of Drakeford, I see that in complete contradiction to recent restrictions, he is shutting down the booster program in Wales for Christmas.
    No jabs until the 27th.

    Balmy.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • N0bodyOfTheGoat
    N0bodyOfTheGoat Posts: 6,057
    blazing_saddles said:

    On the subject of Drakeford, I see that in complete contradiction to recent restrictions, he is shutting down the booster program in Wales for Christmas.
    No jabs until the 27th.

    Balmy.

    Jabbers deserve an Xmas break too!

    Not to mention it takes 1-3 weeks to get full benefit of booster, so in the grand scheme of things, anyone boostered after last weekend isn't going to get any/much benefit during Xmas week.
    ================
    2020 Voodoo Marasa
    2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
    2016 Voodoo Wazoo
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rick_chasey said:

    Holland is in bad shape. Hospitals **very** full even with a lockdown.

    Sadly it has been that way for some time. When we were there at the end of Oct they’d started sending some patients across to hospitals in Germany.

    My in laws felt that much of Holland was sleepwalking into another Covid wave. Certainly when we were there we were literally the only people wearing masks in shops and supermarkets.

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