The big Coronavirus thread

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

tailwindhome said:

PCR booked for tomorrow.
Expecting +ve confirmation on Xmas Day

Are you less confident about your March 2020 theory or just think you have it again?

Much less confident.
We seem just to have been lucky so far and that ran out
Wife & 3 boys were tested today - we'll see what that brings.

Daughter most likely caught it at uni but that would mean it did take 5 days to trigger a LFT. Also possible she didn't, came home, went to her coffee shop job and got infected there

Honestly though, who knows

We're all getting it eventually

First.Aspect

But already a bit better to get Omicron than an earlier variant? Plus better treatments available all the time. So I still vote for trying to delay getting it.

rjsterry

tailwindhome said:

PCR booked for tomorrow.
Expecting +ve confirmation on Xmas Day

Sorry to hear that TWH. Hope no serious symptoms.

First.Aspect

Was reading yesterday that Omicron is much better at infecting the upper airway and lungs, but less good at causeing the lung damage that blocks the alveoli and cause the really bad lung damage. Japanese study, iirc. (see what I did there?)

rick_chasey

If you remember correctly?

Ben6899

rick_chasey said:

If you remember correctly?

AFAIK

rick_chasey

From what I can see we’ve had gambles on each wave, two were wrong and one looks like it might be right.

The real question is are we interested in the right process or just the outcome, bearing in mind it could have gone the wrong way given the data available?

mully79

The problem with the data is that scientists dont have the kahunas to say definitely. Always "may, or could or if"
We knew right of the bat Omicron spreads easier, dodges the vaccine and develops faster in the airways but is less damaging to the lungs. Thats what the South African scientists said when they announced it.

mully79

Plus, you do realise Johnson is going to bottle it and throw in restrictions too late that wont have anywhere near the impact they could have done.

First.Aspect

mully79 said:

The problem with the data is that scientists dont have the kahunas to say definitely. Always "may, or could or if"
We knew right of the bat Omicron spreads easier, dodges the vaccine and develops faster in the airways but is less damaging to the lungs. Thats what the South African scientists said when they announced it.

Ever heard the phrase, "often wrong, never in doubt"?

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

From what I can see we’ve had gambles on each wave, two were wrong and one looks like it might be right.

The real question is are we interested in the right process or just the outcome, bearing in mind it could have gone the wrong way given the data available?

It will be very difficult to assess whether this happened by luck or judgement, I suspect. But I think the judgement in this one might well have been slightly better informed... at least we didn't have any of the hostage-to-fortune cräp about "irreversible" and similar hollow soundbites. Instead we had a bit of a debate about the balance of possibilities, with Javid not allowing the option to lockdown stuff to be ruled out by the 'but ma freedummm!' loons manipulating a weakened Johnson.

rick_chasey

It still hangs on the R rate.

If it’s still doubling every two days then it being 50% less severe means in two days you’re at the same hospitalisation level.

So I’d love some info on where the current R rate is as I don’t think it can be 3-5 unless testing is just maxed out

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

It still hangs on the R rate.

If it’s still doubling every two days then it being 50% less severe means in two days you’re at the same hospitalisation level.

So I’d love some info on where the current R rate is as I don’t think it can be 3-5 unless testing is just maxed out

Seems to think it's 1.5 in London at the moment, 1.2 elsewhere. But still optimistic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qzKh_S4Qs0

DeVlaeminck

tailwindhome said:

PCR booked for tomorrow.
Expecting +ve confirmation on Xmas Day

I was fully expecting to be positive a couple if days ago - had a headache all day, wife was positive... test came back negative, so you never know.

rick_chasey

I am a little concerned we might be at this point in the crisis



Last two waves testing limits were breached pretty early in the wave so where is the current limit?

kingstongraham

If 1 in 30 people tested positive in the last 7 days in lambeth, I can't see that being a 1.5 r rate, must be many more actually infected, but also can't see it lasting long.

Ben6899

mully79 said:

The problem with the data is that scientists dont have the kahunas to say definitely. Always "may, or could or if”.

That’s how much of science works. It’s theoretical.

kingstongraham

imposter2.0 said:

kingstongraham said:

imposter2.0 said:

kingstongraham said:

imposter2.0 said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

focuszing723 said:

Despite the positive evidence, I can understand why someone calling the shots wants to be "better safe than sorry" with regards the demands on essential services, especially if a reasonable amount of people throw caution to the wind.

I wouldn't want to make the call.

He's already been accused of lying about it:
https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/

And based on the evidence he looks to be factually incorrect at least.

What bothers you about politicians lying, Stevo?

It doesn't bother me what Drakeford says, but the Weslsh might.

Why might it bother them, Stevo?

The general feeling around here is that he has over-reached himself this time.

You don't think when the numbers go up, England will follow next week?

which numbers?

Cases, hospital admissions, deaths.

I just checked. Cases are up (obviously), but admissions are flat, as are ICU bed numbers. Deaths are falling. All based on 1xmonth data. When are you expecting the numbers to go up?

Even with the reduced severity of the omicron variant, these numbers WILL go up. It's unavoidable because of what they are. The deaths within 28 days of a positive test number will become pretty meaningless if there's 5 million people testing positive in that time. And the weekly ONS stats come a bit late to do anything with.

briantrumpet

The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

wallace_and_gromit

briantrumpet said:

The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

We're either all doomed or there will be a lot of eminent, media-friendly scientists with egg on their faces in early January.

Stevo_666

wallace_and_gromit said:

briantrumpet said:

The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

We're either all doomed or there will be a few eminent Cake Stoppers with egg on their faces in early January.

FTFY Wallace.

Jezyboy

rick_chasey said:

I am a little concerned we might be at this point in the crisis



Last two waves testing limits were breached pretty early in the wave so where is the current limit?

Last time I looked, the number of tests had shot up, and the positivity rate was staying relatively flat - and was less than other similar countries (ones with lower reported case rates).

briantrumpet

wallace_and_gromit said:

briantrumpet said:

The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

We're either all doomed or there will be a lot of eminent, media-friendly scientists with egg on their faces in early January.

Should I have egg on my face for spending lots of money over the years on buildings insurance against catastrophic loss, but my house not having fallen or burnt down (yet)?

Jezyboy

briantrumpet said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

briantrumpet said:

The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

We're either all doomed or there will be a lot of eminent, media-friendly scientists with egg on their faces in early January.

Should I have egg on my face for spending lots of money over the years on buildings insurance against catastrophic loss, but my house not having fallen or burnt down (yet)?

Depends, if you stretch the metaphor out, you could argue that (some covid measures) are like being so scared of the house burning down that you give up your job (and method of getting the money for the mortgage) to stand outside the house all day with a hose.

kingstongraham

I'm sure I read earlier that the positive case numbers don't include those who have previously tested positive, so with the substantially higher number of reinfections with Omicron, the real number of cases is probably higher than the official stats. Can't find it now.

Stevo_666

To borrow from what Surrey Commuter said a while back about the initial spread of Covid in Italy last year, we have a TV that allows us to see a few weeks into the future. We are now tuned into the South African channel and they are still broadcasting OK.

First.Aspect

kingstongraham said:

I'm sure I read earlier that the positive case numbers don't include those who have previously tested positive, so with the substantially higher number of reinfections with Omicron, the real number of cases is probably higher than the official stats. Can't find it now.

That's not correct. Stop looking, or you will just end up on a Daily Mail Twitter feed.

rjsterry

briantrumpet said:

The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

(It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)

kingstongraham

First.Aspect said:

kingstongraham said:

I'm sure I read earlier that the positive case numbers don't include those who have previously tested positive, so with the substantially higher number of reinfections with Omicron, the real number of cases is probably higher than the official stats. Can't find it now.

That's not correct. Stop looking, or you will just end up on a Daily Mail Twitter feed.

What's the gap between positive tests for the same person that causes it to be treated as a genuine case?

briantrumpet

rjsterry said:

briantrumpet said:

The number of people in hospital has just fed through to a small upwards turn in the OWID graphs, but the number in ICUs is still edging down, as the number of infections continues its 'meteoric rise'. (There's a phrase that annoys me, as generally meteors don't appear to rise.)

(It refers to the speed rather than the direction.)

Anything wrong with 'rapid'? I don't much care for metaphors whose imagery is flawed. Incidentally, it's a relatively modern coinage.