The big Coronavirus thread

rick_chasey

Quite right too.

briantrumpet

Good job that everything's hunky-dory.

https://twitter.com/DailyMirror/status/1472681565410967558

shirley_basso

I am now going to have to do it over zoom and I don't think it's going to be easy as it was last year - people are bored of it

rjsterry

Finally had my first ping from the app. Ironically, most likely to have been in the queue for my booster. A few more lateral flows to go,but lucky so far.

rick_chasey

I do feel like we’re en route to a car crash and no one is doing anything about it.

2-3 weeks is when it translates to deaths and the numbers are just going crazy

rick_chasey

It is of course mildly interesting that the party of law and order and its supporters are so open about breaking the law, but I guess when the laws are there to enforce some kind of altruism it makes sense.

john80

For those of you advocating a last minute lockdown you are underestimating the hatred those with plans will have. Those that have prioritised their family Xmas by working at home and foregoing social engagements won't thank you for trying to save those that can't manage risk. Essentially a last minute cancellation will essentially do nothing as those that like risk will still meet up.

rick_chasey

The peak is badly timed but surely any attempt to reduce R is better than none?

blazing_saddles

rick_chasey said:

I do feel like we’re en route to a car crash and no one is doing anything about it.

2-3 weeks is when it translates to deaths and the numbers are just going crazy

The more immediate problem is the number of people having had contact and required to isolate.
It’s not just a question pressure of the NHS, but the country’s infrastructure grinding to a halt.

rick_chasey

Totally. That’s what’s happening in Holland already.

john80

rick_chasey said:

The peak is badly timed but surely any attempt to reduce R is better than none?

Making a group of people who have essentially isolated for 5-10 days prior to an engagement and tested in the run up won't do anything for the r rate. Will it though. So if you are cancelling my well thought out plans and I look across town to find large groups pissed up in the pub or having house parties it is not exactly a cohesive plan. Yet another plan thought up by isolationists and those that deep down don't really like their family.

rick_chasey

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

The peak is badly timed but surely any attempt to reduce R is better than none?

Making a group of people who have essentially isolated for 5-10 days prior to an engagement and tested in the run up won't do anything for the r rate. Will it though. So if you are cancelling my well thought out plans and I look across town to find large groups pissed up in the pub or having house parties it is not exactly a cohesive plan. Yet another plan thought up by isolationists and those that deep down don't really like their family.

So if that’s the case surely you lockdown sooner and give an Xmas day exception?

This chat is all good and macho but when the hospitals are overflowing and half the staff unable to attend its a different story

Pross

rjsterry said:

Finally had my first ping from the app. Ironically, most likely to have been in the queue for my booster. A few more lateral flows to go,but lucky so far.

Had the same when I got pinged, the queue for my jab was the only time I'd been inside long enough to have been picked up.

mully79

rick_chasey said:

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

The peak is badly timed but surely any attempt to reduce R is better than none?

Making a group of people who have essentially isolated for 5-10 days prior to an engagement and tested in the run up won't do anything for the r rate. Will it though. So if you are cancelling my well thought out plans and I look across town to find large groups pissed up in the pub or having house parties it is not exactly a cohesive plan. Yet another plan thought up by isolationists and those that deep down don't really like their family.

So if that’s the case surely you lockdown sooner and give an Xmas day exception?

This chat is all good and macho but when the hospitals are overflowing and half the staff unable to attend its a different story

I think your getting too sucked in by the hype.
Case numbers in London have probably peaked. The big cities are going to follow soonish so numbers are going to look worse but be more spread out. We still don’t know if there’s any real death risk to the vaccinated. The unvaccinated can take their chances.

rick_chasey

mully79 said:

rick_chasey said:

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

The peak is badly timed but surely any attempt to reduce R is better than none?

Making a group of people who have essentially isolated for 5-10 days prior to an engagement and tested in the run up won't do anything for the r rate. Will it though. So if you are cancelling my well thought out plans and I look across town to find large groups pissed up in the pub or having house parties it is not exactly a cohesive plan. Yet another plan thought up by isolationists and those that deep down don't really like their family.

So if that’s the case surely you lockdown sooner and give an Xmas day exception?

This chat is all good and macho but when the hospitals are overflowing and half the staff unable to attend its a different story

I think your getting too sucked in by the hype.
Case numbers in London have probably peaked. The big cities are going to follow soonish so numbers are going to look worse but be more spread out. We still don’t know if there’s any real death risk to the vaccinated. The unvaccinated can take their chances.

In 2-3 weeks we'll find out but by then the dye is caste.

We've been here twice before. People always get bullish about the numbers on Monday...

"the unvaccinated will take their chance" > a bunch of them will end up in hospital and force the hospital to cancel other services to handle them.

rick_chasey

Anyway, you might be right and I might be over exaggerating.

https://twitter.com/birdyword/status/1472753469425532931?s=21

pangolin

john80 said:

For those of you advocating a last minute lockdown you are underestimating the hatred those with plans will have. Those that have prioritised their family Xmas by working at home and foregoing social engagements won't thank you for trying to save those that can't manage risk. Essentially a last minute cancellation will essentially do nothing as those that like risk will still meet up.

You have a point John, it will generate huge animosity among those who are vaccinated and are being careful. However I think adherence to any new rules will be higher than you think, whether people are thrilled about it or not.

It is worth remembering that a lot of professions can't just work from home for a couple of weeks to be safe and we're in quite a privileged position.

kingstonian

rick_chasey said:

I do feel like we’re en route to a car crash and no one is doing anything about it.

2-3 weeks is when it translates to deaths and the numbers are just going crazy

When you say “no one is doing anything about it”, you’re excluding the ramped-up rollout of boosters, the need to show Covid passes for Access to large venues and the guidance to wear face masks on public transport & in shops etc ?

Some things have been done - whether they have gone as far as some would wish or recommend is another thing.

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

Anyway, you might be right and I might be over exaggerating.

https://twitter.com/birdyword/status/1472753469425532931?s=21

It's still not really shifting significantly upwards on any metric, other than cases, on OWID: hospital admissions, ICU admissions, ICU patients, deaths. And now we've got school holidays, that's one vector closed off.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Anyway, you might be right and I might be over exaggerating.

https://twitter.com/birdyword/status/1472753469425532931?s=21

Plus only 26% of the SA population is fully vaccinated.

rick_chasey

kingstonian said:

rick_chasey said:

I do feel like we’re en route to a car crash and no one is doing anything about it.

2-3 weeks is when it translates to deaths and the numbers are just going crazy

When you say “no one is doing anything about it”, you’re excluding the ramped-up rollout of boosters, the need to show Covid passes for Access to large venues and the guidance to wear face masks on public transport & in shops etc ?

Some things have been done - whether they have gone as far as some would wish or recommend is another thing.

OK let's do a bit of housekeeping.

"gone as far as some would wish" isn't really what it's about. I wish we didn't have any of this, so it's not about wishing. The strawmanning of people who "want" lockdown because they think it is the safest course of action consistently plagues otherwise decent debate on the merits or otherwise of public health intervention. So can we all accept none of us want any of this and it's a discussion about the best gov't policy and not wish-casting?

Secondly, the large venue guidance is pretty minimal (what proportion of people are we talking about here?) and I get the the masks help but they really don't help that much, a maybe a couple of tenths off the R rate.

Anyway, here's this from the guardian:

The risk of reinfection from Omicron is more than five times higher than Delta and shows no sign of being milder than the previous coronavirus variant, according to a study by Imperial College London. The results, based on data from the UK Health Security Agency and Britain’s National Health Service, analysed people who tested positive for Covid-19 in a PCR test in England between 29 November and 11 December.

which, if true means we're relying exclusively on the efficacy of the vaccination programme (which I think we all knew anyway, hence the booster focus).

I guess the question is that, with the risks the aged face because of their age, does the AZ, AZ, Pfizer/moderna combo do enough against omicron to counter-act the large number of simultaneous infections?

Jezyboy

https://twitter.com/BBCNWT/status/1472548528564195330

I see politicians still haven't learned that the best time to shut the stable door is whilst the horse is still there.

That being said I do not necessarily disagree with Mr Burnham on his conclusion.

kingstongraham

Lateral flow test in the previous 48 hours to get into hospitality and decent standard face masks might help keep the numbers down, but neither of them is happening in the next week.

The other options are keeping the unvaccinated safe by restricting their interactions, which should reduce hospitalisation or restricting everyone's interactions, which should bring numbers down.

Depends if the decision from the top is that the case numbers matter on their own or not.

It's clear that a lot of people have stopped everything possible to try to avoid testing positive this week.

pblakeney

Jezyboy said:

I see politicians still haven't learned that the best time to shut the stable door is whilst the horse is still there.

That being said I do not necessarily disagree with Mr Burnham on his conclusion.

The only logical action is to have localised lockdowns where required.
Trouble is people won't stay local and it doesn't work. National or nothing.

briantrumpet

Hahaha. More desperation. Raab's not convincing even when he's not lying.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1472853890945241091

First.Aspect

I read an article this morning that purported to show that infection numbers almost exactly track the testing number spike, with a gradual uptick of the other metrics.

Just listening to the zoe study podcast, which reflects this. Except London, which is an outlier.

I'll admit it is a huge risk, but I suspect that the government is banking on us seeing what SA has seen, in terms of hospitalisations in comparison to previous waves.

Stevo_666

First.Aspect said:

I read an article this morning that purported to show that infection numbers almost exactly track the testing number spike, with a gradual uptick of the other metrics.

Just listening to the zoe study podcast, which reflects this. Except London, which is an outlier.

I'll admit it is a huge risk, but I suspect that the government is banking on us seeing what SA has seen, in terms of hospitalisations in comparison to previous waves.

I am inclined to agree with Brian (shock, horror) on the outlook for this - that although infections are going up sharply, the serious cases will be kept under control by the relatively good position we are in with vaccines & boosters - in particular compared to South Africa.

Also as mentioned above, a lot of people are staying cautious on meeting up in the run up to this weekend to avoid having to isolate over Christmas (even Liverpool city centre when I was there last Friday night was relatively quiet). Plus, as mentioned above, the schools are out now.

Could be proved wrong though.

kingstongraham

First.Aspect said:

I read an article this morning that purported to show that infection numbers almost exactly track the testing number spike, with a gradual uptick of the other metrics.

Just listening to the zoe study podcast, which reflects this. Except London, which is an outlier.

I'll admit it is a huge risk, but I suspect that the government is banking on us seeing what SA has seen, in terms of hospitalisations in comparison to previous waves.

London being an outlier for that so far isn't that comforting. Once it got going here, it really went ballistic at least for a few days. If that happens elsewhere later, positive case numbers are not going to be pretty.

FWIW, with the triple jabs, I'm fairly relaxed about potentially getting infected again, but I don't want to be spreading it about.

First.Aspect

kingstongraham said:

First.Aspect said:

I read an article this morning that purported to show that infection numbers almost exactly track the testing number spike, with a gradual uptick of the other metrics.

Just listening to the zoe study podcast, which reflects this. Except London, which is an outlier.

I'll admit it is a huge risk, but I suspect that the government is banking on us seeing what SA has seen, in terms of hospitalisations in comparison to previous waves.

London being an outlier for that so far isn't that comforting. Once it got going here, it really went ballistic at least for a few days. If that happens elsewhere later, positive case numbers are not going to be pretty.

FWIW, with the triple jabs, I'm fairly relaxed about potentially getting infected again, but I don't want to be spreading it about.

London's vaccination rates are very poor. It isn't clear that the pattern will be reflected elsewhere, other than the inner cities that also have poor rates.

kingstongraham

First.Aspect said:

kingstongraham said:

First.Aspect said:

I read an article this morning that purported to show that infection numbers almost exactly track the testing number spike, with a gradual uptick of the other metrics.

Just listening to the zoe study podcast, which reflects this. Except London, which is an outlier.

I'll admit it is a huge risk, but I suspect that the government is banking on us seeing what SA has seen, in terms of hospitalisations in comparison to previous waves.

London being an outlier for that so far isn't that comforting. Once it got going here, it really went ballistic at least for a few days. If that happens elsewhere later, positive case numbers are not going to be pretty.

FWIW, with the triple jabs, I'm fairly relaxed about potentially getting infected again, but I don't want to be spreading it about.

London's vaccination rates are very poor. It isn't clear that the pattern will be reflected elsewhere, other than the inner cities that also have poor rates.

I'm not convinced those numbers are entirely reliable, and I would think the vaccination rate would have a greater impact on the number of hospitalisations rather than cases of Omicron.