The big Coronavirus thread

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  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349

    How long to we wait for the time lag?

    There have been 44 further deaths, and week-on-week deaths are still going down, by 5.4% on today’s figure.


    I'd say that cases started moving significantly upwards over a month ago now.

    Hospitalisations is a better indicator I'd say

    Both hospitalisations and ICU still flat. As I say, how long should we wait before coming out from behind our sofas? (Sorry, someone had to say it.) I do agree, if the optimists are badly wrong, the price could be massive. But every day I check the figures, and they aren't moving, still.







  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    Pross said:

    If we hit anything like the peak levels of deaths or even hospitalisations we did with Delta now we have the majority of people vaccinated we may as well give up.

    Surely we'd just make more effort to roll out boosters in say October, rather than scrambling around when it's too late.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,408

    As I say, how long should we wait before coming out from behind our sofas? (Sorry, someone had to say it.)


    Damn, beat me to it Brian :smile:
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    pangolin said:

    Pross said:

    If we hit anything like the peak levels of deaths or even hospitalisations we did with Delta now we have the majority of people vaccinated we may as well give up.

    Surely we'd just make more effort to roll out boosters in say October, rather than scrambling around when it's too late.
    Maybe but we'd have to get through a big wave first and maybe the next variant will resist the booster if Omicron is defeating a double jab.
  • How long to we wait for the time lag?

    There have been 44 further deaths, and week-on-week deaths are still going down, by 5.4% on today’s figure.


    I'd say that cases started moving significantly upwards over a month ago now.

    I think the lack of increase since cases started going back up in November will be the boosters starting to have an effect on the most vulnerable.

    The big increase though really only started one week ago now. Lag between peak of reported cases and peak of reported deaths last winter was about 3 weeks.


  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    Also, at the moment, interesting contrast between Devon & England. Is the spike for under-20s previously having a beneficial effect now? Or will the SE rise ripple out?

    As I've said previously, must be fascinating for the data crunchers.



  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited December 2021
    The prime minister is asked about a photo that has emerged of a gathering in Downing Street while the UK was under strict Covid restrictions last year.

    That was a picture of "people at work, talking about work," he replies.

    "I really think it is vital that we focus on the messages we are trying to get across today," he says.

    He says the country faces "a serious spike" in Omicron but praises the public who have come forward to get the vaccine - as well as the vaccinators and volunteers helping with the rollout.

    He says Saturday was an "amazing day" for vaccinations with "record numbers" coming forward for their jab.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59724766

  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    Yeah. Right.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Their old press secretary *literally got caught on camera laughing that if they got caught they'd claim it was a work meeting* why are we even bothering.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349

    Their old press secretary *literally got caught on camera laughing that if they got caught they'd claim it was a work meeting* why are we even bothering.


    Sorry, going to link another JoB monologue, but I think he picks up why this matters to so many people. It's a bit rambly, but worth a listen.

    It was prompted by a caller whose 3-year-old granddaughter wasn't allowed to see her own father dying from covid in hospital.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    No I mean why are we bothering asking Johnson's excuse - we know what it's going to be.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    edited December 2021
    I only see minutes of board meetings. It's really odd that people think they exist for all internal meetings. No work would ever be done.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    I guess the question is whether hospitalisations outside of London will follow that trend, or whether that's a result of specific circumstances there (e.g, low vaccination rates in certain populations). Johnson's suggestion that it is finely balanced doesn't seem unreasonable, I have to say.

  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    I only see minutes of board meetings. It's really odd that people think they exist for all internal meetings. No work would ever be done.

    Are you just playing Devil's advocate or do you genuinely believe that photo may be a work meeting (with those present split into several groups seemingly doing their own thing)?

    I've attended all sorts of meetings over the years, some far more formal than others. I've often had sandwiches or biscuits served, some we even had breakfast but I've never attended one where we were given alcohol.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    edited December 2021

    How long to we wait for the time lag?

    There have been 44 further deaths, and week-on-week deaths are still going down, by 5.4% on today’s figure.


    I'd say that cases started moving significantly upwards over a month ago now.

    3-4 weeks, so not yet. Hospitalisations come first.

    Edit - should've read on a bit more....
  • I've worked somewhere that cracked open the beer fridge at 5pm on Friday, somewhere else where there was a riverside bar on site, a brewery that obviously had a bar on site, and lots of places that we went for a "social" meeting that had a project update followed by drinks at the end of the day. All of those were intended to get people mixing which is exactly what we were being told was a terrible thing to do.

    You get the drinks out to get people mixing in a less formal way, which is great normally but not within the guidance at the time. If it wasn't a problem because it was outdoors and these people had very busy jobs, then that should have been the guidance.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    Is it just me that thinks that the case numbers and hospitalisations look distinctly coupled?
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    Is it just me that thinks that the case numbers and hospitalisations look distinctly coupled?
    Similar shapes but now much bigger gaps.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,605

    Is it just me that thinks that the case numbers and hospitalisations look distinctly coupled?
    They clearly are not coupled by the same factor as in winter 2020.

    They are clearly still linked.
  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    Pross said:


    Are you just playing Devil's advocate or do you genuinely believe that photo may be a work meeting (with those present split into several groups seemingly doing their own thing)?

    Break-out session.. ;)

  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    I think all the folk saying "where is the person taking minutes" or " why are there no laptops" are really harming their own argument. Now we're arguing about whether it could possibly be about work if nobody is minuting it (obviously it could) rather than the fact that this particular photo is clearly not people working.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    edited December 2021
    Have you ever done part of your work with no equipment present? Even potentially outside? Probably you have yes.

    Were your wife and child there? And a cheese platter? No because now you're describing an office garden party.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    Pross said:

    Is it just me that thinks that the case numbers and hospitalisations look distinctly coupled?
    Similar shapes but now much bigger gaps.
    Percentage? Hard to tell. The red one has only just started to tick up.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    Pross said:

    I only see minutes of board meetings. It's really odd that people think they exist for all internal meetings. No work would ever be done.

    Are you just playing Devil's advocate or do you genuinely believe that photo may be a work meeting (with those present split into several groups seemingly doing their own thing)?

    I've attended all sorts of meetings over the years, some far more formal than others. I've often had sandwiches or biscuits served, some we even had breakfast but I've never attended one where we were given alcohol.
    Not deliberately playing devil's advocate. I just find the comments about minutes to be amusing.

    I've been to the pub with colleagues I dislike, because I have felt obliged to. In my mind, it's work as I would not do so for any other reason. Obviously I understand that to others it doesn't look like it.

    The key test is what I posted upthread - why couldn't the work be done remotely as this is what was expected of everyone else. Whether drinking, cheese, minutes, laptops etc. are required to meet the definition of work is, to me, irrelevant. No doubt 90% of the chat was about work.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    edited December 2021


    I've been to the pub with colleagues I dislike, because I have felt obliged to. In my mind, it's work as I would not do so for any other reason. Obviously I understand that to others it doesn't look like it.

    That's not work. That's socialising with knobs who have nothing else in common and no interesting chat. It would probably be the same 15:00 on a Sunday. Boring but not work.

    Agreed about the online stuff. Like everyone else at the time.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    You must have some interesting chats with your partner TBB, explaining how you've been "at work".
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    TBB at work




    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • monkimark
    monkimark Posts: 1,928
    Have a look at the walk in centres, I got my booster in Surbiton health centre yesterday and they were doing second jabs for 12+ year old. There was barely a queue, I was in and out in 15 minutes, including the 5 minute wait at the end.

    You can check online which ones they have as not all of them were available (I got pfizer) and I think you need the same type for 1st & 2nd jabs.

    In other news, second jabs for 12-15 year olds can now be booked. Don’t seem to be many locations available yet so I booked for my kids to be jabbed at Lewisham Hospital which is about an hour away. May be more locations made available at a later date, but we’ll happily travel to Lewisham to get it done if need be.