The big Coronavirus thread

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  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    tailwindhome said:

    Nice story but would love to ask Simon Harper WTF he did not do this two months ago.

    Also gives an insight into how the BBC manages to spend £4bn a year.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,594
    You could also ask why it took so long.
    Announced on the 24th March.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52018640
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,474
    Seems its more economical to buy a ventilator than build a prop that looks like one.

    There's an entire secondary market for medical kit.

    As has been pointed out the cars on tv aren't made of cardboard
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,291
    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Pross said:

    Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

    I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

    For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

    Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

    Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?
    Demographics? That London is our hotspot and has a generally younger population?

    Although I think a good result would be 50% behind Italy at that 22 day mark.



    We weren't.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Shout out to the “no worse than flu” crowd

    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079
    rick_chasey said:

    Shout out to the “no worse than flu” crowd

    One of my colleagues was in that category. It is a special level of idiocy, because it requires the person to actual think they are cleverer than everyone else.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079
    In the dicussion about my hypothetical holiday home near my parents, I note that the area is 500 times less densely populated.
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Shout out to the “no worse than flu” crowd

    One of my colleagues was in that category. It is a special level of idiocy, because it requires the person to actual think they are cleverer than everyone else.
    I think it's also mainly people that conflate the flu with a bad cold.

    The flu is already a serious virus with a large scale vaccination program behind it.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    surrey_commuter said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Nice story but would love to ask Simon Harper WTF he did not do this two months ago.

    Also gives an insight into how the BBC manages to spend £4bn a year.
    As far as I'm aware demand for ventilators hasn't exceeded supply at any point yet. I am slightly surprised they couldn't make a dummy prop cheaper though.
  • capt_slog
    capt_slog Posts: 3,974
    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Nice story but would love to ask Simon Harper WTF he did not do this two months ago.

    Also gives an insight into how the BBC manages to spend £4bn a year.
    As far as I'm aware demand for ventilators hasn't exceeded supply at any point yet. I am slightly surprised they couldn't make a dummy prop cheaper though.
    Or buy a broken one?



    The older I get, the better I was.

  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    TheBigBean said:

    In the dicussion about my hypothetical holiday home near my parents, I note that the area is 500 times less densely populated.

    In principle I think going there at the start and staying there would have been OK (a friend of mine did that with her son who is in remission after leukaemia but got permission first). It's moving between the two that is more of issue. A lot of people with holiday homes will want somewhere with better mobile and internet connection during the week so wouldn't stay in one place.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,474
    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
    So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?






    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,465
    edited April 2020
    Pross said:

    TheBigBean said:

    In the dicussion about my hypothetical holiday home near my parents, I note that the area is 500 times less densely populated.

    In principle I think going there at the start and staying there would have been OK (a friend of mine did that with her son who is in remission after leukaemia but got permission first). It's moving between the two that is more of issue. A lot of people with holiday homes will want somewhere with better mobile and internet connection during the week so wouldn't stay in one place.
    Not really. The issue with holiday homes is health service capacity where you are going, which wouldn't factor in more than the average number of selfish Londoners being there at any one time.
  • Wheelspinner
    Wheelspinner Posts: 6,720
    Pross said:

    TheBigBean said:

    In the dicussion about my hypothetical holiday home near my parents, I note that the area is 500 times less densely populated.

    In principle I think going there at the start and staying there would have been OK (a friend of mine did that with her son who is in remission after leukaemia but got permission first). It's moving between the two that is more of issue. A lot of people with holiday homes will want somewhere with better mobile and internet connection during the week so wouldn't stay in one place.
    State government here announced early on that those with weekenders had a choice: go stay there for the duration, or stay in your “primary” place. Moving between the two is *not* sanctioned. This long weekend here they are handing out large fines to people who didn’t listen...
    Open One+ BMC TE29 Seven 622SL On One Scandal Cervelo RS
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    I do find it slightly odd how people often like to say how London is such a brilliant place to live. So much to do, great restaurants etc. couldn't live in the countryside or small towns as it's too boring but then when something like this happens they're suddenly keen to get out.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,291
    Pross said:

    I do find it slightly odd how people often like to say how London is such a brilliant place to live. So much to do, great restaurants etc. couldn't live in the countryside or small towns as it's too boring but then when something like this happens they're suddenly keen to get out.

    Not so many restaurants to go to at the moment, to be fair.
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    Pross said:

    I do find it slightly odd how people often like to say how London is such a brilliant place to live. So much to do, great restaurants etc. couldn't live in the countryside or small towns as it's too boring but then when something like this happens they're suddenly keen to get out.

    Something like a pandemic that has introduced limits on personal freedoms that have not been seen in living memory you mean...
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079
    Pross said:

    I do find it slightly odd how people often like to say how London is such a brilliant place to live. So much to do, great restaurants etc. couldn't live in the countryside or small towns as it's too boring but then when something like this happens they're suddenly keen to get out.

    I don't think you have thought that through. There is no longer so much to do, there is nothing to do, so the countryside is appealing.

    I'd still worry about the food situation though. [Trying to give you something to legitimise your point of view]
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079
    tailwindhome said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
    So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?






    The virus kills. That has been known for a while.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,893
    tailwindhome said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
    So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?






    I think it's because we have had more smaller outbreaks, whereas the Italians and Spanish have had fewer more concentrated outbreaks. Madrid and Lombardy are markedly worse than London.

    https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http://com.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com/b41687ac-7b71-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
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    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    Seems a bit like wanting the best of both worlds though. I certainly understand the desire to get away from there but if everyone did that it wouldn't be good for more rural areas would it?

    Obviously not everyone would be able to and ironically those left would be the poorest who live in the really densely populated sections.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    tailwindhome said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
    So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?






    I was wondering that when I heard Hancock saying that nowhere had exceeded capacity and that we had sufficient ventilators at present. It made me think that number of ventilators isn't as big a factor in mortality rates as people were initially suggesting (possibly as the rate of those dying who need to go onto one is so high anyway?).

    It would be interesting to see what non-Covid death rates are like, compared to normal, in places where hospitals have become over-run by Covid patients though.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    tailwindhome said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
    So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?






    It is probably related to the fact their is no known medical intervention for covid19 and ventilators in this case are not providing a temporary respite for a serious ailment which can be treated medically. Either you are going to fight off the virus yourself or you are not. The ventilator does little to help as evidenced by the low numbers coming off them alive. So whilstnit is not great to have icu overun with patients requiring a ventilator by taking no action this is more for a protecting those that need a ventilator but dont have covid19 and nhs safety point of view than actually improving covid19 outcomes significantly.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    tailwindhome said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
    So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?






    That is something that I had not considered even before allowing for our massaged figures
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    TheBigBean said:

    Pross said:

    I do find it slightly odd how people often like to say how London is such a brilliant place to live. So much to do, great restaurants etc. couldn't live in the countryside or small towns as it's too boring but then when something like this happens they're suddenly keen to get out.

    I don't think you have thought that through. There is no longer so much to do, there is nothing to do, so the countryside is appealing.

    I'd still worry about the food situation though. [Trying to give you something to legitimise your point of view]
    Not really, that's the point I was trying to make. There have been previous posts on here, though not for a while, telling us how brilliant London is and people saying they could never live anywhere else and to paraphrase almost suggesting nothing exists outside of the capital.

    Now, something bad impacts the city worse than the provinces and Londoners seem to want to be allowed to go and live somewhere else. I accept it might not be the same people but just seems like wanting the best of both worlds.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Pross said:

    Seems a bit like wanting the best of both worlds though. I certainly understand the desire to get away from there but if everyone did that it wouldn't be good for more rural areas would it?

    Obviously not everyone would be able to and ironically those left would be the poorest who live in the really densely populated sections.


    I think you are underestimating the number of people who live in What is consideredLondon.

    A number of Londoners small enough to not even be a rounding error would seem like an overwhelming invasion in some sparsely populated backwater.

    Conversely that fact that the DM found two London families who upped stocks to live in Rock does not mean that everybody in London will follow them.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    tailwindhome said:

    Seems its more economical to buy a ventilator than build a prop that looks like one.

    There's an entire secondary market for medical kit.

    As has been pointed out the cars on tv aren't made of cardboard


    Seriously? people are suggesting that you can easily build a fake car that four people can sit in and pretend to drive in, is in any way similar to building a metallic looking container with a couple of lights on the front and calling it a ventilator.

    Nobody watching that show knows what a ventilator looks like.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Pross said:

    tailwindhome said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Pross said:



    I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.

    Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.

    Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.

    We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
    We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.
    Thought I'd look back. Well...
    Have we overwhelmed our health service?

    Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?

    We have not lost control like Italy did
    So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?






    I was wondering that when I heard Hancock saying that nowhere had exceeded capacity and that we had sufficient ventilators at present. It made me think that number of ventilators isn't as big a factor in mortality rates as people were initially suggesting (possibly as the rate of those dying who need to go onto one is so high anyway?).

    It would be interesting to see what non-Covid death rates are like, compared to normal, in places where hospitals have become over-run by Covid patients though.
    I suspect most patients are not fit enough to be ventilated
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Shout out to the “no worse than flu” crowd

    One of my colleagues was in that category. It is a special level of idiocy, because it requires the person to actual think they are cleverer than everyone else.
    If there wasn't a yearly vaccine how many people would die of flu in a season?

    Considering thousands die already every year from flu, I suspect the number would be similar to the deaths from C19

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