The big Coronavirus thread

Pross

Isn't the idea of being allowed out to exercise just intended to allow everyone to keep a reasonable degree of physical fitness and get some fresh air?

I don't think the intention is to allow you to take part in whatever form of fitness you like best so travelling to find space to kick a football around isn't essential. Likewise going out for a 20 mile run, 50 mile bike ride or 10 mile hike in the mountains is taking the piss. Virtually everyone I know from running are doing more mileage now than ever.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

I'm expecting the UK will have reported 20k deaths by 25th April.

Agreed. Pretty much in line with Italy plus 15 days still.

Unfortunately the reported number is certainly an understatement.

The ONS stats will correct that but also give some indication of the actual C19 deaths compared to the average mortality rate.

I still think the long term mortality data (over the year) will be less than a 10% increase over the average

An increase of up to 10% would imply additional deaths of up approx 60,000 based on last years UK death stats of around 600,000.

Here are the ONS stats YTD:
https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending20march2020

And that's with the measures we've put in place, and allowing for a probable slight reduction in deaths from other causes.

tailwindhome

DeVlaeminck said:

"The park is now a risk because everyone else has decided to 'socially distance' there.

Each one justifying to themselves their reason for doing it"



Clearly if you want to kick a ball about you need a bit of space - if a park is busy with people walking and running it's not somewhere you get a football out so you drive to the closest place that is. If you can explain to me why I shouldn't I'd appreciate it - it's both within the laws as they stand and not contributing to spreading the virus.

It's safer for you and your daughter not to.

I can't really put it better than that.

DeVlaeminck

Pross said:

Isn't the idea of being allowed out to exercise just intended to allow everyone to keep a reasonable degree of physical fitness and get some fresh air?

I don't think the intention is to allow you to take part in whatever form of fitness you like best so travelling to find space to kick a football around isn't essential. Likewise going out for a 20 mile run, 50 mile bike ride or 10 mile hike in the mountains is taking the piss. Virtually everyone I know from running are doing more mileage now than ever.

I (and virtually everyone you know from running) disagree. You are in Wales so the law may be different but for exercise you need a "reasonable excuse" to travel it doesn't have to be "essential".

DeVlaeminck

"Restrictions on movement

6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.

(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need—

(a)to obtain basic necessities, including food and medical supplies for those in the same household (including any pets or animals in the household) or for vulnerable persons and supplies for the essential upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household, or the household of a vulnerable person, or to obtain money, including from any business listed in Part 3 of Schedule 2;
(b)to take exercise either alone or with other members of their household;"..............

Pross

But I'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks finding some space to kick a football around is a reasonable excuse to travel. Would you consider driving up to the Highlands to climb Ben Nevis a reasonable excuse to travel? After all my preferred form of exercise is sky running and the local hills don't cut it for me. Travelling to the coast to do a bit of sailing? The car parks of all the parks around me as well as popular country walks are closed to stop exactly that sort of thing.

If people insist on thinking what they are doing is some sort of reasonable exemption then eventually we'll end up with tighter restrictions like they have in France.

DeVlaeminck

Why would driving 1-2 miles to exercise not be a reasonable excuse? I think lots of people would think that is very reasonable. I'd consider you driving to your nearest hills to run or walk is reasonable too.

DeVlaeminck

Do we also have to walk to the nearest shop ? If not why not?

TheBigBean

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

pangolin

Pross said:

But I'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks finding some space to kick a football around is a reasonable excuse to travel. Would you consider driving up to the Highlands to climb Ben Nevis a reasonable excuse to travel? After all my preferred form of exercise is sky running and the local hills don't cut it for me. Travelling to the coast to do a bit of sailing? The car parks of all the parks around me as well as popular country walks are closed to stop exactly that sort of thing.

If people insist on thinking what they are doing is some sort of reasonable exemption then eventually we'll end up with tighter restrictions like they have in France.

Why are you comparing a 1-2 mile drive to a safer quieter park to driving to Ben Nevis?

Obviously nobody thinks climbing Ben Nevis is essential.

surrey_commuter

DeVlaeminck said:

Why would driving 1-2 miles to exercise not be a reasonable excuse? I think lots of people would think that is very reasonable. I'd consider you driving to your nearest hills to run or walk is reasonable too.

Surely driving a couple of miles to exercise where there is a fraction of the people is a good idea.

mrfpb

TheBigBean said:

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

Because small coastal towns have poor levels of health provision. Cornwall (for example) has the lowest number of ICU beds per capita in England (or so Ive read). But i othetwise moving from a densely populated area to a thinly populated one would make sense.

pangolin

TheBigBean said:

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

It would be alright if you were absolutely certain you weren't carrying the virus there with you. But nobody can guarantee that.

Stevo_666

shortfall said:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/police-officer-tells-man-cannot-sit-front-garden-12537093/

More covid nazis. This won't help with "buy in" of the population.

Another one who has had his knuckles wrapped as well - at least the plod management seems to be sensitive to these sorts of things.

TheBigBean

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

It would be alright if you were absolutely certain you weren't carrying the virus there with you. But nobody can guarantee that.

Even if I was, it would be better as I would be more effectively isolating than if I were at home.

Stevo_666

coopster_the_1st said:

Stevo_666 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

I'm expecting the UK will have reported 20k deaths by 25th April.

Agreed. Pretty much in line with Italy plus 15 days still.

Unfortunately the reported number is certainly an understatement.

The ONS stats will correct that but also give some indication of the actual C19 deaths compared to the average mortality rate.

I still think the long term mortality data (over the year) will be less than a 10% increase over the average

An increase of up to 10% would imply additional deaths of up approx 60,000 based on last years UK death stats of around 600,000.

Here are the ONS stats YTD:
https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending20march2020

Yes. A number of them will be where the virus kills a fit, healthy person however a number will be deaths brought forward a year or two.

It's not nice to think or accept but this happens. There are many illnesses that will take young, fit and healthy people way before their time. This is another one to add to that list.

Also if you look at the graph part the way down the report in my link, the number of deaths from influenza and pneumonia under normal circumstances are surprisingly high - somewhere between 2,000 and 3,500 a week and somewhere around 20% of all deaths.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

It would be alright if you were absolutely certain you weren't carrying the virus there with you. But nobody can guarantee that.

Even if I was, it would be better as I would be more effectively isolating than if I were at home.

How so?

rjsterry

tailwindhome said:

Relieved to say Mrs TWH has made a full recovery.

If it was C19 then her main and longest lasting symptom was fatigue.

Good to hear, TWH.

rjsterry

shortfall said:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/police-officer-tells-man-cannot-sit-front-garden-12537093/

More covid nazis. This won't help with "buy in" of the population.

You'll be relieved to know that even Priti Patel thinks the Northants police got it wrong.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

shortfall said:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/police-officer-tells-man-cannot-sit-front-garden-12537093/

More covid nazis. This won't help with "buy in" of the population.

You'll be relieved to know that even Priti Patel thinks the Northants police got it wrong.

Too lenient?

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

It would be alright if you were absolutely certain you weren't carrying the virus there with you. But nobody can guarantee that.

Even if I was, it would be better as I would be more effectively isolating than if I were at home.

How so?

In London, I would say there is a person walking somewhere approximately every 100m, so any journey, for any purpose, will involve some sort of encounter with someone.

Furthermore, to empty the bins or recycle, I risk encountering other people or touching a dirty shared surface.

In contrast, my parents can live for months without being close to anyone, whilst at the same time spending their days walking dogs and gardening.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

It would be alright if you were absolutely certain you weren't carrying the virus there with you. But nobody can guarantee that.

Even if I was, it would be better as I would be more effectively isolating than if I were at home.

How so?

In London, I would say there is a person walking somewhere approximately every 100m, so any journey, for any purpose, will involve some sort of encounter with someone.

Furthermore, to empty the bins or recycle, I risk encountering other people or touching a dirty shared surface.

In contrast, my parents can live for months without being close to anyone, whilst at the same time spending their days walking dogs and gardening.

Makes sense, not withstanding the possibility of having the virus and bringing it with you.

I think the Irish guidance was sensible on this one.

Pick a place and stay there.

Pross

pangolin said:

Pross said:

But I'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks finding some space to kick a football around is a reasonable excuse to travel. Would you consider driving up to the Highlands to climb Ben Nevis a reasonable excuse to travel? After all my preferred form of exercise is sky running and the local hills don't cut it for me. Travelling to the coast to do a bit of sailing? The car parks of all the parks around me as well as popular country walks are closed to stop exactly that sort of thing.

If people insist on thinking what they are doing is some sort of reasonable exemption then eventually we'll end up with tighter restrictions like they have in France.

Why are you comparing a 1-2 mile drive to a safer quieter park to driving to Ben Nevis?

Obviously nobody thinks climbing Ben Nevis is essential.

So where is the cut off? Can I drive the 20 miles to climb Pen y Fan? If Ben Nevis was 5 miles away would that be OK? Is it really necessary to have a kick about as your daily exercise?

morstar

All the evidence I have seen is that outside of cities, people generally aren’t travelling. The M61 has been deserted all week and a photo of an empty M6 popped up on my fb feed earlier. Sure, there are some exceptions but they are limited from what I can see.
Cities are a whole different ball game but what are you to do if you live in a flat or even a house with no outside space.
I am fully aware of how lucky I am to have countryside at the end of our road (although that’s not by accident).
If people are distancing sensibly, there has to be careful policing.

tailwindhome

Irish restrictions extended to May 5th

shortfall

Jeez. Do some of you tug your forelocks when you leave house arrest?

Pross

DeVlaeminck said:

Do we also have to walk to the nearest shop ? If not why not?

If all you needed was a loaf of bread and you were traveling further than necessary because you wanted to go to a shop selling fancy artisan loaves then I would question the necessity.

If you were going to do a weekly shop then it sounds reasonable. If you think travelling to a park is reasonable carry on but don't be a hypocrite and whinge if the Government decide to restrict our freedoms further or if you get the virus. I'll keep limiting my exercise to short walks or runs from home and topping it up with the turbo trainer.

tailwindhome

shortfall said:

Jeez. Do some of you tug your forelocks when you leave house arrest?

I don't view the current situation as house arrest.

I don't understand who you think I'd be tugging my forelocks to or why.

I dont get this bizarre mindset.

Pross

shortfall said:

Jeez. Do some of you tug your forelocks when you leave house arrest?

Yes of course that's the reason. The only alternative would be that people want to return to some semblance of normality as soon as possible and think that following the guidance and acting reasonably might be the quickest way to achieve that. But that would be crazy, we've really been brainwashed by the Government chem trails into demanding an ever more stringent police state.

ddraver

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

I don't understand the problem with isolating in a holiday home. If I had one, I would have gone there a long time ago.

It would be alright if you were absolutely certain you weren't carrying the virus there with you. But nobody can guarantee that.

Even if I was, it would be better as I would be more effectively isolating than if I were at home.

How so?

In London, I would say there is a person walking somewhere approximately every 100m, so any journey, for any purpose, will involve some sort of encounter with someone.

Furthermore, to empty the bins or recycle, I risk encountering other people or touching a dirty shared surface.

In contrast, my parents can live for months without being close to anyone, whilst at the same time spending their days walking dogs and gardening.

Makes sense, not withstanding the possibility of having the virus and bringing it with you.

I think the Irish guidance was sensible on this one.

Pick a place and stay there.

There is some sense in this although there is always a risk that you bring the virus from a place where there is lots to a place where there is little - that one cough on the till at the supermarket when you 'just went to pick up a pinto' milk'.

However...

One of the things you learn quickly in Verbier is that just because someone is rich, it doesn't mean they have any common sense. It takes a peculiarly stupid person to come from somewhere where there is little virus to a known and well-publicised infection hub as many people appear to have done this weekend 🙄