The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?0 -
The existence of a parachute changes the outcome of jumping out of a plane. In a few years, this virus may be similar to flu as it mutates and vacinations are updated, but for now it is very different.coopster_the_1st said:
If there wasn't a yearly vaccine how many people would die of flu in a season?TheBigBean said:
One of my colleagues was in that category. It is a special level of idiocy, because it requires the person to actual think they are cleverer than everyone else.rick_chasey said:Shout out to the “no worse than flu” crowd
Considering thousands die already every year from flu, I suspect the number would be similar to the deaths from C190 -
Not sure you can claim that, given you can't really see a significant spike on the new York death chart which includes the time period of where we had swine flu.coopster_the_1st said:
If there wasn't a yearly vaccine how many people would die of flu in a season?TheBigBean said:
One of my colleagues was in that category. It is a special level of idiocy, because it requires the person to actual think they are cleverer than everyone else.rick_chasey said:Shout out to the “no worse than flu” crowd
Considering thousands die already every year from flu, I suspect the number would be similar to the deaths from C19
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Agree, in a few years time, if the virus has not died out, C19 will be listed in the stats as another disease that people die from in the same way as we list flu deaths.TheBigBean said:
The existence of a parachute changes the outcome of jumping out of a plane. In a few years, this virus may be similar to flu as it mutates and vaccinations are updated, but for now it is very different.coopster_the_1st said:
If there wasn't a yearly vaccine how many people would die of flu in a season?TheBigBean said:
One of my colleagues was in that category. It is a special level of idiocy, because it requires the person to actual think they are cleverer than everyone else.rick_chasey said:Shout out to the “no worse than flu” crowd
Considering thousands die already every year from flu, I suspect the number would be similar to the deaths from C190 -
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Interesting and makes sense, thanks Brian.briantrumpet said:This is an interesting read, suggesting that large social gatherings and households have been the key drivers of the spread. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I believe the distribution of the outbreaks is a factor.rjsterry said:
I think it's because we have had more smaller outbreaks, whereas the Italians and Spanish have had fewer more concentrated outbreaks. Madrid and Lombardy are markedly worse than London.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http://com.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com/b41687ac-7b71-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490
I am also struggling to understand the claim that the NHS has 'lost control' if there is still spare ICU and ventilator capacity."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Thanks.TheBigBean said:
The virus kills. That has been known for a while.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Doesn't really answer the question though.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Another thought: as we have minimal treatment for the disease and we didn't get social distancing in before outbreaks established, numbers of deaths are largely just a consequence of the number of infections. Overwhelming of health services is a result of too many of those serious cases in one geographical region. Another point is that while our national ICU beds/100,000 figure looks low, provision is concentrated in London and the Midlands, exactly where demand is highest.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/huge-regional-differences-intensive-care-bed-numbers-threaten/
Worth adding that while things are maybe not as bad as they could have been, we are a long way from the end.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Just to put it out there.
Isn’t the ICU capacity the primary consideration here?
Apologies for this in advance but, providing we are below capacity and the virus is continuing to spread, it is job done, the death count is solely a matter of timing. No?
The counter argument is that lock downs stay in place until a vaccine is found but I don’t believe that is policy given that estimates remain at 12-18months. I believe policy remains that the virus spreads and the vulnerable remain locked down.
As soon as we relax the lock down, the spread will climb again so knocking it on the head now doesn’t help long term unless you believe in a sustained lock down. The overall mortality rates will matter in 18months time.
None of that is meant to be blunt or insensitive. I have a number of people I genuinely worry about. The two most vulnerable are fully isolating for the long haul and the rest of us are minimising risk. I do however accept it is a game if chance whether we get this or not but it is quite possible we do. If we do and it kills, the timing is irrelevant, the only important factor is whether it was avoidable. Hence ICU capacity being the primary factor.1 -
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.0 -
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
It's looking like NZ are trying to go down the lockdown until a vaccine route. They have geography on their side for this.morstar said:Just to put it out there.
Isn’t the ICU capacity the primary consideration here?
Apologies for this in advance but, providing we are below capacity and the virus is continuing to spread, it is job done, the death count is solely a matter of timing. No?
The counter argument is that lock downs stay in place until a vaccine is found but I don’t believe that is policy given that estimates remain at 12-18months. I believe policy remains that the virus spreads and the vulnerable remain locked down
However they are starting to see deaths(4) so this may not be a solution they can continue to follow.0 -
The bigger issue for me is how many people are dying who wouldn't have been otherwise due to so much resource being diverted out of necessity into dealing with the virus.Stevo_666 said:
I believe the distribution of the outbreaks is a factor.rjsterry said:
I think it's because we have had more smaller outbreaks, whereas the Italians and Spanish have had fewer more concentrated outbreaks. Madrid and Lombardy are markedly worse than London.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http://com.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com/b41687ac-7b71-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490
I am also struggling to understand the claim that the NHS has 'lost control' if there is still spare ICU and ventilator capacity.
It was touched on yesterday at the press conference and is obviously something the Government is concerned about. Cancer treatments are on hold due to their impact on the immune system, transplants can't happen due to the equipment being diverted elsewhere and a lot of non-emergency surgeries being cancelled. Long term all I assume that can be done is look at this year and the next couple against other years to get a picture of the overall impact of the virus on death rates.0 -
Morstar, I think that's a good assessment.morstar said:Just to put it out there.
Isn’t the ICU capacity the primary consideration here?
Apologies for this in advance but, providing we are below capacity and the virus is continuing to spread, it is job done, the death count is solely a matter of timing. No?
The counter argument is that lock downs stay in place until a vaccine is found but I don’t believe that is policy given that estimates remain at 12-18months. I believe policy remains that the virus spreads and the vulnerable remain locked down.
As soon as we relax the lock down, the spread will climb again so knocking it on the head now doesn’t help long term unless you believe in a sustained lock down. The overall mortality rates will matter in 18months time.
None of that is meant to be blunt or insensitive. I have a number of people I genuinely worry about. The two most vulnerable are fully isolating for the long haul and the rest of us are minimising risk. I do however accept it is a game if chance whether we get this or not but it is quite possible we do. If we do and it kills, the timing is irrelevant, the only important factor is whether it was avoidable. Hence ICU capacity being the primary factor.
And appreciate it can be hard to be objective in these matters given family concerns etc. Having lost my old man to pneumonia 3 years ago I have seen what this sort of thing can do."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus0 -
U.K. currently putting up a good challenge to be worst death rate in Europe.
Good effort considering the the odds the bookies gave them. Seems the form the NHS was showing in preseason was illusionary.
The technical ability may be there but they’re not getting the support and the chronic underfunding is beginning to show.0 -
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It's quite a pivot from 'we're not Italy, they've lost control' to 'we can easily double their death rate so long as we don't tell the stupid people that's what we're doing'.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Why does all far right thinking always end up being relaxed about mass death?tailwindhome said:
It's quite a pivot from 'we're not Italy, they've lost control' to 'we can easily double their death rate so long as we don't tell the stupid people that's what we're doing'.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus0 -
I think you're right in that in the near future we will be able to look back at the mortality stats and see what has happened overall. There were some figures on the thread yesterday re the normal death rates and what a given number of additional C19 deaths would do to that.Pross said:
The bigger issue for me is how many people are dying who wouldn't have been otherwise due to so much resource being diverted out of necessity into dealing with the virus.Stevo_666 said:
I believe the distribution of the outbreaks is a factor.rjsterry said:
I think it's because we have had more smaller outbreaks, whereas the Italians and Spanish have had fewer more concentrated outbreaks. Madrid and Lombardy are markedly worse than London.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http://com.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com/b41687ac-7b71-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=490
I am also struggling to understand the claim that the NHS has 'lost control' if there is still spare ICU and ventilator capacity.
It was touched on yesterday at the press conference and is obviously something the Government is concerned about. Cancer treatments are on hold due to their impact on the immune system, transplants can't happen due to the equipment being diverted elsewhere and a lot of non-emergency surgeries being cancelled. Long term all I assume that can be done is look at this year and the next couple against other years to get a picture of the overall impact of the virus on death rates.
There was also an appeal on the TV last night asking people who need non ÇOVID related treatment for them or their children to get the necessary treatment, as it appeared many people are understandably apprehensive about going to hospital."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If that's addressed to me I didn't make that claimStevo_666 said:I am also struggling to understand the claim that the NHS has 'lost control' if there is still spare ICU and ventilator capacity.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
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The assumption is that it doesn't involve them.rick_chasey said:
Why does all far right thinking always end up being relaxed about mass death?tailwindhome said:
It's quite a pivot from 'we're not Italy, they've lost control' to 'we can easily double their death rate so long as we don't tell the stupid people that's what we're doing'.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virusThe above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
It was in your post above with no twitter link or stated source, so it looked like your view. Who did make the claim?tailwindhome said:
If that's addressed to me I didn't make that claimStevo_666 said:I am also struggling to understand the claim that the NHS has 'lost control' if there is still spare ICU and ventilator capacity.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Maybe I'm reading too much into your posts, but you seem awfully relaxed about the possibility of being one of those otherwise younger healthy people who nevertheless are made seriously ill or killed by the disease.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think you may have misread or misunderstood my post.Stevo_666 said:
It was in your post above with no twitter link or stated source, so it looked like your view. Who did make the claim?tailwindhome said:
If that's addressed to me I didn't make that claimStevo_666 said:I am also struggling to understand the claim that the NHS has 'lost control' if there is still spare ICU and ventilator capacity.
No harm no foul.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
In what way? What support do you think they are missing that would be bringing different results? Genuine question due to no-one currently claiming the system is at full capacity as there has been elsewhere. Bearing that in mind I'm stumped why the toll is rising as quickly as it is unless Coopster is actually right and the virus rate is being controlled at its highest possible rate of spread without overwhelming the services completely!rick_chasey said:U.K. currently putting up a good challenge to be worst death rate in Europe.
Good effort considering the the odds the bookies gave them. Seems the form the NHS was showing in preseason was illusionary.
The technical ability may be there but they’re not getting the support and the chronic underfunding is beginning to show.0 -
Personally, I’m neither far right nor relaxed about the death rate.rick_chasey said:
Why does all far right thinking always end up being relaxed about mass death?tailwindhome said:
It's quite a pivot from 'we're not Italy, they've lost control' to 'we can easily double their death rate so long as we don't tell the stupid people that's what we're doing'.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus
However, if we accept the premise that a total lockdown (as per now) is neither financially or emotionally achievable for 1yr+, there is a need to accept a certain level of mortality.
If we assume (guesswork number) that is c 100k then achieving that in a linear fashion that doesn’t swamp the NHS and therefore avoids avoidable deaths is better than thinking we’ve stopped it at say 20K but having no exit strategy that doesn’t still deliver 100k dead.
The only logical counter argument is if this Virus can actually be suppressed. I genuinely don’t have the expert knowledge to give an informed opinion on whether it can or can’t.
Wuhan is relaxing lockdown but still has firm rules in place and global travel simply isn’t a factor at present. Their relaxed rules may be similarly strict as our full lock down.1 -
Yes, objectivity is hard to find in relation to our own circumstances.Stevo_666 said:
Morstar, I think that's a good assessment.morstar said:Just to put it out there.
Isn’t the ICU capacity the primary consideration here?
Apologies for this in advance but, providing we are below capacity and the virus is continuing to spread, it is job done, the death count is solely a matter of timing. No?
The counter argument is that lock downs stay in place until a vaccine is found but I don’t believe that is policy given that estimates remain at 12-18months. I believe policy remains that the virus spreads and the vulnerable remain locked down.
As soon as we relax the lock down, the spread will climb again so knocking it on the head now doesn’t help long term unless you believe in a sustained lock down. The overall mortality rates will matter in 18months time.
None of that is meant to be blunt or insensitive. I have a number of people I genuinely worry about. The two most vulnerable are fully isolating for the long haul and the rest of us are minimising risk. I do however accept it is a game if chance whether we get this or not but it is quite possible we do. If we do and it kills, the timing is irrelevant, the only important factor is whether it was avoidable. Hence ICU capacity being the primary factor.
And appreciate it can be hard to be objective in these matters given family concerns etc. Having lost my old man to pneumonia 3 years ago I have seen what this sort of thing can do.
I had a week or so of unconstructive worrying about the virus and job security etc. but have largely adjusted to a new normal.
Taking sensible precautions and hoping that luck favours us.
Sorry regarding your father, pneumonia does seem to be a horrific disease even when recovering.0
