The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Lots of infections equals lots of deaths. Everything else is mostly shuffling deck chairs on the titanic.tailwindhome said:
Thanks.TheBigBean said:
The virus kills. That has been known for a while.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Doesn't really answer the question though.
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It's quite telling that you think of NHS capacity as how many dead they can churn out per day rather than how many people can concurrently receive care.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I worry about what I have control over and I accept on probability that I am going to catch this virus. How it treats me when I get it I have little control over so it is wasted emotional energy to worry about it.rjsterry said:
Maybe I'm reading too much into your posts, but you seem awfully relaxed about the possibility of being one of those otherwise younger healthy people who nevertheless are made seriously ill or killed by the disease.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus
I have over the years taken sensible actions with my health, eg not smoking, little drinking, and keeping relatively fit. I'm not perfect though and my diet could be better but life is to be lived.
I have believed for many years that health is wealth in UK society. This applies more today than ever as those who smoke have damaged their lungs against this respiratory disease. The same applies to those obese, being less fit places additional demands on your body even before you get this virus.
Yes I'm aware there are exceptions to these rules, like smokers who do not get cancer, however we all take decisions that influence our health and these decisions will have consequences both negative and positive in the long run.1 -
I am similarly surprised at the continuing rise but the rate of doubling has slowed significantly. We simply haven’t peaked though unlike the other nations.Pross said:
Bearing that in mind I'm stumped why the toll is rising as quickly as it is unless Coopster is actually right and the virus rate is being controlled at its highest possible rate of spread without overwhelming the services completely!rick_chasey said:U.K. currently putting up a good challenge to be worst death rate in Europe.
Good effort considering the the odds the bookies gave them. Seems the form the NHS was showing in preseason was illusionary.
The technical ability may be there but they’re not getting the support and the chronic underfunding is beginning to show.
However, the idea of a continued spread is arguably an actual pragmatic approach. (Unlike the earlier do nothing idea).
Is there an informed argument that claims this can be successfully suppressed to eradication?
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This is why social distancing should have occurred soonerTheBigBean said:
Lots of infections equals lots of deaths. Everything else is mostly shuffling deck chairs on the titanic.tailwindhome said:
Thanks.TheBigBean said:
The virus kills. That has been known for a while.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Doesn't really answer the question though.0 -
Not eradication but lower amounts of inflected are much easier to control and allow for more nuanced and flexible social distancing policies over time.morstar said:
I am similarly surprised at the continuing rise but the rate of doubling has slowed significantly. We simply haven’t peaked though unlike the other nations.Pross said:
Bearing that in mind I'm stumped why the toll is rising as quickly as it is unless Coopster is actually right and the virus rate is being controlled at its highest possible rate of spread without overwhelming the services completely!rick_chasey said:U.K. currently putting up a good challenge to be worst death rate in Europe.
Good effort considering the the odds the bookies gave them. Seems the form the NHS was showing in preseason was illusionary.
The technical ability may be there but they’re not getting the support and the chronic underfunding is beginning to show.
However, the idea of a continued spread is arguably an actual pragmatic approach. (Unlike the earlier do nothing idea).
Is there an informed argument that claims this can be successfully suppressed to eradication?
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Although the point made by Morstar above is that provided we are within the capacity of the NHS to treat those who need treatment, then the number of deaths from this disease is largely a matter of timing, subject only to the roll out of an effective vaccine or other treatment.TheBigBean said:
Lots of infections equals lots of deaths. Everything else is mostly shuffling deck chairs on the titanic.tailwindhome said:
Thanks.TheBigBean said:
The virus kills. That has been known for a while.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Doesn't really answer the question though."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Is this achievable without a seismic change in contact tracing and testing? Genuine question, not being argumentative.rick_chasey said:
Not eradication but lower amounts of inflected are much easier to control and allow for more nuanced and flexible social distancing policies over time.morstar said:
I am similarly surprised at the continuing rise but the rate of doubling has slowed significantly. We simply haven’t peaked though unlike the other nations.Pross said:
Bearing that in mind I'm stumped why the toll is rising as quickly as it is unless Coopster is actually right and the virus rate is being controlled at its highest possible rate of spread without overwhelming the services completely!rick_chasey said:U.K. currently putting up a good challenge to be worst death rate in Europe.
Good effort considering the the odds the bookies gave them. Seems the form the NHS was showing in preseason was illusionary.
The technical ability may be there but they’re not getting the support and the chronic underfunding is beginning to show.
However, the idea of a continued spread is arguably an actual pragmatic approach. (Unlike the earlier do nothing idea).
Is there an informed argument that claims this can be successfully suppressed to eradication?
If not, I’m not sure it’s deliverable. The invasive contact tracing may be challenging in a western democracy.0 -
Check out Greece!morstar said:
Is this achievable without a seismic change in contact tracing and testing? Genuine question, not being argumentative.rick_chasey said:
Not eradication but lower amounts of inflected are much easier to control and allow for more nuanced and flexible social distancing policies over time.morstar said:
I am similarly surprised at the continuing rise but the rate of doubling has slowed significantly. We simply haven’t peaked though unlike the other nations.Pross said:
Bearing that in mind I'm stumped why the toll is rising as quickly as it is unless Coopster is actually right and the virus rate is being controlled at its highest possible rate of spread without overwhelming the services completely!rick_chasey said:U.K. currently putting up a good challenge to be worst death rate in Europe.
Good effort considering the the odds the bookies gave them. Seems the form the NHS was showing in preseason was illusionary.
The technical ability may be there but they’re not getting the support and the chronic underfunding is beginning to show.
However, the idea of a continued spread is arguably an actual pragmatic approach. (Unlike the earlier do nothing idea).
Is there an informed argument that claims this can be successfully suppressed to eradication?
If not, I’m not sure it’s deliverable. The invasive contact tracing may be challenging in a western democracy.0 -
Italy's lockdown was driven by panic due to an overburdened health system.tailwindhome said:
It's quite a pivot from 'we're not Italy, they've lost control' to 'we can easily double their death rate so long as we don't tell the stupid people that's what we're doing'.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus
The UK lockdown was driven by media pressure because other countries had done it. It may have been forced on the UK too soon but the positive was that at the time it had support from the majority of the public especially as it only really works once. There are even reports that it has been followed too well and this is seen as a negative to what they want to achieve.
You can tell from the messaging they don't have a plan out of the lockdown, hence their constant referencing to what the data from other countries shows us.
The NHS is now the service that is going to be saving this country although I don't think they are aware of how long they are going to be the front line for. It is catch 22, more pressure and shorter or a longer drawn out process.0 -
I'm reluctant to defend Coopster and appear to look like I'm in agreement but I don't think that's a reflection of what he is saying.pangolin said:
It's quite telling that you think of NHS capacity as how many dead they can churn out per day rather than how many people can concurrently receive care.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus
I think his point, in his own inimitable style, is that if we need for example an overall rate of 60% of the population to get the virus in order for it to start dying out then we are best getting there as soon as possible without any avoidable deaths i.e. operating just below the NHS capacity so that those who are able to recover do so. Overall it might mean 100,000 deaths in 6 months rather than 100,000 deaths in 12 months thus allowing us to start getting back to normal 6 months sooner.
Where it becomes an issue is if our rate becomes for example 200,000 in 6 months when it would have been 100,000 in 12 months and then you're back to the argument of whether saving 100,000 additional lives justifies the impact on jobs, the economy and the possible health impacts of a longer term lockdown.
We would also be back into the Brexit thread argument of not knowing what would have happened had we opted for the alternative solution.0 -
What to us or taking delivery themselves?rick_chasey said:Germany delivering a bunch of ventilators today.
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To the UKPross said:
What to us or taking delivery themselves?rick_chasey said:Germany delivering a bunch of ventilators today.
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Well done Germany. Good to see some cooperation like this.rick_chasey said:
To the UKPross said:
What to us or taking delivery themselves?rick_chasey said:Germany delivering a bunch of ventilators today.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
some encouraging news about the timing of a vaccine:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804
Let's hope they are right as this could save many lives."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The implications of the UK matching the Italian death rate, while still under NHS capacity, and due to a more widespread distribution of the virus through the population are potentially disastrous if the lockdown wasn't implemented early enough and must present huge problems in developing a test, trace and isolate strategy.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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Politics at either end of the spectrum tends to be relaxed about mass death, as Stalin and Mao aptly demonstratedrick_chasey said:
Why does all far right thinking always end up being relaxed about mass death?tailwindhome said:
It's quite a pivot from 'we're not Italy, they've lost control' to 'we can easily double their death rate so long as we don't tell the stupid people that's what we're doing'.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus0 -
The vaccine is not the only thing that can reduce the mortality rate. There will be treatments that are developed/assessed that will help as well.
Reducing deaths now does not necessarily mean postponing them.0 -
https://www.ekathimerini.com/251560/article/ekathimerini/news/greece-a-noticeable-exception-in-coronavirus-crisis-response-says-bloomberg-op-edrick_chasey said:
Check out Greece!morstar said:
Is this achievable without a seismic change in contact tracing and testing? Genuine question, not being argumentative.rick_chasey said:
Not eradication but lower amounts of inflected are much easier to control and allow for more nuanced and flexible social distancing policies over time.morstar said:
I am similarly surprised at the continuing rise but the rate of doubling has slowed significantly. We simply haven’t peaked though unlike the other nations.Pross said:
Bearing that in mind I'm stumped why the toll is rising as quickly as it is unless Coopster is actually right and the virus rate is being controlled at its highest possible rate of spread without overwhelming the services completely!rick_chasey said:U.K. currently putting up a good challenge to be worst death rate in Europe.
Good effort considering the the odds the bookies gave them. Seems the form the NHS was showing in preseason was illusionary.
The technical ability may be there but they’re not getting the support and the chronic underfunding is beginning to show.
However, the idea of a continued spread is arguably an actual pragmatic approach. (Unlike the earlier do nothing idea).
Is there an informed argument that claims this can be successfully suppressed to eradication?
If not, I’m not sure it’s deliverable. The invasive contact tracing may be challenging in a western democracy.
This just suggests Greece are heavily locked down and early.
Without wanting to sound dismissive, this is not a solution to the problem, it is a very effective mitigation.
At some point, they need to move forwards. That needs either contact tracing and testing or a vaccine.
My assumption is that we are not waiting for 12+ months (rightly or wrongly) so stopping deaths now may not ultimately prevent them.0 -
Fair point.kingstongraham said:The vaccine is not the only thing that can reduce the mortality rate. There will be treatments that are developed/assessed that will help as well.
Reducing deaths now does not necessarily mean postponing them.0 -
I have been critical of much of the media from the start and this is the reality of it to those on the front line.
The media are just interested in sensationalism. Success for them is the headline that drives the news agenda for the day.0 -
I mentioned other effective treatments above as I am aware that other things are being look at at apart from a vaccine. The reduction/postponement point will really depend on the timing of an effective vaccine and/or treatments.kingstongraham said:The vaccine is not the only thing that can reduce the mortality rate. There will be treatments that are developed/assessed that will help as well.
Reducing deaths now does not necessarily mean postponing them."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Time to get another update from my mate who is a NHS respiratory consultant in a London hospital I think.coopster_the_1st said:
I have been critical of much of the media from the start and this is the reality of it to those on the front line.
The media are just interested in sensationalism. Success for them is the headline that drives the news agenda for the day."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
Indeed.coopster_the_1st said:
I have been critical of much of the media from the start and this is the reality of it to those on the front line.
The media are just interested in sensationalism. Success for them is the headline that drives the news agenda for the day.
Too many people shitting themselves over 1000 deaths a day when we can easily pump out 2000.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I am not sure that measuring NHS capacity in deaths per day counts as thinkingrick_chasey said:
Why does all far right thinking always end up being relaxed about mass death?tailwindhome said:
It's quite a pivot from 'we're not Italy, they've lost control' to 'we can easily double their death rate so long as we don't tell the stupid people that's what we're doing'.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus0 -
Sample size of onetailwindhome said:
Indeed.coopster_the_1st said:
I have been critical of much of the media from the start and this is the reality of it to those on the front line.
The media are just interested in sensationalism. Success for them is the headline that drives the news agenda for the day.
Too many people shitting themselves over 1000 deaths a day when we can easily pump out 2000.0 -
In a way he is right, as 1,700 people on average every day in the UK without counting the Coronavirus.surrey_commuter said:
Sample size of onetailwindhome said:
Indeed.coopster_the_1st said:
I have been critical of much of the media from the start and this is the reality of it to those on the front line.
The media are just interested in sensationalism. Success for them is the headline that drives the news agenda for the day.
Too many people shitting themselves over 1000 deaths a day when we can easily pump out 2000."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Why not measure NHS capacity in % occupancy in ICU rather than how many deaths they can process?Pross said:
I'm reluctant to defend Coopster and appear to look like I'm in agreement but I don't think that's a reflection of what he is saying.pangolin said:
It's quite telling that you think of NHS capacity as how many dead they can churn out per day rather than how many people can concurrently receive care.coopster_the_1st said:
Yes. I don't know what capacity the NHS now has but I would guess well over 2000 deaths a day with the new Nightingale hospitals coming online.tailwindhome said:
So a 1000 deaths a day in Italy was because they lost control, a 1000 deaths a day in the UK is part of the plan.coopster_the_1st said:
We are letting the virus spread as fast around the population as NHS capacity will allow.tailwindhome said:
Nope.coopster_the_1st said:
You really don't understand what you are talking about as others as pointed out already.tailwindhome said:
So why are our death rates that of a health service which lost control?coopster_the_1st said:
Have we overwhelmed our health service?kingstongraham said:
Thought I'd look back. Well...coopster_the_1st said:
We are not 2 weeks behind Italy. It's rubbish to look at their numbers and then find the UK equivalent of positives and say that is how far behind we are. Both countries had patient zero at a similar time however Italy went weeks before catching up with contact tracing this patient. We knew all patient zero contacts (Brighton) very quickly.fenix said:
Doctor in Italy on breakfast TV today saying their health system is almost at breaking point. They're just a couple of weeks ahead.Pross said:
I still haven't seen / heard one expert on mainstream TV or radio say anything similar to some of the quotes in print or online media. They are still very much in the nothing to be overly concerned about unless you're elderly and / or have underlying health issues. Is this that TV / radio are toeing the official line or that the wider media are using hyperbole to get hits? I guess we'll find out within a month.
Countries who prepare well - death rate might be 1%. Countries with poor plans - 5%.
We need to flatten the infection curve. Do what the Italians have announced now.
Have people died because the they did not have the correct health intervention?
We have not lost control like Italy did
Are you a religious person by any chance?
Why are our death rates the same as a country that's lost control?
All this capacity being added in the form of the Nightingale hospitals will allow a faster virus spread so the UK is the other side of this pandemic sooner.
We won't be told the capacity figure the advisors are working to until afterwards(we'll probably be able to work it out from the peak daily death number) as too many do not understand what is going on with this virus
I think his point, in his own inimitable style, is that if we need for example an overall rate of 60% of the population to get the virus in order for it to start dying out then we are best getting there as soon as possible without any avoidable deaths i.e. operating just below the NHS capacity so that those who are able to recover do so. Overall it might mean 100,000 deaths in 6 months rather than 100,000 deaths in 12 months thus allowing us to start getting back to normal 6 months sooner.
Where it becomes an issue is if our rate becomes for example 200,000 in 6 months when it would have been 100,000 in 12 months and then you're back to the argument of whether saving 100,000 additional lives justifies the impact on jobs, the economy and the possible health impacts of a longer term lockdown.
We would also be back into the Brexit thread argument of not knowing what would have happened had we opted for the alternative solution.0 -
Presumably one correlates to a large degree with the other. It's not my argument, just my interpretation of what I understood Coopster to be saying. As I said, he's worded it in his own inimitable way and appears to like to treat death as a dispassionate number.0
