The big Coronavirus thread

1121212131215121712181346

Comments

  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,617



    What do you mean by "full lockdown".


    I think he means "Please can someone respond?".
    or "I'm trying to stay relevant by making increasingly absurd and unfounded comments.."

    Comments like 'A mate who works closely with the government' are beyond desperate..

    Maybe he's been talking to a pub landlord who knows Matt Hancock... or at least served him a beer once. Or someone who looked like him.
    It's probably someone who Nick was in the SAS with, out in 'the sandbox'. Or it might have been someone from that time when he was in MI6..
    Its the voices in his head.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,722



    What do you mean by "full lockdown".


    I think he means "Please can someone respond?".
    or "I'm trying to stay relevant by making increasingly absurd and unfounded comments.."

    Comments like 'A mate who works closely with the government' are beyond desperate..

    Maybe he's been talking to a pub landlord who knows Matt Hancock... or at least served him a beer once. Or someone who looked like him.
    It's probably someone who Nick was in the SAS with, out in 'the sandbox'. Or it might have been someone from that time when he was in MI6..
    Which nursery?
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,847
    It's looking more likely that Omicron is already well-seeded in the UK - I reckon we'll see it spreading rapidly in the next couple of weeks, though I also reckon it'll be downgraded as from possibly being a mortal threat, at least to the vaccinated population.

    It annoys me seeing a headline in the Graun that "Half of omicron cases amongst the double-jabbed". Well, yes, durr, because so many people in the UK are double jabbed. It's just as remarkable that half of the cases are amongst the unvaccinated, but that doesn't make a scary headline.
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 12,671



    It annoys me seeing a headline in the Graun that "Half of omicron cases amongst the double-jabbed". Well, yes, durr, because so many people in the UK are double jabbed. It's just as remarkable that half of the cases are amongst the unvaccinated, but that doesn't make a scary headline.

    And. Because the majority of population have been vaccinated, having half the cases in the unvaccinated means that sector has higher infection rate. Naturally.
  • orraloon said:



    It annoys me seeing a headline in the Graun that "Half of omicron cases amongst the double-jabbed". Well, yes, durr, because so many people in the UK are double jabbed. It's just as remarkable that half of the cases are amongst the unvaccinated, but that doesn't make a scary headline.

    And. Because the majority of population have been vaccinated, having half the cases in the unvaccinated means that sector has higher infection rate. Naturally.
    Who's more likely to get tested?
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,617
    orraloon said:



    It annoys me seeing a headline in the Graun that "Half of omicron cases amongst the double-jabbed". Well, yes, durr, because so many people in the UK are double jabbed. It's just as remarkable that half of the cases are amongst the unvaccinated, but that doesn't make a scary headline.

    And. Because the majority of population have been vaccinated, having half the cases in the unvaccinated means that sector has higher infection rate. Naturally.
    Agree there is no context and so little data as to render it virtually meaningless.

    From memory, vaccines are about 80% effective at preventing infection against Delta.

    Lets do some round numbers. If you have 80% double vaccinations and 20% no vaccinations, and the 20% are 4 times more likely to be infected (i.e. as with Delta), then you would expect exactly half of all infections to be in each group.

    Actual double vaccination numbers are about 76%, there is a heavily skewed age demographic, and protection wanes the earlier you are vaccinated, which is also heavily age-biased. On top of that you have a booster programme to consider.

    So how anyone can draw any conclusions at all from less than 30 cases escapes me, other than that conclusion being "I've made the copy deadline, boss".
  • Ncovidius
    Ncovidius Posts: 229
    edited December 2021

    Ncovidius said:

    Full lockdown is on the table now ( according to someone I know who works closely with government, and hasn’t got it wrong yet ) the dates being mooted are either 23rd of December, 27th December, or 4th January, depending on how the numbers look. Boris is pushing for the 4th January. It will be held until the second week in March.

    What do you mean by "full lockdown".

    It’s pubs and non essential retail shut again, work from home where possible, rule of six re instated, but they really don’t want to go to the extremes of not leaving home unless for essential reasons or exercise again. It’s in the breach, they really hope they don’t need to pull the trigger, and if the numbers don’t show signs of rocketing up, they won’t. But it is on the metaphorical table. A friend of mine who owns a bar is also friends with the government contact, and she is really not happy.
  • Pross said:

    Well, they might cancel Christmas but obviously not for themselves.

    Quite.
  • Ncovidius said:

    Full lockdown is on the table now ( according to someone I know who works closely with government, and hasn’t got it wrong yet ) the dates being mooted are either 23rd of December, 27th December, or 4th January, depending on how the numbers look. Boris is pushing for the 4th January. It will be held until the second week in March.

    If they step tings up it's going to be a complete tradegy this chwistmas.
    Which is exactly why they really are praying that the triggering up tick doesn’t happen. It’s being driven by the medics, the politicians are just puppets in the show.
  • Jezyboy said:

    Well if you use the milemuncher method of counting we're almost running at 400 deaths a day...

    Which is nearly almost the same as last year.

    And these numbers are following lots of socialising compared to last year too.

    It's not that it's over, but the vaccine does seem to have taken the edge off markedly.

    Let’s hope so.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 2,905
    There's no need to hope that the vaccines have taken the edge off.

    Just look at the graphs and look at our town centres at the weekends.

    You'll see way more normality than last year, for way less death than last year.

  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847

    It's looking more likely that Omicron is already well-seeded in the UK - I reckon we'll see it spreading rapidly in the next couple of weeks, though I also reckon it'll be downgraded as from possibly being a mortal threat, at least to the vaccinated population.

    It annoys me seeing a headline in the Graun that "Half of omicron cases amongst the double-jabbed". Well, yes, durr, because so many people in the UK are double jabbed. It's just as remarkable that half of the cases are amongst the unvaccinated, but that doesn't make a scary headline.


    Yes, agreed, lazy journalism
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,847
    Hmmm, pre-return PCR tests now required if going abroad, so what with the pre-departure and post-return tests and having to isolate until the return test is declared clear, and the risk of anywhere turning into a red zone country, I think I'll scrub going to France for 10 days at Christmas. It would add nearly £200 in tests, plus the risk of £2400 and missing a week's work on my return. But can defer my EasyJet flights and cancel an overnight hotel. And thankfully my TGV tickets were cheap-as-chips Ouigo ones.

    Still, bügger.
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 12,671
    Erse, tough luck BT. Thinking our Belgian trip last weekend was a v lucky window opportunity, again.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 6,917
    It's a little scary how much our Christmas trip to the French Alps via Geneva has increased by this week due to all the changes, but not much we can do.
    Seems daft that you still need the 2 day PCR which potentially could be done within 24 hours of the pre-departure test, if you had a PCR as pre-departure.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,542


    So if this happens more it’ll be lockdown again.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,454



    So if this happens more it’ll be lockdown again.
    Depends if the backlog is Covid related surely?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,542
    If it’s not there’s a much bigger problem!!!
  • drhaggis
    drhaggis Posts: 1,150
    edited December 2021
    Am flying abroad next weekend to see family over Xmas. I'm out for a couple of weeks, and I totally see having to pony up for a quarantine hotel.
  • drhaggis said:

    Am flying abroad next weekend to see family over Xmas. I'm out for a couple of weeks, and I totally see having to pony up for a quarantine hotel.

    If they'll let you into the country you're going to.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,454

    If it’s not there’s a much bigger problem!!!

    22 seems a particularly large but it has been a problem to some extent for a good few years
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,847

    If it’s not there’s a much bigger problem!!!


    Looking at some of the linked reports going back to October, it looks like there's a problem of discharging patients, as there aren't enough carers to look after them back at home.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,847
    orraloon said:

    Erse, tough luck BT. Thinking our Belgian trip last weekend was a v lucky window opportunity, again.


    Yeah, wishing I'd gone in October half term. Oh well. Will probably try Feb half term, and then Easter. And then Summer half term. And then...


  • So if this happens more it’ll be lockdown again.
    It’s already too late. The 23rd of December lockdown is being pushed by the medics. It’s not looking good.
  • ST reckons of the Covid patients needing intensive care 90% are unvaccinated

    Really can’t see the majority will comply with a lockdown when you only need lockdown the tvvats. And frankly if it is a choice of lockdown everybody or making vaccine passports compulsory it amounts to the same thing for anti vaxxers
  • Another mask study:



    Basically they're useful, not just a little bit, better if infectious person is wearing as well as susceptible, surgical better than cloth and ffp2 better still.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    Ncovidius said:



    So if this happens more it’ll be lockdown again.
    It’s already too late. The 23rd of December lockdown is being pushed by the medics. It’s not looking good.
    I would be pretty annoyed if Xmas is cancelled for a second time when we are all capable of managing our own risk. Is the Venn diagram two overlapping circles of people who don't like their families over those who want a lockdown.

    We could have had a couple of hospitals built for all the antivaxers to attend with covid by now. Sure the care might have been rubbish but who cares.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,202
    edited December 2021