The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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the gov't publish two numbers - covid on death certificate and covid within 28 days of death..john80 said:
If you top yourself within 28 days of getting covid it was the covid that did it according to the stats. Must be true.mully79 said:Of the top of my head I thought there was an increase in suicides for youngsters.
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So you know the daily stats are deaths for any reason within 28 days of a positive covid test, and are telling us that you think it is claiming to represent something other than that?john80 said:
If you top yourself within 28 days of getting covid it was the covid that did it according to the stats. Must be true.mully79 said:Of the top of my head I thought there was an increase in suicides for youngsters.
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New variant B.1.1529 going arounf Southern Africa and HK. Apparently it has big "advantages" over Delta in that it's even more infective and may have higher transmissibility AND higher immune escape (whatever that means - i can guess)
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Have a look at infection rates. Pretty clear unless you can't stand the thought of Europe getting something wrong.rick_chasey said:
Feel free to share current death rates per capita.Stevo_666 said:
Lol. Head in the sand over current stats?rick_chasey said:
Lol no.Stevo_666 said:
I'm right.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:It certainly looks like we've got our tactics right and Europe has ballsed it up again.
You are obsessed.
Want me to pull up the death charts again? Or is it too early to tell?
Also feel free to share the deaths per capita over the past 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and the whole pandemic.
(here's a clue, Germany, with a bigger population, just crossed the 100k deaths mark. UK is around 144k. That's a lot of deaths in a broadly vaccinated population to "catch up")
Also read but cannot remember the source that despite the intensive care capacity in coutries such as Germany and Austria for example, they are coming close to capacity. Not aware of any such issues here."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
That data from Italy looks a bit fishy to me.Stevo_666 said:
Have a look at infection rates. Pretty clear unless you can't stand the thought of Europe getting something wrong.rick_chasey said:
Feel free to share current death rates per capita.Stevo_666 said:
Lol. Head in the sand over current stats?rick_chasey said:
Lol no.Stevo_666 said:
I'm right.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:It certainly looks like we've got our tactics right and Europe has ballsed it up again.
You are obsessed.
Want me to pull up the death charts again? Or is it too early to tell?
Also feel free to share the deaths per capita over the past 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and the whole pandemic.
(here's a clue, Germany, with a bigger population, just crossed the 100k deaths mark. UK is around 144k. That's a lot of deaths in a broadly vaccinated population to "catch up")
Also read but cannot remember the source that despite the intensive care capacity in coutries such as Germany and Austria for example, they are coming close to capacity. Not aware of any such issues here.0 -
Here's one https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-59405471Stevo_666 said:
Have a look at infection rates. Pretty clear unless you can't stand the thought of Europe getting something wrong.rick_chasey said:
Feel free to share current death rates per capita.Stevo_666 said:
Lol. Head in the sand over current stats?rick_chasey said:
Lol no.Stevo_666 said:
I'm right.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:It certainly looks like we've got our tactics right and Europe has ballsed it up again.
You are obsessed.
Want me to pull up the death charts again? Or is it too early to tell?
Also feel free to share the deaths per capita over the past 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and the whole pandemic.
(here's a clue, Germany, with a bigger population, just crossed the 100k deaths mark. UK is around 144k. That's a lot of deaths in a broadly vaccinated population to "catch up")
Also read but cannot remember the source that despite the intensive care capacity in coutries such as Germany and Austria for example, they are coming close to capacity. Not aware of any such issues here.
The vaccination rate is key. We've had 4 months of very high case numbers leading to a correlated number of deaths. Parts of Europe may be about to get similar in a lower vaccinated population.
Looking forward, we're in a better position but bit early to say that any call that we made was better beyond us not being generally anti vax as a country. I think it's easy to forget we all wanted the vaccination because everything was so completely fucked up in January.0 -
Stevo_666 said:
Have a look at infection rates. Pretty clear unless you can't stand the thought of Europe getting something wrong.rick_chasey said:
Feel free to share current death rates per capita.Stevo_666 said:
Lol. Head in the sand over current stats?rick_chasey said:
Lol no.Stevo_666 said:
I'm right.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:It certainly looks like we've got our tactics right and Europe has ballsed it up again.
You are obsessed.
Want me to pull up the death charts again? Or is it too early to tell?
Also feel free to share the deaths per capita over the past 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and the whole pandemic.
(here's a clue, Germany, with a bigger population, just crossed the 100k deaths mark. UK is around 144k. That's a lot of deaths in a broadly vaccinated population to "catch up")
Also read but cannot remember the source that despite the intensive care capacity in coutries such as Germany and Austria for example, they are coming close to capacity. Not aware of any such issues here.
Holland are already sending some intensive care patients to Germany0 -
France has changed it's Pass Sanitaire rules today.
Among changes are that they must all have their booster between 5 and 7 months after their second jab or the PS will become invalid.
Single (or non) jabbed will have to do daily LFR or PCR tests to access the PS.
So effectively a social lockdown has been enforced for those not fully vaccinated.
It's going to cause big problems for those with 12-15 year olds planning to ski (or holiday) in France over Christmas and New Year.0 -
At least they are not hanging around in shutting the door this time.rick_chasey said:
Only 44 hours before the Red barrier descends.
Half the Welsh rugby teams just got there to play the first matches in 18 months and are now desperately struggling to get home.
Italy and Ireland have teams there too.
The European Cup looks farked again if they get stuck.
Black Friday indeed.
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
Are Leinster out there? Could do with them not getting home in time for their match against Bath! Mind you, their U18 side would probably beat Bath at the moment!blazing_saddles said:
At least they are not hanging around in shutting the door this time.rick_chasey said:
Only 44 hours before the Red barrier descends.
Half the Welsh rugby teams just got there to play the first matches in 18 months and are now desperately struggling to get home.
Italy and Ireland have teams there too.
The European Cup looks farked again if they get stuck.0 -
Unfortunately the answer is no, just Munster.Dorset_Boy said:
Are Leinster out there? Could do with them not getting home in time for their match against Bath! Mind you, their U18 side would probably beat Bath at the moment!blazing_saddles said:
At least they are not hanging around in shutting the door this time.rick_chasey said:
Only 44 hours before the Red barrier descends.
Half the Welsh rugby teams just got there to play the first matches in 18 months and are now desperately struggling to get home.
Italy and Ireland have teams there too.
The European Cup looks farked again if they get stuck."Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
The big problem here is how long does it take to monitor a strain to know it's a problem? It's a bit bloody late then to take counter measures as it's already spread across the World akin to the original strain.
Hygiene, face masks, keep a safe distance if viable and if you don't already, learn to breathe through your nose.0 -
But you could put immediate restrictions on travel from South Africa and it would buy you a few weeks.focuszing723 said:The big problem here is how long does it take to monitor a strain to know it's a problem? It's a bit bloody late then to take counter measures as it's already spread across the World akin to the original strain.
Hygiene, face masks, keep a safe distance if viable and if you don't already, learn to breathe through your nose.0 -
Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
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The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
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why were cases expected to drop rapidly?TheBigBean said:
The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
Difficult to read the axes but it looks like we have settled on an acceptable level of deaths of about 200 a day.
Anybody have an explanation for the difference between Germany and Italy/France?0 -
Some government modelling was expecting cases to drop once it had spread through all the schools.surrey_commuter said:
why were cases expected to drop rapidly?TheBigBean said:
The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
Difficult to read the axes but it looks like we have settled on an acceptable level of deaths of about 200 a day.
Anybody have an explanation for the difference between Germany and Italy/France?0 -
Germany playing catch-up. Italy didn't want to lose its 2020 ski-season so sacrificed the elderly. No-one left to kill...surrey_commuter said:
why were cases expected to drop rapidly?TheBigBean said:
The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
Difficult to read the axes but it looks like we have settled on an acceptable level of deaths of about 200 a day.
Anybody have an explanation for the difference between Germany and Italy/France?0 -
TheBigBean said:
Some government modelling was expecting cases to drop once it had spread through all the schools.surrey_commuter said:
why were cases expected to drop rapidly?TheBigBean said:
The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
Difficult to read the axes but it looks like we have settled on an acceptable level of deaths of about 200 a day.
Anybody have an explanation for the difference between Germany and Italy/France?
For sure the lag, but I'm not so sure that deaths would be reflecting the short-lived half-term decline in infections (and hence not necessarily pick up afterwards). My hunch would be that the boosters for older/vulnerable people are working through the system now and protecting those most at risk of death, while infection figures amongst the young is high... the number of people in ICU with covid is also quite low, and doesn't suggest there are (as yet) any nasty surprises around the corner.
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They also assumd they could vaccinate the over 12's in school. Doesn't work if the vaccination teams are all sick or at home caring for sick children though. We got fed waiting so took our daughter to a vax-centre instead. Still waiting for the flu-jabs to roll into the shcools too.TheBigBean said:
Some government modelling was expecting cases to drop once it had spread through all the schools.surrey_commuter said:
why were cases expected to drop rapidly?TheBigBean said:
The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
Difficult to read the axes but it looks like we have settled on an acceptable level of deaths of about 200 a day.
Anybody have an explanation for the difference between Germany and Italy/France?0 -
That's a good point.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Some government modelling was expecting cases to drop once it had spread through all the schools.surrey_commuter said:
why were cases expected to drop rapidly?TheBigBean said:
The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
Difficult to read the axes but it looks like we have settled on an acceptable level of deaths of about 200 a day.
Anybody have an explanation for the difference between Germany and Italy/France?
For sure the lag, but I'm not so sure that deaths would be reflecting the short-lived half-term decline in infections (and hence not necessarily pick up afterwards). My hunch would be that the boosters for older/vulnerable people are working through the system now and protecting those most at risk of death, while infection figures amongst the young is high... the number of people in ICU with covid is also quite low, and doesn't suggest there are (as yet) any nasty surprises around the corner.
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This new variant is terrifying.0
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Ja not good. It is picked up by PCR tests apparently, though I read somewhere not lateral flows...at least the borders shut to those high Nu varient nations 20 mins ago, so it seems a lesson was learned.0
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It was more a joke response to a lot of analysis around a relatively small death change and attributing this to vaccines. It is likely just a natural variance.kingstongraham said:
So you know the daily stats are deaths for any reason within 28 days of a positive covid test, and are telling us that you think it is claiming to represent something other than that?john80 said:
If you top yourself within 28 days of getting covid it was the covid that did it according to the stats. Must be true.mully79 said:Of the top of my head I thought there was an increase in suicides for youngsters.
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It's bound to have happened, I mean it's bloody obvious.rick_chasey said:0 -
Both France and Italy have covid passes without which you are pretty much restricted to working and your weekly shop. This has forced people to get double jabbed.surrey_commuter said:
why were cases expected to drop rapidly?TheBigBean said:
The deaths trail the infections, so as infections were declining a few weeks ago, deaths are now declining. I would expect them to pick up again soon.briantrumpet said:Given the UK's tacit 'Let it rip' policy, these two together do give at least some cause for optimism here, as the death toll still edges downwards daily with still high levels of infection. More by luck than design, I suspect, but...
The hope that UK cases would drop rapidly in November is fading.
Difficult to read the axes but it looks like we have settled on an acceptable level of deaths of about 200 a day.
Anybody have an explanation for the difference between Germany and Italy/France?
Does Germany have a covid pass?0
