Coronavirus and pro sport

pat1cp

Jasper Stuyven quote......"90% of the peloton doesn't think we'll make it to Nice".

david37

Pross said:

focuszing723 said:

Cheltenham's on tomorrow. That's a couple of hundred thousand people over the event relaxed and rubbing shoulders. Personally looking at Italy and how stretch their hospitals are currently, it seems to be going against the UK's summer delay tactic.

My office is in Cheltenham so I'm working from home the rest of this week rather than travelling on a packed train. It was bad enough being a few seats away from someone who spent the whole journey yesterday coughing their guts up and doing those horrible, snotty sniffs.

Cheltenham is a massive experiment to establish more data on the virus. Some epidemiologist was on the radio this morning talking about it.

mrfpb

sherer said:

blazing_saddles said:

On the plus side, China has virtually eradicated the disease. Just 22 new cases declared overnight, down from 40 odd on the past two days.
S Korea also numbers in steady decline the past few days, have today dropped dramatically.

will we then see a rise again when they start to lift travel restrictions ?

China has 17.5 k active cases - just over a third of the world total (47.5 k), so a huge drop but hardly eradicated. Plenty of active sufferers to pass it around.

Looking at the earlier linked page: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The total cases per million people show that Iran and Italy are runaway leaders - 3 times higher than China, 30 times higher than UK.

"Tests conducted" is a worrying stat (unless you live in the UK), USA doing very poorly compared to the rest of the (limited) list of countries.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

mrfpb

That should be South Korea and Italy, not Iran.

pblakeney

mrfpb said:

sherer said:

blazing_saddles said:

On the plus side, China has virtually eradicated the disease. Just 22 new cases declared overnight, down from 40 odd on the past two days.
S Korea also numbers in steady decline the past few days, have today dropped dramatically.

will we then see a rise again when they start to lift travel restrictions ?

China has 17.5 k active cases - just over a third of the world total (47.5 k), so a huge drop but hardly eradicated. Plenty of active sufferers to pass it around.

Looking at the earlier linked page: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The total cases per million people show that Iran and Italy are runaway leaders - 3 times higher than China, 30 times higher than UK.

"Tests conducted" is a worrying stat (unless you live in the UK), USA doing very poorly compared to the rest of the (limited) list of countries.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

mrfpb said:

sherer said:

blazing_saddles said:

On the plus side, China has virtually eradicated the disease. Just 22 new cases declared overnight, down from 40 odd on the past two days.
S Korea also numbers in steady decline the past few days, have today dropped dramatically.

will we then see a rise again when they start to lift travel restrictions ?

China has 17.5 k active cases - just over a third of the world total (47.5 k), so a huge drop but hardly eradicated. Plenty of active sufferers to pass it around.

Looking at the earlier linked page: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The total cases per million people show that Iran and Italy are runaway leaders - 3 times higher than China, 30 times higher than UK.

"Tests conducted" is a worrying stat (unless you live in the UK), USA doing very poorly compared to the rest of the (limited) list of countries.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

A report from the USA says that unless you have premiums insurance cover a test will cost thousands. Even if you do, there will still be high costs.
Then if found positive any time off work will be without pay.
It is not surprising that the test numbers are low.

kingstongraham

The USA could be storing up trouble for themselves. The CDC don't seem to be actively trying to get people tested (and have been rejecting people for testing who have subsequently tested positive) which feels like a mistake.

I wouldn't be surprised if countries restricted travel from the USA within the next few weeks. Israel have avoided doing that specifically by restricting travel from anywhere.

bompington

kingstongraham said:

The USA could be storing up trouble for themselves. The CDC don't seem to be actively trying to get people tested (and have been rejecting people for testing who have subsequently tested positive) which feels like a mistake.

Someone certainly thinks so - and needless to say, it's not accidental but policy coming from the top:
https://quillette.com/2020/03/06/dont-test-dont-tell-the-bureaucratic-bungling-of-covid-19-tests/

Rather surprisingly the UK gets namechecked as one of the few countries with a better policy, not sure if I agree with that.

rick_chasey

On what basis are you judging the UK policy?

DeVlaeminck

Nottingham Forest's owner is confirmed as having the virus - he met the players before their match last Friday - so that will be a test of how seriously this is being taken. Apparently Wolves have asked UEFA to postpone their match with Olympiakos who have the same owner. It'd be easy to see a precedent being set here which would pretty soon shut down all UK sport.

kingstongraham

bompington said:

Rather surprisingly the UK gets namechecked as one of the few countries with a better policy, not sure if I agree with that.

I think the UK government were very effective at getting the message out that the most important thing is to wash your hands. Very disciplined messaging that I think had an effect.

I think they've done well.

bompington

rick_chasey said:

On what basis are you judging the UK policy?

Specifically because UK policy doesn't really go any further than the US policy that is getting slated in the article - fundamentally, we're still only testing people who have been in known epidemic areas and present with symptoms, which means you're going to catch people a lot later. And the evidence suggests that while asymptomatic people are less likely to transmit it, it can still happen

rick_chasey

bompington said:

rick_chasey said:

On what basis are you judging the UK policy?

Specifically because UK policy doesn't really go any further than the US policy that is getting slated in the article - fundamentally, we're still only testing people who have been in known epidemic areas and present with symptoms, which means you're going to catch people a lot later. And the evidence suggests that while asymptomatic people are less likely to transmit it, it can still happen

Yeah.

I really don't know know anything about pandemics to have a view, but the little I understand is that the UK has led the west in terms of thinking about how to handle epidemics and a lot of the other approaches ( though not Italy's) have copied the UK.

From what I read, the UK reasoning is basically "we're an international nation so we will get pandemics if they go around, so containment very quickly becomes pointless" and so it's all about that evening out of cases in order to support the NHS.

In that reasoning is also the weighing up of disrupting normal life vs slowing down the spread. UK appears to err on the side of keeping things going as much as possible, because else you'll get knock on disruptions which may cancel out what the original intention is.

But I can't say I know much about this and i'm at the mercy of my sources and my limited intellect.

What we can say is that the UK is one of the leading countries in terms of testing (even if there are obviously instances where people aren't being tested who should be).

What is good is, unlike a number of autocratic countries, the UK is very open about where its at.

From what I can see with BoJo, even he, who never sticks to the brief, is sticking to the expert brief.

schlepcycling

rick_chasey said:

bompington said:

rick_chasey said:

On what basis are you judging the UK policy?

Specifically because UK policy doesn't really go any further than the US policy that is getting slated in the article - fundamentally, we're still only testing people who have been in known epidemic areas and present with symptoms, which means you're going to catch people a lot later. And the evidence suggests that while asymptomatic people are less likely to transmit it, it can still happen

Yeah.

I really don't know know anything about pandemics to have a view, but the little I understand is that the UK has led the west in terms of thinking about how to handle epidemics and a lot of the other approaches ( though not Italy's) have copied the UK.

From what I read, the UK reasoning is basically "we're an international nation so we will get pandemics if they go around, so containment very quickly becomes pointless" and so it's all about that evening out of cases in order to support the NHS.

In that reasoning is also the weighing up of disrupting normal life vs slowing down the spread. UK appears to err on the side of keeping things going as much as possible, because else you'll get knock on disruptions which may cancel out what the original intention is.

But I can't say I know much about this and i'm at the mercy of my sources and my limited intellect.

What we can say is that the UK is one of the leading countries in terms of testing (even if there are obviously instances where people aren't being tested who should be).

What is good is, unlike a number of autocratic countries, the UK is very open about where its at.

From what I can see with BoJo, even he, who never sticks to the brief, is sticking to the expert brief.

Strange that after years of being told 'we're sick of listening to experts'
we're ........listening to experts

rick_chasey

I think everyone has experienced having to listen and act on medical advice; this is no different.

rick_chasey

I actually though the tweet from no.10 of the video of the chief scientist was good.

Essentially saying that there is no one measure but there are multitude and their effectiveness is entirely dependent on doing them *at the right time* and that is why it may look different to what other nations are doing, who may be at a different stage and the virus may be developing differently.

E.g. if everyone with the sniffles goes into self isolation, you'll isolate a lot of people who aren't ill so they'll start to ignore the advice. You want to tell people to do that at the right moment where it is effective and people will listen and adhere.

mrfpb

From the table I linked to ealrier, UK have tested 199 people per million, the USA have tested 1 person per million. On that figure, we are way ahead of the USA and are more likely to have indentified cases that other testing regimes would not pick up. We also have relatively good levels of sick pay. So we are less likely to have large numbers of people turning up for work with covid-19

blazing_saddles

When this whole shebang started I immediately thought the USA could find itself in trouble, with it's huge reliance upon medical insurance to cover costs.
A quick google and it's clear their press have been all over this for several days.

https://time.com/5794672/health-insurance-deductibles-coronavirus/

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/10/coronavirus-texas-poses-challenges-people-without-insurance/

Your provider will need to wait until after April 1, 2020 to be able to submit a claim to Medicare for this test.

https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/coronavirus-test

focuszing723

https://youtube.com/watch?v=9mrPHO-nkVE
The reality of the situation.

gweeds

Americans about to realise just how fucking insane their healthcare system is, and how few fucks the GOP give about them.

RichN95.

There's been a positive in an office just around the corner from mine. It's only a matter of time....

I've heard Italy will have less positives soon as Michele Ferrari has worked out how to not test positive.

awavey

trying to stay positive https://youtu.be/TDPpjy-UN8Q

kingstongraham

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112?s=19

Don't panic, but make sure the turbo is set up.

focuszing723

Nadine Dorries health minister tests positive for Covid19.

sherer

no on seems to know what's going to happen at the moment.
Im meant to be watching Flanders but not sure if that will be on.

focuszing723

@NadineDorries

Thanks for so many good wishes. It’s been pretty rubbish but I hope I’m over the worst of it now. More worried about my 84yo mum who is staying with me and began with the cough today. She is being tested tomorrow. Keep safe and keep washing those hands, everyone.

Lanterne_Rogue

In brighter news, Covid-19 has just handed me 19 points off the bench in Fantasy Football. The downside of that is that I think the number of cancellations of sporting events will now start to accelerate sharply. Interesting thought that it's being driven by team exposure and not general public health.

I've not seen anything to explain why northern Italy has been hit so badly. Anyone know anything about why? I don't necessarily trust the opinion I keep seeing on Twitter that suggests Italy has a better health system and containment than the UK.

gweeds

Riding outside solo is fine right?

focuszing723

gweeds said:

Riding outside solo is fine right?

I think most things are fine if people are sensible, cautious and treat it seriously to protect the vulnerable who we know will impacted. We also need some governance taking actions using China and Italy as example controls. I don't blame anybody, the economy is damn important and so is health, it's all too easy to judge with evolving hindsight.

gweeds

Well I’m shooting weddings the next three weekends and then another 31 times this year unless they start getting cancelled.

pblakeney

Photo, video or shotgun shooting? 😂