Coronavirus and pro sport

No_Ta_Doctor

Lanterne_Rogue said:

Reports from Italy (via AP, so presumably reliable) that closing schools drove a 20% jump in cases as people treated it as a holiday and took kids out skiing etc. Just goes to reiterate how much of this is going to be situational and non-perfect (would keeping schools open have been worse in medium term?)

Well a full third of cases in DK had recently returned from skiing in Austria. Maybe it's just skiing that's the problem?

But in all seriousness, the ski resorts were a pool of infection, so visiting that pool was a bad idea (they probably didn't realise) but that might not extrapolate to school closures elsewhere.

Lanterne_Rogue

No_Ta_Doctor said:

that might not extrapolate to school closures elsewhere.

It almost certainly won't, or at least for the same reasons. The point was more that there are unintended consequences lurking at every corner, and the optimal approaches are almost certainly going to be shaped by the different societies in which they need to work.

I'm already wondering whether the complete cessation of sport in the UK is going to somehow backfire.

bobmcstuff

Lanterne_Rogue said:

No_Ta_Doctor said:

that might not extrapolate to school closures elsewhere.

It almost certainly won't, or at least for the same reasons. The point was more that there are unintended consequences lurking at every corner, and the optimal approaches are almost certainly going to be shaped by the different societies in which they need to work.

I'm already wondering whether the complete cessation of sport in the UK is going to somehow backfire.

I think an obvious concern is that if schools are closed while businesses stay open, then grandparents (ie the more at risk group) will end up more exposed than otherwise as they tend to provide a lot of childcare.

blazing_saddles

bobmcstuff said:

Lanterne_Rogue said:

No_Ta_Doctor said:

that might not extrapolate to school closures elsewhere.

It almost certainly won't, or at least for the same reasons. The point was more that there are unintended consequences lurking at every corner, and the optimal approaches are almost certainly going to be shaped by the different societies in which they need to work.

I'm already wondering whether the complete cessation of sport in the UK is going to somehow backfire.

I think an obvious concern is that if schools are closed while businesses stay open, then grandparents (ie the more at risk group) will end up more exposed than otherwise as they tend to provide a lot of childcare.

Absolutely.
Every school holiday we see this when they take the kids to do the daily shop to stop them climbing the walls.
If the grandparents are over 70 then there will soon be this other complication.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

mididoctors

I think any measures are just to flatten the curve in so far as the stress on the healthcare system . We just have to take a big bite out of this tu7d Sandwich and accept this year's season as a wRite off . Carefully designed precautions and format changes could let some racing happen thou. Ban mass spectators at race ends finished etc. But there needs to be co ordination from trans state level down ... This is really happening.

takethehighroad

I know it's not the time for speculation, but I love the Classics so I was looking for a suitable gap in the season. We could create a great Classics season after the Vuelta, including the existing Italian races, the Worlds and the "Spring" classics. Pie in the sky maybe, but it might mean a rainy Paris Roubaix for once

gsk82

takethehighroad said:

I know it's not the time for speculation, but I love the Classics so I was looking for a suitable gap in the season. We could create a great Classics season after the Vuelta, including the existing Italian races, the Worlds and the "Spring" classics. Pie in the sky maybe, but it might mean a rainy Paris Roubaix for once

They could run the cobbled classics alongside the Italian one day races. Time the finishes a little differently and you've got a great few weeks of TV. No one cares about the Ardennes so they can just be cancelled.

blazing_saddles

This thing has a ways to go given international response and how it currently stacks up against other killers.
Coronavirus Deaths to date: 6,086


Health
2,656,356 Communicable disease deaths this year
99,436 Seasonal flu deaths this year
1,555,350 Deaths of children under 5 this year
63,247 Deaths of mothers during birth this year
41,637,273 HIV/AIDS infected people
343,984 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year
1,680,552 Deaths caused by cancer this year
200,711 Deaths caused by malaria this year
1,022,917 Deaths caused by smoking this year
511,781 Deaths caused by alcohol this year
219,427 Suicides this year
276,220 Road traffic accident fatalities this year

bobmcstuff

Coronavirus hasn't infected that many people yet so comparing the fatalities with other more widespread things doesnt mean that much. With a 1 or 2% fatality rate it'll start to overtake those other things pretty fast.

I found this washington post article about flattening the curve with simplified simulations quite interesting on that front: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

ocdupalais

bobmcstuff said:

I found this washington post article about flattening the curve with simplified simulations quite interesting on that front: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Nice. The chilling final comment from the graphic designer of the article, quite liderally, mate, fills in the dots...

This was yet another crushing view of the British gov stance.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

bobmcstuff

ocdupalais said:

bobmcstuff said:

I found this washington post article about flattening the curve with simplified simulations quite interesting on that front: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Nice. The chilling final comment from the graphic designer of the article, quite liderally, mate, fills in the dots...

This was yet another crushing view of the British gov stance.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

Actually since in the simulation the "recovered" dots no longer do anything, it doesn't matter whether you take out the "dead" ones or just leave them there bouncing around... Kinda bleak but it doesn't affect the simulation.

Spent my run this morning thinking of ways to improve it... I assume this type of thing is what the government forecasts are based on (you hope), but on a bigger scale and with more variables.

mrfpb

sherer said:

i was expecting a rise in cases from China, now they have lifted restrictions but that doesnt seem to have happened so far.

Thanks for the quotes blazing, that wasnt what I saw last year, but ive only ever seen once stage so dont have much data to go on.

Last year they had the Allaphillipe factor to keep the locals watching.

mrfpb

ocdupalais said:

bobmcstuff said:

I found this washington post article about flattening the curve with simplified simulations quite interesting on that front: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Nice. The chilling final comment from the graphic designer of the article, quite liderally, mate, fills in the dots...

This was yet another crushing view of the British gov stance.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

I've seen this attack way too often over the weekend. Basically seizing on comments about "Herd Immunity" as if that is the sum total of government policy on the coronavirus - ie stand back and let it take it's course, ignoring other govt advice like the (modest) social distancing measures, recommending voluntary self isolation when symtomatic or at risk from exposure, reinforcing basic hygiene.

red.rider

Tour de Romandie cancelled as CH goes into lockdown until April 19th

https://www.srf.ch/sport/mehr-sport/rad/news-aus-dem-radsport-tour-de-romandie-abgesagt

gweeds

Looks like Euro 2020 is being canned tomorrow. Not looking good for the TDF.

RichN95.

gweeds said:

Looks like Euro 2020 is being canned tomorrow. Not looking good for the TDF.

But that's mainly to allow more time to finish the current season. No-one is going to cancel the Tour to allow other races to take place.

It could be an interesting Tour if the riders came in with no racing and massively disrupted training.

Lanterne_Rogue

Just to float an idea, seeing as we're now supposed to not go outside and there's apparently a worldwide ban on sport, anyone up for just creating our own race at some point? Set a time, choose a parcours, and create a race out of our own imagination. Can simply replace MSR or something (I mean, it's not like we don't know how that race always goes anyway).

Not sure who gets to choose a winner (have a poll in the pre-race preview, perhaps?) but we can narrate the race we want for a change rather than having to rely on the vagaries of weather, form and the kidnap of Carlton Kirby.

Not even any reason to ever finish it, come to think of it - just keep adding details until we get bored or somebody takes pity and allows some racing to break out...

mrb123

A Sky Sports subscription is starting to look like very poor value. Wonder if they'd agree to a temporary transfer for the movie channels...

No_Ta_Doctor

Lanterne_Rogue said:

Just to float an idea, seeing as we're now supposed to not go outside and there's apparently a worldwide ban on sport, anyone up for just creating our own race at some point? Set a time, choose a parcours, and create a race out of our own imagination. Can simply replace MSR or something (I mean, it's not like we don't know how that race always goes anyway).

Not sure who gets to choose a winner (have a poll in the pre-race preview, perhaps?) but we can narrate the race we want for a change rather than having to rely on the vagaries of weather, form and the kidnap of Carlton Kirby.

Not even any reason to ever finish it, come to think of it - just keep adding details until we get bored or somebody takes pity and allows some racing to break out...

Guaranteed echelons!

kingstongraham

Grand national gone

awavey

kingstongraham said:

Grand national gone

Boat race too, though did anyone care about that

kingstongraham

There's going to be no tdf. Not a hope. No season at all. Write it off.

Charlie_Croker

awavey said:

Boat race too, though did anyone care about that

Yeah! Always try to watch that one

pblakeney

A Spanish football coach has died from it.
Aged 21. Perspective. 😢

rick_chasey

RichN95. said:

gweeds said:

Looks like Euro 2020 is being canned tomorrow. Not looking good for the TDF.

But that's mainly to allow more time to finish the current season. No-one is going to cancel the Tour to allow other races to take place.

It could be an interesting Tour if the riders came in with no racing and massively disrupted training.

It won't be finished come July...

DeVlaeminck

No I suspect the entire season is a write off....and that that fact may seem increasingly insignificant in the months ahead.

I suppose it's possible govt(s) may try and lay on some kind of sport as there will be a recognition that those isolated and those suffering stress, financial hardship, loss etc do benefit from some kind of normality - a distraction from the negative things happening.

kingstongraham

French Open tennis gone. (24th may)

mrfpb

Time for "Nintenedo Switch - Mario and Sonic at the Tokyo Olympics - Pro Edition"

blazing_saddles

The Hell of the North, goes South.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/confirmed-paris-roubaix-2020-postponed-451876

Fleche Wallonne and Liege are officially postponed as well

jimmythecuckoo

We will appreciate the racing all the more now when it does come back.

I am sure of that.