So who now for the Yellow Jersey ?

pblakeney

KingstonGraham wrote:

If WvA can win the rest of the stages at Dauphinoise, he's favourite.

Might be worth a punt before they catch on....

Pross

philbar72 wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Current odds from Paddy Power:

6/4 Thomas
4/1 Bernal
5/1 Dumoulin
8/1 Fuglsang
9/1 Porte
10/1 Quintana
11/1 Yates
14/1 Pinot
22/1 Kruijswijk
25/1 Mas
30/1 Bardet
33/1 Landa
40/1 Nibali, Uran

Fuglsang at those odds? he's a good rider, but not sure he's that good. if the welsh lad stays on its his to lose? I'm not so sure.

As always it reflects the money more than the chances (I know that the money in cycling betting is peanuts but that will still be the main basis of the odds) and not many in the UK know anyone outside of the Brits. I'm actually surprised Yates is as low as he is though.

knedlicky

Pross wrote:

philbar72 wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Current odds from Paddy Power:

6/4 Thomas
4/1 Bernal
5/1 Dumoulin
8/1 Fuglsang
9/1 Porte
10/1 Quintana
11/1 Yates
14/1 Pinot
22/1 Kruijswijk
25/1 Mas
30/1 Bardet
33/1 Landa
40/1 Nibali, Uran

Fuglsang at those odds? he's a good rider, but not sure he's that good. if the welsh lad stays on its his to lose? I'm not so sure.

As always it reflects the money more than the chances (I know that the money in cycling betting is peanuts but that will still be the main basis of the odds) and not many in the UK know anyone outside of the Brits. I'm actually surprised Yates is as low as he is though.

In France, you get better odds for Thomas (9/4), about the same for Bernal, Dumoulin, Fuglsang, Porte, Quintana, and Pinot, but worse odds for the rest here named - only slightly worse for Yates (35/4) but a lot worse for Landa (16/1).

bobmcstuff

I went to check the Norway odds through VPN but apparently gambling websites are banned...

ocdupalais

The next couple of days will indicate one way or the other - but I’ve a feeling that Quintana is packing some heat this year. Obvs, his TTing will be sh!te... but those 2000m cols with an elite climber on form can cause carnage.

m.r.m.

TailWindHome wrote:

Nibali at 40/1?

What's the price therefore for a podium place?

Agree that podium spot for Nibali seems to be the best bet (outside of picking the correct TdF winner).

bobmcstuff

OCDuPalais wrote:

The next couple of days will indicate one way or the other - but I’ve a feeling that Quintana is packing some heat this year. Obvs, his TTing will be sh!te... but those 2000m cols with an elite climber on form can cause carnage.

You were saying?

takethehighroad

bobmcstuff wrote:

OCDuPalais wrote:

The next couple of days will indicate one way or the other - but I’ve a feeling that Quintana is packing some heat this year. Obvs, his TTing will be sh!te... but those 2000m cols with an elite climber on form can cause carnage.

You were saying?

Didn't realise they went over 2000m today

inseine

M.R.M. wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Nibali at 40/1?

What's the price therefore for a podium place?

Agree that podium spot for Nibali seems to be the best bet (outside of picking the correct TdF winner).

So we think he’s fibbing when he says he’s not going for GC?

m.r.m.

Why would Nibali ever not be going for GC? Especially when Froome is out and Dumoulin and Quintana seem out of form.

RichN95.

M.R.M. wrote:

Why would Nibali ever not be going for GC? Especially when Froome is out and Dumoulin and Quintana seem out of form.

Nibali has always been one of those riders who needs to target specific races and train towards them. And he's never done two good GTs back to back.

m.r.m.

True, but in this case he may very well be the best of the rest. I'd rate him second after Thomas. Bernal is getting a lot of buzz, but is largely unproven. I'm certain Bernal will be a multiple GT winner, but it might be rather early for the Tour for him. So, if Nibali can recover from the Giro I think he has a better chance this year than any other future year due to the way the participation has shaken out.

gsk82

Nibali isn't a contender. If he didn't race the giro he'd still be well down the pecking order.

No_Ta_Doctor

I've got a feeling this year's tour is going to be a real dud.

Too many of the top GC riders would be happy enough with a podium or top 5-10. If Thomas is in yellow and Sky are controlling they'll do precisely nothing, just hang on and hope their rivals can't.

Nibali is the exception to that - if he looks anywhere near the GC. We'll know more if he drops a shedload of time in the first week to go stage/polkadot hunting later.

Pross

It should be a really open race and therefore on paper a good one but when Froome crashed out in 2013 the race became a dud. A few years ago it looked like a whole new wave of GC contenders were coming through but most of them seem to have stalled and many of the main threats to Froome chickened out and rode the Giro instead.

DeVlaeminck

gsk82 wrote:

Nibali isn't a contender. If he didn't race the giro he'd still be well down the pecking order.

Behind who? He wouldn't be my favourite but he'd be in the top 4-5 or so for sure, he rarely cracks, can TT ok and if others suffer misfortune he has a habit of being in the right place to profit.

With a Giro in his legs maybe not.

Alejandrosdog

DeVlaeminck wrote:

gsk82 wrote:

Nibali isn't a contender. If he didn't race the giro he'd still be well down the pecking order.

Behind who? He wouldn't be my favourite but he'd be in the top 4-5 or so for sure, he rarely cracks, can TT ok and if others suffer misfortune he has a habit of being in the right place to profit.

With a Giro in his legs maybe not.

He can always hang on to his team car if it gets too much

No_Ta_Doctor

No tA Doctor wrote:

Can I have Fuglsang as a dark horse please?
Yeah I know his GT record isn't great, with his best a 7th place TdF a long time ago, but he's upped his game this season and is going well in the Dolphin. He may be a bit over-raced though (Dauphine is his third stage race this year and had a heavy classics season as well).

Ahem. Odds may just have dropped a little on Jakob.

sherer

hoping this is now a decent open race... would be nice to see someone other than Ineos control the race and take the win.

rick_chasey

No tA Doctor wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

Can I have Fuglsang as a dark horse please?
Yeah I know his GT record isn't great, with his best a 7th place TdF a long time ago, but he's upped his game this season and is going well in the Dolphin. He may be a bit over-raced though (Dauphine is his third stage race this year and had a heavy classics season as well).

Ahem. Odds may just have dropped a little on Jakob.

Never ridden top 10 over 3 weeks in over 5 years though.

Always does well in Tour warm up races.

Now twice won Dauphine and has been second and third in the TdS before.

jam1e

I can't see Nibali going for stages etc, he'll say he is but at the same time he'll cling on to whatever GC position he's in like his life depends on it.

specialgueststar

Have to say Im looking forward to a bit of EF action with Uran ,TJ and Woods and a bit of Craddock

Also my team/men looking the strongest for a long while and no sprinter
PINOT Thibaut
.. ROUX Anthony
.. REICHENBACH Sébastien
.. MOLARD Rudy
.. GAUDU David
.. MORABITO Steve
.. KÜNG Stefan
.. LADAGNOUS Matthieu

No_Ta_Doctor

Rick Chasey wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

Can I have Fuglsang as a dark horse please?
Yeah I know his GT record isn't great, with his best a 7th place TdF a long time ago, but he's upped his game this season and is going well in the Dolphin. He may be a bit over-raced though (Dauphine is his third stage race this year and had a heavy classics season as well).

Ahem. Odds may just have dropped a little on Jakob.

Never ridden top 10 over 3 weeks in over 5 years though.

Always does well in Tour warm up races.

Now twice won Dauphine and has been second and third in the TdS before.

He's always had un jour sans in the 3rd week. Would be great to see him not have one for once.

timothyw

It was such a lame duck of a giro that perhaps Nibali can place in the tour after it (how much work can all those flat stages have been?), although I did get the impression his best days are behind him anyhow.

Thomas should be able to defend his title imho, although we'll learn a lot this week - he won't have to be as good as he was last year. Real question is if his luck holds, or Bernal emerges.

It's an open field, hopefully a good race, but the strength of the ineos team will tell again I think.

Alejandrosdog

Would be great if it became an INEOS rider doing the dirty to other Ineos riders

mididoctors

Two things . First every one tends to base their race round froome slash sky slash ineos ... But G will do.
Do they just fall into pattern or not know what to do if he ain't there. And we get a damp squib

Or

OTOH this is a chance. A lot may think they can win it and go all in.

Certainly a lot of guys must believe they can get on the podium now.

I am thinking more the latter. The course favour exploratory attacks that are not too risky.

Alejandrosdog

I guess we’ll all have to wait and see .......

RichN95.

mididoctors wrote:

Two things . First every one tends to base their race round froome slash sky slash ineos ... But G will do.
Do they just fall into pattern or not know what to do if he ain't there. And we get a damp squib

Or

OTOH this is a chance. A lot may think they can win it and go all in.

Certainly a lot of guys must believe they can get on the podium now.

I am thinking more the latter. The course favour exploratory attacks that are not too risky.

The other riders won't simply swap Froome for Thomas in their minds. They know that Thomas isn't Froome won't fear him. Even last year Thomas benefited from Froome's presence.

The Tour has had a succession of dominant riders since Bobet in the 50s whose mere presence (or indeed absence) moulds a Tour. Froome is the ninth such person. Thomas is not the tenth.

phreak

The fact that Wout Poels put over a minute into guys like Quintana, Bardet and Porte in the Dauphine doesn't bode well for a great Tour. Sure, it's only a warm up race but Poels is 3rd in line for Sky you'd imagine.

blazing_saddles

RichN95 wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Two things . First every one tends to base their race round froome slash sky slash ineos ... But G will do.
Do they just fall into pattern or not know what to do if he ain't there. And we get a damp squib

Or

OTOH this is a chance. A lot may think they can win it and go all in.

Certainly a lot of guys must believe they can get on the podium now.

I am thinking more the latter. The course favour exploratory attacks that are not too risky.

The other riders won't simply swap Froome for Thomas in their minds. They know that Thomas isn't Froome won't fear him. Even last year Thomas benefited from Froome's presence.

The Tour has had a succession of dominant riders since Bobet in the 50s whose mere presence (or indeed absence) moulds a Tour. Froome is the ninth such person. Thomas is not the tenth.

Not sure it works that way, though.
Thomas may not be Froome, but he will be recognized as a team leader, by both the opposition and the team.
I think it's more about how others expect the team to operate and the team will function in the same way that it always does at the Tour.

For me it will be determined by the usual, who comes through the first week or so in the best nick.