So who now for the Yellow Jersey ?

Alejandrosdog

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Kruijswijk anyone?
He'd be my dark horse pick.

hmmmmm good pick

ugo.santalucia

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Still waiting upon that name....

Grignard?

joe_totale-2

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Kruijswijk anyone?
He'd be my dark horse pick.

Good pick although Robert Gesink won't be riding with him which is a big loss as Roglic found out in the Giro.
Van Aert is coming along, will be fascinating to see how he does in the TDF.

Dorset_Boy

Blazing Saddles wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Dorset Boy wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Pinot is a far better chance for France than Bardet IMO. Pinot wins races occasionally, Bardet doesn't (occasional stage aside)

Your statement requires some context : Second in the Tour twice and last years World championship. (and Strade)


I agree though it would be good to see him take some of the smaller stage races

Last year I would have thought Bardet was in the better position, this year Pinot seems to have it

I gave you context. Bardet doesn't win races. ........................

It's not just Bardet though, it's AG2R, they have an abysmal record of winning don't they? there simply isn't a winning culture in the team, period.

Ha ha that's just ridiculous

Mmmmm

OK, so 9 wins so far this season.
1 at WT at the Giro from the breakaway.
8 in .1 French races.
3 from Gougeard in a breakaway.


Still waiting upon that name....

SGS - name a WT stage race won by AG2R in the last 10 years, or a one day classic, or anything other than a chipper.
It's all very well being a big fish in the french sea, but at WT level...... That's what i mean about there not being a winning culture at AG2R.

philbar72

Joe Totale wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Kruijswijk anyone?
He'd be my dark horse pick.

Good pick although Robert Gesink won't be riding with him which is a big loss as Roglic found out in the Giro.
Van Aert is coming along, will be fascinating to see how he does in the TDF.

not as a GC rider though. stage hunter.

joe_totale-2

philbar72 wrote:

Joe Totale wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Kruijswijk anyone?
He'd be my dark horse pick.

Good pick although Robert Gesink won't be riding with him which is a big loss as Roglic found out in the Giro.
Van Aert is coming along, will be fascinating to see how he does in the TDF.

not as a GC rider though. stage hunter.

Absolutely, I imagine he's not done a stage race longer than a week so this'll just be a learning experience for him.

blazing_saddles

philbar72 wrote:

Joe Totale wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Kruijswijk anyone?
He'd be my dark horse pick.

Good pick although Robert Gesink won't be riding with him which is a big loss as Roglic found out in the Giro.
Van Aert is coming along, will be fascinating to see how he does in the TDF.

not as a GC rider though. stage hunter.

Jumbo will be in a similar situation to Ineos, before Froome's crash.
They have both Kruijswijk and George Bennett. I see the Dutch rider as Froome, so it's whether or not Bennett is prepared to act as last man standing in the mountains, or will they run a similar plan to last year with Roglic and Kruijswijk.
Whichever scenario, he shouldn't be flying solo as soon as the race goes over a bridge, like Roglic, last month.
De Plus should be OK, too.

philbar72

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

philbar72 wrote:

inseine wrote:

When will the French learn that TTS are important? Bardet isn’t helped by having different bike supplier every year.

or a Schleck like ability/ shape on a TT rig. those merckx bikes will probably be a step down from the factor rigs he had last year. not sure what he needs to target. stage wins would probably be best.

Your all frothing about this aren't you ?- especially when he gained a place (14th from 15th). He was only 10-12 secs down on Dan Martin Dowsett, Poels Quintana etc

Why are you going on about the bike for Slight hysteria don't you think? :roll: :roll:

hardly fella. he's not a bad timetriallist, just not a world class one. still a great rider, and when it comes to a small group on certain terrain he is absolutely able to win. I'm sure there isn't much difference in bikes, for the record, factor do some massively overpriced stuff, and Merckx stuff can't be that bad, but maybe there is a difference. ho hum...

shipley

Joe Totale wrote:

philbar72 wrote:

Joe Totale wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Kruijswijk anyone?
He'd be my dark horse pick.

Good pick although Robert Gesink won't be riding with him which is a big loss as Roglic found out in the Giro.
Van Aert is coming along, will be fascinating to see how he does in the TDF.

not as a GC rider though. stage hunter.

Absolutely, I imagine he's not done a stage race longer than a week so this'll just be a learning experience for him.

He’s a quick learner.....2 stages in a row now including today’s in Voiron.

mididoctors

Opens up PTP that's for sure

blazing_saddles

Thought it might be interesting to have a look at the current betting odds for the Tour.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tou ... nce/winner

Romain Bardet at longer odds than a guy who isn't even riding is a bit naff from Unibet. :oops:

larkim

philbar72 wrote:

hardly fella. he's not a bad timetriallist, just not a world class one. still a great rider, and when it comes to a small group on certain terrain he is absolutely able to win. I'm sure there isn't much difference in bikes, for the record, factor do some massively overpriced stuff, and Merckx stuff can't be that bad, but maybe there is a difference. ho hum...

Assuming the fit is right (and I don't believe there should be any good reason why the three contact points for a rider can't be replicated on different manufacturers bikes - correct me if I'm wrong - given the resources available to have individual components provided), what do you reckon the time difference would be between the "best" TT bike available to a Pro rider and the "worst" over a 30min or 45 min TT?

Alejandrosdog

larkim wrote:

philbar72 wrote:

hardly fella. he's not a bad timetriallist, just not a world class one. still a great rider, and when it comes to a small group on certain terrain he is absolutely able to win. I'm sure there isn't much difference in bikes, for the record, factor do some massively overpriced stuff, and Merckx stuff can't be that bad, but maybe there is a difference. ho hum...

Assuming the fit is right (and I don't believe there should be any good reason why the three contact points for a rider can't be replicated on different manufacturers bikes - correct me if I'm wrong - given the resources available to have individual components provided), what do you reckon the time difference would be between the "best" TT bike available to a Pro rider and the "worst" over a 30min or 45 min TT?

not minutes for sure.

the position may very well need to change to achieve the most efficient/aero position on a different bike though irrespective of the 3 contact points since the contact points that really matter include the air flow contact points.

RichN95.

Blazing Saddles wrote:

Thought it might be interesting to have a look at the current betting odds for the Tour.

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tou ... nce/winner

Romain Bardet at longer odds than a guy who isn't even riding is a bit naff from Unibet. :oops:

Unibet have been holding a grudge since 2007

No_Ta_Doctor

Can I have Fuglsang as a dark horse please?
Yeah I know his GT record isn't great, with his best a 7th place TdF a long time ago, but he's upped his game this season and is going well in the Dolphin. He may be a bit over-raced though (Dauphine is his third stage race this year and had a heavy classics season as well).

andyp

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Your statement requires some context : Second in the Tour twice and last years World championship. (and Strade)

Bardet has only been second in the Tour once, and third once. Let's be honest, those are great results but at no time in either of those races did he look like he was capable of winning.

ridgerider

I've not really noticed anything solid from Kruijswijk yet this year, but in this modern era, perhaps that's not so critical. I think Jumbo have got their back office in shape now and have robust training plans for their riders.

I think the lack of Froome will possibly motivate second tier riders like Kruijswijk, but does he have to go into the 'hope he doesn't have a bad day' category? But it looks like the TT might not be that day anymore...

Could he be a podiumiser?

inseine

Alejandrosdog wrote:

larkim wrote:

philbar72 wrote:

hardly fella. he's not a bad timetriallist, just not a world class one. still a great rider, and when it comes to a small group on certain terrain he is absolutely able to win. I'm sure there isn't much difference in bikes, for the record, factor do some massively overpriced stuff, and Merckx stuff can't be that bad, but maybe there is a difference. ho hum...

Assuming the fit is right (and I don't believe there should be any good reason why the three contact points for a rider can't be replicated on different manufacturers bikes - correct me if I'm wrong - given the resources available to have individual components provided), what do you reckon the time difference would be between the "best" TT bike available to a Pro rider and the "worst" over a 30min or 45 min TT?

not minutes for sure.

the position may very well need to change to achieve the most efficient/aero position on a different bike though irrespective of the 3 contact points since the contact points that really matter include the air flow contact points.

I think we underestimate the time needed for riders to get accustomed to a bike,it’s not just a matter of replicating contact points. How many times have we heard riders saying they don’t get on with certain bikes. I just think the money Ineos have, for example, allows them to refine the bikes and kit year on year over a long period. With GTs won by smaller and smaller margins a few seconds lost in a TT can be crucial.

larkim

I'm not going to disagree that a few seconds can make all the difference, certainly, so any equipment benefit is important.

I must admit it surprises me how much bike aero is supposedly important, when it looks to me intuitively (that is, as a numpty with no fluid dynamics expertise at all!) that even if there are aero benefits to be accrued they can't amount to much, especially when all bikes are broadly the same. Have there ever been side by side comparisons of pro aero bikes with the same rider in the same position on different bikes to really quantify the supposed differences?

When you've got 65-75kg of rider mass on top, with legs chopping around and side to side wiggling of wheels etc, it just feels like any impact of having the best designed seatpost or forks will make absolutely miniscule differences, once the basics like the wheel shapes have been sorted.

Don't tear me to shreds - I accept I know nothing about it, and would like to know more!!

inseine

I wouldn’t dream of tearing anyone to shreds! And it’s not like I’m expert, though I have spent time in wind tunnels both with cars and bicycles. There does seem to be a bit unjustified stereotype that the French riders don’t take time trialing ( and the whole marginal gains thing) as seriously as some others. I just think that regularly changing your equipment suppliers can’t be a positive, even if the negatives aren’t huge.

rick_chasey

If Thomas is half decent at TdS, he's gotta be favourite.

alanparsons

inseine wrote:

How many times have we heard riders saying they don’t get on with certain bikes.

I cannot think of too many to be honest, Cav calling out Cervelo is the only one that springs to mind, and not sure the bike was the problem in hindsight.

Bardet's best recent TT performance was on a road bike with clip-ons at last years TdF (stage 20), this makes me think he does not do enough training on the TT bike if a hybrid setup is better for him. He still finished 1:42 behind G.

RichN95.

Current odds from Paddy Power:

6/4 Thomas
4/1 Bernal
5/1 Dumoulin
8/1 Fuglsang
9/1 Porte
10/1 Quintana
11/1 Yates
14/1 Pinot
22/1 Kruijswijk
25/1 Mas
30/1 Bardet
33/1 Landa
40/1 Nibali, Uran

kingstongraham

If WvA can win the rest of the stages at Dauphinoise, he's favourite.

joey54321

I would say the issue of changing bikes frequently is more an impact on training and setup then the difference in aero between the actual bikes. I imagine the logistics could mean a couple of months without a dedicated TT training rig at home for the likes of Bardet. Compare this with Team Sky who probably use that time in the offseason to go to the wind tunnel and refine.

What is also important is things like kit and helmet suppliers as they really can impact which fit is faster for each individual rider.

mididoctors

Bardet and pinot lack improvement to their TT compared to the likes of the Yates bros or say Nibali. Does point to an issue. Severely limiting them both.

philbar72

larkim wrote:

philbar72 wrote:

hardly fella. he's not a bad timetriallist, just not a world class one. still a great rider, and when it comes to a small group on certain terrain he is absolutely able to win. I'm sure there isn't much difference in bikes, for the record, factor do some massively overpriced stuff, and Merckx stuff can't be that bad, but maybe there is a difference. ho hum...

Assuming the fit is right (and I don't believe there should be any good reason why the three contact points for a rider can't be replicated on different manufacturers bikes - correct me if I'm wrong - given the resources available to have individual components provided), what do you reckon the time difference would be between the "best" TT bike available to a Pro rider and the "worst" over a 30min or 45 min TT?

depends on the skinsuit, helmet, and other factors as well as the bike. too many variables.

philbar72

RichN95 wrote:

Current odds from Paddy Power:

6/4 Thomas
4/1 Bernal
5/1 Dumoulin
8/1 Fuglsang
9/1 Porte
10/1 Quintana
11/1 Yates
14/1 Pinot
22/1 Kruijswijk
25/1 Mas
30/1 Bardet
33/1 Landa
40/1 Nibali, Uran

Fuglsang at those odds? he's a good rider, but not sure he's that good. if the welsh lad stays on its his to lose? I'm not so sure.

RichN95.

philbar72 wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Current odds from Paddy Power:

6/4 Thomas
4/1 Bernal
5/1 Dumoulin
8/1 Fuglsang
9/1 Porte
10/1 Quintana
11/1 Yates
14/1 Pinot
22/1 Kruijswijk
25/1 Mas
30/1 Bardet
33/1 Landa
40/1 Nibali, Uran

Fuglsang at those odds? he's a good rider, but not sure he's that good. if the welsh lad stays on its his to lose? I'm not so sure.

I agree. There's some decent value to be found in those odds.

tailwindhome

Nibali at 40/1?

What's the price therefore for a podium place?