So who now for the Yellow Jersey ?

andyp

Above The Cows wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Interesting that they think JA is going to lose the jersey on the Galibier stage. I've never ridden that side of the Lautaret but from watching previous TDF it's pretty steady going isn't it ? Unless he cracks on the Izoard then he's likely to get to the Galibier itself - given his descending skills and the length of the descent into Valloire he's probably going to have to ship at least a couple of minutes in 5k of the Galibier for him not to be wearing yellow on Thursday night.

Yeah it's really steady up to the Lautaret from Briançon, just a long slog from Le Monêtier-les-Bains at 4-5%. It's hot though, no shade and the sun reflects back off the rocks. It's probably more likely that the the 3 2,000+m cols will do for him, rather than the Galibier itself.

But the 8 kilometres from the Lauteret to the summit of the Galibier are hard, especially as it's south facing so likely to be at it's hottest when the race goes over it.

above_the_cows

andyp wrote:

Above The Cows wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Interesting that they think JA is going to lose the jersey on the Galibier stage. I've never ridden that side of the Lautaret but from watching previous TDF it's pretty steady going isn't it ? Unless he cracks on the Izoard then he's likely to get to the Galibier itself - given his descending skills and the length of the descent into Valloire he's probably going to have to ship at least a couple of minutes in 5k of the Galibier for him not to be wearing yellow on Thursday night.

Yeah it's really steady up to the Lautaret from Briançon, just a long slog from Le Monêtier-les-Bains at 4-5%. It's hot though, no shade and the sun reflects back off the rocks. It's probably more likely that the the 3 2,000+m cols will do for him, rather than the Galibier itself.

But the 8 kilometres from the Lauteret to the summit of the Galibier are hard, especially as it's south facing so likely to be at it's hottest when the race goes over it.

Yeah those are harder, but it's not the hardest side of the Galibier. And yes it is hot although there are some forecasts saying rain late afternoon, early evening for Thursday, but who knows...

blazing_saddles

Above The Cows wrote:

andyp wrote:

Above The Cows wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Interesting that they think JA is going to lose the jersey on the Galibier stage. I've never ridden that side of the Lautaret but from watching previous TDF it's pretty steady going isn't it ? Unless he cracks on the Izoard then he's likely to get to the Galibier itself - given his descending skills and the length of the descent into Valloire he's probably going to have to ship at least a couple of minutes in 5k of the Galibier for him not to be wearing yellow on Thursday night.

Yeah it's really steady up to the Lautaret from Briançon, just a long slog from Le Monêtier-les-Bains at 4-5%. It's hot though, no shade and the sun reflects back off the rocks. It's probably more likely that the the 3 2,000+m cols will do for him, rather than the Galibier itself.

But the 8 kilometres from the Lauteret to the summit of the Galibier are hard, especially as it's south facing so likely to be at it's hottest when the race goes over it.

Yeah those are harder, but it's not the hardest side of the Galibier. And yes it is hot although there are some forecasts saying rain late afternoon, early evening for Thursday, but who knows...

Not so hot, but the forecast "feels like" temperatures are quite worrying. My tip for the yellow jersey on the Galibier.

Pross

Above The Cows wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Interesting that they think JA is going to lose the jersey on the Galibier stage. I've never ridden that side of the Lautaret but from watching previous TDF it's pretty steady going isn't it ? Unless he cracks on the Izoard then he's likely to get to the Galibier itself - given his descending skills and the length of the descent into Valloire he's probably going to have to ship at least a couple of minutes in 5k of the Galibier for him not to be wearing yellow on Thursday night.

Yeah it's really steady up to the Lautaret from Briançon, just a long slog from Le Monêtier-les-Bains at 4-5%. It's hot though, no shade and the sun reflects back off the rocks. It's probably more likely that the the 3 2,000+m cols will do for him, rather than the Galibier itself.

It's the sort of climb that, if on form, Thomas could get a constantly high pace going which might be less to JA's liking as well.

RichN95.

Above The Cows wrote:

Yeah those are harder, but it's not the hardest side of the Galibier. And yes it is hot although there are some forecasts saying rain late afternoon, early evening for Thursday, but who knows...

So heat on the way up and rain on the way down. If god exists, he's not a Pinot fan. Maybe he'll built a snow wall just for Kruijswijk

DeadCalm

larkim wrote:

Stage 16 - Nimes / Nimes - on paper a nothing day for the GC, but that's been said before. But even so, highest likelihood outcome is no change in GC, even if someone comes out of the rest day for a jour sans.

Stage 17 - Pont du Gard / Gap - would be normally an Alaphilippe sort of day, but he's not likely to animate anything, or be given the chance to. Likely a hard day for all controlling and matching each other's moves, so fatiguing but no other impact on GC.

Stage 18 - Embrun / Valloire - 208km, 3x over 2000m including Izoard & Galibier. Who knows?!? Izoard for nimble climbers, Galibier for diesels? But could it all come back together on the descent, or we see some incident as they hare down at the end of the day. Weather could be critical, but higher likelihood of some mix up in the GC. I wouldn't bet against Alaphilippe staying in yellow.

Stage 19 - SJdM / Tignes - Iseran could well be the decider, but a lot might depend on what has gone on in Stage 18. Nice of them to finish this right outside where I was staying at Easter, and where some idiot did this https://youtu.be/JOmgblulTik The day Alaphilippe loses yellow?

Stage 20 - Albertville / Val Thorens - 33km final climb could be a procession if 18 / 19 have sorted out the GC more clearly, but if it's still all to play for could be absolute chaos and carnage.

Thursday / Friday look like good days to book some annual leave if you get the chance ;-)

My guess is that the top 6 would all be happy to see stage 18 finish with no major changes in GC but they may be forced into action from pressure from behind.

I'd not be at all surprised to see a combination of some of Landa / Valverde (where did he come from?} / Fuglsang / Porte / Uran try to infiltrate the break with a number of team mates in support.

gweeds

Temperatures in Gap: Wednesday +38°C, Thursday +37°C, Friday +36°C (meteofrance). Pinot has an extra rival in Alps. #TDF2019

mididoctors

Alaphillpe may hang on . His partial collapse the other day was largely a self inflicted mistake .if he followed g he probably would finished close to him. I think he has an outside chance if he gets Smart

mididoctors

Landa could go all in . Astana will not help control now they have lost their leader. .a big break of heavy hitters that stays away has become more likely. Could produce a massive surprise

RichN95.

With this heat, maybe Lappartient will step in and cancel stages 18-20. Or maybe cancel the mountains. After all they're closer to the sun.

RichN95.

mididoctors wrote:

Landa could go all in . Astana will not help control now they have lost their leader. .a big break of heavy hitters that stays away has become more likely. Could produce a massive surprise

Do it like Froome. Get the team to reduce the contenders to barely any team help and the go on a long one while the others look at each other.

andyp

RichN95 wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Landa could go all in . Astana will not help control now they have lost their leader. .a big break of heavy hitters that stays away has become more likely. Could produce a massive surprise

Do it like Froome. Get the team to reduce the contenders to barely any team help and the go on a long one while the others look at each other.

Or like Andy Schleck, get a team mate or two up the road ahead of the Izoard, bridge across to them and get them to tow you up the Lauteret before going flat out up the Galibier.

mididoctors

I don't think landa would succeed ....but it will be highly disruptive. The ride landa did to jump across to groups 2and 4 mins up the road to foix was pretty impressive. Came 3rd on the stage! Looked hammered thou.

gweeds

Forecast for Sat is now 3-13c with heavy rain and storms.....