Who will be the next Prime Minister

Bo Duke

To be pragmatic, if May gets the job then we've been spared Boris or Gove, so thank god for small mercies. It's a point from which to rebuild rather than dance down the high street as the other two would have encouraged us to do.

At this stage I'm solidly behind May.

pinno

At least T May was a remain supporter. She is probably more likely to be conducive to striking probable deals with Europe than an entrenched Brexiteer trying to achieve improbable outcomes.

ugo.santalucia

Joelsim wrote:

Just seen this, absolutely spot on. Thinking seriously about the 2 or 3 people I know who I suspect voted Leave too, values so far away from my own.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_fb

I considered whether I will change my mind on this... and I think I won't.

Even in case of an acceptable outcome, I will not forgive those I know personally who voted leave. It's a rather miserable attitude and one I regret being incapable of overcoming, but it is what it is, I can't force myself to like someone I now detest.

bobmcstuff

Bo Duke

Blofeld looks good at 50/1.

joe2008

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Just seen this, absolutely spot on. Thinking seriously about the 2 or 3 people I know who I suspect voted Leave too, values so far away from my own.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_fb

I considered whether I will change my mind on this... and I think I won't.

Even in case of an acceptable outcome, I will not forgive those I know personally who voted leave. It's a rather miserable attitude and one I regret being incapable of overcoming, but it is what it is, I can't force myself to like someone I now detest.

Damn, democracy sucks when it doesn't go your way. Hopefully, toys will be returned to pram, eventually.

ugo.santalucia

joe2008 wrote:

Damn, democracy sucks when it doesn't go your way. Hopefully, toys will be returned to pram, eventually.

It's not democracy, I would have felt the same about them had it gone 52/48 to remain... it's just not wanting to hang out with those people. You probably don't understand because you have no principles

Or maybe you do... if you found out one of your mate is into child pornography, would you still hang out with him?

Bo Duke

Wind your neck back in mate, your mother might be reading this.

Pross

That article made seriously depressing reading. In particular the idiot who seemed to think leaving the EU would solve immigration / refugees from outside the EU and, something I've heard quite a few times, the immigrant who thinks no more immigrants should be granted the same opportunity. I really struggle with this trend of moving from supporting a left wing party straight to the most right wing of the mainstream parties. It suggests they previously voted Labour out of habit / tradition and that their real views are right wing and / or xenophobic. What other policies do UKIP have for the 'working man'?

joe2008

ugo.santalucia wrote:

joe2008 wrote:

Damn, democracy sucks when it doesn't go your way. Hopefully, toys will be returned to pram, eventually.

It's not democracy, I would have felt the same about them had it gone 52/48 to remain... it's just not wanting to hang out with those people. You probably don't understand because you have no principles

Or maybe you do... if you found out one of your mate is into child pornography, would you still hang out with him?

What kind of comparison is that?

rick_chasey

It's just a class thing.

As much as you can draw generalisations from a binary vote of 30 odd million, leave voters tended to be lower, less educated, poorer etc. Higher, more likely to be educated etc.

Majority of leavers have less to lose and don't mind if they give the better off a kicking.

The referendum became a declaration of class war through the vehicle of a ref on the EU.

Bo Duke

Rick... you're so out of touch mate, so out of touch yet you speak with such confidence.

Many very intelligent and gifted businessmen voted to leave, it wasn't a simple decision like you seem to assume. Why don't you go up to Cumbria and ask why they voted out rather than just blaming a 'class war'.

I'm not going to argue endlessly however you do bang the drum without, with respect, any idea what you're talking about.

surrey_commuter

Bo Duke wrote:

Rick... you're so out of touch mate, so out of touch yet you speak with such confidence.

Many very intelligent and gifted businessmen voted to leave, it wasn't a simple decision like you seem to assume. Why don't you go up to Cumbria and ask why they voted out rather than just blaming a 'class war'.

I'm not going to argue endlessly however you do bang the drum without, with respect, any idea what you're talking about.

Google the demographics of the referendum and you will see that Out voters tended to be rural, older, less well educated and poorer. Some of these are obviously related.

This does not mean that you are wrong that many intelligent and gifted businessmen voted to leave, just like many pensioners voted to stay.

This has opened up all sorts of schisms in society - In the upcoming recession there will be no chance of appealing that we are all in it together.

finchy

Bo Duke wrote:

Rick... you're so out of touch mate, so out of touch yet you speak with such confidence.

Many very intelligent and gifted businessmen voted to leave, it wasn't a simple decision like you seem to assume. Why don't you go up to Cumbria and ask why they voted out rather than just blaming a 'class war'.

I'm not going to argue endlessly however you do bang the drum without, with respect, any idea what you're talking about.

The important 2 words that you seem to have skipped in Rick's posted are "tended to"

rick_chasey

Bo Duke wrote:

Rick... you're so out of touch mate, so out of touch yet you speak with such confidence.

Many very intelligent and gifted businessmen voted to leave, it wasn't a simple decision like you seem to assume. Why don't you go up to Cumbria and ask why they voted out rather than just blaming a 'class war'.

I'm not going to argue endlessly however you do bang the drum without, with respect, any idea what you're talking about.

Oh read the caveats, look at the data and come back to me.

joe2008

'A gentle reminder, Remain friends, that more people voted to leave the EU than have voted for anything else, ever.'
@Daniel Hannan

mrfpb

Both John Major and George W Bush were both elected on their nations highest popular vote ever, so I'm not sure that popular vote reflects quality, but it does tend to show that the nation gets the government it deserves. Populations tend to increase, so each election tends to have more eligible voters than the last.

The next PM will be voted in in by either the 0.003% of the population that are Conservative members or possibly just the 329 members of the PCP.

As a Leave voter I have to say I was surprised at how the markets reacted so sharply and the government (and Boris) ran for cover so quickly. Real damage has been caused. I have to also acknowledge that their are lots of people on my side of the debate that I would not care to spend any time with, let alone a pint or a political platform. It's not a great situation.

surrey_commuter

joe2008 wrote:

'A gentle reminder, Remain friends, that more people voted to leave the EU than have voted for anything else, ever.'
@Daniel Hannan

Move on. This discussion is now about the fault lines it has opened up in our society. The most obvious is non-white and non-Brits being abused in the street. I know of three occurrences to acquaintances - I can not remember it happening before.

When the tax rises and cuts next hit there will be no unifying cry of "we are all in it together" there will be cry of go ask for the northern retired farmer for it.

The economic consequences will soon be upon us, the social ones will not be far behind.

bendertherobot

joe2008 wrote:

'A gentle reminder, Remain friends, that more people voted to leave the EU than have voted for anything else, ever.'
@Daniel Hannan

Indeed. That also applies to remain and, of course, the total number of votes cast. If you drill down it may also be possible to apply it to quite a few more scenarios before we're down to the worst/best general election, x-factor and strictly.

One of the weirder things about this recent turn of events is just now much expertise there is over what democracy is, what sovereignty is and how they work. What's wonderful is seeing how this level of engagement has been achieved. Now, if we could just go forward and actually take back control (show an interest) that would be the great legacy.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

Both John Major and George W Bush were both elected on their nations highest popular vote ever, so I'm not sure that popular vote reflects quality, but it does tend to show that the nation gets the government it deserves. Populations tend to increase, so each election tends to have more eligible voters than the last.

The next PM will be voted in in by either the 0.003% of the population that are Conservative members or possibly just the 329 members of the PCP.

As a Leave voter I have to say I was surprised at how the markets reacted so sharply and the government (and Boris) ran for cover so quickly. Real damage has been caused. I have to also acknowledge that their are lots of people on my side of the debate that I would not care to spend any time with, let alone a pint or a political platform. It's not a great situation.

Interesting stat about John Major. Two weeks agoTheresa May would have been dismissed as a right wing nutcase, now she is the great hope.

Don't worry about the markets. It is the real economy that has hit the buffers, the experts tell me that it is far worse than they forecast.

Boris - I don't think any of us had factored in that the Leave Campaign was not a cohesive group. It did not even have a leader, how could it possibly have a plan or be able to deliver on any of the many promises. I do not remember anybody pointing that out.

surrey_commuter

bendertherobot wrote:

joe2008 wrote:

'A gentle reminder, Remain friends, that more people voted to leave the EU than have voted for anything else, ever.'
@Daniel Hannan

Indeed. That also applies to remain and, of course, the total number of votes cast. If you drill down it may also be possible to apply it to quite a few more scenarios before we're down to the worst/best general election, x-factor and strictly.

One of the weirder things about this recent turn of events is just now much expertise there is over what democracy is, what sovereignty is and how they work. What's wonderful is seeing how this level of engagement has been achieved. Now, if we could just go forward and actually take back control (show an interest) that would be the great legacy.

The level of engagement is wonderful. One month ago how many of us had even heard of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?

ballysmate

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Both John Major and George W Bush were both elected on their nations highest popular vote ever, so I'm not sure that popular vote reflects quality, but it does tend to show that the nation gets the government it deserves. Populations tend to increase, so each election tends to have more eligible voters than the last.

The next PM will be voted in in by either the 0.003% of the population that are Conservative members or possibly just the 329 members of the PCP.

As a Leave voter I have to say I was surprised at how the markets reacted so sharply and the government (and Boris) ran for cover so quickly. Real damage has been caused. I have to also acknowledge that their are lots of people on my side of the debate that I would not care to spend any time with, let alone a pint or a political platform. It's not a great situation.

Interesting stat about John Major. Two weeks agoTheresa May would have been dismissed as a right wing nutcase, now she is the great hope.

Don't worry about the markets. It is the real economy that has hit the buffers, the experts tell me that it is far worse than they forecast.

Boris - I don't think any of us had factored in that the Leave Campaign was not a cohesive group. It did not even have a leader, how could it possibly have a plan or be able to deliver on any of the many promises. I do not remember anybody pointing that out.

Not by me.

mrfpb

The other interesting thing about John Major is that unlike Gordon Brown, James Callaghan And Alec Douglas-Home, he managed to win a GE after taking over mid-term. The population rarely take to PM's that are thrust upon them by party members or MPs without an election or more likely are fed up with the party infighting that led to a change of leadership.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

The other interesting thing about John Major is that unlike Gordon Brown, James Callaghan And Alec Douglas-Home, he managed to win a GE after taking over mid-term. The population rarely take to PM's that are thrust upon them by party members or MPs without an election or more likely are fed up with the party infighting that led to a change of leadership.

The alternative being Kinnock may have something to do with it

mrfpb

Kinnock - the only party leader in the last 100 years to have the privilege of leading his party to two general election defeats.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

Kinnock - the only party leader in the last 100 years to have the privilege of leading his party to two general election defeats.

I remember seeing an opinion poll saying how many people would note vote for him because he was Welsh, ginger,or bald

rick_chasey

As a member of the bald community, i take some offence.

bendertherobot

As a member of the Welsh and bald community I'd like to say, I'd get in.

orraloon

mrfpb wrote:

Both John Major and George W Bush were both elected on their nations highest popular vote ever

Dubious claim, but is the age of dubious claims is it not?

John Major (Conservatives) in 1992 had 41.9% share of popular vote.
Thatcher (Conservatives) in 1979 had 43.9% share.
Blair (Labour) in 1997 had 43.2% share.

Source: good ol' wikipedia.

What pixxes me off is the degrading of political debate into appeal to lowest common denominator mud slinging and outright porkie pie telling. Is this because there are more, across the political spectrum, who are products of the Oxbridge PPE system and / or have a journalistic background where shouting and sloganising are the norm and you seldom if ever have to own up to your mistakes or live with the consequences of your actions?

rick_chasey

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's just a class thing.

As much as you can draw generalisations from a binary vote of 30 odd million, leave voters tended to be lower, less educated, poorer etc. Higher, more likely to be educated etc.

Majority of leavers have less to lose and don't mind if they give the better off a kicking.

The referendum became a declaration of class war through the vehicle of a ref on the EU.

Note the AB CDE social class split.