Who will be the next Prime Minister

finchy

Yet at some point, our PM will have to go to the EU to negotiate terms of our exit. With the leave campaign having focused so much on immigration, and opinion polls showing that immigration is a very high concern among voters, the government will have to pretend to be taking it seriously. Of course, anyone with an iota of common sense will see that it's a farce. The British governments and the EU governments will know that it's all going to come to nothing, but will the type of person who voted Brexit because of immigration?

oscarbudgie

I don't want to be picky but that poll is flawed, it's pronounced Gove but spelt c u n t

joelsim

finchy wrote:

Yet at some point, our PM will have to go to the EU to negotiate terms of our exit. With the leave campaign having focused so much on immigration, and opinion polls showing that immigration is a very high concern among voters, the government will have to pretend to be taking it seriously. Of course, anyone with an iota of common sense will see that it's a farce. The British governments and the EU governments will know that it's all going to come to nothing, but will the type of person who voted Brexit because of immigration?

You forget that negotiation of terms can only happen once Article 50 has been invoked.

drlodge

I reckon any "negotiations" will become more a question of which options available from the menu that we, as a country, want. Its already been stated that "the treaties are the treaties" so I see little room for negotiating changes to the treaties, especially as we will no longer be a member.

Cameron more than hinted at this in his commons speech (PMQs?) when he talked about setting out the various blueprints and understanding the pros/cons/costs of each so we can decide which option is best.

Once this is done, the Brexiteers will soon discover that they can't have their cake and eat it (kick out the foreigners and keep free trade).

joelsim

New Cluedo character.

I think it was Michael Gove in the Subsidised Bar with an Email.

bobmcstuff

Also this idea that no formal or informal negotiations can take place before A50 is a bit childish, how are you going to police that.

Presumably they are just saying it for show.

finchy

Joelsim wrote:

finchy wrote:

Yet at some point, our PM will have to go to the EU to negotiate terms of our exit. With the leave campaign having focused so much on immigration, and opinion polls showing that immigration is a very high concern among voters, the government will have to pretend to be taking it seriously. Of course, anyone with an iota of common sense will see that it's a farce. The British governments and the EU governments will know that it's all going to come to nothing, but will the type of person who voted Brexit because of immigration?

You forget that negotiation of terms can only happen once Article 50 has been invoked.

I'm making the assumption that it will happen at some point.

joelsim

bobmcstuff wrote:

Also this idea that no formal or informal negotiations can take place before A50 is a bit childish, how are you going to police that.

Presumably they are just saying it for show.

All of it is for show currently. IMO.

The EU will need to have some internal talks about how best to proceed to ensure no other countries go to a referendum, and quickly.

The UK will just keep pushing A50 back (whilst chatting to Merkel).

Then at an appropriate time for both "Hey everyone, an agreement".

ugo.santalucia

bobmcstuff wrote:

Also this idea that no formal or informal negotiations can take place before A50 is a bit childish, how are you going to police that.

Presumably they are just saying it for show.

Or maybe not... after all Germany just had their economic outlook upgraded, they won't give a fukc about Brexit... and it seems the 27 states are in fact Angela Merkel + 26 small players... it might well be that you know what? Nobody really gives a fcuk about britan after all...

bendertherobot

http://gove2016.co.uk/

bobmcstuff

ugo.santalucia wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Also this idea that no formal or informal negotiations can take place before A50 is a bit childish, how are you going to police that.

Presumably they are just saying it for show.

Or maybe not... after all Germany just had their economic outlook upgraded, they won't give a fukc about Brexit... and it seems the 27 states are in fact Angela Merkel + 26 small players... it might well be that you know what? Nobody really gives a fcuk about britan after all...

Bearing in mind they also say Britain isn't allowed to have negotiations with non-EU countries either, because under EU rules an EU member, which Britain still is, cannot negotiate its own trade deals with other countries.

It's stupid to expect that to work.

mrfpb

bobmcstuff wrote:

Bearing in mind they also say Britain isn't allowed to have negotiations with non-EU countries either, because under EU rules an EU member, which Britain still is, cannot negotiate its own trade deals with other countries.

It's stupid to expect that to work.

Junker has also banned EU staff from having secret negotiations behind his back:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjB-KiKq9LNAhVkJMAKHdXyBXIQFggcMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.standard.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fno-secret-negotiations-with-uk-over-brexit-juncker-tells-brussels-chiefs-a3283001.html&usg=AFQjCNGb4EB2XU09KWnESoKXPUsLZD8QYg

Got an email in work today in which my boss compares reaction of Remain voters to five stages of grief

Denial - Anger - Bargaining - Depression - Acceptance

Somewhat controversial (as it is based on a psychology of absolute loss, ie no possibility it will be reversed) but looking back over the last week, it has more that a grain of truth.

haydenm

I think I skipped straight to depression and acceptance, mind you, I might have been like that before...

coopster_the_1st

bobmcstuff wrote:

Think the issue is migration is a huge part of our GDP growth at the moment - when the migration stops, it's going to have a big impact on growth.

Is that GDP growth, or GDP per head growth?

I know which one I would rather have

bobmcstuff

Coopster the 1st wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Think the issue is migration is a huge part of our GDP growth at the moment - when the migration stops, it's going to have a big impact on growth.

Is that GDP growth, or GDP per head growth?

I know which one I would rather have

Well me too, but flagship growth rates are based on total GDP, that's what government targets and makes a fuss of, it's going to look bad for them when that flattens or declines.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Bearing in mind they also say Britain isn't allowed to have negotiations with non-EU countries either, because under EU rules an EU member, which Britain still is, cannot negotiate its own trade deals with other countries.

It's stupid to expect that to work.

Junker has also banned EU staff from having secret negotiations behind his back:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjB-KiKq9LNAhVkJMAKHdXyBXIQFggcMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.standard.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fno-secret-negotiations-with-uk-over-brexit-juncker-tells-brussels-chiefs-a3283001.html&usg=AFQjCNGb4EB2XU09KWnESoKXPUsLZD8QYg

Got an email in work today in which my boss compares reaction of Remain voters to five stages of grief

Denial - Anger - Bargaining - Depression - Acceptance

Somewhat controversial (as it is based on a psychology of absolute loss, ie no possibility it will be reversed) but looking back over the last week, it has more that a grain of truth.

Interestingly that could be applied to out voters. I Would put myself in a circle of anger/depression/acceptance.

An EU Commissioner's idea of an informal negotiation and your''s are two very different things. You have to realise our current position is bent over with our trousers down.

coopster_the_1st

mrfpb wrote:

Got an email in work today in which my boss compares reaction of Remain voters to five stages of grief

Denial - Anger - Bargaining - Depression - Acceptance

Somewhat controversial (as it is based on a psychology of absolute loss, ie no possibility it will be reversed) but looking back over the last week, it has more that a grain of truth.

So many here and elsewhere are still at the denial stage :roll:

They are going to have a rocky few months...

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Think the issue is migration is a huge part of our GDP growth at the moment - when the migration stops, it's going to have a big impact on growth.

Is that GDP growth, or GDP per head growth?

I know which one I would rather have

i thought you did not care about the economy?

there is a demographic time-bomb ticking in this country, which means that the number of taxpayers supporting each pensioner is falling. unless you radically increase the birth rate then you accept immigration, put up taxes or cut costs. The advantage of immigrants is that you don't have to pay £5k a year to educate them and they tend to leave before becoming a burden on the state (pension + health)

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Got an email in work today in which my boss compares reaction of Remain voters to five stages of grief

Denial - Anger - Bargaining - Depression - Acceptance

Somewhat controversial (as it is based on a psychology of absolute loss, ie no possibility it will be reversed) but looking back over the last week, it has more that a grain of truth.

So many here and elsewhere are still at the denial stage :roll:

They are going to have a rocky few months...

as I say, on both sides - it seems you have not reached anger yet

mrfpb

I just thought it was amusing that he thought he could ban secret talks behind his back.

And yes, I think out voters (me included) are in denial/anger/bargaining at the moment. One thing recommended to people in grief is that they don't make any life changing decisions for at least a year. Fat chance of that though.

The more time goes on the more shocked I am (retrospectively) that Cameron and Osborne were unprepared, even short term, to react to a Leave vote - i.e. having a plan for one week to one month following the vote. Cameron came out and quit then the government effectively went into hiding for three days. I'm also surprised It took Gove a week following the vote to decide how flaky Boris is when it comes to leadership, given they had been working together for three months.

May looks stronger and stronger for the race. The Conservative Home site shows Gove in 4th after briefly moving to 3rd following his speech. May on 85 declared MPs, the rest have 55 between them as I write. I'm starting to suspect a coronation next Tuesday.

bobmcstuff

Gove's on board with the "no A50 this year" bandwagon as well.

drlodge

I reckon the next PM will wait until they have a decent idea as to what the implications of "leaving the EU" really are, then put that to that to the vote of the Parliament.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

I just thought it was amusing that he thought he could ban secret talks behind his back.

And yes, I think out voters (me included) are in denial/anger/bargaining at the moment. One thing recommended to people in grief is that they don't make any life changing decisions for at least a year. Fat chance of that though.

The more time goes on the more shocked I am (retrospectively) that Cameron and Osborne were unprepared, even short term, to react to a Leave vote - i.e. having a plan for one week to one month following the vote. Cameron came out and quit then the government effectively went into hiding for three days. I'm also surprised It took Gove a week following the vote to decide how flaky Boris is when it comes to leadership, given they had been working together for three months.

May looks stronger and stronger for the race. The Conservative Home site shows Gove in 4th after briefly moving to 3rd following his speech. May on 85 declared MPs, the rest have 55 between them as I write. I'm starting to suspect a coronation next Tuesday.

it is the nuances of translation - he is enforcing the rules and sending a statement to us.

They had a plan and the Treasury/BofE are working hard to keep the economy afloat. If you say too much in advance the markets will discount it and others will game it. Cameron quitting took away the chance of invoking A50. I don't think any of us thought through the implications of the Leave Campaign not being a cohesive group with a clear set of policies. It is still individuals chucking out promises. I think the new Tory leader will decide what post-Brexit will look like. In reality it is up to us to chose between the Norway and WTO model.

Boris has little support amongst MPs so getting on the ballot was always his problem. I agree it looks like a massive stitch up and would not surprise me if May was crowned and Gove given special role to deal with Brexit.

kingstongraham

Joelsim wrote:

finchy wrote:

Yet at some point, our PM will have to go to the EU to negotiate terms of our exit. With the leave campaign having focused so much on immigration, and opinion polls showing that immigration is a very high concern among voters, the government will have to pretend to be taking it seriously. Of course, anyone with an iota of common sense will see that it's a farce. The British governments and the EU governments will know that it's all going to come to nothing, but will the type of person who voted Brexit because of immigration?

You forget that negotiation of terms can only happen once Article 50 has been invoked.

Yeah right.

Three ways it can happen before (regardless of what is said now).

1) UK comes over reconciliatory and wants to work towards a "mutually beneficial" second referendum.
2) UK blocks everything it can (still being a full and valued member of the EU) until talks start.
3) Everyone just calms down and doesn't act like a dick.

bendertherobot

drlodge wrote:

I reckon the next PM will wait until they have a decent idea as to what the implications of "leaving the EU" really are, then put that to that to the vote of the Parliament.

Probably based on the advice of quite a lot of experts. Including the now vaunted by all sides, Carney

mrfpb

Incoidently, SC, what did you make of the Gilt sale today? (rates were briefly negative for the first time ever)

mrfpb

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Boris has little support amongst MPs so getting on the ballot was always his problem. I agree it looks like a massive stitch up and would not surprise me if May was crowned and Gove given special role to deal with Brexit.

The main problem with a coronation is that it brings the decision making forward by 2 months - May will be under pressure to invoke A.50 (from the EU) starting 5th July rather than 9th Sept. She has said not this year, but if she starts prevaricating or stalling next week the uncertainty just continues, and the market recovery (what there is') will be reversed.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

Incoidently, SC, what did you make of the Gilt sale today? (rates were briefly negative for the first time ever)

was it a sale or secondary market? I can not make my mind up whether it is good news because it means the market still trusts us to pay it back so making it easy to sell more debt in the upcoming years. Or is it a sign of how fucked we are that people are so scared that they are willing to pay the govt to hold their money for them.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Boris has little support amongst MPs so getting on the ballot was always his problem. I agree it looks like a massive stitch up and would not surprise me if May was crowned and Gove given special role to deal with Brexit.

The main problem with a coronation is that it brings the decision making forward by 2 months - May will be under pressure to invoke A.50 (from the EU) starting 5th July rather than 9th Sept. She has said not this year, but if she starts prevaricating or stalling next week the uncertainty just continues, and the market recovery (what there is') will be reversed.

I could not agree more. They will still need to agree on what life will look like post Brexit. Sorry if you have answered before but what is your preferred option - I am assuming WTO plus whatever we can get.

surrey_commuter

bendertherobot wrote:

drlodge wrote:

I reckon the next PM will wait until they have a decent idea as to what the implications of "leaving the EU" really are, then put that to that to the vote of the Parliament.

Probably based on the advice of quite a lot of experts. Including the now vaunted by all sides, Carney

A commanding performance yesterday but the spikiness of his display makes me fear he could quit if he carries on getting sh1t from the expert deniers. Maybe we should have Rees Mogg incarcerated just to be on the safe side.