Who will be the next Prime Minister

ugo.santalucia

life post Brexit... I just discovered that as a UK citizen you have some extra rights to live and work in Saudi Arabia, over a bog standard EU citizen, so that's something to look forward to...

drlodge

Well I don't think I'll be going to Saudi Arabia any time soon. By their definition, I'm a terrorist.

mrfpb

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Boris has little support amongst MPs so getting on the ballot was always his problem. I agree it looks like a massive stitch up and would not surprise me if May was crowned and Gove given special role to deal with Brexit.

The main problem with a coronation is that it brings the decision making forward by 2 months - May will be under pressure to invoke A.50 (from the EU) starting 5th July rather than 9th Sept. She has said not this year, but if she starts prevaricating or stalling next week the uncertainty just continues, and the market recovery (what there is') will be reversed.

I could not agree more. They will still need to agree on what life will look like post Brexit. Sorry if you have answered before but what is your preferred option - I am assuming WTO plus whatever we can get.

I was thinking a more robust version of the Swiss model - ie take the sum of Swiss model that has accumulated over the years as the starting point and negotiate a more comprehensive single deal with the limits on freedom of movement included.

Surrey Commuter wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

drlodge wrote:

I reckon the next PM will wait until they have a decent idea as to what the implications of "leaving the EU" really are, then put that to that to the vote of the Parliament.

Probably based on the advice of quite a lot of experts. Including the now vaunted by all sides, Carney

A commanding performance yesterday but the spikiness of his display makes me fear he could quit if he carries on getting sh1t from the expert deniers. Maybe we should have Rees Mogg incarcerated just to be on the safe side.

Carney can probably be a bit more free in his speech with a weakened chancellor relying on him to steady the ship. He would breathe easier if there was a coronation next week - so long as Gove isn't at no. 11.

Speaking of Denial, as we were earlier, Boris says this week "has been great in every possible way" and Corbyn and O'Donnell claim that Osborne has bowed to pressure from them in abandoning his pledge to be in surplus by 2020.

ugo.santalucia

Gove looks like one of those puppets that spring out of a box, except a bit more paedo... I bet if Mattel came out with such toy with Gove face, people would complain that looks like a paedo and they'd have to recall it...

mrfpb

#GoveSongs trending on twitter - seems to have been started by Reginald D Hunter

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Boris has little support amongst MPs so getting on the ballot was always his problem. I agree it looks like a massive stitch up and would not surprise me if May was crowned and Gove given special role to deal with Brexit.

The main problem with a coronation is that it brings the decision making forward by 2 months - May will be under pressure to invoke A.50 (from the EU) starting 5th July rather than 9th Sept. She has said not this year, but if she starts prevaricating or stalling next week the uncertainty just continues, and the market recovery (what there is') will be reversed.

I could not agree more. They will still need to agree on what life will look like post Brexit. Sorry if you have answered before but what is your preferred option - I am assuming WTO plus whatever we can get.

I was thinking a more robust version of the Swiss model - ie take the sum of Swiss model that has accumulated over the years as the starting point and negotiate a more comprehensive single deal with the limits on freedom of movement included.

Swiss deal won't happen as EU unhappy with it and more likely to take it off the Swiss. The experts have discounted this as an option.

Surrey Commuter wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

drlodge wrote:

I reckon the next PM will wait until they have a decent idea as to what the implications of "leaving the EU" really are, then put that to that to the vote of the Parliament.

Probably based on the advice of quite a lot of experts. Including the now vaunted by all sides, Carney

A commanding performance yesterday but the spikiness of his display makes me fear he could quit if he carries on getting sh1t from the expert deniers. Maybe we should have Rees Mogg incarcerated just to be on the safe side.

Carney can probably be a bit more free in his speech with a weakened chancellor relying on him to steady the ship. He would breathe easier if there was a coronation next week - so long as Gove isn't at no. 11.

Speaking of Denial, as we were earlier, Boris says this week "has been great in every possible way" and Corbyn and O'Donnell claim that Osborne has bowed to pressure from them in abandoning his pledge to be in surplus by 2020.

bobmcstuff

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Boris has little support amongst MPs so getting on the ballot was always his problem. I agree it looks like a massive stitch up and would not surprise me if May was crowned and Gove given special role to deal with Brexit.

The main problem with a coronation is that it brings the decision making forward by 2 months - May will be under pressure to invoke A.50 (from the EU) starting 5th July rather than 9th Sept. She has said not this year, but if she starts prevaricating or stalling next week the uncertainty just continues, and the market recovery (what there is') will be reversed.

I could not agree more. They will still need to agree on what life will look like post Brexit. Sorry if you have answered before but what is your preferred option - I am assuming WTO plus whatever we can get.

I was thinking a more robust version of the Swiss model - ie take the sum of Swiss model that has accumulated over the years as the starting point and negotiate a more comprehensive single deal with the limits on freedom of movement included.

I think given there seems to be discontent with the Swiss model in the EU they will be pretty set against letting us have it too.

My preferred option (in as much as I have one, since ultimately I would prefer not to leave at all) would be Norway model, but I think that might prove unpalatable - depending on how much Gove and May's immigration cap rhetoric is just aimed at pleasing the Conservative Party members.

If we are forced into A50 then it seems more likely we'll end up with WTO plus whatever we can get, followed by gradually signing new agreements over the next decade or so. I have a feeling "whatever we can get" will be nothing, since presumably we'll try to negotiate one big deal covering all areas, and that will never be agreed in 2 years. The only way we could get anything would be to make separate smaller deals accepting that there will be delays in the more contentious areas. I think this is unlikely.

mrfpb

The thing is, although refugee and economic migrants are different groups, one more bug refugee crisis is likely to make the eastern states pull out of Schengen and demand an end to free movement, especially if Germany continues to unilaterally push for open borders. It is not going to take much to tip the balance against free movement within the EU.

Article 50 as written assumes that exit negotiations take place in a vacuum, but it all depends on how relationships change and how the balance of power changes in the EU institutions and between member states. Nothing is totally predictable, we need to decide what we want and try to ride whatever waves of change come our way.

surrey_commuter

bobmcstuff wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Boris has little support amongst MPs so getting on the ballot was always his problem. I agree it looks like a massive stitch up and would not surprise me if May was crowned and Gove given special role to deal with Brexit.

The main problem with a coronation is that it brings the decision making forward by 2 months - May will be under pressure to invoke A.50 (from the EU) starting 5th July rather than 9th Sept. She has said not this year, but if she starts prevaricating or stalling next week the uncertainty just continues, and the market recovery (what there is') will be reversed.

I could not agree more. They will still need to agree on what life will look like post Brexit. Sorry if you have answered before but what is your preferred option - I am assuming WTO plus whatever we can get.

I was thinking a more robust version of the Swiss model - ie take the sum of Swiss model that has accumulated over the years as the starting point and negotiate a more comprehensive single deal with the limits on freedom of movement included.

I think given there seems to be discontent with the Swiss model in the EU they will be pretty set against letting us have it too.

My preferred option (in as much as I have one, since ultimately I would prefer not to leave at all) would be Norway model, but I think that might prove unpalatable - depending on how much Gove and May's immigration cap rhetoric is just aimed at pleasing the Conservative Party members.

If we are forced into A50 then it seems more likely we'll end up with WTO plus whatever we can get, followed by gradually signing new agreements over the next decade or so. I have a feeling "whatever we can get" will be nothing, since presumably we'll try to negotiate one big deal covering all areas, and that will never be agreed in 2 years. The only way we could get anything would be to make separate smaller deals accepting that there will be delays in the more contentious areas. I think this is unlikely.

Agreed 100% - the Swiss will be lucky to keep their model.

We need to wake up to the fact the EU will never compromise on free movement then decide whether we will ever compromise. We can then move on with negotiating WTO+ the biggest priority being preserving the City.

Frankly I think we will continue acting like a bunch of spoilt brats and end up with nothing but basic WTO terms.

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

The thing is, although refugee and economic migrants are different groups, one more bug refugee crisis is likely to make the eastern states pull out of Schengen and demand an end to free movement, especially if Germany continues to unilaterally push for open borders. It is not going to take much to tip the balance against free movement within the EU.

Article 50 as written assumes that exit negotiations take place in a vacuum, but it all depends on how relationships change and how the balance of power changes in the EU institutions and between member states. Nothing is totally predictable, we need to decide what we want and try to ride whatever waves of change come our way.

There is a big difference between Schengen and free movement. I think you (and Brexiteers in general) are clutching at straws when talking up the imminent demise of the EU.

We need to accept where we are, decide what we are prepared to accept and then get on with it. If free movement is a line in the sand then it leaves WTO and we should just get on with it on that basis.

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

joelsim

Guys, we won't leave.

bobmcstuff

Joelsim wrote:

Guys, we won't leave.

Maybe not, I hope not - and it seems like there is a route for that to happen - but I am not so sure.

orraloon

Joelsim wrote:

Guys, we won't leave.

We can check out any time we like, but...

joelsim

orraloon wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Guys, we won't leave.

We can check out any time we like, but...

Exactly.

We are listening to the experts as last time we didn't it cost the country £500 trillion billion and increased unemployment by 500,000. If we exit now then another 700,000 people are likely to lose their jobs, immigration is now at manageable levels blah blah

coopster_the_1st

Joelsim wrote:

Guys, we won't leave.

Denial - Anger - Bargaining - Depression - Acceptance

Still sitting as far to the left as you can get I see...

orraloon

Miliband was the weird looking one it was claimed...



Please Mrs May, as the responsible adult, can you come and sort out this super-omnishambles as the children have wrecked the country.

ugo.santalucia

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

Not the fishermen, don't forget the all important flotilla and how much cod contributes to the economy...

bendertherobot

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

Not the fishermen, don't forget the all important flotilla and how much cod contributes to the economy...

Ah, the daily backtrack you mean.....
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 10766.html

ugo.santalucia

bendertherobot wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

Not the fishermen, don't forget the all important flotilla and how much cod contributes to the economy...

Ah, the daily backtrack you mean.....
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 10766.html

Gosh, even that one? That wasn't a hard one to back up...

Maybe they should backtrack on legal highs... that could be one way to solve the crisis

darkhairedlord

If they cancel HS2 will they back track on tracks?

surrey_commuter

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

Not the fishermen, don't forget the all important flotilla and how much cod contributes to the economy...

Agriculture and fishing would fall outside a Norway style agreement so they could go back to over fishing. They should have that problem solved pretty soon

surrey_commuter

ugo.santalucia wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

Not the fishermen, don't forget the all important flotilla and how much cod contributes to the economy...

Ah, the daily backtrack you mean.....
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 10766.html

Gosh, even that one? That wasn't a hard one to back up...

Maybe they should backtrack on legal highs... that could be one way to solve the crisis

With hindsight they were acting like a govt in waiting. In reality they were a ragtag collective of chancers who had no authority to make the promises they made. Is it lying? Is it fraud? Has a crime been committed?

norvernrob

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

The thing is, although refugee and economic migrants are different groups, one more bug refugee crisis is likely to make the eastern states pull out of Schengen and demand an end to free movement, especially if Germany continues to unilaterally push for open borders. It is not going to take much to tip the balance against free movement within the EU.

Article 50 as written assumes that exit negotiations take place in a vacuum, but it all depends on how relationships change and how the balance of power changes in the EU institutions and between member states. Nothing is totally predictable, we need to decide what we want and try to ride whatever waves of change come our way.

There is a big difference between Schengen and free movement. I think you (and Brexiteers in general) are clutching at straws when talking up the imminent demise of the EU.

We need to accept where we are, decide what we are prepared to accept and then get on with it. If free movement is a line in the sand then it leaves WTO and we should just get on with it on that basis.

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

If there's no change on immigration policy then UKIP will win a boatload of seats at the next GE and we're back to square one. The whole point of this referendum was to effectively end UKIP and the growing unrest about mass migration, but Cameron's gamble he thought he couldn't lose backfired on him.

surrey_commuter

NorvernRob wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

The thing is, although refugee and economic migrants are different groups, one more bug refugee crisis is likely to make the eastern states pull out of Schengen and demand an end to free movement, especially if Germany continues to unilaterally push for open borders. It is not going to take much to tip the balance against free movement within the EU.

Article 50 as written assumes that exit negotiations take place in a vacuum, but it all depends on how relationships change and how the balance of power changes in the EU institutions and between member states. Nothing is totally predictable, we need to decide what we want and try to ride whatever waves of change come our way.

There is a big difference between Schengen and free movement. I think you (and Brexiteers in general) are clutching at straws when talking up the imminent demise of the EU.

We need to accept where we are, decide what we are prepared to accept and then get on with it. If free movement is a line in the sand then it leaves WTO and we should just get on with it on that basis.

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

If there's no change on immigration policy then UKIP will win a boatload of seats at the next GE and we're back to square one. The whole point of this referendum was to effectively end UKIP and the growing unrest about mass migration, but Cameron's gamble he thought he couldn't lose backfired on him.

You don't think that the Brexiteer are lying awake at night fuming with rage at the lies they were told? Livid at being royally mugged off? And soon they will see the hit in their pocket. Surely UKIP candidates and their clown in chief will be chased from the streets

joelsim

No they aren't even thinking about it.

They are simply repeating 'democracy' whilst sticking their fingers in their ears.

verylonglegs

Surrey Commuter wrote:

NorvernRob wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

The thing is, although refugee and economic migrants are different groups, one more bug refugee crisis is likely to make the eastern states pull out of Schengen and demand an end to free movement, especially if Germany continues to unilaterally push for open borders. It is not going to take much to tip the balance against free movement within the EU.

Article 50 as written assumes that exit negotiations take place in a vacuum, but it all depends on how relationships change and how the balance of power changes in the EU institutions and between member states. Nothing is totally predictable, we need to decide what we want and try to ride whatever waves of change come our way.

There is a big difference between Schengen and free movement. I think you (and Brexiteers in general) are clutching at straws when talking up the imminent demise of the EU.

We need to accept where we are, decide what we are prepared to accept and then get on with it. If free movement is a line in the sand then it leaves WTO and we should just get on with it on that basis.

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

If there's no change on immigration policy then UKIP will win a boatload of seats at the next GE and we're back to square one. The whole point of this referendum was to effectively end UKIP and the growing unrest about mass migration, but Cameron's gamble he thought he couldn't lose backfired on him.

You don't think that the Brexiteer are lying awake at night fuming with rage at the lies they were told? Livid at being royally mugged off? And soon they will see the hit in their pocket. Surely UKIP candidates and their clown in chief will be chased from the streets

I'm afraid they hate immigration that much they are willing to be dirt poor in order to end it. They are being played like a piano by the likes of UKIP and will never see it.

Read this, people with jobs that potentially depend on EU membership, that plant has benefited from EU grants, hate foreigners more than protecting their own prosperity. You can't reason with that kind of mentality.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... urosceptic

darkhairedlord

verylonglegs wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

NorvernRob wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

The thing is, although refugee and economic migrants are different groups, one more bug refugee crisis is likely to make the eastern states pull out of Schengen and demand an end to free movement, especially if Germany continues to unilaterally push for open borders. It is not going to take much to tip the balance against free movement within the EU.

Article 50 as written assumes that exit negotiations take place in a vacuum, but it all depends on how relationships change and how the balance of power changes in the EU institutions and between member states. Nothing is totally predictable, we need to decide what we want and try to ride whatever waves of change come our way.

There is a big difference between Schengen and free movement. I think you (and Brexiteers in general) are clutching at straws when talking up the imminent demise of the EU.

We need to accept where we are, decide what we are prepared to accept and then get on with it. If free movement is a line in the sand then it leaves WTO and we should just get on with it on that basis.

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

If there's no change on immigration policy then UKIP will win a boatload of seats at the next GE and we're back to square one. The whole point of this referendum was to effectively end UKIP and the growing unrest about mass migration, but Cameron's gamble he thought he couldn't lose backfired on him.

You don't think that the Brexiteer are lying awake at night fuming with rage at the lies they were told? Livid at being royally mugged off? And soon they will see the hit in their pocket. Surely UKIP candidates and their clown in chief will be chased from the streets

I'm afraid they hate immigration that much they are willing to be dirt poor in order to end it. They are being played like a piano by the likes of UKIP and will never see it.

Read this, people with jobs that potentially depend on EU membership, that plant has benefited from EU grants, hate foreigners more than protecting their own prosperity. You can't reason with that kind of mentality.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... urosceptic

Quaint how the car workers think Nissan won't leave, they do know they are Renault?

surrey_commuter

darkhairedlord wrote:

verylonglegs wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

NorvernRob wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

The thing is, although refugee and economic migrants are different groups, one more bug refugee crisis is likely to make the eastern states pull out of Schengen and demand an end to free movement, especially if Germany continues to unilaterally push for open borders. It is not going to take much to tip the balance against free movement within the EU.

Article 50 as written assumes that exit negotiations take place in a vacuum, but it all depends on how relationships change and how the balance of power changes in the EU institutions and between member states. Nothing is totally predictable, we need to decide what we want and try to ride whatever waves of change come our way.

There is a big difference between Schengen and free movement. I think you (and Brexiteers in general) are clutching at straws when talking up the imminent demise of the EU.

We need to accept where we are, decide what we are prepared to accept and then get on with it. If free movement is a line in the sand then it leaves WTO and we should just get on with it on that basis.

I think they will throw free movement over the side with all the other promises meaning we can do a Norway - which will have the effect of p1ssing everybody off.

If there's no change on immigration policy then UKIP will win a boatload of seats at the next GE and we're back to square one. The whole point of this referendum was to effectively end UKIP and the growing unrest about mass migration, but Cameron's gamble he thought he couldn't lose backfired on him.

You don't think that the Brexiteer are lying awake at night fuming with rage at the lies they were told? Livid at being royally mugged off? And soon they will see the hit in their pocket. Surely UKIP candidates and their clown in chief will be chased from the streets

I'm afraid they hate immigration that much they are willing to be dirt poor in order to end it. They are being played like a piano by the likes of UKIP and will never see it.

Read this, people with jobs that potentially depend on EU membership, that plant has benefited from EU grants, hate foreigners more than protecting their own prosperity. You can't reason with that kind of mentality.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... urosceptic

Quaint how the car workers think Nissan won't leave, they do know they are Renault?

For some reason the word "think" keeps jumping out at me

joelsim

Just seen this, absolutely spot on. Thinking seriously about the 2 or 3 people I know who I suspect voted Leave too, values so far away from my own.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_fb

Frank the tank

Theresa May, though, to be honest there should be a general election (in which labour would be slaughted) but, none the less there should be a GE. Totally wrong the leader of a nation should be decieded by a handful of right wing extremists as opposed to when Gordon Brown was elected by a bunch of right wing extremists,