BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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Well all benefit from a successful democratic Poland.wallace_and_gromit said:I guess it's also worth noting that Poland's net contribution to EU coffers has been negative to the tune of circa 3% of GDP. Most economies would benefit from that! I guess Poland may transition to being a net contributor soon.
Certainly helps NATO if Poland can afford things that blow other things up.0 -
With negative forecasts for the UK post-Brexit, I only give them meaningful credit when they turn out to be true, as there are far more politics relative to economics involved in such forecasts (and their presentation in the media) than is ideal on the whole these days.surrey_commuter said:
These things bounce around but Germany tends to be significantly ahead of UK/France who tend to be neck and neck with Spain/Italy significantly behind us.wallace_and_gromit said:
The article makes reference to the comparison being on PPP-adjusted GDP per capita, a perfectly sensible measure. It also highlights that the UK's measure is slightly higher than that for France and lower than for Germany. So it's reasonable to assume the UK's measure is broadly the same as for Italy and Spain too.briantrumpet said:It does make me wonder whether British folk should train to be plumbers, so we can return the favour in Poland.
Oh, hang on, no, we ended free movement.
If Poland is going to overtake the UK on this measure (I'm not commenting on this claim) it will surely overtake Italy, Spain and France too. So is this more a tale of Polish success rather than UK decline?
I am no expert but would not be putting my hard earned on Poland surpassing the UK by 2030. Extrapolating the current performance seems a bit naive and if they do catch us it will take some effort from the UK0 -
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I just think Poland's growth will naturally slowwallace_and_gromit said:
With negative forecasts for the UK post-Brexit, I only give them meaningful credit when they turn out to be true, as there are far more politics relative to economics involved in such forecasts (and their presentation in the media) than is ideal on the whole these days.surrey_commuter said:
These things bounce around but Germany tends to be significantly ahead of UK/France who tend to be neck and neck with Spain/Italy significantly behind us.wallace_and_gromit said:
The article makes reference to the comparison being on PPP-adjusted GDP per capita, a perfectly sensible measure. It also highlights that the UK's measure is slightly higher than that for France and lower than for Germany. So it's reasonable to assume the UK's measure is broadly the same as for Italy and Spain too.briantrumpet said:It does make me wonder whether British folk should train to be plumbers, so we can return the favour in Poland.
Oh, hang on, no, we ended free movement.
If Poland is going to overtake the UK on this measure (I'm not commenting on this claim) it will surely overtake Italy, Spain and France too. So is this more a tale of Polish success rather than UK decline?
I am no expert but would not be putting my hard earned on Poland surpassing the UK by 2030. Extrapolating the current performance seems a bit naive and if they do catch us it will take some effort from the UK
A perfect example of caution with tools such as extrapolation is the Elvis Impersonator extrapolation based on the increase in impersonators sing the King’s demise:
In 1977, at the time of Elvis Presley’s death, there were 170
Elvis impersonators worldwide.
In 2000, there were 85,000 Elvis impersonators.
At this rate of growth, statisticians predicted that by 2019,
Elvis impersonators would make up 1/3 of the world’s population.0 -
I’m all shook up at that stat.surrey_commuter said:
I just think Poland's growth will naturally slowwallace_and_gromit said:
With negative forecasts for the UK post-Brexit, I only give them meaningful credit when they turn out to be true, as there are far more politics relative to economics involved in such forecasts (and their presentation in the media) than is ideal on the whole these days.surrey_commuter said:
These things bounce around but Germany tends to be significantly ahead of UK/France who tend to be neck and neck with Spain/Italy significantly behind us.wallace_and_gromit said:
The article makes reference to the comparison being on PPP-adjusted GDP per capita, a perfectly sensible measure. It also highlights that the UK's measure is slightly higher than that for France and lower than for Germany. So it's reasonable to assume the UK's measure is broadly the same as for Italy and Spain too.briantrumpet said:It does make me wonder whether British folk should train to be plumbers, so we can return the favour in Poland.
Oh, hang on, no, we ended free movement.
If Poland is going to overtake the UK on this measure (I'm not commenting on this claim) it will surely overtake Italy, Spain and France too. So is this more a tale of Polish success rather than UK decline?
I am no expert but would not be putting my hard earned on Poland surpassing the UK by 2030. Extrapolating the current performance seems a bit naive and if they do catch us it will take some effort from the UK
A perfect example of caution with tools such as extrapolation is the Elvis Impersonator extrapolation based on the increase in impersonators sing the King’s demise:
In 1977, at the time of Elvis Presley’s death, there were 170
Elvis impersonators worldwide.
In 2000, there were 85,000 Elvis impersonators.
At this rate of growth, statisticians predicted that by 2019,
Elvis impersonators would make up 1/3 of the world’s population.2 -
Uh huh huh.wallace_and_gromit said:
I’m all shook up at that stat.surrey_commuter said:
I just think Poland's growth will naturally slowwallace_and_gromit said:
With negative forecasts for the UK post-Brexit, I only give them meaningful credit when they turn out to be true, as there are far more politics relative to economics involved in such forecasts (and their presentation in the media) than is ideal on the whole these days.surrey_commuter said:
These things bounce around but Germany tends to be significantly ahead of UK/France who tend to be neck and neck with Spain/Italy significantly behind us.wallace_and_gromit said:
The article makes reference to the comparison being on PPP-adjusted GDP per capita, a perfectly sensible measure. It also highlights that the UK's measure is slightly higher than that for France and lower than for Germany. So it's reasonable to assume the UK's measure is broadly the same as for Italy and Spain too.briantrumpet said:It does make me wonder whether British folk should train to be plumbers, so we can return the favour in Poland.
Oh, hang on, no, we ended free movement.
If Poland is going to overtake the UK on this measure (I'm not commenting on this claim) it will surely overtake Italy, Spain and France too. So is this more a tale of Polish success rather than UK decline?
I am no expert but would not be putting my hard earned on Poland surpassing the UK by 2030. Extrapolating the current performance seems a bit naive and if they do catch us it will take some effort from the UK
A perfect example of caution with tools such as extrapolation is the Elvis Impersonator extrapolation based on the increase in impersonators sing the King’s demise:
In 1977, at the time of Elvis Presley’s death, there were 170
Elvis impersonators worldwide.
In 2000, there were 85,000 Elvis impersonators.
At this rate of growth, statisticians predicted that by 2019,
Elvis impersonators would make up 1/3 of the world’s population.1 -
I think we need a little less talk and a little more action on this point."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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We're caught in a trap
We can't walk out0 -
Someone else musing along the same lines as me that it could be the Tories who change tack over Brexit, especially if Starmer doesn't budge on his "No" to SM & CU after winning the election.
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You might want to read the alternative view on these polls:briantrumpet said:Someone else musing along the same lines as me that it could be the Tories who change tack over Brexit, especially if Starmer doesn't budge on his "No" to SM & CU after winning the election.
https://telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2023/05/09/rejoining-the-eu-is-deluded/
In the past week, two separate pollsters have found huge support for rejoining the EU. According to Redfield and Wilton, 61 per cent of us would vote to rejoin tomorrow. And according to Savanta, enthusiasm among the young is even higher. Of those aged 18-25, support for rejoining stands at 86 per cent.
Such figures make it sound as if Brexit’s demise is inevitable, sooner or later. In reality, though, there’s no need for Brexiteers to panic – for one very simple reason.
The people responding to these polls don’t really want to rejoin. They want to reverse. That is, they want to travel back in time to the good old days, before all this Brexity unpleasantness began. They want everything to be as it used to. Which means membership of the EU on the exact same terms as we had before.
But the EU will never offer us those same terms. There’s no reason to think it would give us the rebate we had (which means membership would be far more expensive). It may expect us to join Schengen. But most crucially, it would insist that – like all countries who wish to join the EU these days – we adopt the euro.
This makes rejoining a non-starter. A hopeless fantasy. Whenever anyone says they want to rejoin, ask them whether they’re willing to sacrifice the pound to achieve it. It makes a big difference. A poll by Omnisis in November last year found that 57 per cent of us wanted to rejoin the EU. Of those would-be rejoiners, though, over a quarter said they wouldn’t vote for it if it meant scrapping the pound. Which, in the real world, it surely would.
It’s funny how things turn out. Remainers used to mock Brexiteers for wanting a form of Brexit that was never attainable. One that was all upside, no downside. One where we “hold all the cards”, and the EU will give us whatever we want.
Now, however, many Remainers are guilty of the same type of wishful thinking. They want a form of Rejoin that isn’t attainable. One that is all upside, no downside. One where we “hold all the cards”, and the EU will give us whatever we want.
Sound familiar?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I'll agree it's currently unlikely, but then who predicted such a hard Brexit in the first place?
It comes as no surprise that The Telegraph, who first started out as backing Remain, then progressively changed their tune to go harder and harder for Brexit as they saw the way the Tory-UKIP Party was heading, should now pooh-pooh the idea of owning up to the carnage and making pragmatic adjustments.
And I suspect that as a result of the way that things have panned out, many people who would have preferred the old status quo and privileged membership that we had would now say that they'd happily go back in on full membership, with the Euro, the EU's many faults and all. It's just a question of which is least worst, not where the unicorns are. At the moment, the UK looks a little pathetic (though a smidge less pathetic than when Johnson and Truss were PM).0 -
Unfortunately if the article is right then not enough people would vote to go back if it means ditching the pound and other likely EU strings that would come attached.briantrumpet said:I'll agree it's currently unlikely, but then who predicted such a hard Brexit in the first place?
It comes as no surprise that The Telegraph, who first started out as backing Remain, then progressively changed their tune to go harder and harder for Brexit as they saw the way the Tory-UKIP Party was heading, should now pooh-pooh the idea of owning up to the carnage and making pragmatic adjustments.
And I suspect that as a result of the way that things have panned out, many people who would have preferred the old status quo and privileged membership that we had would now say that they'd happily go back in on full membership, with the Euro, the EU's many faults and all. It's just a question of which is least worst, not where the unicorns are. At the moment, the UK looks a little pathetic (though a smidge less pathetic than when Johnson and Truss were PM).
As for your assessment of the UK now, not everyone agrees with you.
https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/09/analysts-admit-wrong-uk-economy-pound-surges/"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I'm delighted that not everyone agrees with me. How boring would that be?
Anyway, I'm still amused that I'm not the only one who thinks, however unlikely as it might currently seem, that the Tories *could* revive their fortunes by returning to its Thatcherite embrace of the Single Market. There would be sweet irony, even if that irony has cost rather a lot in the meantime.
On the other hand, we might end up with a LD-Labour coalition, the price of which is Starmer reluctantly allowing debate on re-entering the SM, and blaming it on the LDs.0 -
So let me get this straight, we shouldn’t rejoin because we won’t get the excellent terms of membership we had before we left?
That whole thing sounds like “we fucked up leaving but oh well no point rejoining as it won’t be as good as what we freely gave up”. I particularly liked the irony of talking about people wanting to go back to how we were when the Brexit campaign was basically all about going back to a time that never really existed before we joined the EU.0 -
I'm commenting on what is likely to be acceptable to the electorate rather than making a recommendation. Just a spot of political reality for the dreamers.Pross said:So let me get this straight, we shouldn’t rejoin because we won’t get the excellent terms of membership we had before we left?
That whole thing sounds like “we censored up leaving but oh well no point rejoining as it won’t be as good as what we freely gave up”. I particularly liked the irony of talking about people wanting to go back to how we were when the Brexit campaign was basically all about going back to a time that never really existed before we joined the EU."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I’d rather go back in accepting it wouldn’t be on as good terms as we had before or at the very least joining the SM / CU. Having to accept the Euro would be the one thing I would struggle with, mainly from seeing the problems in the GFC.0
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And thats what the linked/quoted article is saying. A majority are in favour of rejoining currently - until you mention that it would highly likely mean adopting the Euro. Then that majority disappears.Pross said:I’d rather go back in accepting it wouldn’t be on as good terms as we had before or at the very least joining the SM / CU. Having to accept the Euro would be the one thing I would struggle with, mainly from seeing the problems in the GFC.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
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Yes when people realise what it means.rick_chasey said:Do you still think re-joining the CU and SM is that far fetched?
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What, more money for everyone?TheBigBean said:
Yes when people realise what it means.rick_chasey said:Do you still think re-joining the CU and SM is that far fetched?
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I actually think if we were looking seriously at rejoining but the Euro was a deal breaker the EU would find a way around it. We'd still have to lose a lot of the historic benefits we previously enjoyed though which would have made the whole process a complete farce other than maybe getting people to appreciate the benefits of membership a bit more.Stevo_666 said:
And thats what the linked/quoted article is saying. A majority are in favour of rejoining currently - until you mention that it would highly likely mean adopting the Euro. Then that majority disappears.Pross said:I’d rather go back in accepting it wouldn’t be on as good terms as we had before or at the very least joining the SM / CU. Having to accept the Euro would be the one thing I would struggle with, mainly from seeing the problems in the GFC.
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why do you think the EU would be so keen to readmit us? it woud take a decade of work and then the fear of another decade if we went mental again.Pross said:
I actually think if we were looking seriously at rejoining but the Euro was a deal breaker the EU would find a way around it. We'd still have to lose a lot of the historic benefits we previously enjoyed though which would have made the whole process a complete farce other than maybe getting people to appreciate the benefits of membership a bit more.Stevo_666 said:
And thats what the linked/quoted article is saying. A majority are in favour of rejoining currently - until you mention that it would highly likely mean adopting the Euro. Then that majority disappears.Pross said:I’d rather go back in accepting it wouldn’t be on as good terms as we had before or at the very least joining the SM / CU. Having to accept the Euro would be the one thing I would struggle with, mainly from seeing the problems in the GFC.
The most obvious thing to do is join the EEA0 -
This does feel like the likely endpoint.surrey_commuter said:The most obvious thing to do is join the EEA
And there will be a huge degree of national "satisfaction" at the 20 year project to get to this end point, which would see the UK retain most of the things it didn't like (sizeable financial contributions, FoM, ECJ supremacy in many areas of life) whilst having no right to vote on any of the proposed new laws that will affect us.
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the eu doesn't force new members adopt the euro, new members merely 'commit in principle', which is standard euro-fudge for 'never happen'Pross said:
I actually think if we were looking seriously at rejoining but the Euro was a deal breaker the EU would find a way around it. We'd still have to lose a lot of the historic benefits we previously enjoyed though which would have made the whole process a complete farce other than maybe getting people to appreciate the benefits of membership a bit more.Stevo_666 said:
And thats what the linked/quoted article is saying. A majority are in favour of rejoining currently - until you mention that it would highly likely mean adopting the Euro. Then that majority disappears.Pross said:I’d rather go back in accepting it wouldn’t be on as good terms as we had before or at the very least joining the SM / CU. Having to accept the Euro would be the one thing I would struggle with, mainly from seeing the problems in the GFC.
everyone knows it won't happen, but there's no harm aspiring to it, a bit like world peace
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
I would welcome joining the Euro, I cannot be the only one, and perhaps a lot of the younger voters are not bothered about retaining the pound. So it might not be the obstacle that the old guard writing in the Torygraph think it is.0
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Emotionally I wouldn't care.davebradswmb said:I would welcome joining the Euro, I cannot be the only one, and perhaps a lot of the younger voters are not bothered about retaining the pound. So it might not be the obstacle that the old guard writing in the Torygraph think it is.
But economically you could argue that the UK needs more than one currency/monetary policy so a pan-EU one is far too big0 -
if I remember rightly the EU is undemocratic so the lack of a vote is irrelevant.wallace_and_gromit said:
This does feel like the likely endpoint.surrey_commuter said:The most obvious thing to do is join the EEA
And there will be a huge degree of national "satisfaction" at the 20 year project to get to this end point, which would see the UK retain most of the things it didn't like (sizeable financial contributions, FoM, ECJ supremacy in many areas of life) whilst having no right to vote on any of the proposed new laws that will affect us.
Some people just hate the EU so the factual arguments are irrelevant0 -
Problem is though that from a Eurosceptic viewpoint, there's no smoke without fire, so committing to the Euro must increase the chances of having to adopt it. And we saw how powerful arguments about things which only might happen were in the last referendum. So from a UK political viewpoint, committing to the Euro is a big deal.sungod said:
the eu doesn't force new members adopt the euro, new members merely 'commit in principle', which is standard euro-fudge for 'never happen'Pross said:
I actually think if we were looking seriously at rejoining but the Euro was a deal breaker the EU would find a way around it. We'd still have to lose a lot of the historic benefits we previously enjoyed though which would have made the whole process a complete farce other than maybe getting people to appreciate the benefits of membership a bit more.Stevo_666 said:
And thats what the linked/quoted article is saying. A majority are in favour of rejoining currently - until you mention that it would highly likely mean adopting the Euro. Then that majority disappears.Pross said:I’d rather go back in accepting it wouldn’t be on as good terms as we had before or at the very least joining the SM / CU. Having to accept the Euro would be the one thing I would struggle with, mainly from seeing the problems in the GFC.
everyone knows it won't happen, but there's no harm aspiring to it, a bit like world peace
Issues re currency are very important to some. The SNP - before it decided to become a second hand motorhome dealership - was very reluctant to be specific about its plans for currency post-independence, most likely because of the commitment to the Euro that would be required as part of joining the EU, with such a commitment likely to be a turn-off to a material number of otherwise pro-indy voters.0 -
The omain problem I have with the Euro is being inextricably linbked to the economies of other countries (even more so than you are in a global economy anyway). That said, the way our economy is at present we're more likely to be Greece than Germany if anything does go wrong.0
