BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
-
Your link doesn't work for me.
There was lots of analysis post the vote. IDS on the night said the council house vote turnout was way higher than normal.
The guardian even wrote some articles on it.0 -
We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver1 -
Sure. I think the pollsters (and most of us, let's be honest) were surprised by the turnout from those people.Dorset_Boy said:Your link doesn't work for me.
There was lots of analysis post the vote. IDS on the night said the council house vote turnout was way higher than normal.
The guardian even wrote some articles on it.
So I think, relative to normal elections etc, absolutely, the turn out was big in those parts and that part of the vote was underplayed in the run up.
In absolute terms however, I think the land rover owning middle class man who lives in the south were the bigger cohort of Brexit voters.
But that was baked into the pre-vote analysis, so that didn't end up being part of the narrative.
At least that's how I understand it.0 -
The Taoiseach at the time, Enda Kenny, warned Cameron the problem with referendums - 'they're a free kick at the government'
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Would be more interesting if it contained numbers of people who used the freedom of movement. I think more Brits moved to Aus and Canada than many EU countries.briantrumpet said:When you put it like that...
0 -
I guess there is no record, because they had freedom of movement...0
-
I tried to find reliable emigration figures (from a British source) from the UK to different countries over the last couple of decades but couldn't find any.TheBigBean said:
Would be more interesting if it contained numbers of people who used the freedom of movement. I think more Brits moved to Aus and Canada than many EU countries.briantrumpet said:When you put it like that...
However I did find immigration figures into Australia and into Canada from the UK, and the numbers aren't that high.
Net migration from the UK to Australia before 2013 was about 20,000 pa, by 2019 it was under 10,000 pa, and by 2021 it had become a negative figure – net 700 went in the reverse direction !
And wrt Canada, in the 10 years between 2006-2015, on average just over 7,000 pa moved from the UK to Canada, and in the last 5 years this has dropped to average 5,000 pa.
Between 2006-2021, that would make a total of about 330,000 Brits to Australia and Canada.
About 8 years ago there were supposedly close to 2 million Brits living in the EU, half of them in Spain. That figure strikes me as high, but as Monkimark remarked, perhaps pre-Brexit numbers were never compiled.
However, because Brits are no longer EU-citizens, and their presence in any EU-country is now noted, there are firmer figures available for recent years - in 2019, there were 857,000 Brits in the EU, while in 2022 there were 781,000, of whom 315,000 in Spain. That suggests to me that since the mid-1990s, if not earlier, more Brits moved to the EU than to Australia/Canada.
I would also suggest that part of the apparent drop of ~ 75,000 between 2019 and 2022 is because many Brits have taken up another nationality or gone dual, apparently in the region of 100,000.0 -
You are using the net figures for Aus and Canada, but total emigration figures for the EU. That said, it may not change Spain as the favourite place.jimmyjams said:
I tried to find reliable emigration figures (from a British source) from the UK to different countries over the last couple of decades but couldn't find any.TheBigBean said:
Would be more interesting if it contained numbers of people who used the freedom of movement. I think more Brits moved to Aus and Canada than many EU countries.briantrumpet said:When you put it like that...
However I did find immigration figures into Australia and into Canada from the UK, and the numbers aren't that high.
Net migration from the UK to Australia before 2013 was about 20,000 pa, by 2019 it was under 10,000 pa, and by 2021 it had become a negative figure – net 700 went in the reverse direction !
And wrt Canada, in the 10 years between 2006-2015, on average just over 7,000 pa moved from the UK to Canada, and in the last 5 years this has dropped to average 5,000 pa.
Between 2006-2021, that would make a total of about 330,000 Brits to Australia and Canada.
About 8 years ago there were supposedly close to 2 million Brits living in the EU, half of them in Spain. That figure strikes me as high, but as Monkimark remarked, perhaps pre-Brexit numbers were never compiled.
However, because Brits are no longer EU-citizens, and their presence in any EU-country is now noted, there are firmer figures available for recent years - in 2019, there were 857,000 Brits in the EU, while in 2022 there were 781,000, of whom 315,000 in Spain. That suggests to me that since the mid-1990s, if not earlier, more Brits moved to the EU than to Australia/Canada.
I would also suggest that part of the apparent drop of ~ 75,000 between 2019 and 2022 is because many Brits have taken up another nationality or gone dual, apparently in the region of 100,000.0 -
I'm not sure much can be read into figures for people going to Australia in 2020/21.
That said, I'd be massively surprised if France and Spain weren't overwhelmingly the most.0 -
-
rick_chasey said:
Lol like the EU would have the UK.
But surely the likes of BMW and Renault will be insisting to their governments that we should be allowed to rejoin?
Actually, since the UK's car industry has halved since 2016, maybe they might spot a better opportunity to export to the UK than before we self-combusted along with the unicorns.
It would actually be comically ironic if we eventually ended up rejoining and having to adopt the Euro to do so.0 -
-
rick_chasey said:
Yes I think if the realistic terms of rejoining were put to punters it would not be a majority
Yes, I agree with that, though seeing the dial shift decisively into the not-anti-EU territory at least makes pragmatic moves to reduce trade friction politically less toxic and not such a remote aspiration.
If Ireland's boost from Brexit carries on as it has done so far, that will be quite funny too.0 -
Meaning the Euro and Schengen. I don't think either of them would be a bad thing though.rick_chasey said:Yes I think if the realistic terms of rejoining were put to punters it would not be a majority
The Euro would certainly help FS companies "export" their services which having witnessed the hassles with Italian banking, gives a very good opportunity to sell. The risk of the Euro is that your countries wages / cost of living effectively lock you into an "overvalued rate" but I don't think that will be the case in the UK, because we don't really have a huge goods industry that suddenly becomes expensive vs peers. The Brexit devaluation didn't really help our trade, nor has the small bounce in the value of the pound since the turn of the year hindered either (it was bad before and bad after...)
Schengen is just a logical extension of free movement, and IMO it doesn't add significant costs over that, for significant benefits (no border controls, easy to do business with us).
Trouble is selling those to a public brainwashed by 40 years of bendy cucumber propaganda.1 -
Well, it must be true, as it's in the Stevograph. How long do we have to wait before one of the parties puts its collective head an inch or two above the parapet? It seems to be like a game of chicken at the moment.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/24/brexit-blamed-chief-execs-leaving-british-companies/0 -
Yeah it's a f*cking ball ache all round. Everyone's fed up with it, me included.
In my world I guess the only silver lining is I'm spending most of my time placing people in Paris, not London, so my work now counts as an export. Has been the case since 2021.0 -
We. Had. No. Leverage
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
-
tailwindhome said:
We. Had. No. Leverage
That's obviously quite different from "holding all the cards", which I'm sure we did, as we were told repeatedly. Totally different.0 -
Not your point, but in the world of immigration countries trying to reciprocate policies is extremely foolish and irritating. The UK wants to encourage visitors and tourism which should mean making entry easy for those that pose no risk.tailwindhome said:We. Had. No. Leverage
Whether a Brit can use an egate in Korea or whether the EU wants to engage in nosing cutting off is utterly irrelevant to this decision.0 -
Also, the EU is bringing in egates for foreigners, but as ever, things are slow.0
-
Yes, was surprised to be ushered into them departing from Paris CdG, though obviously had to have the passport stamped afterwards.TheBigBean said:Also, the EU is bringing in egates for foreigners, but as ever, things are slow.
0 -
That's going too.briantrumpet said:
Yes, was surprised to be ushered into them departing from Paris CdG, though obviously had to have the passport stamped afterwards.TheBigBean said:Also, the EU is bringing in egates for foreigners, but as ever, things are slow.
0 -
Looking at the data for my placement locations over the past 4 years > I only cover Europe.
Stats are roughly:
2019: 81% London (rest continent)
2020: 72% London (rest continent)
2021: 41% London (rest continent)
2022: 23% London (rest continent)
Nuts. Annoying too, as they pay less abroad.0 -
Arf!
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Ha!
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Frosty must be thanking his lucky stars that that's the case.tailwindhome said:Ha!
0 -
tailwindhome said:
Ha!
Do you think there's anything in the last, oh, I dunno, 13 years, that could have precipitated this?0
