BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Difficult to split out how many of the NHS's difficulties are due to Brexit staff shortages and Covid staff shortages.wallace_and_gromit said:
Thanks. That makes sense. But on further thinking I wonder if the Covid impact being considered relatively small is still valid given the impact of long-term health issues - generally attributed to the NHS becoming just the National Covid Service for many months - on the size of the labour force. Likewise the inflationary impacts.surrey_commuter said:
it is 4% and growing at 0.5% a year so Covid had a bigger short term effect but long term not much scarring so Brexit will be far worsewallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...
This isn't to downplay the absolute significance of Brexit, but to suggest that the impact of Covid is more complex and more significant relatively than generally assumed a year or so ago when restrictions were being relaxed.
Speaking of which, to demonstrate that a year really is a long time, I think it's almost a year ago that "Omicron" became much more than just a Greek letter.
A bloke at work lives in Clapham and his wife nearly ended up being sent to Slough to have a baby due to a shortages of midwives.0 -
September baby? Been common for years that.surrey_commuter said:
Difficult to split out how many of the NHS's difficulties are due to Brexit staff shortages and Covid staff shortages.wallace_and_gromit said:
Thanks. That makes sense. But on further thinking I wonder if the Covid impact being considered relatively small is still valid given the impact of long-term health issues - generally attributed to the NHS becoming just the National Covid Service for many months - on the size of the labour force. Likewise the inflationary impacts.surrey_commuter said:
it is 4% and growing at 0.5% a year so Covid had a bigger short term effect but long term not much scarring so Brexit will be far worsewallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...
This isn't to downplay the absolute significance of Brexit, but to suggest that the impact of Covid is more complex and more significant relatively than generally assumed a year or so ago when restrictions were being relaxed.
Speaking of which, to demonstrate that a year really is a long time, I think it's almost a year ago that "Omicron" became much more than just a Greek letter.
A bloke at work lives in Clapham and his wife nearly ended up being sent to Slough to have a baby due to a shortages of midwives.0 -
nope, a month agorick_chasey said:
September baby? Been common for years that.surrey_commuter said:
Difficult to split out how many of the NHS's difficulties are due to Brexit staff shortages and Covid staff shortages.wallace_and_gromit said:
Thanks. That makes sense. But on further thinking I wonder if the Covid impact being considered relatively small is still valid given the impact of long-term health issues - generally attributed to the NHS becoming just the National Covid Service for many months - on the size of the labour force. Likewise the inflationary impacts.surrey_commuter said:
it is 4% and growing at 0.5% a year so Covid had a bigger short term effect but long term not much scarring so Brexit will be far worsewallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...
This isn't to downplay the absolute significance of Brexit, but to suggest that the impact of Covid is more complex and more significant relatively than generally assumed a year or so ago when restrictions were being relaxed.
Speaking of which, to demonstrate that a year really is a long time, I think it's almost a year ago that "Omicron" became much more than just a Greek letter.
A bloke at work lives in Clapham and his wife nearly ended up being sent to Slough to have a baby due to a shortages of midwives.0 -
Yeah Sept and Oct are the busiest months in the year for babies.surrey_commuter said:
nope, a month agorick_chasey said:
September baby? Been common for years that.surrey_commuter said:
Difficult to split out how many of the NHS's difficulties are due to Brexit staff shortages and Covid staff shortages.wallace_and_gromit said:
Thanks. That makes sense. But on further thinking I wonder if the Covid impact being considered relatively small is still valid given the impact of long-term health issues - generally attributed to the NHS becoming just the National Covid Service for many months - on the size of the labour force. Likewise the inflationary impacts.surrey_commuter said:
it is 4% and growing at 0.5% a year so Covid had a bigger short term effect but long term not much scarring so Brexit will be far worsewallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...
This isn't to downplay the absolute significance of Brexit, but to suggest that the impact of Covid is more complex and more significant relatively than generally assumed a year or so ago when restrictions were being relaxed.
Speaking of which, to demonstrate that a year really is a long time, I think it's almost a year ago that "Omicron" became much more than just a Greek letter.
A bloke at work lives in Clapham and his wife nearly ended up being sent to Slough to have a baby due to a shortages of midwives.
Christmas and new year's resolutions, plus the weirdos who plan for the school year.0 -
good to see that le bureau internationale des poids et mesures, of which the uk is a member (unlike it's ex-eu position as a rule taker not a rule maker in the world of international commerce), has resolved to agree new prefixes of scale, there is finally a way to quantify brexit:
1 brexit == 1 quectobenefit == 1 quettadrawbacks
international cooperation, it's a wonderful thingmy bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
Seems like a decent summary of the bind Sunak is in. If you saw his total non-sequitur answers about people crossing the channel to questions about the economy at the CBI thing yesterday, it seemed to give away his difficulty in answering without lying... he must know that something's going to have to change.Monomaniac obsession with purging the legacy of Brussels bureaucracy threatens to suffocate growth more than the regulation itself, much of which existed to harmonise rules so British goods could flow unimpeded around the continent. Replacing EU standards with British ones is neither a domestic liberation nor much of a magnet for international investment, since anyone trading in both jurisdictions would have to comply with both sets of rules. It hardly matters if the UK regime is notionally more competitive (or just plain lax). There is no escaping the gravitational field of the single market.
The prime minister’s pragmatic side might prompt him to postpone lighting the bonfire of red tape. But he dare not douse the dream. It is what keeps the Brexit believers warm in delusion when cold economic winds blow ever harder in their faces. That is more comfort than the rest of us have.
Nothing remains of the Brexit case that Sunak himself once made. He claims to believe still, although his tone sounds more pleading than passionate – an affirmation of faith by someone who cannot ignore evidence; a leader divorced from any good policy options, trying not to be a total stranger to reality while living apart from the facts.
It struck me, this afternoon, opening a box with a couple of bike rear lights: manufactured in China, but with the CE mark clearly displayed. Even a country of 1.4bn people wants to trade with the EU, and has to accept their standards to do so. I don't see China fretting about sovereignty over the matter - it's merely a function of pragmatic business.
It's just business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91CpbRq9Tiw 0 -
🤣🤣🤣👏briantrumpet said:
It's just business.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91CpbRq9TiwThe above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
pblakeney said:
🤣🤣🤣👏briantrumpet said:
It's just business.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91CpbRq9Tiw
I must rewatch it, for the fifth time (I think). Virtually every scene is a classic, and the memorable quotes so numerous. Genius.0 -
No.kingstongraham said:
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
ddraver said:
The background of that scene suggests you have a different thought in mind to your post... :P
Another way to interpret that scene is that you have to disengage emotion when it comes down to making money.0 -
Shame, I'd agree with you if it was.Stevo_666 said:
No.kingstongraham said:
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
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Good attempt at trying to deflect from my post about perspective. I'll try and help you again when you get your Brexit blinkers on next,kingstongraham said:
Shame, I'd agree with you if it was.Stevo_666 said:
No.kingstongraham said:
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
From what Mrs W&G says from the front line, staffing isn’t a huge issue in terms of filling normal rosters. The problem is the build up of serious cases that pre-Covid would have have been screened out or dealt with early when easy to do so due to so much normalsurrey_commuter said:
Difficult to split out how many of the NHS's difficulties are due to Brexit staff shortages and Covid staff shortages.wallace_and_gromit said:
Thanks. That makes sense. But on further thinking I wonder if the Covid impact being considered relatively small is still valid given the impact of long-term health issues - generally attributed to the NHS becoming just the National Covid Service for many months - on the size of the labour force. Likewise the inflationary impacts.surrey_commuter said:
it is 4% and growing at 0.5% a year so Covid had a bigger short term effect but long term not much scarring so Brexit will be far worsewallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...
This isn't to downplay the absolute significance of Brexit, but to suggest that the impact of Covid is more complex and more significant relatively than generally assumed a year or so ago when restrictions were being relaxed.
Speaking of which, to demonstrate that a year really is a long time, I think it's almost a year ago that "Omicron" became much more than just a Greek letter.
A bloke at work lives in Clapham and his wife nearly ended up being sent to Slough to have a baby due to a shortages of midwives.
NHS activity not happening during the main Covid era. (Some of which was actually people being scared to go to hospitals.)
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Not witch yo bro tho dawg...and never on no Sunday!briantrumpet said:ddraver said:The background of that scene suggests you have a different thought in mind to your post... :P
Another way to interpret that scene is that you have to disengage emotion when it comes down to making money.We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
Explain what you meant by perspective.Stevo_666 said:
Good attempt at trying to deflect from my post about perspective. I'll try and help you again when you get your Brexit blinkers on next,kingstongraham said:
Shame, I'd agree with you if it was.Stevo_666 said:
No.kingstongraham said:
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
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In case you've forgotten your point.Stevo_666 said:
Let me help you with a bit more perspective on this massive issue:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02788/#:~:text=Official%20statistics%20on%20economic%20output,agriculture%2C%20forestry%20and%20fishing%20sector.
Quote:
"Official statistics on economic output of the fishing industry are volatile and can be significantly revised from year to year. According to the ONS, in 2021, the sector contributed around 0.03% of total UK economic output"0 -
In the Telegraph, from one of their mainstays:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/22/pressure-rejoin-eu-will-grow-brexit-not-seen-deliver/We need to talk about Brexit. You might wish we didn’t have to; you might have hoped this country’s tormented relationship with Europe ended with the referendum in 2016 or certainly with our withdrawal from the EU in January 2020. But it didn’t and there’s no point pretending otherwise. It continues to dominate political discourse just as it has since Harold Macmillan first tried to join in 1961 only to be met with a resounding framboise from General de Gaulle.
If you read the whole article (turn off JavaScript), you'll see be says there needs to be pragmatism from all sides. But guess whether the UK or the EU has the dominant role now? Do they now need us more than we need them? And therein lies your answer.0 -
It does seem the the Telegraph is drifting back towards its earlier view that Brexit was a poor choice. If you ignore the "Brexit has turned out to be the dampest of squibs because this Government has repeatedly failed to deliver the benefits it insisted would be forthcoming. It is mostly down to woeful execution on the part of incompetent and politically impotent ministers." bit, this piece by Ben Marlow could almost have been written by a Cakestopper. It might even be going a bit further than Starmer has yet dared to.
The elephant in the room indeed. Is it slowly dawning that, as with Truss/Kwarteng overplaying their hand in their 'fiscal event', that the Brexiteers going too far in their attempt at separation from the EU will consign the extreme nature of that project, in time, to the scrapheap?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/23/incredibly-tories-have-squandered-another-year-brexit/The UK will have to improve trade with Europe at some point, but if a Swiss deal is out of the question, then what is that Brexiteers want? Will the Tories continue to be beholden to ERG MPs? It may well be “the defining issue of why we are in politics,” as one was quoted as saying this week but many of them will almost certainly lose their seats at the next election.
The truth is that Tories are still riven with division, which makes it impossible to discuss anything that might improve the situation for business. And, even if they weren’t hopelessly divided, the elephant in the room needs to first be acknowledged for there to be any chance of a resolution.
Meanwhile, having spotted exactly where this is heading, Keir Starmer is outflanking the Government already so that soon he will be able to present himself as the only man who can do a better deal.0 -
sounds like they've got liars' bregretbriantrumpet said:In the Telegraph, from one of their mainstays:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/22/pressure-rejoin-eu-will-grow-brexit-not-seen-deliver/We need to talk about Brexit. You might wish we didn’t have to; you might have hoped this country’s tormented relationship with Europe ended with the referendum in 2016 or certainly with our withdrawal from the EU in January 2020. But it didn’t and there’s no point pretending otherwise. It continues to dominate political discourse just as it has since Harold Macmillan first tried to join in 1961 only to be met with a resounding framboise from General de Gaulle.
If you read the whole article (turn off JavaScript), you'll see be says there needs to be pragmatism from all sides. But guess whether the UK or the EU has the dominant role now? Do they now need us more than we need them? And therein lies your answer.my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
See above about the magnitude of the issue in hand.kingstongraham said:
Explain what you meant by perspective.Stevo_666 said:
Good attempt at trying to deflect from my post about perspective. I'll try and help you again when you get your Brexit blinkers on next,kingstongraham said:
Shame, I'd agree with you if it was.Stevo_666 said:
No.kingstongraham said:
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If you aren't saying "fishing is so small it doesn't matter" by posting that number, you'll need to explain yourself more clearly.Stevo_666 said:
See above about the magnitude of the issue in hand.kingstongraham said:
Explain what you meant by perspective.Stevo_666 said:
Good attempt at trying to deflect from my post about perspective. I'll try and help you again when you get your Brexit blinkers on next,kingstongraham said:
Shame, I'd agree with you if it was.Stevo_666 said:
No.kingstongraham said:
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
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Can we blame Brexit for the Fisherman’s Friends getting a gig at Glastonbury.kingstongraham said:
If you aren't saying "fishing is so small it doesn't matter" by posting that number, you'll need to explain yourself more clearly.Stevo_666 said:
See above about the magnitude of the issue in hand.kingstongraham said:
Explain what you meant by perspective.Stevo_666 said:
Good attempt at trying to deflect from my post about perspective. I'll try and help you again when you get your Brexit blinkers on next,kingstongraham said:
Shame, I'd agree with you if it was.Stevo_666 said:
No.kingstongraham said:
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
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Please tell me that response isn’t real?!0
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It is real.
So either someone has used the opportunity of twitter has created a very convincing Tice account with a blue tick, or, someone is so stupid that I assume it's actually painful.0 -
I can’t reconcile the likes of him being ‘we don’t want immigrants, we want wage growth for UK workers’ then crying about ‘Union Barons holding the country to ransom’ and ‘sack them all and get someone who wants the job’ brigade.0
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Jezyboy said:
It is real.
So either someone has used the opportunity of twitter has created a very convincing Tice account with a blue tick, or, someone is so stupid that I assume it's actually painful.
Joined 2013, genuine blue tick.0 -
Who is tweeting to whom? I just assumed ddraver was making fun of Remain obsessed people.kingstongraham said:Jezyboy said:It is real.
So either someone has used the opportunity of twitter has created a very convincing Tice account with a blue tick, or, someone is so stupid that I assume it's actually painful.
Joined 2013, genuine blue tick.0
