BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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what do you thinkthe odds are that SteveO is the only person in the world who thinks there are no downsides to Brexit.Pross said:Exactly, it isn't the only problem and I don't think (m)any have suggested on here that it is but when the whole world is facing major challenges being encumbered by an extra one of our own making isn't going to help. It's like going into a boxing match where have both been forced to tie one hand behind your back but you had already decided you were going to fight with both shoes tied together and are now stuck with that decision.
If there was a single mitigating economic upside do you not think that Boris and JRM would repeat it continuously?0 -
surrey_commuter said:
what do you thinkthe odds are that SteveO is the only person in the world who thinks there are no downsides to Brexit.Pross said:Exactly, it isn't the only problem and I don't think (m)any have suggested on here that it is but when the whole world is facing major challenges being encumbered by an extra one of our own making isn't going to help. It's like going into a boxing match where have both been forced to tie one hand behind your back but you had already decided you were going to fight with both shoes tied together and are now stuck with that decision.
If there was a single mitigating economic upside do you not think that Boris and JRM would repeat it continuously?
I don't think even Stevo thinks that, but that he'd think it a sign of weakness to admit it, given he's pinned so much on rubbishing the views of people who have continued voicing their opposition to isolation from Europe.1 -
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
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No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
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When have I ever said that? All I am trying to do here is give some perspective to the doomsterss who want to look at everything through the lens of Brexit and make out it is worse than is really the case. Its been going going on for years in this thread. The argument seems to latch onto whatever minor tale of woe is in the press before moving onto the next. Yawn.surrey_commuter said:
what do you thinkthe odds are that SteveO is the only person in the world who thinks there are no downsides to Brexit.Pross said:Exactly, it isn't the only problem and I don't think (m)any have suggested on here that it is but when the whole world is facing major challenges being encumbered by an extra one of our own making isn't going to help. It's like going into a boxing match where have both been forced to tie one hand behind your back but you had already decided you were going to fight with both shoes tied together and are now stuck with that decision.
If there was a single mitigating economic upside do you not think that Boris and JRM would repeat it continuously?
Why don't people just get their 'I told you so t-shirts' printed and get on with life?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
It won't for that as long as the current forum members are alive. It seems to give some people hope and meaning.rjsterry said:
If you keep posting, this thread is never going to drop off the first page.Stevo_666 said:
Let me help you with a bit more perspective on this massive issue:kingstongraham said:
Lucky for this company they aren't happening to the EU.Stevo_666 said:
Likewise. There are/were bigger issues out there - like a global pandemic and a war.kingstongraham said:
See above.Stevo_666 said:
As mentioned above, Brexit is less of an influence on these matters than wider global issues. Just trying to blame Brexit for everything doesn't cut it and for a good reason.kingstongraham said:
That'll be why they've moved out of the UK only and decided that the EU is a better place to do their European business. Makes sense. If only they'd made it clearer.Stevo_666 said:
The point is that the disruption of supply chains and value chains is mainly driven by global factors - hence it being an issue globally.kingstongraham said:
And where the same guy specifically references Brexit - does that also not refer to the UK leaving the EU? I guess we just can't say.Stevo_666 said:
Working a global group, we see this as well.TheBigBean said:
Battering every business across the world. I'm pretty sick of interest rate volatility, commodity prices and rampant inflation, but sadly I don't get to blame Brexit, because I'm not working in the UK.kingstongraham said:"disruptions in value chains"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02788/#:~:text=Official%20statistics%20on%20economic%20output,agriculture%2C%20forestry%20and%20fishing%20sector.
Quote:
"Official statistics on economic output of the fishing industry are volatile and can be significantly revised from year to year. According to the ONS, in 2021, the sector contributed around 0.03% of total UK economic output""I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I am making a valid point about major global issues and how significant Brexit is in relation to that. It doesn't rely on that article about a single company to be valid. You seem to be wilfully ignoring the point because it doesn't fit with your agenda.kingstongraham said:
Have you clicked through and read anything about this company's decision? Doesn't seem so.Stevo_666 said:
Let me help you with a bit more perspective on this massive issue:kingstongraham said:
Lucky for this company they aren't happening to the EU.Stevo_666 said:
Likewise. There are/were bigger issues out there - like a global pandemic and a war.kingstongraham said:
See above.Stevo_666 said:
As mentioned above, Brexit is less of an influence on these matters than wider global issues. Just trying to blame Brexit for everything doesn't cut it and for a good reason.kingstongraham said:
That'll be why they've moved out of the UK only and decided that the EU is a better place to do their European business. Makes sense. If only they'd made it clearer.Stevo_666 said:
The point is that the disruption of supply chains and value chains is mainly driven by global factors - hence it being an issue globally.kingstongraham said:
And where the same guy specifically references Brexit - does that also not refer to the UK leaving the EU? I guess we just can't say.Stevo_666 said:
Working a global group, we see this as well.TheBigBean said:
Battering every business across the world. I'm pretty sick of interest rate volatility, commodity prices and rampant inflation, but sadly I don't get to blame Brexit, because I'm not working in the UK.kingstongraham said:"disruptions in value chains"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02788/#:~:text=Official%20statistics%20on%20economic%20output,agriculture%2C%20forestry%20and%20fishing%20sector.
Quote:
"Official statistics on economic output of the fishing industry are volatile and can be significantly revised from year to year. According to the ONS, in 2021, the sector contributed around 0.03% of total UK economic output""I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
See above. https://forum.bikeradar.com/discussion/comment/20952242/#Comment_20952242Stevo_666 said:
I am making a valid point about major global issues and how significant Brexit is in relation to that. It doesn't rely on that article about a single company to be valid. You seem to be wilfully ignoring the point because it doesn't fit with your agenda.kingstongraham said:
Have you clicked through and read anything about this company's decision? Doesn't seem so.Stevo_666 said:
Let me help you with a bit more perspective on this massive issue:kingstongraham said:
Lucky for this company they aren't happening to the EU.Stevo_666 said:
Likewise. There are/were bigger issues out there - like a global pandemic and a war.kingstongraham said:
See above.Stevo_666 said:
As mentioned above, Brexit is less of an influence on these matters than wider global issues. Just trying to blame Brexit for everything doesn't cut it and for a good reason.kingstongraham said:
That'll be why they've moved out of the UK only and decided that the EU is a better place to do their European business. Makes sense. If only they'd made it clearer.Stevo_666 said:
The point is that the disruption of supply chains and value chains is mainly driven by global factors - hence it being an issue globally.kingstongraham said:
And where the same guy specifically references Brexit - does that also not refer to the UK leaving the EU? I guess we just can't say.Stevo_666 said:
Working a global group, we see this as well.TheBigBean said:
Battering every business across the world. I'm pretty sick of interest rate volatility, commodity prices and rampant inflation, but sadly I don't get to blame Brexit, because I'm not working in the UK.kingstongraham said:"disruptions in value chains"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02788/#:~:text=Official%20statistics%20on%20economic%20output,agriculture%2C%20forestry%20and%20fishing%20sector.
Quote:
"Official statistics on economic output of the fishing industry are volatile and can be significantly revised from year to year. According to the ONS, in 2021, the sector contributed around 0.03% of total UK economic output"0 -
Is that a "yes"?Stevo_666 said:
You seem to be struggling with the concept of perspective here.kingstongraham said:Apologies, I think I misunderstood. Is it now "yes, this was Brexit, but it's only fish" so who cares?
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Feel free to post any correspondinginly minor tales of Brexit success to provide balance. It would be nice to read about them.Stevo_666 said:
When have I ever said that? All I am trying to do here is give some perspective to the doomsterss who want to look at everything through the lens of Brexit and make out it is worse than is really the case. Its been going going on for years in this thread. The argument seems to latch onto whatever minor tale of woe is in the press before moving onto the next. Yawn.surrey_commuter said:
what do you thinkthe odds are that SteveO is the only person in the world who thinks there are no downsides to Brexit.Pross said:Exactly, it isn't the only problem and I don't think (m)any have suggested on here that it is but when the whole world is facing major challenges being encumbered by an extra one of our own making isn't going to help. It's like going into a boxing match where have both been forced to tie one hand behind your back but you had already decided you were going to fight with both shoes tied together and are now stuck with that decision.
If there was a single mitigating economic upside do you not think that Boris and JRM would repeat it continuously?
Why don't people just get their 'I told you so t-shirts' printed and get on with life?0 -
I would agree about the micro stuff but as the general population has no understanding of macroeconomics the media presumably uses these stories to bring to life what trade barriers mean. They do the same for any macroeconomic story.Stevo_666 said:
When have I ever said that? All I am trying to do here is give some perspective to the doomsterss who want to look at everything through the lens of Brexit and make out it is worse than is really the case. Its been going going on for years in this thread. The argument seems to latch onto whatever minor tale of woe is in the press before moving onto the next. Yawn.surrey_commuter said:
what do you thinkthe odds are that SteveO is the only person in the world who thinks there are no downsides to Brexit.Pross said:Exactly, it isn't the only problem and I don't think (m)any have suggested on here that it is but when the whole world is facing major challenges being encumbered by an extra one of our own making isn't going to help. It's like going into a boxing match where have both been forced to tie one hand behind your back but you had already decided you were going to fight with both shoes tied together and are now stuck with that decision.
If there was a single mitigating economic upside do you not think that Boris and JRM would repeat it continuously?
Why don't people just get their 'I told you so t-shirts' printed and get on with life?
You would think the fact that Brexit is costing the Govt £50bn a year in foregone revenues would be a simple concept for anybody to understand and lead to a reasoned debate about our future economic relationship with the EU.
We continue as we are and the hole gets bigger by £10bn or we do a Norway and retrict the loss to £5bn which gives us an extra £2.5bn of Govt revenue.
I refuse to believe that if people understood this simple concept that any more than a tiny % would give two sh1ts about the ECJ.0 -
They could put it on a bus - "£1 billion per week less for the NHS"surrey_commuter said:
I would agree about the micro stuff but as the general population has no understanding of macroeconomics the media presumably uses these stories to bring to life what trade barriers mean. They do the same for any macroeconomic story.Stevo_666 said:
When have I ever said that? All I am trying to do here is give some perspective to the doomsterss who want to look at everything through the lens of Brexit and make out it is worse than is really the case. Its been going going on for years in this thread. The argument seems to latch onto whatever minor tale of woe is in the press before moving onto the next. Yawn.surrey_commuter said:
what do you thinkthe odds are that SteveO is the only person in the world who thinks there are no downsides to Brexit.Pross said:Exactly, it isn't the only problem and I don't think (m)any have suggested on here that it is but when the whole world is facing major challenges being encumbered by an extra one of our own making isn't going to help. It's like going into a boxing match where have both been forced to tie one hand behind your back but you had already decided you were going to fight with both shoes tied together and are now stuck with that decision.
If there was a single mitigating economic upside do you not think that Boris and JRM would repeat it continuously?
Why don't people just get their 'I told you so t-shirts' printed and get on with life?
You would think the fact that Brexit is costing the Govt £50bn a year in foregone revenues would be a simple concept for anybody to understand and lead to a reasoned debate about our future economic relationship with the EU.
We continue as we are and the hole gets bigger by £10bn or we do a Norway and retrict the loss to £5bn which gives us an extra £2.5bn of Govt revenue.
I refuse to believe that if people understood this simple concept that any more than a tiny % would give two sh1ts about the ECJ.0 -
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
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I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
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Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
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OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.0 -
The Brexit chap gave away his umbrella and now his bespoke suit is getting ruined because it has started to rain, his solution is to jump in the swimming pool as then the rain will not matter.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
Whilst not solving his suit problem it does stop him looking like an idiot for giving his umbrella away0 -
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.1 -
The government is still arguing with itself about Brexit and whether trying to overcome some of the accepted downsides is a 'betrayal' of such. Other parts refuse to even accept that there are any negative consequences even though the Autumn Statement was based on an OBR report that set out exactly what those consequences are. Until they get over it, it will remain a topic of conversation.Stevo_666 said:
It won't for that as long as the current forum members are alive. It seems to give some people hope and meaning.rjsterry said:
If you keep posting, this thread is never going to drop off the first page.Stevo_666 said:
Let me help you with a bit more perspective on this massive issue:kingstongraham said:
Lucky for this company they aren't happening to the EU.Stevo_666 said:
Likewise. There are/were bigger issues out there - like a global pandemic and a war.kingstongraham said:
See above.Stevo_666 said:
As mentioned above, Brexit is less of an influence on these matters than wider global issues. Just trying to blame Brexit for everything doesn't cut it and for a good reason.kingstongraham said:
That'll be why they've moved out of the UK only and decided that the EU is a better place to do their European business. Makes sense. If only they'd made it clearer.Stevo_666 said:
The point is that the disruption of supply chains and value chains is mainly driven by global factors - hence it being an issue globally.kingstongraham said:
And where the same guy specifically references Brexit - does that also not refer to the UK leaving the EU? I guess we just can't say.Stevo_666 said:
Working a global group, we see this as well.TheBigBean said:
Battering every business across the world. I'm pretty sick of interest rate volatility, commodity prices and rampant inflation, but sadly I don't get to blame Brexit, because I'm not working in the UK.kingstongraham said:"disruptions in value chains"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02788/#:~:text=Official%20statistics%20on%20economic%20output,agriculture%2C%20forestry%20and%20fishing%20sector.
Quote:
"Official statistics on economic output of the fishing industry are volatile and can be significantly revised from year to year. According to the ONS, in 2021, the sector contributed around 0.03% of total UK economic output"
Some might suggest that the party needs it to remain in the news because what have they got to show for the last few years?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid, so maybe you've got your analogy back to front. Sure, there are global pressures, no-one's arguing otherwise.
But, as stated upthread, Brexit fallout is something the government can do something about to improve our situation, but is choosing not to because of ideological stubbornness. Hoping that rain is going to start falling upwards isn't going to work.0 -
It's the other way around. Getting in the pool was a conscious decision. Thank you for your help.TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.0 -
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...
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Some of the 4% was based on population difference as well.wallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...0 -
Do I need to post inflation rates around European countries again?kingstongraham said:
It's the other way around. Getting in the pool was a conscious decision. Thank you for your help.TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.0 -
Now you're saying they need armbands? I wish I'd never mentioned the swimming pool now.TheBigBean said:
Do I need to post inflation rates around European countries again?kingstongraham said:
It's the other way around. Getting in the pool was a conscious decision. Thank you for your help.TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.0 -
How about real wages? Which is what actually matters.TheBigBean said:
Do I need to post inflation rates around European countries again?kingstongraham said:
It's the other way around. Getting in the pool was a conscious decision. Thank you for your help.TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.0 -
it is 4% and growing at 0.5% a year so Covid had a bigger short term effect but long term not much scarring so Brexit will be far worsewallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...0 -
Thanks. That makes sense. But on further thinking I wonder if the Covid impact being considered relatively small is still valid given the impact of long-term health issues - generally attributed to the NHS becoming just the National Covid Service for many months - on the size of the labour force. Likewise the inflationary impacts.surrey_commuter said:
it is 4% and growing at 0.5% a year so Covid had a bigger short term effect but long term not much scarring so Brexit will be far worsewallace_and_gromit said:
Is that right? IIRC the expectation is that long term, Brexit would chop 4% off GDP cumulatively compared to 2% for Covid. In the short term, the inflationary and interest rate impacts that are significantly, though certainly not exclusively, the result of Covid-era fiscal largesse and QE are probably more of an impact than Brexit.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:
Yes. Rain is Brexit. Swimming pool is the state of the rest of the world at the moment.kingstongraham said:
OK. So in this analogy now, the person has decided to get into a swimming pool, and is still convinced that the reason that they are wet is because of the rain?TheBigBean said:
Just trying to help with your analogy.kingstongraham said:
I can only assume from this that you live somewhere that it's normal to spend a lot of your daily life standing in an outdoor swimming pool where some people choose to use umbrellas. Otherwise, this would sound like the ravings of a lunatic.TheBigBean said:
Right got it. So you're standing in an outdoor swimming pool in the rain and one person has an umbrella and one doesn't. The one who doesn't is worried about wet hair. A perfectly valid concern.kingstongraham said:
No, it's full of sh!t.TheBigBean said:
Are you swimming in the sea when making the statement?kingstongraham said:"I think you'll find that the reason I'm wet isn't because I refused to put my umbrella up, it's because of the rain. Lots of other things are wet too."
I can live with that.
That ignores the OBR thing (I think) that said that Brexit is having a more adverse effect now than covid...
This isn't to downplay the absolute significance of Brexit, but to suggest that the impact of Covid is more complex and more significant relatively than generally assumed a year or so ago when restrictions were being relaxed.
Speaking of which, to demonstrate that a year really is a long time, I think it's almost a year ago that "Omicron" became much more than just a Greek letter.
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wallace_and_gromit said:
Speaking of which, to demonstrate that a year really is a long time, I think it's almost a year ago that "Omicron" became much more than just a Greek letter.
My sense of timescale has been really distorted by the epidemic.... stuff before (BC) almost feels like a different life.0
