BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    Haha, god, what a mess. Both the article, and the 'government'. I'll quote it in full. The suggestion that Johnson has any grasp of the situation is hilarious. He's probably more interested in where the next drinks party is, wand who will pay for it.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/09/cabinet-split-liz-trusss-plans-rip-northern-ireland-protocol/

    Liz Truss faces Cabinet opposition to her plans to rip up the Northern Ireland Protocol, The Telegraph can reveal, despite claims it could help to secure a devolved government in the province.

    The Foreign Secretary is at the “vanguard” of attempts to act unilaterally to override the Brexit deal in the wake of the local elections.

    The issue has become more urgent following the recent poll, which saw Sinn Fein become the largest party in Northern Ireland, as the prospect of direct rule from Westminster risks further fueling nationalism.

    However, Cabinet sources have told The Telegraph that Rishi Sunak and Michael Gove, the respective Chancellor and Levelling Up Secretary, are obstacles to Ms Truss’s plan.

    On Monday, Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland Secretary, will urge the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to enter power-sharing with Sinn Fein without a resolution to ongoing issues with the Protocol.

    Mr Gove is said to favour a “slightly softer approach and talking for longer”, while Mr Sunak has “always had a problem with unilateral action” because of concerns that it could cause a trade war with the EU that would worsen the cost-of-living crisis.

    Cabinet sources said that Rishi Sunak and Michael Gove are obstacles to Liz Truss’s plan. A second government source suggested that the pair had meddled in the process, telling The Telegraph: “There is a difference between those who understand it and those who seek to involve themselves in it.”

    Boris Johnson is understood to be torn on the timetable for unilateral action, with one source close to discussions describing his opinion on the matter as the “million-dollar question” within the Government.

    The Telegraph understands the preferred “unilateral action” of Cabinet hawks would involve a package of measures, including “red and green lanes” for goods travelling to Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, “trusted trader schemes” to manage hauliers travelling only to Northern Ireland, and heavy legal penalties for those who import goods to the Republic that were meant to remain in the province.

    Dominic Raab, the Deputy Prime Minister, said on Sunday that the issue must be resolved within “weeks and months”, with a Whitehall source adding that the elections had created increased urgency. “For all the lofty talk about the restoration of power-sharing, that is not happening until the Protocol is resolved,” they said.

    Mr Lewis is thought to be bullish, believing that talks with the EU are now at a “last chance saloon”. On Monday, he will meet with the leaders of the DUP, Sinn Fein, the Alliance, the Ulster Unionist Party and the Social Democratic and Labour Party.

    Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland Secretary, will urge the Democratic Unionist Party to enter power-sharing with Sinn Fein CREDIT: Victoria Jones/PA Wire
    He will tell them: “We have to address the outstanding issues relating to the Northern Ireland Protocol, and we want to do that by agreement with the EU. But as we have always made clear, we will not shy away from taking further steps if necessary.

    “However, the people of Northern Ireland need a stable and accountable government that delivers on the issues that are important to them. That is why we urge the parties to come together and form an Executive.”

    Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the DUP, has said he will refuse to join a new administration until the Protocol is scrapped.

    Sources close to Mr Gove said that he would always support the Government’s position on the Protocol, while a representative for Mr Sunak said that he was “relaxed” about whether negotiations with the EU should continue and would defer to Mr Johnson and Ms Truss on the issue.

    The ongoing dispute about the correct approach to the Protocol has meant there will not be any legislative measures about it in the Queen’s Speech this Tuesday, with suggestions of a Bill replaced with “anodyne” language that ministers will try to resolve the border issues.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    How many times have they promised this bonfire? Can't they come up with something a bit more original, like a 'cones hotline'? It's telling that they haven't even got the creativity of the Major government in its dying days. The only two tunes they've got is overturning the NI protocol and red tape bonfires, neither of which they can deliver on, however many times they get their friendly journalists to run the same stories.

  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • HilaryAmin
    HilaryAmin Posts: 160
    We should follow Ukraine's lead: kick out the closet Russophiles (you know who you are) and apply to join the EU.

    Problem solved. ..and think how mad it'd make Putin. He might even have a coronary.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    Is an independent NI any closer?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    Is an independent NI any closer?
    Wouldn't have thought so.

    Not unless oil is discovered in Lough Neagh
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    What makes you say that? Seems to be counter-intuitive.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    Is an independent NI any closer?
    Wouldn't have thought so.

    Not unless oil is discovered in Lough Neagh
    Sounds a bit bleak then.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    What makes you say that? Seems to be counter-intuitive.
    SF taking a bigger share of the 40% Nationalist vote doesn't turn that Nationalist vote into 51%
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436

    Do these results mean Alliance are the kingmakers when it comes to the protocol? If so, how are they going to decide?

    Alliance won't vote to remove the Protocol.

    Will they vote to keep it or abstain?
    Keep it
    But the argument needs to be over by then
    You're expecting a swift resolution of a matter in Northern Irish politics?
    Scope for negotiation seems to be widening to a functional renegotiation of the GFA
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    What makes you say that? Seems to be counter-intuitive.
    SF taking a bigger share of the 40% Nationalist vote doesn't turn that Nationalist vote into 51%
    As a commentator on the radio was just saying, it really comes down to those 'indepedent' voters. Ultimately it is going to be impossible to stay independent on this matter and they'll have to make a choice, the Brexit mess seems to make it more likely that they would opt for a united Ireland.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915

    Do these results mean Alliance are the kingmakers when it comes to the protocol? If so, how are they going to decide?

    Alliance won't vote to remove the Protocol.

    Will they vote to keep it or abstain?
    Keep it
    But the argument needs to be over by then
    You're expecting a swift resolution of a matter in Northern Irish politics?
    Scope for negotiation seems to be widening to a functional renegotiation of the GFA
    Who wants what?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited May 2022
    ...
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    What makes you say that? Seems to be counter-intuitive.

    A United Ireland is no closer today than it was in 1998

    What makes you say that? Seems to be counter-intuitive.
    SF taking a bigger share of the 40% Nationalist vote doesn't turn that Nationalist vote into 51%
    I thought it was more about the result increasingly the likelihood of dysfunction, which in turn will eventually make the Republican proposition more attractive?
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    That is based on the assumption that the DUP will act like total d1cks...

    ...so yeah, I suppose
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    ddraver said:

    That is based on the assumption that the DUP will act like total d1cks...

    ...so yeah, I suppose


    They are currently throwing their toys out of the pram and saying they won't play with anyone, because everyone's being beastly.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    (I think the sensible explanation for TWH's post is that Unionists haven't switched to voting for Nationalists yet. They've switched to non-voting or voting for non-partisan parties)
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Twitter thread on the mechanisms of former an Executive for anyone interested

    (Yeah, I know, you hate Twitter, you don't want to click it....)

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    ddraver said:

    (I think the sensible explanation for TWH's post is that Unionists haven't switched to voting for Nationalists yet. They've switched to non-voting or voting for non-partisan parties)

    Obviously seats =/= votes, but the trend is the same


    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited May 2022
    🚗🚀🔋☀️🛰️🐦🤯

    French President Emmanuel Macron used a speech on Europe Day to put forward a sweeping, avant-garde but detail-light proposal to redraw the political map of the Continent with a new organization that would give Ukraine a closer relationship with the EU short of membership — and could even include the U.K.

    Speaking Monday at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Macron proposed a new “European political community,” which would include both members and non-members of the EU.

    The event served as both a celebration of Europe Day — which marks the anniversary of the Schuman Declaration that paved the way for today’s EU — and a closing ceremony for the Conference on the Future of Europe, a yearlong EU self-assessment process that included a series of town hall meetings with citizens.

    Macron, who was inaugurated for his second term on Saturday, offered virtually no specifics about the proposal. And the Élysée Palace did not provide any fact sheets or other policy briefs as it has on previous occasions when Macron has laid out bold prescriptions for Europe. Instead, the newly-reelected president largely seemed to be improvising, apparently even catching some of his own advisers by surprise.

    The French leader appeared to be animated by a desire to find a solution for war-torn Ukraine, which has pleaded desperately for fast-track membership of the EU in the months since Russia’s brutal invasion.

    Macron said the “legitimate aspiration” of the people of Ukraine, “like those of Moldova and Georgia, to join the European Union, invites us to rethink our geography and the organization of our continent.

    “Ukraine, through its combat and its courage, is already today a member of the heart of our Europe, of our family, of our union,” he declared.

    But even as Macron expressed an outpouring of emotion for Ukraine, which is hoping to be officially granted EU candidate status at a European Council summit in June, the French leader simultaneously appeared to dash Kyiv’s highest hopes.

    “Even if tomorrow we granted them the status of candidate for membership of our European Union … we all know perfectly well that the process allowing them to join would take several years — in truth, probably several decades. And it is the truth to say this, unless we decide to lower the standards of this membership and therefore to completely rethink the unity of our Europe.”

    However, in proposing new tiers of political affiliation with the EU, Macron was calling into question some of the most treasured, cherished and unshakeable pillars of the Union, including a balance of rights and responsibilities that entails fealty to EU law and payments into a common budget.

    And the organization that Macron described sounded a lot like the EU — yet would be open to countries such as the U.K. that had quit the bloc.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-proposes-european-political-community-as-alternative-to-eu-membership/
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited May 2022
    Ah, the French putting pressure on Brussels. Qu'elle surprise?

    Britain may have been the masters of playing off the blocks for their own self interest (when they were still in it) but no country can constantly harass Brussels quite like the French.
  • HilaryAmin
    HilaryAmin Posts: 160

    "The British government’s deliberate leak further indicated that Queen Elizabeth will be expected to announce the incriminating domestic legislation in May at the opening of the next parliamentary session. This would amount to a disrespectful and demeaning gift from the Johnson government to her majesty to mark her platinum jubilee. The queen is recognised as someone of integrity. Moreover, it would be particularly galling for her, as someone who has made a historic personal contribution to improving British-Irish relations, to be asked to announce a measure that is so confrontational and provocative towards Ireland."

    Not forgetting the IRA murdered cousin Louis. She should call in sick.

    She did call in sick.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,398
    Interestingly the EU is now moving to abolish the veto on tax and EU treaty related matters in the EU. After a lot of talk on here a while back about there being no problem as we could just use our veto...

    Quote from a technical update type email I received recently:
    "Report from Carla Valério, Associate, IBFD
    European Commission President Speaks in Favour of Ending Unanimity Voting in Key Areas
    On 9 May 2022, at the closing event of the Conference on the Future of Europe, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated that she has always argued that unanimity voting in some key areas simply no longer makes sense if the European Union wants to be able to move faster.
    Even though von der Leyen did not specify which key areas she was referring to, this statement followed the adoption of the proposal of measures on tax matters at the Conference Plenary, including "ensuring that decisions on tax matters can be taken by qualified majority in the Council of the European Union" (see European Union-4, News 2 May 2022).
    The European Parliament also recently adopted a resolution asking the Committee on Constitutional Affairs of the European Parliament to prepare proposals to reform the EU treaties, including ending the unanimity in the Council of the European Union, following up on the same proposals by the Conference Plenary (see European Union-3, News 4 May 2022). "

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    It seems to me that now is exactly the sort of time you would take action in NI. Europe like ourselves is very much struggling to balance self interest and tackling Russia. Would they want yet more trade tariffs at this moment. Seems as good a time as any.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    john80 said:

    It seems to me that now is exactly the sort of time you would take action in NI. Europe like ourselves is very much struggling to balance self interest and tackling Russia. Would they want yet more trade tariffs at this moment. Seems as good a time as any.

    Indeed.

    Boris's self-preservation priority and the economy being funked anyway seem like the perfect time.

    It's now or never
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    What’s the interest for the EU to renegotiate?
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349

    What’s the interest for the EU to renegotiate?


    Because the German car industr...

    No, hang on...
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Nah I mean it, is there actually an incentive for the EU to renegotiate? As in, in the interest of its members.

    If not it’s not happening,
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    Massively overplaying our hand.

    Should we not actually impose the original import checks which are delayed until at least late 2023 before starting a trade war? Hardly a position of strength.

    Again, it will be SME’s who export which will bear the brunt.

    Fantastic.

    I thought they’d ‘got Brexit done’.

  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436

    Twitter thread on the mechanisms of former an Executive for anyone interested

    (Yeah, I know, you hate Twitter, you don't want to click it....)

    Hadn't fully appreciated the significance of tweet 2

    Under the current framework,
    the refusal to nominate FM or DFN means the Executive can't meet. However Assembly business continues, the Assembly can meet, private members bills can be moved, committees function and crucially, ministers can continue to run their departments on a day to day basis - though 'new' decisions which require Executive approval can't happen

    If the DUP refuse to approve a speaker, all this stops and we're back to the NI Civil Service running the country on reduced funding
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!