BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    Ultimately, with the NI problems and the reduction in trade people will eventually come around to the idea that they're better off being part of the CU and SM.

    I suspect Brexity Tories will do a lot to blame everyone else and not try and find a solution, but that would solve a lot of grief for all concerned.

    you still dont understand them, you should use SteveO writings on here as a window into Brexity thinking. Brexit was not the goal it was major signpost on the journey to destroying the EU.

    Several years membership of the EEA until we figured out the optimum relationship with the EU based upon other trade deals was a very obvious decision.

    They don't want to maximise trade and solve the NI problems.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Absolutely pointless trying to tease apart pandemic related slowdown and Brexit, I have to say.

    Common sense says Brexit has some material impact judging from what business is saying, but you can't work out what is what from the headline numbers at this stage.

    I disagree - stats below show YoY worse for EU compared to non-EU. Yes there are various moving parts but is a big difference

    • Non-EU exports for February 2021 were £14.9 billion. This was an increase of
    £1.5 billion (11%) on last month, and an increase of £1.0 billion (6.9%)
    compared with February 2020.
    Non-EU imports for February 2021 were £18.7 billion. This was a decrease of
    £1.7 billion (8.5%) on last month, and a decrease of £0.9 billion (4.6%)
    compared with February 2020.

    EU exports for February 2021 were £11.9 billion. This was an increase of £4.3
    billion (56%) on last month, but a decrease of £1.6 billion (12%) compared with
    February 2020.
    EU imports for February 2021 were £16.6 billion. This was an increase of £1.8
    billion (12%) on last month, but a decrease of £2.9 billion (15%) compared with
    February 2020.
    Sure but panny d restrictions and depression of trade is not consistent across industries and for all we know they are more heavily affected areas where there is more EU-UK trade than non-EU UK trade. I can think of holidaying and tourism as an obvious example.

    You would also expect there to be a bigger drop for trade that occurs at smaller distances than trade that occurs over larger distances as a result of panny d economic depression, as they are likely to be more predicated on in-person interaction.

    Am happy to point out where Brexit is costly but if we anchor expectations too low than the Stevos of this world will claim victory when the cost is *only* x, when x is still loads over a long period of time.
    So the FT disagrees with me:
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Can't read that, but 42% down followed by 46% up is 15% down - but from December which was already up.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    It’s a volatile pattern from Brexit alone compounded by the effects of the pandemic.

    I’d be incredibly reticent to claim anything from 3 months trade in isolation without a tonne of data to analyse.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    Can't read that, but 42% down followed by 46% up is 15% down - but from December which was already up.



    Britain’s trade levels with the EU have been volatile and partially recovered in February from sharp falls in January when Brexit border controls were introduced and the most recent coronavirus wave was at its peak, but still remained below pre-Brexit levels.

    The rise still left UK exports to the EU 15 per cent down on December’s level, similar to the level of the Brexit-related drop in trade between the UK and the EU expected in the longer term by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    Exports to the EU were 22 per cent lower than February 2019 levels and imports 26 per cent lower than in the same month two years ago well before the impact of both Brexit and Covid-19 on the figures.

    The movements in British trade with the EU were far greater than those for non-EU countries, indicating that Brexit is the most likely cause of the movements. It is likely to take some months before trading patterns settle down after initial border controls created deep problems for some industries.

  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    There was some Twitter discussion that the value of material moving between UK and EU due the production of the vaccines may be significant in those figures
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    Section from a talk I listened to last night...

    As a services superpower in trade terms, the second largest exporter in the world, we probably have more scope for regulatory divergence. But before taking it, carefully, there is one step that almost all trade specialists, including some of the most passionate Brexiteers, agree will do more for UK services trade than any other.

    Abolish the Home Office. The department that makes it as difficult and expensive as possible for foreigners, spending money and signing contracts here, to visit, including at times those invited to trade meetings arranged by other parts of government.


    Whole lot (and it is a lot!) here - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-trade-policy-after-brexit-david-henig/
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    lol good luck.
  • elbowloh
    elbowloh Posts: 7,078
    ddraver said:

    Section from a talk I listened to last night...

    As a services superpower in trade terms, the second largest exporter in the world, we probably have more scope for regulatory divergence. But before taking it, carefully, there is one step that almost all trade specialists, including some of the most passionate Brexiteers, agree will do more for UK services trade than any other.

    Abolish the Home Office. The department that makes it as difficult and expensive as possible for foreigners, spending money and signing contracts here, to visit, including at times those invited to trade meetings arranged by other parts of government.


    Whole lot (and it is a lot!) here - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-trade-policy-after-brexit-david-henig/
    I think they don't know everything that the Home Office does.

    As an example, my sister in law is fairly high up in the Home Office. She was largely responsible for finding homes for those unaccompanied children refugees from Syria. She was also involved in finding homes for Grenfell victims after the government took over from Kensington and Chelsea borough council. She had PTSD symptoms from having to deal with that.
    Felt F1 2014
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  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412
    A warning from Michel Barnier over France and Frexit. I wonder whether our resident France watchers feel this is justified?
    https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/michel-barnier-warns-frexit-remains-risk-ahead-presidential/

    Quote:
    "Michel Barnier has warned that France could follow the UK out of the EU, as polls show growing support for the Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen.

    He said there was “social unrest and anger” over immigration and Europe’s failure to defend its borders and for the “red tape and complexity” of the EU.

    “We could draw some lessons from Brexit for ourselves. It's now too late for the UK but not for us," the former EU chief negotiator said.

    “We can find, not just in the UK, but here in France, in the northern regions […] citizens who want to leave the EU,” Mr Barnier, who has returned to domestic politics, said.

    He added, “It is our responsibility to understand why the British left [...] it's important for us to listen to the anger that was expressed in the UK, and to implement the kind of changes that are necessary to better understand and reassure the European citizens that remain.”

    Latest IFOP polling shows that Ms Le Pen, who leads the National Rally party, would beat the pro-EU Emmanuel Macron by two percentage points in the first round of next year’s presidential elections.

    Mr Macron is predicted to win in the second round by 54 percent to 46 percent but that is narrower than the 66.1 percent to 34.6 percent defeat she suffered four years ago.

    Ms Le Pen called for Frexit in that election but has since stopped campaigning for France to leave the bloc. Instead she wants to create a “Europe of nations”.

    Mr Barnier hopes to rebuild support for the centre-Right Républicains party ahead of the elections."
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.

    Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.

    Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.

    (it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412
    ddraver said:

    If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.

    Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.

    Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.

    (it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)

    Le Pen went quiet on Frexit before we left so I don' think that was the reason. Even if it were true in her eyes.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Stevo would love to see the EU crash and burn so he can say "I told you so".
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Doesn't he want to stand for president? So anything that makes him look a safer bet to beat le pen is cool.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412

    Stevo would love to see the EU crash and burn so he can say "I told you so".

    I predicted there would be issues at some point in the future, true. I will only say that because people like you refused to even countenance the possibility of anything like that ever happening. Surely a history grad should know that empires rise and fall, even wannabe empires.

    A bit like you wanting to see the UK crash and burn post Brexit so you could say the same thing? Despite you living in the UK. Hey ho.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,560
    ddraver said:

    If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.

    Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.

    Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.

    (it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)

    Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.

    Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    OK Le Pen, calm down.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry

    Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved

    In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412

    OK Le Pen, calm down.

    Just out of curiosity, who is the name calling aimed at?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412

    Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry

    Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved

    In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.

    A worthy EU rule.

    What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Stevo_666 said:

    Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry

    Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved

    In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.

    A worthy EU rule.

    What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?
    Cream
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554

    ddraver said:

    If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.

    Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.

    Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.

    (it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)

    Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.

    Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
    🤣

    Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
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  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    rjsterry said:

    ddraver said:

    If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.

    Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.

    Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.

    (it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)

    Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.

    Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
    🤣

    Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.
    I nearly commented on that too, incredible to read people actually feel like that.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,352
    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo would love to see the EU crash and burn so he can say "I told you so".

    I predicted there would be issues at some point in the future, true. I will only say that because people like you refused to even countenance the possibility of anything like that ever happening. Surely a history grad should know that empires rise and fall, even wannabe empires.

    A bit like you wanting to see the UK crash and burn post Brexit so you could say the same thing? Despite you living in the UK. Hey ho.

    Do you understand that there's a difference between a prediction and a wish?
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,560

    rjsterry said:

    ddraver said:

    If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.

    Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.

    Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.

    (it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)

    Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.

    Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
    🤣

    Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.
    I nearly commented on that too, incredible to read people actually feel like that.
    So you think your Savoie resident doesn't fell French? (Just pulling one example at 'random').
    I know RJSTerry doesn't believe in nation states, but a huge number of other people across the continent do feel a strong identity with their country and can recognise how those boundaries have been cobbled together over time.
    You also seem to confuse what the eurocrat wants, rather than individual political leaders.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo would love to see the EU crash and burn so he can say "I told you so".

    I predicted there would be issues at some point in the future, true. I will only say that because people like you refused to even countenance the possibility of anything like that ever happening. Surely a history grad should know that empires rise and fall, even wannabe empires.

    A bit like you wanting to see the UK crash and burn post Brexit so you could say the same thing? Despite you living in the UK. Hey ho.

    Do you understand that there's a difference between a prediction and a wish?
    Of course. That's why I used the word 'predicted'...
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412

    Stevo_666 said:

    Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry

    Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved

    In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.

    A worthy EU rule.

    What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?
    Cream
    Certify that it is what though?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited April 2021
    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry

    Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved

    In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.

    A worthy EU rule.

    What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?
    Cream
    Certify that it is what though?
    Dunno tbh.

    Anything of animal origin needs a veterinary health certificate. What that checks specifically I've no idea. I do believe it's not just an EU thing and is standard across borders in different SPS regulatory environments. The UK will insist on the same from the EU (when the systems are set up) as it does from other countries

    It's a huge problem for the NI Protocol as a Tesco lorry may contain 100s of product lines each requiring a cert.

    EDIT It's an 'Export Health Certificate that the product meets EU regulations

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/spice-spotlight.scot/2020/11/30/after-the-transition-period-export-health-certificates/amp/
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023

    rjsterry said:

    ddraver said:

    If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.

    Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.

    Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.

    (it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)

    Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.

    Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
    🤣

    Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.
    I nearly commented on that too, incredible to read people actually feel like that.
    So you think your Savoie resident doesn't fell French? (Just pulling one example at 'random').
    I know RJSTerry doesn't believe in nation states, but a huge number of other people across the continent do feel a strong identity with their country and can recognise how those boundaries have been cobbled together over time.
    You also seem to confuse what the eurocrat wants, rather than individual political leaders.
    I'm questioning in it a different way to RJS, although I do think anyone who defines themselves to a significant degree by what patch of soil they were born on is weak of character...but no it was not about how anyone felt, it was the idea of supression of national identities that caught my eye, I find it a quite ludicrous statement. I was trying to think of all the times the EU forbid the celebration of Bastille Day, told the Belgians to be less passionate about the spring classics or forced the British drink less beer and use sun tan lotion when on holiday.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Last time I went to Europe I couldn't tell whether I was in France, Spain or Italy. Basically all the same now, aren't they? I assume Germany is too, but haven't been there in years.

    Norway still feels proudly Norwegian though.