BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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you still dont understand them, you should use SteveO writings on here as a window into Brexity thinking. Brexit was not the goal it was major signpost on the journey to destroying the EU.rick_chasey said:Ultimately, with the NI problems and the reduction in trade people will eventually come around to the idea that they're better off being part of the CU and SM.
I suspect Brexity Tories will do a lot to blame everyone else and not try and find a solution, but that would solve a lot of grief for all concerned.
Several years membership of the EEA until we figured out the optimum relationship with the EU based upon other trade deals was a very obvious decision.
They don't want to maximise trade and solve the NI problems.0 -
So the FT disagrees with me:rick_chasey said:
Sure but panny d restrictions and depression of trade is not consistent across industries and for all we know they are more heavily affected areas where there is more EU-UK trade than non-EU UK trade. I can think of holidaying and tourism as an obvious example.surrey_commuter said:
I disagree - stats below show YoY worse for EU compared to non-EU. Yes there are various moving parts but is a big differencerick_chasey said:Absolutely pointless trying to tease apart pandemic related slowdown and Brexit, I have to say.
Common sense says Brexit has some material impact judging from what business is saying, but you can't work out what is what from the headline numbers at this stage.
• Non-EU exports for February 2021 were £14.9 billion. This was an increase of
£1.5 billion (11%) on last month, and an increase of £1.0 billion (6.9%)
compared with February 2020.
• Non-EU imports for February 2021 were £18.7 billion. This was a decrease of
£1.7 billion (8.5%) on last month, and a decrease of £0.9 billion (4.6%)
compared with February 2020.
• EU exports for February 2021 were £11.9 billion. This was an increase of £4.3
billion (56%) on last month, but a decrease of £1.6 billion (12%) compared with
February 2020.
• EU imports for February 2021 were £16.6 billion. This was an increase of £1.8
billion (12%) on last month, but a decrease of £2.9 billion (15%) compared with
February 2020.
You would also expect there to be a bigger drop for trade that occurs at smaller distances than trade that occurs over larger distances as a result of panny d economic depression, as they are likely to be more predicated on in-person interaction.
Am happy to point out where Brexit is costly but if we anchor expectations too low than the Stevos of this world will claim victory when the cost is *only* x, when x is still loads over a long period of time.0 -
Can't read that, but 42% down followed by 46% up is 15% down - but from December which was already up.0
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It’s a volatile pattern from Brexit alone compounded by the effects of the pandemic.
I’d be incredibly reticent to claim anything from 3 months trade in isolation without a tonne of data to analyse.
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kingstongraham said:
Can't read that, but 42% down followed by 46% up is 15% down - but from December which was already up.
Britain’s trade levels with the EU have been volatile and partially recovered in February from sharp falls in January when Brexit border controls were introduced and the most recent coronavirus wave was at its peak, but still remained below pre-Brexit levels.
The rise still left UK exports to the EU 15 per cent down on December’s level, similar to the level of the Brexit-related drop in trade between the UK and the EU expected in the longer term by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Exports to the EU were 22 per cent lower than February 2019 levels and imports 26 per cent lower than in the same month two years ago well before the impact of both Brexit and Covid-19 on the figures.
The movements in British trade with the EU were far greater than those for non-EU countries, indicating that Brexit is the most likely cause of the movements. It is likely to take some months before trading patterns settle down after initial border controls created deep problems for some industries.
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There was some Twitter discussion that the value of material moving between UK and EU due the production of the vaccines may be significant in those figures“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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Section from a talk I listened to last night...As a services superpower in trade terms, the second largest exporter in the world, we probably have more scope for regulatory divergence. But before taking it, carefully, there is one step that almost all trade specialists, including some of the most passionate Brexiteers, agree will do more for UK services trade than any other.
Abolish the Home Office. The department that makes it as difficult and expensive as possible for foreigners, spending money and signing contracts here, to visit, including at times those invited to trade meetings arranged by other parts of government.
Whole lot (and it is a lot!) here - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-trade-policy-after-brexit-david-henig/We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
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I think they don't know everything that the Home Office does.ddraver said:Section from a talk I listened to last night...
As a services superpower in trade terms, the second largest exporter in the world, we probably have more scope for regulatory divergence. But before taking it, carefully, there is one step that almost all trade specialists, including some of the most passionate Brexiteers, agree will do more for UK services trade than any other.
Abolish the Home Office. The department that makes it as difficult and expensive as possible for foreigners, spending money and signing contracts here, to visit, including at times those invited to trade meetings arranged by other parts of government.
Whole lot (and it is a lot!) here - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-trade-policy-after-brexit-david-henig/
As an example, my sister in law is fairly high up in the Home Office. She was largely responsible for finding homes for those unaccompanied children refugees from Syria. She was also involved in finding homes for Grenfell victims after the government took over from Kensington and Chelsea borough council. She had PTSD symptoms from having to deal with that.0 -
A warning from Michel Barnier over France and Frexit. I wonder whether our resident France watchers feel this is justified?
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/michel-barnier-warns-frexit-remains-risk-ahead-presidential/
Quote:
"Michel Barnier has warned that France could follow the UK out of the EU, as polls show growing support for the Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen.
He said there was “social unrest and anger” over immigration and Europe’s failure to defend its borders and for the “red tape and complexity” of the EU.
“We could draw some lessons from Brexit for ourselves. It's now too late for the UK but not for us," the former EU chief negotiator said.
“We can find, not just in the UK, but here in France, in the northern regions […] citizens who want to leave the EU,” Mr Barnier, who has returned to domestic politics, said.
He added, “It is our responsibility to understand why the British left [...] it's important for us to listen to the anger that was expressed in the UK, and to implement the kind of changes that are necessary to better understand and reassure the European citizens that remain.”
Latest IFOP polling shows that Ms Le Pen, who leads the National Rally party, would beat the pro-EU Emmanuel Macron by two percentage points in the first round of next year’s presidential elections.
Mr Macron is predicted to win in the second round by 54 percent to 46 percent but that is narrower than the 66.1 percent to 34.6 percent defeat she suffered four years ago.
Ms Le Pen called for Frexit in that election but has since stopped campaigning for France to leave the bloc. Instead she wants to create a “Europe of nations”.
Mr Barnier hopes to rebuild support for the centre-Right Républicains party ahead of the elections.""I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.
Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.
Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.
(it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
Le Pen went quiet on Frexit before we left so I don' think that was the reason. Even if it were true in her eyes.ddraver said:If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.
Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.
Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.
(it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
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Doesn't he want to stand for president? So anything that makes him look a safer bet to beat le pen is cool.0
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I predicted there would be issues at some point in the future, true. I will only say that because people like you refused to even countenance the possibility of anything like that ever happening. Surely a history grad should know that empires rise and fall, even wannabe empires.rick_chasey said:Stevo would love to see the EU crash and burn so he can say "I told you so".
A bit like you wanting to see the UK crash and burn post Brexit so you could say the same thing? Despite you living in the UK. Hey ho."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]2 -
Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.ddraver said:If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.
Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.
Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.
(it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)
Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.1 -
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Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry
Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved
In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Just out of curiosity, who is the name calling aimed at?rick_chasey said:OK Le Pen, calm down.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
A worthy EU rule.tailwindhome said:Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry
Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved
In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.
What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
CreamStevo_666 said:
A worthy EU rule.tailwindhome said:Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry
Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved
In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.
What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
🤣Dorset_Boy said:
Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.ddraver said:If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.
Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.
Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.
(it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)
Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I nearly commented on that too, incredible to read people actually feel like that.rjsterry said:
🤣Dorset_Boy said:
Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.ddraver said:If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.
Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.
Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.
(it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)
Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.0 -
Stevo_666 said:
I predicted there would be issues at some point in the future, true. I will only say that because people like you refused to even countenance the possibility of anything like that ever happening. Surely a history grad should know that empires rise and fall, even wannabe empires.rick_chasey said:Stevo would love to see the EU crash and burn so he can say "I told you so".
A bit like you wanting to see the UK crash and burn post Brexit so you could say the same thing? Despite you living in the UK. Hey ho.
Do you understand that there's a difference between a prediction and a wish?0 -
So you think your Savoie resident doesn't fell French? (Just pulling one example at 'random').verylonglegs said:
I nearly commented on that too, incredible to read people actually feel like that.rjsterry said:
🤣Dorset_Boy said:
Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.ddraver said:If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.
Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.
Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.
(it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)
Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.
I know RJSTerry doesn't believe in nation states, but a huge number of other people across the continent do feel a strong identity with their country and can recognise how those boundaries have been cobbled together over time.
You also seem to confuse what the eurocrat wants, rather than individual political leaders.1 -
Of course. That's why I used the word 'predicted'...briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I predicted there would be issues at some point in the future, true. I will only say that because people like you refused to even countenance the possibility of anything like that ever happening. Surely a history grad should know that empires rise and fall, even wannabe empires.rick_chasey said:Stevo would love to see the EU crash and burn so he can say "I told you so".
A bit like you wanting to see the UK crash and burn post Brexit so you could say the same thing? Despite you living in the UK. Hey ho.
Do you understand that there's a difference between a prediction and a wish?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Certify that it is what though?tailwindhome said:
CreamStevo_666 said:
A worthy EU rule.tailwindhome said:Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry
Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved
In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.
What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Dunno tbh.Stevo_666 said:
Certify that it is what though?tailwindhome said:
CreamStevo_666 said:
A worthy EU rule.tailwindhome said:Logistics manager doing his nut at work because he can't get a load of Baileys from a supplier in England onto a ferry
Needs a vet certificate before it can be moved
In all likelihood it originated in Belfast before being delivered to England.
What exactly does the vet have to certify in relation to bottles of Baileys?
Anything of animal origin needs a veterinary health certificate. What that checks specifically I've no idea. I do believe it's not just an EU thing and is standard across borders in different SPS regulatory environments. The UK will insist on the same from the EU (when the systems are set up) as it does from other countries
It's a huge problem for the NI Protocol as a Tesco lorry may contain 100s of product lines each requiring a cert.
EDIT It's an 'Export Health Certificate that the product meets EU regulations
https://www.google.com/amp/s/spice-spotlight.scot/2020/11/30/after-the-transition-period-export-health-certificates/amp/“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I'm questioning in it a different way to RJS, although I do think anyone who defines themselves to a significant degree by what patch of soil they were born on is weak of character...but no it was not about how anyone felt, it was the idea of supression of national identities that caught my eye, I find it a quite ludicrous statement. I was trying to think of all the times the EU forbid the celebration of Bastille Day, told the Belgians to be less passionate about the spring classics or forced the British drink less beer and use sun tan lotion when on holiday.Dorset_Boy said:
So you think your Savoie resident doesn't fell French? (Just pulling one example at 'random').verylonglegs said:
I nearly commented on that too, incredible to read people actually feel like that.rjsterry said:
🤣Dorset_Boy said:
Had the eurocrats not been so keen on the supranationalism that so few European citizens seem to want, then the UK would almost certainly still be a member of the EU.ddraver said:If Macron won a second term it would actually be a stunning achievement. The French don't grant their politicians a Round 2.
Le Pen is the Johnson/Trump of the French and unfortunately, it seems people need to feel just how much it hurts to punch themselves in the face before they stop clamouring for it.
Le Pen has had the good sense to go very quiet on Frexit, Brexit having demonstrated so clearly that it's not a good idea.
(it might not do the EU any harm to hold off on the supranationalism for a few years)
Free trade, freedom of movement, much of the harmonisation of standards were all great benefits. The ever further integration towards a single super state, whilst trying to supress individidual national identities, was and remains a huge concern.
Oh please. I can't think of a continent more obsessed with their supposed national identities. The irony is that most of these identities are 19th century inventions to try and paper over the cracks of countries cobbled together from this duchy or that principality.
I know RJSTerry doesn't believe in nation states, but a huge number of other people across the continent do feel a strong identity with their country and can recognise how those boundaries have been cobbled together over time.
You also seem to confuse what the eurocrat wants, rather than individual political leaders.0 -
Last time I went to Europe I couldn't tell whether I was in France, Spain or Italy. Basically all the same now, aren't they? I assume Germany is too, but haven't been there in years.
Norway still feels proudly Norwegian though.0
