BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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Comments

  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,560
    edited April 2021
    "A bit of History" - that's understatement!

    Doesn't it go back to the Catholics being kicked of their lands by William of Orange's supporters, who were protestants, hence the 'Orangemen'.
    Through to the segregation of Ireland after the 1916 uprisings, with GB keeping Ulster which was the one prosperous and relatively wealthy part of Ireland at the time.
    With Catholics being treated as second class citizens.
    With Orange marches celebrating the Catholics getting a good kicking, with those marches historically passing through Catholic areas.
    Coupled with a huge amount of bigotry on both sides.

    Even with the GFA the are still high fences separating communities, the fences being high enough to prevent petrol bombs etc being thrown over them.

    It certainly has allow the thugs and organised crime to rule over areas, with the religion used as part of of the reason.

    It's an utter mess, even though the vast majority of NI folk are really friendly.

    A united Ireland will really upset the Orangemen.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited April 2021
    I know you oldies love a political cartoon.*






    * something to do with reading the beano or viz as a kid, presumably
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    kingstongraham said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Jezyboy said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So how does this NI stuff resolve?

    Do people think it will just calm down after a while?

    It'll calm down a little and the media will get bored of it.

    If brexit and corona continue to scar the economy its possible unscrupulous groups will find it easier to recruit young men.

    In a few (4?) years time when the agreent comes up for renewal/renegotiation, the media will get interested again.

    Both sides (EU and UK) come out as looking like they haven't done all they could, although with the UK red lines, I'm not quite sure what you would expect. I would argue that the DUP should have pushed for a softer brexit whilst they had the government's ear, and should now be pushing NI as a a magical combo of the Single Market and the UK.
    I'm sure there's an opportunity to have a "don't look too hard" policy with minimal inspections while there is no divergence between the UK and the EU, but as the UK is not in the customs union and single market, there will still need to be formal requirements for documentation etc for anything that goes onwards from UK to NI and onwards into the EU - the same as England to the EU. And under the magical combo arrangement, I assume that would have to be between UK and NI. So there will always be some form of border there as long as the special combo operates.

    If you are interested in somewhat less than strictly legal means of making money, that might work fine.
    I think you are looking at the building blocks rather than the end destination which for RoI has to be the unification of the island of Ireland so will play this situation to achieve this end.
    I would argue that the Brits accepted the reality of this situation with the GFA and that is why they are so ambivalent about breaking up the UK.
    I think what I was saying is that given we aren't joining the single market or customs union, there is still no solution that does not have a border somewhere. And I still don't see the UK being a member of the single market and customs union with no powers to set the rules within it. Basically, there's no Brexit that can work for the both sides in NI.
    Agreed
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstongraham said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Jezyboy said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So how does this NI stuff resolve?

    Do people think it will just calm down after a while?

    It'll calm down a little and the media will get bored of it.

    If brexit and corona continue to scar the economy its possible unscrupulous groups will find it easier to recruit young men.

    In a few (4?) years time when the agreent comes up for renewal/renegotiation, the media will get interested again.

    Both sides (EU and UK) come out as looking like they haven't done all they could, although with the UK red lines, I'm not quite sure what you would expect. I would argue that the DUP should have pushed for a softer brexit whilst they had the government's ear, and should now be pushing NI as a a magical combo of the Single Market and the UK.
    I'm sure there's an opportunity to have a "don't look too hard" policy with minimal inspections while there is no divergence between the UK and the EU, but as the UK is not in the customs union and single market, there will still need to be formal requirements for documentation etc for anything that goes onwards from UK to NI and onwards into the EU - the same as England to the EU. And under the magical combo arrangement, I assume that would have to be between UK and NI. So there will always be some form of border there as long as the special combo operates.

    If you are interested in somewhat less than strictly legal means of making money, that might work fine.
    I think you are looking at the building blocks rather than the end destination which for RoI has to be the unification of the island of Ireland so will play this situation to achieve this end.
    I would argue that the Brits accepted the reality of this situation with the GFA and that is why they are so ambivalent about breaking up the UK.
    I think what I was saying is that given we aren't joining the single market or customs union, there is still no solution that does not have a border somewhere. And I still don't see the UK being a member of the single market and customs union with no powers to set the rules within it. Basically, there's no Brexit that can work for the both sides in NI.
    Agreed
    It's been so tediously obvious all along hasn't it. As demonstrated in that 2016 thread Brian shared.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    edited April 2021
    One of my virtual teammates is in Belfast at the moment and thought it necessary to give an explainer for us given that the UK Gov that employs us hasn't thought to even mention that calls might be a bit tense this week...

    It's quite hard to explain how mainland Brits simply don't care that a war that happened IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY might be restarting again
    .
    .
    kingstongraham said:


    I think what I was saying is that given we aren't joining the single market or customs union, there is still no solution that does not have a border somewhere. And I still don't see the UK being a member of the single market and customs union with no powers to set the rules within it. Basically, there's no Brexit that can work for the both sides in NI.


    I reckon as soon as the adults are back in the room we will quietly use our sOvrEIgNtY to rejoin an SPS Union. Is there literally anyone in the country that wants to reduce our food standards? From there starts the inevitable process of alignment.

    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Jezyboy said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So how does this NI stuff resolve?

    Do people think it will just calm down after a while?

    It'll calm down a little and the media will get bored of it.

    If brexit and corona continue to scar the economy its possible unscrupulous groups will find it easier to recruit young men.

    In a few (4?) years time when the agreent comes up for renewal/renegotiation, the media will get interested again.

    Both sides (EU and UK) come out as looking like they haven't done all they could, although with the UK red lines, I'm not quite sure what you would expect. I would argue that the DUP should have pushed for a softer brexit whilst they had the government's ear, and should now be pushing NI as a a magical combo of the Single Market and the UK.
    I'm sure there's an opportunity to have a "don't look too hard" policy with minimal inspections while there is no divergence between the UK and the EU, but as the UK is not in the customs union and single market, there will still need to be formal requirements for documentation etc for anything that goes onwards from UK to NI and onwards into the EU - the same as England to the EU. And under the magical combo arrangement, I assume that would have to be between UK and NI. So there will always be some form of border there as long as the special combo operates.

    If you are interested in somewhat less than strictly legal means of making money, that might work fine.
    I think you are looking at the building blocks rather than the end destination which for RoI has to be the unification of the island of Ireland so will play this situation to achieve this end.
    I would argue that the English accepted the reality of this situation with the GFA and that is why they are so ambivalent about breaking up the UK.
    I think that needs correcting. The GFA allowed things to be close enough to a united Ireland for the nationalists without enraging the Unionists and vice versa. I don't think Unionists are remotely accepting of any shift closer to a united Ireland.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    ddraver said:

    One of my virtual teammates is in Belfast at the moment and thought it necessary to give an explainer for us given that the UK Gov that employs us hasn't thought to even mention that calls might be a bit tense this week...

    It's quite hard to explain how mainland Brits simply don't care that a war that happened IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY might be restarting again
    .
    .

    kingstongraham said:


    I think what I was saying is that given we aren't joining the single market or customs union, there is still no solution that does not have a border somewhere. And I still don't see the UK being a member of the single market and customs union with no powers to set the rules within it. Basically, there's no Brexit that can work for the both sides in NI.


    I reckon as soon as the adults are back in the room we will quietly use our sOvrEIgNtY to rejoin an SPS Union. Is there literally anyone in the country that wants to reduce our food standards? From there starts the inevitable process of alignment.

    I found this very funny under the thread about the burning bus:


    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    Perfect!

    😥
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    ddraver said:

    One of my virtual teammates is in Belfast at the moment and thought it necessary to give an explainer for us given that the UK Gov that employs us hasn't thought to even mention that calls might be a bit tense this week...

    It's quite hard to explain how mainland Brits simply don't care that a war that happened IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY might be restarting again
    .
    .

    kingstongraham said:


    I think what I was saying is that given we aren't joining the single market or customs union, there is still no solution that does not have a border somewhere. And I still don't see the UK being a member of the single market and customs union with no powers to set the rules within it. Basically, there's no Brexit that can work for the both sides in NI.


    I reckon as soon as the adults are back in the room we will quietly use our sOvrEIgNtY to rejoin an SPS Union. Is there literally anyone in the country that wants to reduce our food standards? From there starts the inevitable process of alignment.

    I think you are forgetting the jewel in the unicorn crown of the sunlit uplands of milk and honey - commonly know as the US trade deal which will need a lowering of our food standards
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    I'm not forgetting it....
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Dorset_Boy said:

    "A bit of History" - that's understatement!

    Doesn't it go back to the Catholics being kicked of their lands by William of Orange's supporters, who were protestants, hence the 'Orangemen'.
    Through to the segregation of Ireland after the 1916 uprisings, with GB keeping Ulster which was the one prosperous and relatively wealthy part of Ireland at the time.
    With Catholics being treated as second class citizens.
    With Orange marches celebrating the Catholics getting a good kicking, with those marches historically passing through Catholic areas.
    Coupled with a huge amount of bigotry on both sides.

    Even with the GFA the are still high fences separating communities, the fences being high enough to prevent petrol bombs etc being thrown over them.

    It certainly has allow the thugs and organised crime to rule over areas, with the religion used as part of of the reason.

    It's an utter mess, even though the vast majority of NI folk are really friendly.

    A united Ireland will really upset the Orangemen.

    But that’s my point.

    People will stab each other for incredibly insignificant reasons. Add in stuff like history and people get seriously aggrieved.

    FWIW, whilst history is very important, I find it incredibly frustrating that people use non-living history as an excuse for atrocities.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    You'll have to get over the Twitter source, but can you imagine this from Johnson..?

    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    John Hume & David Trimble were both great men
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    I might post up more later, but this is as good a piece as you'll read on why loyalists are on the streets

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    tailwindhome said:

    I might post up more later, but this is as good a piece as you'll read on why loyalists are on the streets

    that is a very good article
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,412
    Big bounceback in the Feb trade figures compared to January.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977364/OTS_Release_022021.pdf
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Yep, good news.

    Still lower than comparative but not 40% down. We'll settle into the lower number over a few months. Is there anywhere with the same breakdown as before to show fresh produce etc?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited April 2021
    In more trivial news, a few years ago I ordered a cot/childsbed from an EU27 firm which has weird sizing. No problem, we could just order their bedding when the little one got old enough.

    Fast forward to 2021, it's been a month since we ordered the bedding and it's caught up in Brexit checks according to them.
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstongraham said:

    Yep, good news.

    Still lower than comparative but not 40% down. We'll settle into the lower number over a few months. Is there anywhere with the same breakdown as before to show fresh produce etc?

    I couldn't see any negative news in it. Trade deficit has narrower from Feb 2020. Of course, some will say that just indicates a lack of FDI.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    rick_chasey said:

    In more trivial news, a few years ago I ordered a cot/childsbed from an EU27 firm which has weird sizing. No problem, we could just order their bedding when the little one got old enough.

    Fast forward to 2021, it's been a month since we ordered the bedding and it's caught up in Brexit checks according to them.

    I just don't know why you would do that. Cots are 60x120 or 70x140 - anything else will be a headache.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    In more trivial news, a few years ago I ordered a cot/childsbed from an EU27 firm which has weird sizing. No problem, we could just order their bedding when the little one got old enough.

    Fast forward to 2021, it's been a month since we ordered the bedding and it's caught up in Brexit checks according to them.

    I just don't know why you would do that. Cots are 60x120 or 70x140 - anything else will be a headache.
    The room is small and awkward so the weird dimensions worked for the room.
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Yep, good news.

    Still lower than comparative but not 40% down. We'll settle into the lower number over a few months. Is there anywhere with the same breakdown as before to show fresh produce etc?

    I couldn't see any negative news in it. Trade deficit has narrower from Feb 2020. Of course, some will say that just indicates a lack of FDI.
    It's still early days - January was so low it's because there was stockpiling before moving things into December and likely initial delays moving things into February. Like I say, it will take time to settle down, but be interesting to see the fresh stuff that doesn't wait.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Next month we get to start comparing with a month in lockdown last year, so the Brexit timing really comes into its own.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Yep, good news.

    Still lower than comparative but not 40% down. We'll settle into the lower number over a few months. Is there anywhere with the same breakdown as before to show fresh produce etc?

    I couldn't see any negative news in it. Trade deficit has narrower from Feb 2020. Of course, some will say that just indicates a lack of FDI.
    It's still early days - January was so low it's because there was stockpiling before moving things into December and likely initial delays moving things into February. Like I say, it will take time to settle down, but be interesting to see the fresh stuff that doesn't wait.
    If both imports and exports are down, the implication is that some of the things are being sourced locally (good for the environment perhaps bad for efficiency) or that trade is a mess due to the pandemic and Brexit, but as you say, only time will tell.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Absolutely pointless trying to tease apart pandemic related slowdown and Brexit, I have to say.

    Common sense says Brexit has some material impact judging from what business is saying, but you can't work out what is what from the headline numbers at this stage.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    Absolutely pointless trying to tease apart pandemic related slowdown and Brexit, I have to say.

    Common sense says Brexit has some material impact judging from what business is saying, but you can't work out what is what from the headline numbers at this stage.

    I disagree - stats below show YoY worse for EU compared to non-EU. Yes there are various moving parts but is a big difference

    • Non-EU exports for February 2021 were £14.9 billion. This was an increase of
    £1.5 billion (11%) on last month, and an increase of £1.0 billion (6.9%)
    compared with February 2020.
    • Non-EU imports for February 2021 were £18.7 billion. This was a decrease of
    £1.7 billion (8.5%) on last month, and a decrease of £0.9 billion (4.6%)
    compared with February 2020.

    • EU exports for February 2021 were £11.9 billion. This was an increase of £4.3
    billion (56%) on last month, but a decrease of £1.6 billion (12%) compared with
    February 2020.
    • EU imports for February 2021 were £16.6 billion. This was an increase of £1.8
    billion (12%) on last month, but a decrease of £2.9 billion (15%) compared with
    February 2020.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Absolutely pointless trying to tease apart pandemic related slowdown and Brexit, I have to say.

    Common sense says Brexit has some material impact judging from what business is saying, but you can't work out what is what from the headline numbers at this stage.

    I disagree - stats below show YoY worse for EU compared to non-EU. Yes there are various moving parts but is a big difference

    • Non-EU exports for February 2021 were £14.9 billion. This was an increase of
    £1.5 billion (11%) on last month, and an increase of £1.0 billion (6.9%)
    compared with February 2020.
    • Non-EU imports for February 2021 were £18.7 billion. This was a decrease of
    £1.7 billion (8.5%) on last month, and a decrease of £0.9 billion (4.6%)
    compared with February 2020.

    • EU exports for February 2021 were £11.9 billion. This was an increase of £4.3
    billion (56%) on last month, but a decrease of £1.6 billion (12%) compared with
    February 2020.
    • EU imports for February 2021 were £16.6 billion. This was an increase of £1.8
    billion (12%) on last month, but a decrease of £2.9 billion (15%) compared with
    February 2020.
    Worse levels of trade, but reduced deficit.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    In more trivial news, a few years ago I ordered a cot/childsbed from an EU27 firm which has weird sizing. No problem, we could just order their bedding when the little one got old enough.

    Fast forward to 2021, it's been a month since we ordered the bedding and it's caught up in Brexit checks according to them.

    I just don't know why you would do that. Cots are 60x120 or 70x140 - anything else will be a headache.
    The room is small and awkward so the weird dimensions worked for the room.
    if you are talking about sheets and duvets you are almost certainly over thinking it
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited April 2021
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Absolutely pointless trying to tease apart pandemic related slowdown and Brexit, I have to say.

    Common sense says Brexit has some material impact judging from what business is saying, but you can't work out what is what from the headline numbers at this stage.

    I disagree - stats below show YoY worse for EU compared to non-EU. Yes there are various moving parts but is a big difference

    • Non-EU exports for February 2021 were £14.9 billion. This was an increase of
    £1.5 billion (11%) on last month, and an increase of £1.0 billion (6.9%)
    compared with February 2020.
    • Non-EU imports for February 2021 were £18.7 billion. This was a decrease of
    £1.7 billion (8.5%) on last month, and a decrease of £0.9 billion (4.6%)
    compared with February 2020.

    • EU exports for February 2021 were £11.9 billion. This was an increase of £4.3
    billion (56%) on last month, but a decrease of £1.6 billion (12%) compared with
    February 2020.
    • EU imports for February 2021 were £16.6 billion. This was an increase of £1.8
    billion (12%) on last month, but a decrease of £2.9 billion (15%) compared with
    February 2020.
    Sure but panny d restrictions and depression of trade is not consistent across industries and for all we know they are more heavily affected areas where there is more EU-UK trade than non-EU UK trade. I can think of holidaying and tourism as an obvious example.

    You would also expect there to be a bigger drop for trade that occurs at smaller distances than trade that occurs over larger distances as a result of panny d economic depression, as they are likely to be more predicated on in-person interaction.

    Am happy to point out where Brexit is costly but if we anchor expectations too low than the Stevos of this world will claim victory when the cost is *only* x, when x is still loads over a long period of time.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Ultimately, with the NI problems and the reduction in trade people will eventually come around to the idea that they're better off being part of the CU and SM.

    I suspect Brexity Tories will do a lot to blame everyone else and not try and find a solution, but that would solve a lot of grief for all concerned.
    _

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