BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

ballysmate said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

As a former remainer, I think having made the incorrect decision that the UK was too weak and pathetic to exert our influence within the EU, this deal is as good as could be. Anything more tied would mean more whining from the brexiters forever, and anything less would mean the conservatives donors could insist on reducing standards.

That's as close to a compliment for Boris as I think we'll ever get on here.

Former remainer?

I think KG actually gets it now. No such thing as a Remainer now, and hasn't been for some time. They are now Rejoiners.

Sounds like a band name.

I think KG is in a minority however.

I don't think we'll rejoin any time soon. Count me out of that band.

Stevo_666

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

As a former remainer, I think having made the incorrect decision that the UK was too weak and pathetic to exert our influence within the EU, this deal is as good as could be. Anything more tied would mean more whining from the brexiters forever, and anything less would mean the conservatives donors could insist on reducing standards.

That's as close to a compliment for Boris as I think we'll ever get on here.

Former remainer?

We left the EU in January.

Not a good decision, as you would agree, but you can't remain in something that you've already left.

Can you try explaining that to a few people on here then?

rjsterry

ballysmate said:

Having skimmed the last few pages I still can't work out what annoys some people on here the most, the prospect of leaving on WTO terms or admitting that Boris has come back with a half decent deal.

That's a low bar for half decent, but agree it was as good as we were going to get given the prioritising of 'sovereignty'. It feels absurd that so much effort was put into something so unambitious and that leaves so many things still to be agreed. Still it's a start and at least something that people can plan around.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

As a former remainer, I think having made the incorrect decision that the UK was too weak and pathetic to exert our influence within the EU, this deal is as good as could be. Anything more tied would mean more whining from the brexiters forever, and anything less would mean the conservatives donors could insist on reducing standards.

That's as close to a compliment for Boris as I think we'll ever get on here.

Former remainer?

We left the EU in January.

Not a good decision, as you would agree, but you can't remain in something that you've already left.

Can you try explaining that to a few people on here then?

I've said it for about the last year, but nobody listens to anyone here.

pinkbikini

jimmyjams said:

david37 said:

oh no the erasmus scheme is going . its being replaced by one that is open to more people and more countries. Erasmus plus.

Open to more people? Although most Erasmus projects and exchanges are in the field of higher education (and so most participants are students), depending on the project/exchange, participants can actually be uni lecturers, apprentices in vocational training, professionals in research, teachers and pupils in primary and secondary schools, non-vocational adult education staff and pupils, youth workers, athletes, coaches and even just volunteer helpers in sport, as well as generally all young people between 13 and 30 (to name just some categories).
It's hard to see how the government's new idea is going to be 'open to more people' than Erasmus now is, especially as the govt have already said their scheme will be for higher and further education students, with no mention of other categories.

More countries? Erasmus isn't just restricted to the EU; there are 33 programme countries in Erasmus, but also about 170 partner countries or dependencies. Erasmus projects mostly take place in programme countries, but partner countries can apply to send participants to them, to organise projects in their own countries (which does happen, with participants from programme countries going there) or to be awarded Erasmus scholarships. Several partner countries make good use of their partnership status. But the UK doesn't even seem to be considering partner status.
So where are the govt's 'more countries' coming from? Well yes, there are about 30 other (small) places in the World which don't participate in Erasmus, mostly dependencies, e.g. Falkland Islands. Big plus!
The possibility of placements/exchanges with the USA has been touted, but already now, under Erasmus, about 3,000 p.a. move in each direction between Europe and the USA, so there is really no need for another (less well-financed) scheme.

It is purely a political isolationist decision to leave Erasmus.

Thank you! You’ve triggered my memory. A few years back my son’s athletics squad had the opportunity to travel to Cuba for a training/cultural exchange/education experience - 10 days, and a few with the Cuban national athletics squad. We never took up the place - the UK junior squad consisted of mainly more talented sprinters, from less affluent backgrounds. We all decided who should have priority to enrich their lives. It was, by all accounts, a really successful trip that really did broaden horizons.

Won’t happen so easily in the future. Not exactly ‘levelling up’. I’ve been focussed on the academic aspects of Erasmus and had completely forgotten the wider ambitions of the program.

surrey_commuter

Dorset_Boy said:

rick_chasey said:

Where’s SC to talk about compound rates

Don't think he's saying 4% pa though, just 4% in total which is obviously massively different.

Yes he is,

He is saying the economy will be 4% smaller in year 15, so will have been 3.75% smaller in year 14.

We are already 2.5% smaller so the compounded loss would far surpass the Covid losses.

Let’s assume 0.5% of UK economy is £ the cumulative loss is;
Year 1 = £10bn
Year 2 = £20bn
Year 3 = £40bn
Year 4 = £80bn
Year 5 = £160bn
Year 6 =

That is so horrific I am doubting my maths.

rick_chasey

Yeah 4% of what the economy is 15 years later, should be a lot lot more then 4% of the economy today.

Say you’re at £100.

At 1.5% growth PA by year 15 your £100 is now roughly 125.

So your 4% is actually 5% in today’s numbers.

If the forecast is for 2.5% growth you’re at roughly 145 by year 15 and the 4% is 5.8% in today’s numbers.

rick_chasey

ballysmate said:

Having skimmed the last few pages I still can't work out what annoys some people on here the most, the prospect of leaving on WTO terms or admitting that Boris has come back with a half decent deal.

Lol you’ve been had if you think it’s half decent.

Stevo_666

surrey_commuter said:

Dorset_Boy said:

rick_chasey said:

Where’s SC to talk about compound rates

Don't think he's saying 4% pa though, just 4% in total which is obviously massively different.

Yes he is,

He is saying the economy will be 4% smaller in year 15, so will have been 3.75% smaller in year 14.

We are already 2.5% smaller so the compounded loss would far surpass the Covid losses.

Let’s assume 0.5% of UK economy is £ the cumulative loss is;
Year 1 = £10bn
Year 2 = £20bn
Year 3 = £40bn
Year 4 = £80bn
Year 5 = £160bn
Year 6 =

That is so horrific I am doubting my maths.

So am I. Don't recall seeing any forecasts like that.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Yeah 4% of what the economy is 15 years later, should be a lot lot more then 4% of the economy today.

Say you’re at £100.

At 1.5% growth PA by year 15 your £100 is now roughly 125.

So your 4% is actually 5% in today’s numbers.

If the forecast is for 2.5% growth you’re at roughly 145 by year 15 and the 4% is 5.8% in today’s numbers.

Nice piece of theory. Not that it'll change anybody minds in the next 72 hours.

I am still very sceptical that this will reduce UK growth by 4% pa every year.

rick_chasey

I’m not saying 4% pa...

coopster_the_1st

First.Aspect said:

The latest forecasts are that the economy will be 4% smaller than it would have been... After 15 years.

I am a remainer. But is it just me or is that really not very much?

That's a 0.26% change in GDP in year 1 only to achieve that figure.

As the forecast is likely to be based on changes over multiple years I'll stick with my view that rounding errors will make a bigger difference to GDP in 15 years time.

ballysmate

rick_chasey said:

ballysmate said:

Having skimmed the last few pages I still can't work out what annoys some people on here the most, the prospect of leaving on WTO terms or admitting that Boris has come back with a half decent deal.

Lol you’ve been had if you think it’s half decent.

You are Nicola Sturgeon and I claim my 5 pounds.

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Dorset_Boy said:

rick_chasey said:

Where’s SC to talk about compound rates

Don't think he's saying 4% pa though, just 4% in total which is obviously massively different.

Yes he is,

He is saying the economy will be 4% smaller in year 15, so will have been 3.75% smaller in year 14.

We are already 2.5% smaller so the compounded loss would far surpass the Covid losses.

Let’s assume 0.5% of UK economy is £ the cumulative loss is;
Year 1 = £10bn
Year 2 = £20bn
Year 3 = £40bn
Year 4 = £80bn
Year 5 = £160bn
Year 6 =

That is so horrific I am doubting my maths.

So am I. Don't recall seeing any forecasts like that.

OBR and Andrew Bailey

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

I’m not saying 4% pa...

Just as well because you'd be talking bollox otherwise.

Stevo_666

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Dorset_Boy said:

rick_chasey said:

Where’s SC to talk about compound rates

Don't think he's saying 4% pa though, just 4% in total which is obviously massively different.

Yes he is,

He is saying the economy will be 4% smaller in year 15, so will have been 3.75% smaller in year 14.

We are already 2.5% smaller so the compounded loss would far surpass the Covid losses.

Let’s assume 0.5% of UK economy is £ the cumulative loss is;
Year 1 = £10bn
Year 2 = £20bn
Year 3 = £40bn
Year 4 = £80bn
Year 5 = £160bn
Year 6 =

That is so horrific I am doubting my maths.

So am I. Don't recall seeing any forecasts like that.

OBR and Andrew Bailey

Still haven't seen them. Link to your source please.

If this involves extrapolation of forecasts over a period beyond which forecasting is khown to be vaguely accurate then I'm sure you know my views on that already.

Stevo_666

ballysmate said:

rick_chasey said:

ballysmate said:

Having skimmed the last few pages I still can't work out what annoys some people on here the most, the prospect of leaving on WTO terms or admitting that Boris has come back with a half decent deal.

Lol you’ve been had if you think it’s half decent.

You are Nicola Sturgeon and I claim my 5 pounds.

He could be a woman as he's impossible to please

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Dorset_Boy said:

rick_chasey said:

Where’s SC to talk about compound rates

Don't think he's saying 4% pa though, just 4% in total which is obviously massively different.

Yes he is,

He is saying the economy will be 4% smaller in year 15, so will have been 3.75% smaller in year 14.

We are already 2.5% smaller so the compounded loss would far surpass the Covid losses.

Let’s assume 0.5% of UK economy is £ the cumulative loss is;
Year 1 = £10bn
Year 2 = £20bn
Year 3 = £40bn
Year 4 = £80bn
Year 5 = £160bn
Year 6 =

That is so horrific I am doubting my maths.

So am I. Don't recall seeing any forecasts like that.

OBR and Andrew Bailey

Still haven't seen them. Link to your source please.

If this involves extrapolation of forecasts over a period beyond which forecasting is khown to be vaguely accurate then I'm sure you know my views on that already.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gdp/failure-to-get-brexit-trade-deal-would-wipe-extra-2-off-uk-output-obr-idUSKBN285209

This is publicly available information and really would have been quicker for you to Google than write that sentence.

rick_chasey

Why people want this I will never understand

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1343833110442635267?s=21

pblakeney

Nowt wrong with Cheddar or Wensleydale, innit.

rick_chasey

https://twitter.com/m_paulmcnamara/status/1343837424439459842?s=21

https://twitter.com/m_paulmcnamara/status/1343837666731843585?s=21

Hahaha

TheBigBean

Some news today:
- China holds its vaccine back to pressure Turkey to sign an extradition agreement which will affect Uyghurs
- EU agrees investment deal with China
- China is disgruntled about the uptake in BNO passports and possible mass exodus from Hong Kong
- UK attacts record venture capital investment in tech firms in 2020. More than the rest of Europe combined

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

Why people want this I will never understand

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1343833110442635267?s=21

How do all the non-EU countries survive? There are plenty of Korean, Japanese etc. supermarkets.

darkhairedlord

rick_chasey said:

Why people want this I will never understand

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1343833110442635267?s=21

They can open a fish and chip shop.

rick_chasey

Did you read it?

darkhairedlord

rick_chasey said:

Did you read it?

What?

rick_chasey

darkhairedlord said:

rick_chasey said:

Did you read it?

What?

The bberg article.

elbowloh

Too bloody right. We should be eating proper English food like tikka masala.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

Did you read it?

The problem with mixed consignments seems to be a recurring theme.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Did you read it?

The problem with mixed consignments seems to be a recurring theme.

Except for the rest of the world which seems to cope.