BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Stevo_666

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Yep, agree, FTA's are bespoke things.

I've argued that the economic potential of FTA's with rest of the world is material given the size of the ROW outside of the EU. I've also argued that the economic impact of Brexit is probably not as apocalyptic as some on here try to make out. Quite a few times in both cases. But I don't recall getting defensive. If it's not those you'd have to link back to the specific part of the thread so I can comment.

rick_chasey

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

rjsterry

The WAB has been passed, but not ratified by either party. As has been said countless times already that is or was supposed to be the easy bit. The negotiation of our new relationship with the EU is very much still to come and not theoretical, and we are apparently again needlessly restricting ourselves with an arbitrary deadline. Regardless of minor shifts in proportions, it is still a major trade partner and the claimed aims of divergence work against getting the proposed zero tariff zero quota deal both sides claim to want. All of which points to yet another drag on our already stagnant productivity growth in 2021.

Not that we shouldn't be looking elsewhere as well, but why all the fuss about a US deal which would make a tiny fraction of a difference given it's already a very open economy; but nothing about India or China which are far bigger markets, with far more scope to expand?

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Yeah arrange an FTA with Europe which as closely as possible mirrors EU membership.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Yeah arrange an FTA with Europe which as closely as possible mirrors EU membership.

It's the usual debate then. Although the EU seem to want closer alignment whereas we are still weighing up the pros and cons it would seem.

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Yeah arrange an FTA with Europe which as closely as possible mirrors EU membership.

It's the usual debate then. Although the EU seem to want closer alignment whereas we are still weighing up the pros and cons it would seem.

No the Tories still operate as if British exceptionalism is the truth.

They will soon realise the folly of their ways. We ought to hope it is before a deal is concluded rather than after.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Of course the question is what happens next... but clutching at ill-defined straws as offered by the less-than-reliable Liz Truss, without any analysis of how those percentages break down, seems as futile as crying over spilt milk. They certainly don't give me any great cause for optimism, as the future seems only slightly less poorly defined than it was before the election.

rjsterry

Liz. Lynne wrote the book about grammar and punctuation.

briantrumpet

rjsterry said:

Liz. Lynne wrote the book about grammar and punctuation.

Haha, thanks! I'll edit... I find words and langauge more reliable than politicians...

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Yep, agree, FTA's are bespoke things.

I've argued that the economic potential of FTA's with rest of the world is material given the size of the ROW outside of the EU. I've also argued that the economic impact of Brexit is probably not as apocalyptic as some on here try to make out. Quite a few times in both cases. But I don't recall getting defensive. If it's not those you'd have to link back to the specific part of the thread so I can comment.

Getting defensive is saying “we are leaving get over it”

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Now this is very defensive. Rick is questioning whether the UK can improve on the trade deals that it already has through E.U. membership.
Rather than arguing that yes it is possible because we won’t have to allow for the interests of 27 other countries.
You just invite him to embrace reality.

Stevo_666

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Yep, agree, FTA's are bespoke things.

I've argued that the economic potential of FTA's with rest of the world is material given the size of the ROW outside of the EU. I've also argued that the economic impact of Brexit is probably not as apocalyptic as some on here try to make out. Quite a few times in both cases. But I don't recall getting defensive. If it's not those you'd have to link back to the specific part of the thread so I can comment.

Getting defensive is saying “we are leaving get over it”

Pointing out the irrelevance of somebody's argument to the real world is simply telling it as it is. As you are supporting his point, your argument is also irrelevant. I would say that's more offensive than defensive, don't you think?

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Of course the question is what happens next... but clutching at ill-defined straws as offered by the less-than-reliable Liz Truss, without any analysis of how those percentages break down, seems as futile as crying over spilt milk. They certainly don't give me any great cause for optimism, as the future seems only slightly less poorly defined than it was before the election.

And the man in denial about Brexit isn't clutching at straws?

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Of course the question is what happens next... but clutching at ill-defined straws as offered by the less-than-reliable Liz Truss, without any analysis of how those percentages break down, seems as futile as crying over spilt milk. They certainly don't give me any great cause for optimism, as the future seems only slightly less poorly defined than it was before the election.

And the man in denial about Brexit isn't clutching at straws?

Show me where I'm clutching at straws or where I'm in denial about Brexit since the election. I'll be the first to admit (it'll come as no surprise to you) that I still think Brexit is not going to go well, but I'm not going to quote PR puff from Liz Truss in the guise of meaningless percentages to bolster my case.

I see no reason to be cheerful about the situation we're in, but that's not clutching at straws. That's just me being miserable. I'm glad Liz Truss makes you happy.

rjsterry

It would be really helpful of someone - bit of a project for us amateurs I admit, but you'd think the DfT would be on this - to draw up a big table of all the trade deals we currently have as an EU member; the pros and cons of each; where it sits in terms of proportion of our existing trade; scope for improvement on the existing deal both in terms of quality (ease of trade) and quantity (potential additional trade). Then we could have an informed discussion about the benefits and losses instead of meaningless phrases like "global Britain" and quoting isolated figures.

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Yep, agree, FTA's are bespoke things.

I've argued that the economic potential of FTA's with rest of the world is material given the size of the ROW outside of the EU. I've also argued that the economic impact of Brexit is probably not as apocalyptic as some on here try to make out. Quite a few times in both cases. But I don't recall getting defensive. If it's not those you'd have to link back to the specific part of the thread so I can comment.

Getting defensive is saying “we are leaving get over it”

Pointing out the irrelevance of somebody's argument to the real world is simply telling it as it is. As you are supporting his point, your argument is also irrelevant. I would say that's more offensive than defensive, don't you think?

Just under half of all UK trade is with the EU, so that trade agreement is more important than any other.

If the U.K. can’t get an advantageous deal with the EU, I don’t hold much hope for other big markets.

No one can answer how they expect the U.K. not to get outmuscled by economies 4x or more bigger in a way the EU, as the biggest single market in the world, doesn’t.

pblakeney

We are Great Britain, we have an empire upon which the sun never sets. They will simply do as we wish. Innit. 🤔

morstar

To take a positive view. It is not all about size, specialism is also critical. i.e. if we provide unique or desirable products and services that are in demand, these provide leverage in trade deals that extends beyond mere market size.
Taking a negative view, outside of FS, Arms, Whisky, Salmon and History, we're simply not as exceptional as the Empire believers think and therefore it comes back to size.

Caveats, Londons strength in FS is far from guaranteed long term. Whisky and Salmon are inherently Scottish which is a whole other topic.

The opportunity for us as a small nation is in specialising, just as on the high street. A small trader has to offer something unique to leverage their position. I personally agree FS are hugely important but cannot be the only string to our bow if we are to propser, especially while limping along with a self inflicted bullet hole in our foot.

kingstongraham

The positive view is to look at the UK as small shops on the high street?

rick_chasey

morstar said:

To take a positive view. It is not all about size, specialism is also critical. i.e. if we provide unique or desirable products and services that are in demand, these provide leverage in trade deals that extends beyond mere market size.
Taking a negative view, outside of FS, Arms, Whisky, Salmon and History, we're simply not as exceptional as the Empire believers think and therefore it comes back to size.

Caveats, Londons strength in FS is far from guaranteed long term. Whisky and Salmon are inherently Scottish which is a whole other topic.

The opportunity for us as a small nation is in specialising, just as on the high street. A small trader has to offer something unique to leverage their position. I personally agree FS are hugely important but cannot be the only string to our bow if we are to propser, especially while limping along with a self inflicted bullet hole in our foot.

It is all about size.

Nations without it hang ups about its position on the international scene like Netherlands or Belgium understand this dynamic and understand the advantages of collective bargaining.

Britain is under the delusion that in the 21st century it can go it alone when everything points to a new three-way superpower system between the US, China and EU stuck in the middle.

British exceptionalism has a lot to answer for.

briantrumpet

kingstongraham said:

The positive view is to look at the UK as small shops on the high street?

Well, the two high streets I know best are both dying on their feet... more charity shops and boarded-up shops with 'To let' than anything else.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Yep, agree, FTA's are bespoke things.

I've argued that the economic potential of FTA's with rest of the world is material given the size of the ROW outside of the EU. I've also argued that the economic impact of Brexit is probably not as apocalyptic as some on here try to make out. Quite a few times in both cases. But I don't recall getting defensive. If it's not those you'd have to link back to the specific part of the thread so I can comment.

Getting defensive is saying “we are leaving get over it”

Pointing out the irrelevance of somebody's argument to the real world is simply telling it as it is. As you are supporting his point, your argument is also irrelevant. I would say that's more offensive than defensive, don't you think?

Just under half of all UK trade is with the EU, so that trade agreement is more important than any other.

If the U.K. can’t get an advantageous deal with the EU, I don’t hold much hope for other big markets.

No one can answer how they expect the U.K. not to get outmuscled by economies 4x or more bigger in a way the EU, as the biggest single market in the world, doesn’t.

Missing the point yet again. Just to be clear; the decision has been taken, we are leaving so all these debates about whether it's better to stay from a trade, economic or other point of view are pointless. Hence the irrelevance of what you were saying above.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What makes you think Stevo that the U.K. can arrange more competitive FTAs than the EU?

Because I think the relative size of the economic areas negotiating has the biggest impact on who gains most in trade agreements.

So I would like to know what the U.K. would be able to do that more than compensates for this?

I didnt say that.

My point to Brian is exactly my point to you. That these are theoretical arguments because the decision has been made. Embrace reality and the question is what happens next, not what might have been if things had turned out differently.

Of course the question is what happens next... but clutching at ill-defined straws as offered by the less-than-reliable Liz Truss, without any analysis of how those percentages break down, seems as futile as crying over spilt milk. They certainly don't give me any great cause for optimism, as the future seems only slightly less poorly defined than it was before the election.

And the man in denial about Brexit isn't clutching at straws?

Show me where I'm clutching at straws or where I'm in denial about Brexit since the election. I'll be the first to admit (it'll come as no surprise to you) that I still think Brexit is not going to go well, but I'm not going to quote PR puff from Liz Truss in the guise of meaningless percentages to bolster my case.

I see no reason to be cheerful about the situation we're in, but that's not clutching at straws. That's just me being miserable. I'm glad Liz Truss makes you happy.

Just a page or so back you were still trying to argue that we would be better off staying in the EU. How likely do you think that is?

Stevo_666

pblakeney said:

We are Great Britain, we have an empire upon which the sun never sets. They will simply do as we wish. Innit. 🤔

Good to see Christmas cheer in Cake Stop for a change.

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Yep, agree, FTA's are bespoke things.

I've argued that the economic potential of FTA's with rest of the world is material given the size of the ROW outside of the EU. I've also argued that the economic impact of Brexit is probably not as apocalyptic as some on here try to make out. Quite a few times in both cases. But I don't recall getting defensive. If it's not those you'd have to link back to the specific part of the thread so I can comment.

Getting defensive is saying “we are leaving get over it”

Pointing out the irrelevance of somebody's argument to the real world is simply telling it as it is. As you are supporting his point, your argument is also irrelevant. I would say that's more offensive than defensive, don't you think?

Just under half of all UK trade is with the EU, so that trade agreement is more important than any other.

If the U.K. can’t get an advantageous deal with the EU, I don’t hold much hope for other big markets.

No one can answer how they expect the U.K. not to get outmuscled by economies 4x or more bigger in a way the EU, as the biggest single market in the world, doesn’t.

Missing the point yet again. Just to be clear; the decision has been taken, we are leaving so all these debates about whether it's better to stay from a trade, economic or other point of view are pointless. Hence the irrelevance of what you were saying above.

The decision to leave the single market had not been taken (yet) duuuuuuuuuuuh.

In case it hasn’t been obvious for the past 3 years leaving the EU doesn’t necessarily mean leaving the single market, as per the actual referendum debate.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Stevo_666 said:

And hefe's a spot of Christmas cheer: British exports to the rest of the world outside the EU were up by 6.3% in the 12 months to September 2019:
https://gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu
Even exports to the EU were up by 1.3% in the same period.

How strange - my ill informed perception was that despite the slump in Sterling the balance of payments deficit was ballooning.

I only skim read the link but found it strange that they did not mention our new FTA with Japan courtesy of the E.U.

So not good news for you then?

Interesting that we are growing our exports to ROW nearly 5× faster than with the rest of the EU. Clearly there are factors other than the existence of FTAs.

Is there a breakdown of what percentage of that trade with ROW is through EU-negotiated trade agreements?... obviously not that I'd accuse Liz Truss of putting Brexit-ready spin on the figures, obvs.

You mean that the sort of Free Trade Agreement that we might conclude with the EU is driving much larger export growth than current UK arrangement with the EU? If so, that bodes well for the future

Er, are we still in the EU, and still trading with the ROW under the terms negotiated by the EU? Isn't that an 'is' and not a 'might'? (or 'might not be')?

How many of those individual FTAs with the ROW will have to be renegotiated? Easiest process in history?

My point is fhat your statement implies FTAs create a lot of growth. It's pretty likely we will get a FTA with the EU, but regardless of that you really need to move on from 'crying over spilt milk' as Brexit is happening - so the focus need to be on the future deals with both the EU and other major trade partners.

Whether these future arrangements will be better or worse than what we have currently is now pretty irrelevant.

Not directed specifically at you but how long before people realise that getting an FTA is not binary, they come in many shapes and forms.

Aimed specifically at you - you put up some spurious statistics to prove Brexit is great, when it was pointed out they spurious stats you got all defensive.

Do you not think it would be helpful to break the stats into trade with E.U., EU FTAs and ROW. That way we could see the uplift from negotiating better (UK specific) deals with each part. For those that care they could also see if deficits were widening or narrowing.

Yep, agree, FTA's are bespoke things.

I've argued that the economic potential of FTA's with rest of the world is material given the size of the ROW outside of the EU. I've also argued that the economic impact of Brexit is probably not as apocalyptic as some on here try to make out. Quite a few times in both cases. But I don't recall getting defensive. If it's not those you'd have to link back to the specific part of the thread so I can comment.

Getting defensive is saying “we are leaving get over it”

Pointing out the irrelevance of somebody's argument to the real world is simply telling it as it is. As you are supporting his point, your argument is also irrelevant. I would say that's more offensive than defensive, don't you think?

Just under half of all UK trade is with the EU, so that trade agreement is more important than any other.

If the U.K. can’t get an advantageous deal with the EU, I don’t hold much hope for other big markets.

No one can answer how they expect the U.K. not to get outmuscled by economies 4x or more bigger in a way the EU, as the biggest single market in the world, doesn’t.

Missing the point yet again. Just to be clear; the decision has been taken, we are leaving so all these debates about whether it's better to stay from a trade, economic or other point of view are pointless. Hence the irrelevance of what you were saying above.

The decision to leave the single market had not been taken (yet) duuuuuuuuuuuh.

In case it hasn’t been obvious for the past 3 years leaving the EU doesn’t necessarily mean leaving the single market, as per the actual referendum debate.

And how likely do you think that is?

Brian might be able to lend you a few straws

kingstongraham

I think we all accept it's happening, now the hope is that it can be just pointless rather than ridiculous.

Stevo_666

kingstongraham said:

I think we all accept it's happening, now the hope is that it can be just pointless rather than ridiculous.

Based on the above, clearly some people don't. The WA being passed is not 100% mathematically certain but I'd love to see the bookies' odds against that.

The idea that Boris will somehow keep us in the single market is also not 100% mathematically certain but let's be honest, Rick is verging on the delusional if he really thinks that will happen.