BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Some interesting amendment getting cross party backing from the NI MPs
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
😊 Nurn Ironed politicos had their spell in the magic money tree but cut off the branch they were sitting on by screwing over the Maybot. So now who cares? Maybe they should be focussed on getting the ear of (S)Cummings?0
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Have to laugh that they have a pre-requisite approval of the paralysed NI assembly in the proposed legislation.tailwindhome said:Some interesting amendment getting cross party backing from the NI MPs
Arguably a conflict of interests if by not sitting in the NI assembly they could block legislation they don’t like.
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The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public.
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Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Is that directed at me or yourself?Stevo_666 said:
Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public.
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Are plenty of educated people who are very good at working this out and their results have been posted here *so many times*.Stevo_666 said:
Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public.
It's quite clear that it's knocked off what the predictions in the referendum knocked off.
3 days before the ref, this was also very accurate.
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At you. Not sure why you needed to ask as I quoted your post?surrey_commuter said:
Is that directed at me or yourself?Stevo_666 said:
Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
rick_chasey said:
Are plenty of educated people who are very good at working this out and their results have been posted here *so many times*.Stevo_666 said:
Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public.
It's quite clear that it's knocked off what the predictions in the referendum knocked off.
3 days before the ref, this was also very accurate.
Missing the point. Clearly alternative timelines aren't visible. And do you really think that in 5 or 10 years time anyone will be able to say with any authority what might have happened if we hadn't left?rick_chasey said:
Are plenty of educated people who are very good at working this out and their results have been posted here *so many times*.Stevo_666 said:
Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public.
It's quite clear that it's knocked off what the predictions in the referendum knocked off.
3 days before the ref, this was also very accurate."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
You're arguing because something didn't happen it's impossible to model, and I'm saying not only is that not true, but those models have shown to forecast the impact quite accurately.
How is that not the point?
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Aside from the point that you are quoting figures related to periods before we have even left, it's a simple case of how will we know that far out what might have been. just because someone can get a couple years worth of data and extrapolate does not make it reliable for forecasting the medium to longer term future.
As I said above, we simply won't know what would have happened economically if we had stayed. Hence my statement re: the lack of reference point."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I would suggest something more basic: if in 5 years time real terms median incomes haven't improved significantly, people will notice. At that point, whether it is due to Brexit or something else will be rather beside the point.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.0
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I'm just glad that my expensive asteroid forcefield appears to be working.
No hits yet. Touch wood.
Yes, I am being ridiculous to make a point.
Point being that if something doesn't happen then it is impossible to pinpoint the cause. Once something happens is the time to realise the fault.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Which is not to say that we should not be aware of confirmation bias or any of the other tricks the brain plays on us.
I just read this in the Kahneman book "Once you adopt a new view of the world, you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed."
Think this describes both sides on most debates, definitely this one. Even as people become less moderate, they entirely forget how they used to be. Try telling people on either side that they would have accepted the single market as a reasonable compromise 3 years ago.0 -
You could demonstrate a causal link by identifying and isolating all the other possible contributing factors. To do this you would need a representative group of willing volunteers to follow the same lifestyle changes plus a control group.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
If we split the country with one half leaving and the other remaining, we could answer the question fairly conclusively.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
but I was replying to your post... your second post was knocking the logic of your first postStevo_666 said:
At you. Not sure why you needed to ask as I quoted your post?surrey_commuter said:
Is that directed at me or yourself?Stevo_666 said:
Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public.0 -
We'd need one country of the UK's size to leave and other countries of a similar size to remain for it to be reliable.rjsterry said:
You could demonstrate a causal link by identifying and isolating all the other possible contributing factors. To do this you would need a representative group of willing volunteers to follow the same lifestyle changes plus a control group.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
If we split the country with one half leaving and the other remaining, we could answer the question fairly conclusively.0 -
An even better example would be if Froome declined to ride in the peloton at next year's TdF. Most people would forecast that his results will be negatively impacted, if it turned out that his results were negatively impacted then the odd diehard would still argue that it was not due to riding solo and that it can not be proved.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
In economic terms it really is that obvious. It is so obvious that no member of the Leave leadership is arguing otherwise.0 -
What if after several months of heavy drinking with no exercise you find god/whatever and become far healthier than you are now?kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
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What information should the trade negotiators be using to negotiate the trade deal?“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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I guess we'll never really know if the country was better off with Mr Johnson or Mr Corbyn.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
If we are talking GDP then France is close enough to use as a comparison.kingstongraham said:
We'd need one country of the UK's size to leave and other countries of a similar size to remain for it to be reliable.rjsterry said:
You could demonstrate a causal link by identifying and isolating all the other possible contributing factors. To do this you would need a representative group of willing volunteers to follow the same lifestyle changes plus a control group.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
If we split the country with one half leaving and the other remaining, we could answer the question fairly conclusively.
I'm too lazy to do the comparison though.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
How much did France undershoot in 2019 the forecast that was made in 2016?pblakeney said:
If we are talking GDP then France is close enough to use as a comparison.kingstongraham said:
We'd need one country of the UK's size to leave and other countries of a similar size to remain for it to be reliable.rjsterry said:
You could demonstrate a causal link by identifying and isolating all the other possible contributing factors. To do this you would need a representative group of willing volunteers to follow the same lifestyle changes plus a control group.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
If we split the country with one half leaving and the other remaining, we could answer the question fairly conclusively.
I'm too lazy to do the comparison though.
You are intentionally trying to mislead if you take the UK forecasts if we had remained as gospel. None of the forecasts predicted the global slowdown that affected advanced economies in 2018/190 -
Agree, there are simply too many variables to know what is impacting the real world result. However several people don't seem to understand that its a bit tricky to compare this to a non-existent timeline (i.e. the scenario where we stay). As above, lots of variables and none of them measurable after we leave. Who knows what might happen over several years?rjsterry said:I would suggest something more basic: if in 5 years time real terms median incomes haven't improved significantly, people will notice. At that point, whether it is due to Brexit or something else will be rather beside the point.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
See, you made me look. Now look at the actual figures, not forecasts.coopster_the_1st said:
How much did France undershoot in 2019 the forecast that was made in 2016?pblakeney said:
If we are talking GDP then France is close enough to use as a comparison.kingstongraham said:
We'd need one country of the UK's size to leave and other countries of a similar size to remain for it to be reliable.rjsterry said:
You could demonstrate a causal link by identifying and isolating all the other possible contributing factors. To do this you would need a representative group of willing volunteers to follow the same lifestyle changes plus a control group.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
If we split the country with one half leaving and the other remaining, we could answer the question fairly conclusively.
I'm too lazy to do the comparison though.
You are intentionally trying to mislead if you take the UK forecasts if we had remained as gospel. None of the forecasts predicted the global slowdown that affected advanced economies in 2018/19
France GDP 2016 2.465t USD, 2018 2.780t USD.
UK GDP 2016 2.651t USD, 2018 2.110t USD.
Figures for 2019 are not available yet.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
If it was me I would list all industries by size (cash and jobs) and then calculate how important access to the SM is to each. Then I would do the same for the E.U. and access to the UK. I would also work out the small E.U. industries with the biggest clout.tailwindhome said:What information should the trade negotiators be using to negotiate the trade deal?
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I'm sure you realise that GDP stated in a foreign currency will contain foreign exchange fluctuations.pblakeney said:
See, you made me look. Now look at the actual figures, not forecasts.coopster_the_1st said:
How much did France undershoot in 2019 the forecast that was made in 2016?pblakeney said:
If we are talking GDP then France is close enough to use as a comparison.kingstongraham said:
We'd need one country of the UK's size to leave and other countries of a similar size to remain for it to be reliable.rjsterry said:
You could demonstrate a causal link by identifying and isolating all the other possible contributing factors. To do this you would need a representative group of willing volunteers to follow the same lifestyle changes plus a control group.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
If we split the country with one half leaving and the other remaining, we could answer the question fairly conclusively.
I'm too lazy to do the comparison though.
You are intentionally trying to mislead if you take the UK forecasts if we had remained as gospel. None of the forecasts predicted the global slowdown that affected advanced economies in 2018/19
France GDP 2016 2.465t USD, 2018 2.780t USD.
UK GDP 2016 2.651t USD, 2018 2.110t USD.
Figures for 2019 are not available yet.
Let's use domestic currency for each country and you will see it paints a rather different picture:
UK
https://statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom-uk-since-2000/
France
https://statista.com/statistics/469624/france-gdp/
Based on this, the UK has grown its faster than France over the 2016-2018 period and has a larger GDP based on current exchange rates.
C'est la vie, as we say in England."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Which is why I used a common neutral currency to smooth out currency fluctuations.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics, eh?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0
