BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

Robert88 wrote:

verylonglegs wrote:

I'm also baffled why the Conservatives have so much faith in Johnson. The lifelong Tory voters in my social circle are horrified by him and want shot of him as soon as possible and I know a few non-Tory leave voters who are completely aghast at him coming to power. They want out but still acknowledge you have to deal with the EU on the best possible terms and consider Johnson a total bellend.

No live people with whom I have discussed Bojo say otherwise. I don't ask how they vote altho' most are anti-brexit in varying degrees.

Those seances, mind... The things some of those departed spirits come out with would turn your hair white.

rick_chasey

They like BoJo becauze they think he beats Corbyn in an election.

That is it.

It’s about his electability not his governance.

rick_chasey

Anyone watch the “middle classes ruined Britain” prog on BBC 2?

Not to do with Brexit but didn’t want to start a new thread.

Stevo_666

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

I was reading that a lot of senior Tories are preparing for a snap election, and a few of Boris' incoming team are supposed to have a lot of experience with difficult elections.

The basis being Boris will be confronted with complete parliamentary stalemate and will have no choice. They're about to lose Brecon and Radnorshire, plus the Tory MPs who are against no deal already - he is going to have no majority to do anything, especially not to push through a no deal exit.

I think this might be a reasonable assessment, because getting a 2nd ref through parliament would also be difficult and would hamper the Tories at the next GE.

I'm not sure if an NI-only backstop deal would go through so I probably think another extension would be needed to hold the GE.

I really don't see how a GE changes anything. Fewer Labour and Conservative seats; a few more LibDem, ScotsNats, Green and TBP seats. That doesn't get us any closer to a resolution.

Plenty of Tories believe Johnson is electoral catnip.

All the polling says otherwise.

Not sure the polling suggests that Corbyn or Jo "Who the **** is she?" Swinson have catnippy qualities either.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

You (and May) believed it would go through last year.

I'm not sure May did

tailwindhome

When the cabinet is finalised there will be more who voted for May's deal than didn't.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

I was reading that a lot of senior Tories are preparing for a snap election, and a few of Boris' incoming team are supposed to have a lot of experience with difficult elections.

The basis being Boris will be confronted with complete parliamentary stalemate and will have no choice. They're about to lose Brecon and Radnorshire, plus the Tory MPs who are against no deal already - he is going to have no majority to do anything, especially not to push through a no deal exit.

I think this might be a reasonable assessment, because getting a 2nd ref through parliament would also be difficult and would hamper the Tories at the next GE.

I'm not sure if an NI-only backstop deal would go through so I probably think another extension would be needed to hold the GE.

I really don't see how a GE changes anything. Fewer Labour and Conservative seats; a few more LibDem, ScotsNats, Green and TBP seats. That doesn't get us any closer to a resolution.

Plenty of Tories believe Johnson is electoral catnip.

All the polling says otherwise.

Not sure the polling suggests that Corbyn or Jo "Who the **** is she?" Swinson have catnippy qualities either.

We'll need an election to know for sure but on the basis of Ashcroft's polling Swinson's net popularity with Labour and Tory voters is currently much the same as Johnson. Perhaps while they might not know much about Swinson, they know too much about Johnson.



https://mobile.twitter.com/cased/status ... 6175143937

cycleclinic

The best thing is 3years on we are still on the same place. Better still minsters are now claiming everything is different now no deal is seriously on the table.

Nice to know we have the comfort blanket of incompetence and delusion to wrap ourselves in once more.

kingstongraham

When do they knock off for the summer recess? They've earned a break.

robert88

rjsterry wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

verylonglegs wrote:

I'm also baffled why the Conservatives have so much faith in Johnson. The lifelong Tory voters in my social circle are horrified by him and want shot of him as soon as possible and I know a few non-Tory leave voters who are completely aghast at him coming to power. They want out but still acknowledge you have to deal with the EU on the best possible terms and consider Johnson a total bellend.

No live people with whom I have discussed Bojo say otherwise. I don't ask how they vote altho' most are anti-brexit in varying degrees.

Those seances, mind... The things some of those departed spirits come out with would turn your hair white.

You may be an invention of the Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti for all I know. I've yet to be convinced Steve0666 is a person and not a department at CCHQ.

briantrumpet

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

You (and May) believed it would go through last year.

I'm not sure May did

I'm still none the wiser as to what May believes.... if anything. Can machines have beliefs?

kingstongraham

briantrumpet wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

You (and May) believed it would go through last year.

I'm not sure May did

I'm still none the wiser as to what May believes.... if anything. Can machines have beliefs?

That there's too much immigration. Think that's about it, and all the red lines stem from that.

slowbike

verylonglegs wrote:

I'm also baffled why the Conservatives have so much faith in Johnson. The lifelong Tory voters in my social circle are horrified by him and want shot of him as soon as possible and I know a few non-Tory leave voters who are completely aghast at him coming to power. They want out but still acknowledge you have to deal with the EU on the best possible terms and consider Johnson a total bellend.

Perhaps they're playing the "help him fail to get rid of him" game ... knowing that his plans won't work, he'll end up with no choice but to call a second ref or ge - at which point, assuming he looses there may be a chance to get rid of him. Or perhaps not ...

darkhairedlord

Slowbike wrote:

verylonglegs wrote:

I'm also baffled why the Conservatives have so much faith in Johnson. The lifelong Tory voters in my social circle are horrified by him and want shot of him as soon as possible and I know a few non-Tory leave voters who are completely aghast at him coming to power. They want out but still acknowledge you have to deal with the EU on the best possible terms and consider Johnson a total bellend.

Perhaps they're playing the "help him fail to get rid of him" game ... knowing that his plans won't work, he'll end up with no choice but to call a second ref or ge - at which point, assuming he looses there may be a chance to get rid of him. Or perhaps not ...

The like him because he is loud and jovial. He will negotiate with Johnny foreigner by talking slowly and loudly.

pblakeney

Slowbike wrote:

verylonglegs wrote:

I'm also baffled why the Conservatives have so much faith in Johnson. The lifelong Tory voters in my social circle are horrified by him and want shot of him as soon as possible and I know a few non-Tory leave voters who are completely aghast at him coming to power. They want out but still acknowledge you have to deal with the EU on the best possible terms and consider Johnson a total bellend.

Perhaps they're playing the "help him fail to get rid of him" game ... knowing that his plans won't work, he'll end up with no choice but to call a second ref or ge - at which point, assuming he looses there may be a chance to get rid of him. Or perhaps not ...

Too much logical strategy.
It is more likely to be a case of “He says what I want to hear. I want that one.”.

bobmcstuff

KingstonGraham wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

You (and May) believed it would go through last year.

I'm not sure May did

I'm still none the wiser as to what May believes.... if anything. Can machines have beliefs?

That there's too much immigration. Think that's about it, and all the red lines stem from that.

I'm not exactly sure she believes that or whether she just decided that was what Conservative voters wanted

bobmcstuff

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

robert88

bobmcstuff wrote:

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

How does that pan out with FPTP? In the absence of any other information the Tories would win every seat in parliament.

kingstongraham

bobmcstuff wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

You (and May) believed it would go through last year.

I'm not sure May did

I'm still none the wiser as to what May believes.... if anything. Can machines have beliefs?

That there's too much immigration. Think that's about it, and all the red lines stem from that.

I'm not exactly sure she believes that or whether she just decided that was what Conservative voters wanted

All she's ever done in the Home Office and as PM has had that underpinning it, so I think it's a genuinely held belief. Or at least it's become a genuinely held belief.

tailwindhome

TailWindHome wrote:

When the cabinet is finalised there will be more who voted for May's deal than didn't.

I havent checked every name. But off the top of my head only Villiers and Patel didn't vote for May's deal.

Stevo_666

bobmcstuff wrote:

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

I love it when a plan comes together
https://forum.bikeradar.com/viewtopic.php?t=13030866

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

I love it when a plan comes together
https://forum.bikeradar.com/viewtopic.php?t=13030866

Looks like a hung parliament to me but it seems likely we'll find out for sure in about 2-3 months. Consensus seems to be that one of Johnson's bigger lies was no early GE.

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

I love it when a plan comes together
https://forum.bikeradar.com/viewtopic.php?t=13030866

I guess all that antisemitism is a price you’re willing to pay?

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

I love it when a plan comes together
https://forum.bikeradar.com/viewtopic.php?t=13030866

I guess all that antisemitism is a price you’re willing to pay?

Sorry, I didn't realise that antisemitism was not a problem in Labour before Corbyn became leader :roll:

If the plan keeps an anti-semitic party out of power, do you have a problem with that?

rick_chasey

Well no it wasn’t anywhere near the problem it is now.

I would go as far go say as from a leadership perspective it was not an issue at all.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

Well no it wasn’t anywhere near the problem it is now.

I would go as far go say as from a leadership perspective it was not an issue at all.

I mean the previous leader was actually Jewish and now Jewish members feel they have to leave. Pretty clear what the change is.

kingstongraham

Stevo 666 wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

I love it when a plan comes together
https://forum.bikeradar.com/viewtopic.php?t=13030866

How does that translate into seats? Could well spell a Labour led government, no?

briantrumpet

bobmcstuff wrote:

Major facepalm for Labour, that's just embarrassing.

Not at all surprising - Corbyn's olympic fence-sitting whilst pretending not to want Brexit leaves no-one happy, least of the all the many people like me who might hold their nose and vote Labour if he opposed Brexit, and campaigned to stay in the EU and try to be part of its reform.

Instead of making Labour attractive to a wide range of voters, he's done exactly the opposite. That he still thinks that that's a good way of winning an election shows what an absolute tool he is.

tailwindhome

TailWindHome wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

When the cabinet is finalised there will be more who voted for May's deal than didn't.

I havent checked every name. But off the top of my head only Villiers and Patel didn't vote for May's deal.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

When the cabinet is finalised there will be more who voted for May's deal than didn't.

I havent checked every name. But off the top of my head only Villiers and Patel didn't vote for May's deal.

All but 7 have never voted against the WA! Makes you wonder why they now claim it to be so objectionable.