BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

bobmcstuff

thecycleclinic wrote:

I think Johnson will find he cant get anything through parliament. Tommorrow well find out if his ability to suspend parliament is killed off. He'll go for an election. He has no choice. What rhymes with election but extension. I think it inevitable.

MPs have backed the amendment to ensure Parliament sits through the summer, 315 to 274.

17 Tory MPs rebelled against the government and several left the cabinet. Apparently some are still in the cabinet despite voting against the government, but have not been named.

Reported on FT https://www.ft.com/content/1f4a304a-a95 ... c8325aaa04 and presumably will follow elsewhere, doesn't seem to be on BBC main page yet.

rjsterry

bobmcstuff wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

I think Johnson will find he cant get anything through parliament. Tommorrow well find out if his ability to suspend parliament is killed off. He'll go for an election. He has no choice. What rhymes with election but extension. I think it inevitable.

MPs have backed the amendment to ensure Parliament sits through the summer, 315 to 274.

17 Tory MPs rebelled against the government and several left the cabinet. Apparently some are still in the cabinet despite voting against the government, but have not been named.

Reported on FT https://www.ft.com/content/1f4a304a-a95 ... c8325aaa04 and presumably will follow elsewhere, doesn't seem to be on BBC main page yet.

May clearly thinks Johnson is a disaster and the Gauke, Hammond, Stewart and the other abstentions are unlikely to get positions in a Johnson cabinet so why sack them.

Panorama should be good.

tailwindhome

TailWindHome wrote:

Boris also making his last hustings speech
Has a prop pack of kippers and is waxing lyrical about the daft rules of the EU
He misses a point

George Parker@GeorgeWParker

kipper story accidentally shows what happens to countries outside EU.. like Isle of Man you have to apply EU rules if you want to sell into the single market but you have no say over the rules

Update - apparently these are UK rules.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/ ... 2369072130

slowbike

TailWindHome wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Boris also making his last hustings speech
Has a prop pack of kippers and is waxing lyrical about the daft rules of the EU
He misses a point

George Parker@GeorgeWParker

kipper story accidentally shows what happens to countries outside EU.. like Isle of Man you have to apply EU rules if you want to sell into the single market but you have no say over the rules

Update - apparently these are UK rules.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/ ... 2369072130

Can we de-brexit and abolish our government? they seem to be the least competent of the lot...

sungod

TailWindHome wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Boris also making his last hustings speech
Has a prop pack of kippers and is waxing lyrical about the daft rules of the EU
He misses a point

George Parker@GeorgeWParker

kipper story accidentally shows what happens to countries outside EU.. like Isle of Man you have to apply EU rules if you want to sell into the single market but you have no say over the rules

Update - apparently these are UK rules.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/ ... 2369072130

my immediate thought when i caught a glimpse of the liar johnson waving kippers and blaming the eu was that it was just another lie, he's been making up this tripe for years, as have others, the gullible believe it, which sums up his adoring audience

slowbike

sungod wrote:

my immediate thought when i caught a glimpse of the liar johnson waving kippers and blaming the eu was that it was just another lie, he's been making up this tripe for years, as have others, the gullible believe it, which sums up his adoring audience

well - gullible probably, adoring audience - nope - I would've assumed that anything stated as fact by a(ny) politician should be true.
That one is quite simple - it's either an eu stipulation or not - if it is, then what is the reason behind it - all well and good saying it's a silly rule - it may be, but there needs to be reason behind it.
As it turned out (for now), it isn't an EU rule - so a load of codswallop has been put forth - does BangMeEveryWay Johnson not have a trustworthy source of information? Doesn't he verify these things before spouting forth? Could you trust a word he says?! It's one thing making an off the cuff gaff, but to go in prepared and still get it wrong ... can we really have a PM who has absolutely no credibility?

dabber

We may have laughed then but we're not laughing now

pblakeney

A look across the Atlantic answers that for you.

robert88

Surely facts are an articial device created by the deep state to suppress the Freedom of the Individual?

As such they should be rounded up and sent back to the places they came from.

rjsterry

I find this a very persuasive argument: if the solution to invisible, frictionless border checks is just a matter of some ingenuity and having a 'can do' attitude, why is the backstop even an issue?

fenix

Does Johnson really think he can waffle and BS his way through this ? Surely he must realise it's all going to go to sh!t ?

surrey_commuter

Fenix wrote:

Does Johnson really think he can waffle and BS his way through this ? Surely he must realise it's all going to go to sh!t ?

He has waffled and BS’ed his way to the the brink of being PM, even if he was capable of changing his MO why would he?

robert88

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Fenix wrote:

Does Johnson really think he can waffle and BS his way through this ? Surely he must realise it's all going to go to sh!t ?

He has waffled and BS’ed his way to the the brink of being PM, even if he was capable of changing his MO why would he?

There's a kind of irony suggesting Boris subscribes to the 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' philosophy.

rick_chasey

Not from me but from AC Grayling but rings true...0

Let me get this right: US asks UK to seize Iranian ship. UK complies. Iran seizes two UK-flagged ships. UK in trouble; US says, 'You're on your own'. UK turns to EU for help ......

rolf_f

Rick Chasey wrote:

Not from me but from AC Grayling but rings true...0

Let me get this right: US asks UK to seize Iranian ship. UK complies. Iran seizes two UK-flagged ships. UK in trouble; US says, 'You're on your own'. UK turns to EU for help ......

I'm thinking that there could be some kind of analogy there with something big right now if only I could think what it was.

tailwindhome

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

bobmcstuff

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

I was reading that a lot of senior Tories are preparing for a snap election, and a few of Boris' incoming team are supposed to have a lot of experience with difficult elections.

The basis being Boris will be confronted with complete parliamentary stalemate and will have no choice. They're about to lose Brecon and Radnorshire, plus the Tory MPs who are against no deal already - he is going to have no majority to do anything, especially not to push through a no deal exit.

I think this might be a reasonable assessment, because getting a 2nd ref through parliament would also be difficult and would hamper the Tories at the next GE.

I'm not sure if an NI-only backstop deal would go through so I probably think another extension would be needed to hold the GE.

rjsterry

bobmcstuff wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

I was reading that a lot of senior Tories are preparing for a snap election, and a few of Boris' incoming team are supposed to have a lot of experience with difficult elections.

The basis being Boris will be confronted with complete parliamentary stalemate and will have no choice. They're about to lose Brecon and Radnorshire, plus the Tory MPs who are against no deal already - he is going to have no majority to do anything, especially not to push through a no deal exit.

I think this might be a reasonable assessment, because getting a 2nd ref through parliament would also be difficult and would hamper the Tories at the next GE.

I'm not sure if an NI-only backstop deal would go through so I probably think another extension would be needed to hold the GE.

I really don't see how a GE changes anything. Fewer Labour and Conservative seats; a few more LibDem, ScotsNats, Green and TBP seats. That doesn't get us any closer to a resolution.

darkhairedlord

Johnson could take us out with no deal before the 31st October. He could do it tomorrow, before his hands are tied (assuming he is pm).

drhaggis

darkhairedlord wrote:

Johnson could take us out with no deal before the 31st October. He could do it tomorrow, before his hands are tied (assuming he is pm).

How? How can the exit date be changed unilaterally by him?

darkhairedlord

DrHaggis wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Johnson could take us out with no deal before the 31st October. He could do it tomorrow, before his hands are tied (assuming he is pm).

How? How can the exit date be changed unilaterally by him?

I don't know. Who can stop him?
I thought the extension was just the limit.

bobmcstuff

darkhairedlord wrote:

DrHaggis wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Johnson could take us out with no deal before the 31st October. He could do it tomorrow, before his hands are tied (assuming he is pm).

How? How can the exit date be changed unilaterally by him?

I don't know. Who can stop him?
I thought the extension was just the limit.

Presumably they would need to pass something in Parliament to do that. I thought the date at which the laws all changed was set in an Act of Parliament so you would need to pass another before then?

bobmcstuff

rjsterry wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

I was reading that a lot of senior Tories are preparing for a snap election, and a few of Boris' incoming team are supposed to have a lot of experience with difficult elections.

The basis being Boris will be confronted with complete parliamentary stalemate and will have no choice. They're about to lose Brecon and Radnorshire, plus the Tory MPs who are against no deal already - he is going to have no majority to do anything, especially not to push through a no deal exit.

I think this might be a reasonable assessment, because getting a 2nd ref through parliament would also be difficult and would hamper the Tories at the next GE.

I'm not sure if an NI-only backstop deal would go through so I probably think another extension would be needed to hold the GE.

I really don't see how a GE changes anything. Fewer Labour and Conservative seats; a few more LibDem, ScotsNats, Green and TBP seats. That doesn't get us any closer to a resolution.

No, you're right - I dont think it would solve anything either. I'm not sure a second ref would either.

I just think there won't be any other choice, which is a different thing.

rick_chasey

rjsterry wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

I was reading that a lot of senior Tories are preparing for a snap election, and a few of Boris' incoming team are supposed to have a lot of experience with difficult elections.

The basis being Boris will be confronted with complete parliamentary stalemate and will have no choice. They're about to lose Brecon and Radnorshire, plus the Tory MPs who are against no deal already - he is going to have no majority to do anything, especially not to push through a no deal exit.

I think this might be a reasonable assessment, because getting a 2nd ref through parliament would also be difficult and would hamper the Tories at the next GE.

I'm not sure if an NI-only backstop deal would go through so I probably think another extension would be needed to hold the GE.

I really don't see how a GE changes anything. Fewer Labour and Conservative seats; a few more LibDem, ScotsNats, Green and TBP seats. That doesn't get us any closer to a resolution.

Plenty of Tories believe Johnson is electoral catnip.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

You (and May) believed it would go through last year.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

So what's your money on?

My hunch is the deal goes through with an NI only backstop and a GE soon after.

I was reading that a lot of senior Tories are preparing for a snap election, and a few of Boris' incoming team are supposed to have a lot of experience with difficult elections.

The basis being Boris will be confronted with complete parliamentary stalemate and will have no choice. They're about to lose Brecon and Radnorshire, plus the Tory MPs who are against no deal already - he is going to have no majority to do anything, especially not to push through a no deal exit.

I think this might be a reasonable assessment, because getting a 2nd ref through parliament would also be difficult and would hamper the Tories at the next GE.

I'm not sure if an NI-only backstop deal would go through so I probably think another extension would be needed to hold the GE.

I really don't see how a GE changes anything. Fewer Labour and Conservative seats; a few more LibDem, ScotsNats, Green and TBP seats. That doesn't get us any closer to a resolution.

Plenty of Tories believe Johnson is electoral catnip.

All the polling says otherwise.

rick_chasey

I think this lot of Tories gave up listening to experts a long time ago.

He may have a majority with one by September, including DUP support, so he’s up the creek without a paddle.

Very worryingly I read a rumour that he wants to make Gove Northern Ireland secretary; the same guy who compared the good Friday agreement to Chamberlain’s appeasement paper with Nazi Germany....

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

I think this lot of Tories gave up listening to experts a long time ago.

He may have a majority with one by September, including DUP support, so he’s up the creek without a paddle.

Very worryingly I read a rumour that he wants to make Gove Northern Ireland secretary; the same guy who compared the good Friday agreement to Chamberlain’s appeasement paper with Nazi Germany....

I think it's hope rather than expectation and he makes them mostly feel good about themselves. Better Gove than Bradley or Gavin Williamson. But the former has also been tipped for DHCLG.

verylonglegs

I'm also baffled why the Conservatives have so much faith in Johnson. The lifelong Tory voters in my social circle are horrified by him and want shot of him as soon as possible and I know a few non-Tory leave voters who are completely aghast at him coming to power. They want out but still acknowledge you have to deal with the EU on the best possible terms and consider Johnson a total bellend.

robert88

verylonglegs wrote:

I'm also baffled why the Conservatives have so much faith in Johnson. The lifelong Tory voters in my social circle are horrified by him and want shot of him as soon as possible and I know a few non-Tory leave voters who are completely aghast at him coming to power. They want out but still acknowledge you have to deal with the EU on the best possible terms and consider Johnson a total bellend.

No live people with whom I have discussed Bojo say otherwise. I don't ask how they vote altho' most are anti-brexit in varying degrees.