BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Stevo 666 wrote:
Exchange rate was around 1.29 when the referendum was announced in Feb 2016. It is around 1.11 now.Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.Rick Chasey wrote:The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21
That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y
What’s not suitable about the given time frames?
Seems fairly all encompassing.
how about since DC called the referendum?
in the holidaying punters mind it has gone from a mental calculation of 1.5 to parity.
So not only are they stealing our fish, they're putting up the price of our great British holidays abroad. Sooner we're out the better.0 -
If you say so.KingstonGraham wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Exchange rate was around 1.29 when the referendum was announced in Feb 2016. It is around 1.11 now.Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.Rick Chasey wrote:The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21
That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y
What’s not suitable about the given time frames?
Seems fairly all encompassing.
how about since DC called the referendum?
in the holidaying punters mind it has gone from a mental calculation of 1.5 to parity.
So not only are they stealing our fish, they're putting up the price of our great British holidays abroad. Sooner we're out the better."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
KingstonGraham wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Exchange rate was around 1.29 when the referendum was announced in Feb 2016. It is around 1.11 now.Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.Rick Chasey wrote:The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21
That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y
What’s not suitable about the given time frames?
Seems fairly all encompassing.
how about since DC called the referendum?
in the holidaying punters mind it has gone from a mental calculation of 1.5 to parity.
So not only are they stealing our fish, they're putting up the price of our great British holidays abroad. Sooner we're out the better.
Exchange rates are a bit of a red herring.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Exchange rate was around 1.29 when the referendum was announced in Feb 2016. It is around 1.11 now.Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.Rick Chasey wrote:The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21
That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y
What’s not suitable about the given time frames?
Seems fairly all encompassing.
how about since DC called the referendum?
in the holidaying punters mind it has gone from a mental calculation of 1.5 to parity.
It started falling the autumn before as the bill passed through Parliament0 -
Robert88 wrote:KingstonGraham wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Exchange rate was around 1.29 when the referendum was announced in Feb 2016. It is around 1.11 now.Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.Rick Chasey wrote:The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21
That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y
What’s not suitable about the given time frames?
Seems fairly all encompassing.
how about since DC called the referendum?
in the holidaying punters mind it has gone from a mental calculation of 1.5 to parity.
So not only are they stealing our fish, they're putting up the price of our great British holidays abroad. Sooner we're out the better.
Exchange rates are a bit of a red herring.
Or it is an indicator of the markets future perception of the relative strength of the economy0 -
rjsterry wrote:Funny (not) that Brexit is still stuck on the NI trilemma of leaving the SM & CU, not creating a hard border and not differentiating between NI and GB. Ivan Rogers says he told May and Johnson this in autumn 2016, and here are Hunt and Johnson still claiming they can have all three.
https://twitter.com/jp_biz/status/11511 ... 12608?s=210 -
Rick Chasey wrote:rjsterry wrote:Funny (not) that Brexit is still stuck on the NI trilemma of leaving the SM & CU, not creating a hard border and not differentiating between NI and GB. Ivan Rogers says he told May and Johnson this in autumn 2016, and here are Hunt and Johnson still claiming they can have all three.
https://twitter.com/jp_biz/status/11511 ... 12608?s=21
I've stated this repeatedly. It's a simple logic problem.
A=B
B=C
A<>C
Where A = Mainland UK
B = Northern Ireland
C = Ireland
is not possible.
It was never fooking difficult to see any solution would be a compromised fudge. The impasse in parliament was because of the fudge and the proposed solution to the fudge is a return to fantasy land politics.
It's either a new government or no deal. I have no idea which will prevail.0 -
Peterborough was clean, police report.0
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New EU president is professionally qualified to deal with Johnson and Farage.0
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Stevo 666 wrote:
I didn't say your time frames were unsuitable. Point is that that with a different set of time frames you can tell a different story.Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.Rick Chasey wrote:The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21
That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y
What’s not suitable about the given time frames?
Seems fairly all encompassing.
You can but it won't necessarily be relevant. I can post my average speed into work yesterday and then look at my average on my way home and be appalled at the deterioration of my fitness. Or I can just note that the return trip is uphill and that the more relevant time period covers both out and return trips. There's no point looking selectively at an inappropriately short and specific time period unless there is some other relevance to that time period which you should be able to define.
And whether the exchange rate has gone from 1.29 to 1.11 doesn't alter the fact that we are moving from a point where mental calculations are going from 1.5 to 1.0. That the first over-estimates the value of the pound and the latter under-estimates it doesn't stop people thinking that way.Faster than a tent.......0 -
Just hoping something sensible happens before I go to the PNW August/September otherwise the trip is going to be very much more expensive than planned :shock: :shock:0
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bobmcstuff wrote:Just hoping something sensible happens before I go to the PNW August/September otherwise the trip is going to be very much more expensive than planned :shock: :shock:
if you mean Aug/Sept this year then not a hope0 -
Yeah, I know.Surrey Commuter wrote:bobmcstuff wrote:Just hoping something sensible happens before I go to the PNW August/September otherwise the trip is going to be very much more expensive than planned :shock: :shock:
if you mean Aug/Sept this year then not a hope
I'm just hoping Johnson says something moderately normal sounding after he actually gets in.
Fortunately we've paid ahead for most of the accommodation.0 -
bobmcstuff wrote:Just hoping something sensible happens before I go to the PNW August/September otherwise the trip is going to be very much more expensive than planned :shock: :shock:
Your holiday is a price worth paying.0 -
https://www.ft.com/content/bbd3d308-a86 ... c8325aaa04
Maybe it'll be OK...Daniel Trum, FX analyst at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the pound is now “entering oversold territory and should rebound once markets realise that October will see another extension of the Brexit deadline.”
“A no-deal Brexit this year would probably see the pound dropping to $1.15. Hence, we believe that at around $1.24 markets are already pricing at least a 50% risk of a no-deal happening,” he said.0 -
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Stevo 666 wrote:
Separate matter - my point still stands.Rolf F wrote:You can but it won't necessarily be relevant.
Currency exchange rates aren’t that important if you haven’t trade agreements in place for the free movement of goods.
Then again forex traders aren’t known for their social utility“Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime. Teach a man to cycle and he will realize fishing is stupid and boring”
Desmond Tutu0 -
Another separate matter. Which I think we're aware of...Slowmart wrote:"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Boris Johnson said to be including Daniel Moylan in his Brexit team.
I'd think this is an indicator of a growing likelihood of No Deal
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Boris also making his last hustings speech
Has a prop pack of kippers and is waxing lyrical about the daft rules of the EU
He misses a pointGeorge Parker@GeorgeWParker
kipper story accidentally shows what happens to countries outside EU.. like Isle of Man you have to apply EU rules if you want to sell into the single market but you have no say over the rules“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.0 -
Some pretty obvious stuff there.Robert88 wrote:Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.
Forex traders are simply intermedisries. We do most of our forex transactions on an online platform and have done for some time. The banks put their FX price quotes for our desired transactions on it and we take the best price.
Not sure that your statement above is particularly accurate. For starters we know what we are doing on import and export transactions and have a team of in-house experts."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Some pretty obvious stuff there.Robert88 wrote:Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.
Forex traders are simply intermedisries. We do most of our forex transactions on an online platform and have done for some time. The banks put their FX price quotes for our desired transactions on it and we take the best price.
Not sure that your statement above is particularly accurate. For starters we know what we are doing on import and export transactions and have a team of in-house experts.
And wildly fluctuating unpredictable rates keeps them all in gravy.0 -
Only if they are trading on their own account and then they still would have to make the right bet. Sounds like you are a bit resentful about FX traders for some reason?darkhairedlord wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Some pretty obvious stuff there.Robert88 wrote:Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.
Forex traders are simply intermedisries. We do most of our forex transactions on an online platform and have done for some time. The banks put their FX price quotes for our desired transactions on it and we take the best price.
Not sure that your statement above is particularly accurate. For starters we know what we are doing on import and export transactions and have a team of in-house experts.
And wildly fluctuating unpredictable rates keeps them all in gravy.
What I am talking about is companies such as my employer acting as the principal; in this situation the banks are simply the middle men/transaction facilitator and their margins on this type of business are pretty thin.
When have FX future rates been predictable out of interest?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I think Johnson will find he cant get anything through parliament. Tommorrow well find out if his ability to suspend parliament is killed off. He'll go for an election. He has no choice. What rhymes with election but extension. I think it inevitable.http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0
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Stevo 666 wrote:
Some pretty obvious stuff there.Robert88 wrote:Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.
Forex traders are simply intermedisries. We do most of our forex transactions on an online platform and have done for some time. The banks put their FX price quotes for our desired transactions on it and we take the best price.
Not sure that your statement above is particularly accurate. For starters we know what we are doing on import and export transactions and have a team of in-house experts.
We'd a client who told us they knew what they were doing and failed to notice that their goods could have been imported duty-free if they had. It cost them a great deal of money in overpaid duty which they could not get back retrospectively. A big company based in the North-east.
Arrogant complacency can be expensive.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:
Only if they are trading on their own account and then they still would have to make the right bet. Sounds like you are a bit resentful about FX traders for some reason?darkhairedlord wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Some pretty obvious stuff there.Robert88 wrote:Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.
Forex traders are simply intermedisries. We do most of our forex transactions on an online platform and have done for some time. The banks put their FX price quotes for our desired transactions on it and we take the best price.
Not sure that your statement above is particularly accurate. For starters we know what we are doing on import and export transactions and have a team of in-house experts.
And wildly fluctuating unpredictable rates keeps them all in gravy.
What I am talking about is companies such as my employer acting as the principal; in this situation the banks are simply the middle men/transaction facilitator and their margins on this type of business are pretty thin.
When have FX future rates been predictable out of interest?
I'm not in the least bit resentful of currency traders, they provide a very valuable service to to commerce.
It's the the spiv's and manipulators that are the problem.0 -
darkhairedlord wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Only if they are trading on their own account and then they still would have to make the right bet. Sounds like you are a bit resentful about FX traders for some reason?darkhairedlord wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Some pretty obvious stuff there.Robert88 wrote:Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.
Forex traders are simply intermedisries. We do most of our forex transactions on an online platform and have done for some time. The banks put their FX price quotes for our desired transactions on it and we take the best price.
Not sure that your statement above is particularly accurate. For starters we know what we are doing on import and export transactions and have a team of in-house experts.
And wildly fluctuating unpredictable rates keeps them all in gravy.
What I am talking about is companies such as my employer acting as the principal; in this situation the banks are simply the middle men/transaction facilitator and their margins on this type of business are pretty thin.
When have FX future rates been predictable out of interest?
I'm not in the least bit resentful of currency traders, they provide a very valuable service to to commerce.
It's the the spiv's and manipulators that are the problem.
Can you blame them if incompetent politicians open the door to them? One example being so-called Black Wednesday when Norman Lamont simply set the bar too high and let traders like George Soros stroll under it and make a mint from their short position. Who was the manipulator then?
We have more even less competent politicians around now. How scary is that? Although it's possible the markets have done a lot to factor in our precarious situation already they may not have done enough yet.0 -
Robert88 wrote:
Can you blame them if incompetent politicians open the door to them?
Yes, but blaming them won't stop it happening.0 -
Robert88 wrote:darkhairedlord wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Only if they are trading on their own account and then they still would have to make the right bet. Sounds like you are a bit resentful about FX traders for some reason?darkhairedlord wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:
Some pretty obvious stuff there.Robert88 wrote:Slowmart wrote:
Forex traders are useful.
If you are selling/buying stuff internationally it is possible to buy forward rates on currencies in order to firm up your cost forecasts. i.e. you can guarantee what exchange rates will be used for a transaction even though it is way in the future.
Forex traders make that possible. Importers/exporters are pretty clueless on a lot of the stuff they employ agents for. They can't afford to pay experts full-time.
Forex traders are simply intermedisries. We do most of our forex transactions on an online platform and have done for some time. The banks put their FX price quotes for our desired transactions on it and we take the best price.
Not sure that your statement above is particularly accurate. For starters we know what we are doing on import and export transactions and have a team of in-house experts.
And wildly fluctuating unpredictable rates keeps them all in gravy.
What I am talking about is companies such as my employer acting as the principal; in this situation the banks are simply the middle men/transaction facilitator and their margins on this type of business are pretty thin.
When have FX future rates been predictable out of interest?
I'm not in the least bit resentful of currency traders, they provide a very valuable service to to commerce.
It's the the spiv's and manipulators that are the problem.
Can you blame them if incompetent politicians open the door to them? One example being so-called Black Wednesday when Norman Lamont simply set the bar too high and let traders like George Soros stroll under it and make a mint from their short position. Who was the manipulator then?
We have more even less competent politicians around now. How scary is that? Although it's possible the markets have done a lot to factor in our precarious situation already they may not have done enough yet.
It's when the politicians making the random statements are the same as spiv's making hay from the fluctuations. They know exactly what is gonig to happen in the market before they open theirs mouths.0
