BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

Goo, I think your thread title changes are quite amusing.

Although as you're the OP you can do what the **** you want with the thread title and all everyone else can do is moan about it. Which is kind of in keeping with the nature of this thread

I'd have more sympathy with Goo if he wasn't so thin skinned himself.

Anyway. Interesting that Liam Fox is pouring cold water on Johnson's plan to strike a limited trade deal with the US in time for 1st November. Given he's previously bragged about how many deals will be ready to go when we leave, is it a sudden attack of realism or just a dig at Johnson?

mamil314

Uhh, JRM did you just
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... k-homepage

kingstongraham

I think the thread title should go proper random and take out BREXIT, make it a game of hide and seek.

surrey_commuter

darkhairedlord wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Slowmart wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Slowmart wrote:

I would have said the Ms Miller has a rather appealing head.

Although it sounds there might be a queue to hold Boris’s feet to the fire regarding perouging Parliament.

While boris is always comparing himself against Cameron, I'm not sure where you're going with this.

I thought Churchill was Boris’s go to masturbation material or looking at himself while he beats off to a Maggie T speech.

There has always been rivalry between the two with Boris outdoing Cameron, house captain, tennis etc. Boris wouldn't be that bothered but knows it winds up Cameron, hence he would would stick his thingy in gm's mouth to outdo Cameron with the pig.

I think it is the other way round with Boris being outshone by his junior

he may have out-shone him to us plebs, but he was house captain and beat him at tennis. That is much more important in "real" circle of power.

Boris's contemporary was DC's older brother so being surpassed by his mate's kid brother would have hurt

bobmcstuff

mamil314 wrote:

Uhh, JRM did you just
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... k-homepage

You have to assume his fellow Brexit supporters will see the sentiment and not think about how incorrect it is.

rjsterry

I see that Trump has unintentionally set another test for the prospective leaders.

kingstongraham

rjsterry wrote:

I see that Trump has unintentionally set another test for the prospective leaders.

What's he done now? Other than the racism.

bobmcstuff

https://www.ft.com/content/58044bca-a49 ... 1c6ab5efd1

To summarise, several commentators suggest that the most obvious route for a deal for Boris is to extend the transition period for several more years or to make it extendable, which has the following benefits:

1. More closely aligned with the time to develop a proper trade deal
2. Does not break anyone's red lines
3. No need for Irish backstop to be used (debatable IMO but it would seem a lot less likely)
4. Britain leaves the EU on paper at least
5. DUP in favour
6. Leave supporting Labour MPs in favour

Cons:
1. Hard Brexiters likely to be very against extending transition
2. Backstop would need to stay in the text as an insurance

Extending the transition is seen as the only thing you probably could get a majority for in Parliament.

rjsterry

KingstonGraham wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

I see that Trump has unintentionally set another test for the prospective leaders.

What's he done now? Other than the racism.

Just that. Can either candidate balance the need to maintain a friendly relationship with the US with clear criticism of Trump's disgusting racism. Ruth Davidson has specifically challenged both of them to do this.

tailwindhome

bobmcstuff wrote:

https://www.ft.com/content/58044bca-a49e-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1

To summarise, several commentators suggest that the most obvious route for a deal for Boris is to extend the transition period for several more years or to make it extendable, which has the following benefits:

1. More closely aligned with the time to develop a proper trade deal
2. Does not break anyone's red lines
3. No need for Irish backstop to be used (debatable IMO but it would seem a lot less likely)
4. Britain leaves the EU on paper at least
5. DUP in favour
6. Leave supporting Labour MPs in favour

Cons:
1. Hard Brexiters likely to be very against extending transition
2. Backstop would need to stay in the text as an insurance

Extending the transition is seen as the only thing you probably could get a majority for in Parliament.

The DUP won't support it if the backstop is still in the WA.

kingstongraham

rjsterry wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

I see that Trump has unintentionally set another test for the prospective leaders.

What's he done now? Other than the racism.

Just that. Can either candidate balance the need to maintain a friendly relationship with the US with clear criticism of Trump's disgusting racism.

You think that's something of interest to Conservative party members?

Hunt looking competent re:Iran should be of more interest, but I fear Brexit is the only game in town.

drhaggis

bobmcstuff wrote:

https://www.ft.com/content/58044bca-a49e-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1

To summarise, several commentators suggest that the most obvious route for a deal for Boris is to extend the transition period for several more years or to make it extendable, which has the following benefits:

1. More closely aligned with the time to develop a proper trade deal
2. Does not break anyone's red lines
3. No need for Irish backstop to be used (debatable IMO but it would seem a lot less likely)
4. Britain leaves the EU on paper at least
5. DUP in favour
6. Leave supporting Labour MPs in favour

Cons:
1. Hard Brexiters likely to be very against extending transition
2. Backstop would need to stay in the text as an insurance

Extending the transition is seen as the only thing you probably could get a majority for in Parliament.

3. Surely if the extension goes past the current budget (1/1/2021?) and the UK keeps (most of) its rights, there will still be a UK contribution to the EU budget

rjsterry

A slightly more intellectualised version of Johnson's "f*** business" quote from Bernard Jenkin.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukandeu/stat ... 6165020672

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/sir-bernard-jenki ... stitution/
It appears "some dislocation" is the new euphemism for businesses going under and people losing jobs.

rjsterry

KingstonGraham wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

I see that Trump has unintentionally set another test for the prospective leaders.

What's he done now? Other than the racism.

Just that. Can either candidate balance the need to maintain a friendly relationship with the US with clear criticism of Trump's disgusting racism.

You think that's something of interest to Conservative party members?

Hunt looking competent re:Iran should be of more interest, but I fear Brexit is the only game in town.

Well, expectations correctly managed, I suppose. Very much a B- response from both of them.

rjsterry

An interesting thread on likely response to Johnson's Brexit plan and what he might actually get. Seems to chime with that FT article from earlier.

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/11 ... 9409842180

Also this summary of probabilities.

Charles Grant
@CER_Grant
20% chance of no deal, 50% chance of leaving with a deal similar to May’s deal, 30% chance of Referendum. Those options could precede or follow an election, which seems quite likely.
@CER_EU

bobmcstuff

rjsterry wrote:

An interesting thread on likely response to Johnson's Brexit plan and what he might actually get. Seems to chime with that FT article from earlier.

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/11 ... 9409842180

Also this summary of probabilities.

Charles Grant
@CER_Grant
20% chance of no deal, 50% chance of leaving with a deal similar to May’s deal, 30% chance of Referendum. Those options could precede or follow an election, which seems quite likely.
@CER_EU

I agree with all that except I really struggle to see a general election happening before there is some concrete way forward on Brexit - even with a new leader the Conservatives (and Labour) will be running terrified of the Brexit party (and Lib Dems etc in remainy areas).

I think that ultimately the only way to break the deadlock might end up being a 2nd ref because it's the only way to get a way forward where the MPs still get to keep their seats... Either that or a few face saving tweaks to May's deal which allow both sides to claim victory. Either of those would be OK for me although counterintuitively (as someone who thinks we shouldn't leave at all) I sort of feel a tweaked May deal would be preferable...... Another referendum would be chaotic.

I probably agree proroguing parliament is not likely, there would be protests I think (I'd be out for sure).

tailwindhome

It seems from Twitter that both candidates have said they'd reject a time limit to or unilateral exit from the backstop.

Not really sure what to say about that.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

It seems from Twitter that both candidates have said they'd reject a time limit to or unilateral exit from the backstop.

Not really sure what to say about that.

Erm, do you mean that neither will accept those as enough of a concession on the backstop or that neither will accept any kind of backstop?

rolf_f

rjsterry wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

It seems from Twitter that both candidates have said they'd reject a time limit to or unilateral exit from the backstop.

Not really sure what to say about that.

Erm, do you mean that neither will accept those as enough of a concession on the backstop or that neither will accept any kind of backstop?

Apparently the latter. So no deal it is.

Amazing what you can achieve with two years worth of negotiation time at the highest level. Mind you, given how the Tories have pissed up the wall pretty much all of the extension period it's hardly surprising.

robert88

JD Wetherspoon’s run of record of profits set to come to an end despite sales surge

"..a surge in costs, particularly staff wages, means Wetherspoons’ top-line growth is unlikely to translate into higher profits when the company reports its full-year results in September."

It'll be interesting to see how they perform after Brexit, especially with no deal reached.

Late 2018:

chairman and founder Tim Martin said he now expects a “trading outcome slightly below” that achieved in the previous financial year.

“As has been widely reported, unemployment is at a record low, putting upward pressure on wages. As a result, Wetherspoon is increasing the pay of our staff starting from this week.”

Martin added that ‘Spoons won’t immediately look to pass on these extra costs to consumers in the form of higher prices, although it will review this position later in the year."

Wetherspoon is of course an outspoken Brexit supporter.

rick_chasey

The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21

As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.

That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21

As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.

That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y

What’s not suitable about the given time frames?

Seems fairly all encompassing.

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21

As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.

That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y

What’s not suitable about the given time frames?

Seems fairly all encompassing.

how about since DC called the referendum?

in the holidaying punters mind it has gone from a mental calculation of 1.5 to parity.

robert88

It's very useful for some that their FCBAs are now outwith the scope of CGT.

kingstongraham

rjsterry wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

I see that Trump has unintentionally set another test for the prospective leaders.

What's he done now? Other than the racism.

Just that. Can either candidate balance the need to maintain a friendly relationship with the US with clear criticism of Trump's disgusting racism.

You think that's something of interest to Conservative party members?

Hunt looking competent re:Iran should be of more interest, but I fear Brexit is the only game in town.

Well, expectations correctly managed, I suppose. Very much a B- response from both of them.

Apparently what he said was "unacceptable" and "offensive", but neither of them were willing to say why.

rjsterry

Funny (not) that Brexit is still stuck on the NI trilemma of leaving the SM & CU, not creating a hard border and not differentiating between NI and GB. Ivan Rogers says he told May and Johnson this in autumn 2016, and here are Hunt and Johnson still claiming they can have all three.

tailwindhome

https://twitter.com/martinpoler/status/ ... 0168731651

Euro Guido
@EuroGuido
The only party currently bothering to turn up for EU debates...

Err...no

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21

As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.

That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y

What’s not suitable about the given time frames?

Seems fairly all encompassing.

I didn't say your time frames were unsuitable. Point is that that with a different set of time frames you can tell a different story.

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

The pound sterling is the worst performing major currency in the world over the past 24 hours, over the past month, over the past three months and over the past year

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 04544?s=21

As some on here have said in reply to other things: 'but we haven't left yet'.

That said, if you care to pick a different set of suitable dates then Sterling very likely has been one of the best performing currencies in the recent past, for example between mid-December and Mid-March just gone.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y

What’s not suitable about the given time frames?

Seems fairly all encompassing.

how about since DC called the referendum?

in the holidaying punters mind it has gone from a mental calculation of 1.5 to parity.

Exchange rate was around 1.29 when the referendum was announced in Feb 2016. It is around 1.11 now.