The Hour *** spoilers ***

ugo.santalucia

Wiggins: maybe 54 is a bit ambitious, but I reckon it will do > 53. To use EKIMIKE's metaphor, he's got the engine and he's got the tank... on top of that he is a master of strategy

ocdupalais

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Wiggins: maybe 54 is a bit ambitious, but I reckon it will do > 53. To use EKIMIKE's metaphor, he's got the engine and he's got the tank... on top of that he is a master of strategy

It seems amazing - and in the light of Bobridge's effort, almost unbelievable - but a very reliable source let it slip that the Wiggins camp are viewing upper 55kmh as realistic. If that is true then it's because he's putting out the numbers (along with an element of improvement trajectory between now and his attempt) and the Bobridge attempt won't alter that. What it will do is alter the public perception of whether Wiggins can do it or not...

ocdupalais

Basically, it would mean Wiggins starting even slightly faster than Bobridge - and then getting a bit faster towards the end...

ugo.santalucia

OCDuPalais wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Wiggins: maybe 54 is a bit ambitious, but I reckon it will do > 53. To use EKIMIKE's metaphor, he's got the engine and he's got the tank... on top of that he is a master of strategy

It seems amazing - and in the light of Bobridge's effort, almost unbelievable - but a very reliable source let it slip that the Wiggins camp are viewing upper 55kmh as realistic. If that is true then it's because he's putting out the numbers (along with an element of improvement trajectory between now and his attempt) and the Bobridge attempt won't alter that. What it will do is alter the public perception of whether Wiggins can do it or not...

It is hard to say, as no one of his calibre has had a go since the days of Boardman. I would say it is realistic, in view of the Worlds results, to see Wiggins doing 2 Km/h better than Brandle... 4Kmh better than Brandle seems a bit too much. That said, I never thought he could win the Tour, so I am ready to be astonished!

Yellow Peril

I just didn't get a sense of great prep for this. He was 3rd in the National TT behind Porte and Dennis, he raced very hard in the TdU and his TT position didn't look the very best.

You just know with Dowsett or Wiggins that uber OCD attention to detail will prevail, that's what makes great testers isn't it?

joelsim

In the World's ITT, Wiggo was 3km/h quicker than Brandle and only 0.8km/h quicker than Dennis.

That would indicate 55 ish km is possible for Wiggo, 54 for Dennis. Unscientifically.

tailwindhome

Obree reckons he should go again
http://cyclingtips.com.au/2015/02/obree ... five-days/

maddog 2

TailWindHome wrote:

Interesting to see how consistent Jens was.His variation either side of his moving average is the smallest of the three, including in the final phase when you'd expect him to 'pulse' more. Brandle was pretty good too with just the odd lap jumping about.

Bobridge was all over the place though, especially in the last half.It looks like he had a go at increasing his pace at about24km in but couldn't sustain it and bombed.

JackPozzi

TailWindHome wrote:

Obree reckons he should go again
http://cyclingtips.com.au/2015/02/obree ... five-days/

Damn, thought you meant Obree was going to have another go!

ozzzyosborn206

I think Martin will run Wiggins v close, maybe even beat him? He won't go into it unless he knows there is a good chance of beating whatever Wiggins does. Also think sooner or later Phinney will have a go and will certainly be a match for the record at the time, he has a lot more years left

frenchfighter

Wow thats a really bad result from him. Beaten by no-name Brandle...

I guess it shows how important pacing is.

No_Ta_Doctor

maddog 2 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Interesting to see how consistent Jens was.His variation either side of his moving average is the smallest of the three, including in the final phase when you'd expect him to 'pulse' more. Brandle was pretty good too with just the odd lap jumping about.

Bobridge was all over the place though, especially in the last half.It looks like he had a go at increasing his pace at about24km in but couldn't sustain it and bombed.

That is seriously poor pacing. With that amount of slowing and speeding he probably put out more watts than the two others. Complete mess.

Mad_Malx

Wonder what was going on at point 3 and 4

EKIMIKE

He momentarily recalled a logical pacing strategy?

Pross

My guess is Wiggins graph will start close to Brandle's and be shaped similarly to Voigt's.

RichN95.

Pross wrote:

My guess is Wiggins graph will start close to Brandle's and be shaped similarly to Voigt's.

I think it will look like Voigt's. Sky love a negative split.

The_Boy

RichN95 wrote:

Pross wrote:

My guess is Wiggins graph will start close to Brandle's and be shaped similarly to Voigt's.

I think it will look like Voigt's. Sky love a negative split.

I think that was Pross' point. It'll look the same, but starting from a higher point. Or am I misreading due to the Half Man Half Biscuit induced ringing in my ears?

RichN95.

The_Boy wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Pross wrote:

My guess is Wiggins graph will start close to Brandle's and be shaped similarly to Voigt's.

I think it will look like Voigt's. Sky love a negative split.

I think that was Pross' point. It'll look the same, but starting from a higher point. Or am I misreading due to the Half Man Half Biscuit induced ringing in my ears?

Yeah. I think we all think the same.

The_Boy

RichN95 wrote:

The_Boy wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Pross wrote:

My guess is Wiggins graph will start close to Brandle's and be shaped similarly to Voigt's.

I think it will look like Voigt's. Sky love a negative split.

I think that was Pross' point. It'll look the same, but starting from a higher point. Or am I misreading due to the Half Man Half Biscuit induced ringing in my ears?

Yeah. I think we all think the same.

Good, good. Makes a nice change .

As it happens, Nigel Blackwell's value tips for the Tour: Kwiatkowski and Kelderman.

xavierdisley

No tA Doctor wrote:

That is seriously poor pacing. With that amount of slowing and speeding he probably put out more watts than the two others. Complete mess.

No, definitely not. I got Voigt at 378w average (it wasn't 412w as reported elsewhere), likely 10-20w higher for Braendle but I had Bobridge at mid 300s average by the end. First 20 laps were 80w higher than the last 20 laps :shock:

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

I think it will look like Voigt's. Sky love a negative split.

Not exclusive to sky is it?

Macaloon

The_Boy wrote:

As it happens, Nigel Blackwell's value tips for the Tour: Kwiatkowski and Kelderman.

OT An under-appreciated genius. Will be remembered as a great English writer.

Yellow Peril

xavierdisley wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

That is seriously poor pacing. With that amount of slowing and speeding he probably put out more watts than the two others. Complete mess.

No, definitely not. I got Voigt at 378w average (it wasn't 412w as reported elsewhere), likely 10-20w higher for Braendle but I had Bobridge at mid 300s average by the end. First 20 laps were 80w higher than the last 20 laps :shock:

Xavier, any views on Bobridge's position on the bike? It didn't look optimal to me, he seemed a little upright almost an Ironman position. I watched Voigt's hour and thought he had a lower profile

ozzzyosborn206

xavierdisley wrote:

No tA Doctor wrote:

That is seriously poor pacing. With that amount of slowing and speeding he probably put out more watts than the two others. Complete mess.

No, definitely not. I got Voigt at 378w average (it wasn't 412w as reported elsewhere), likely 10-20w higher for Braendle but I had Bobridge at mid 300s average by the end. First 20 laps were 80w higher than the last 20 laps :shock:

Not as high numbers as i expected, I guess they would be capable of higher numbers on the road? Any idea how much weight difference has an effect on the track?

xavierdisley

Yellow Peril wrote:

Xavier, any views on Bobridge's position on the bike? It didn't look optimal to me, he seemed a little upright almost an Ironman position. I watched Voigt's hour and thought he had a lower profile

It didn't look great did it. He swapped aerobars last minute (3T Aduros from a Cervelo P5 to Brezza II Nanos) but appeared to keep the same position on both. His elbows were much wider and hands much higher than his typical team pursuit position, even though he said in an interview he'd keep exactly the same position, just use a bike with slacker geometry (he rides a BT when racing for the Aussie team).

If they thought he was going to do 53km with ~375w as per insinuations then that's a CdA of ~0.193m^2 on the day, but it was probably about 0.014m^2 higher than that and he ballsed it up so didn't even do 375w.

xavierdisley

ozzzyosborn206 wrote:

xavierdisley wrote:

No, definitely not. I got Voigt at 378w average (it wasn't 412w as reported elsewhere), likely 10-20w higher for Braendle but I had Bobridge at mid 300s average by the end. First 20 laps were 80w higher than the last 20 laps :shock:

Not as high numbers as i expected, I guess they would be capable of higher numbers on the road? Any idea how much weight difference has an effect on the track?

Voigt was losing huge power by having a really low position. You can tell by the fact he sped up on the laps where he got out of the saddle (after halfway, it was every 10 laps or so), which because of the increase in aerodynamic drag by getting out of the bars would have required >500w down the back straight. You can only do that if you're losing buckets in the aero position and sitting up allows you to get the power out. He was also at slight altitude ~450m which knocks a handful of watts off (but lets you go further). His road FTP is well over 400w, it's quite different doing an hour record - not even the same as a 25/30 mile TT.

Brändle was very impressive. Solid as a rock and didn't get out of the saddle, plus he did it on a 200m track (compared with 250m for Voigt/Bobridge) which further increases the G force in the turns, heightened by his size as he's 6'2.

joelsim

frenchfighter wrote:

Wow thats a really bad result from him. Beaten by no-name Brandle...

I guess it shows how important pacing is.

Where is this Brandle rubbish coming from? Look at his results last year. Better than Bobridge and Dowsett in my view. I know for one thing, every time I put Brandle into my road.cc fantasy team he came up trumps which is more than I can say for either Jack or Alex. He is a good TTer who performed very well last year after a slow start. Don't underestimate him.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/Matthias_Brandle

tailwindhome

OK I've have a couple of stout after a dry January so.......

Bobridge did 51.3km - say a 250m track = 205.2laps
If Wiggins does 55.km that would be 220 laps

So (if they were on the same track and ignoring drafting) he would lap him 14 times or every 4 and a 1/2 minutes.

*opens another tin and thinks about it*

Macaloon

TailWindHome wrote:

OK I've have a couple of stout after a dry January so.......

Bobridge did 51.3km - say a 250m track = 205.2laps
If Wiggins does 55.km that would be 220 laps

So (if they were on the same track and ignoring drafting) he would lap him 14 times or every 4 and a 1/2 minutes.

*opens another tin and thinks about it*

Bobridge: +4'19" on a 55km TT

(assuming 51.3kph)

tailwindhome

http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=article&id=135