2024 Election thread
Comments
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wakemalcolm said:
Actually, there might be 3. There's the nose pickers, Salmond's expulsion overflow party and do the Greens not come out for independence?First.Aspect said:
There are two independence parties, ones just not very popular.wakemalcolm said:The SNP are a broad political church with many of their number willing to hold their noses on general policy to rally around the independence cause. A couple of decades ago when one of their main levers was: what could we do with the oil money? they were referred to as the Tartan Tories.
Once you've rowed back from believing that independence is the way, as she has, any direction a leaver subsequently takes wouldn't surprise me.
Given that we've got PR in Scotland, I'm surprised there's not more independence parties. Maybe that's down to Westminster not having PR.
Anyone believing independence is a good thing will realise that it has to be a united cause. If there were multiple parties with different visions of what an independent Scotland would look like, the pro UK parties would find it much easier to point out they can't all be right. This in turn would fuel doubt.
Instead all of these desperate visions are united under a facade of unity, which is now crumbling.
I think the case for independence would be stronger if there were people supporting it from a number of different political stand points.
I think that the appetite for it will fall even lower if Labour are more competent than the Tories (not hard) and don't treat Scotland like an annoyance. I big part of the appetite came from not wanting to be ruled by Tories in Westminster, I suspect.
It might also have opened eyes a bit by watching UK 'independence' turning into such a sh1tshow, and realising that it might be worth working with neighbours with whom you both share values and sometimes disagree.0 -
the case would be stronger if it made an iota of sense.wakemalcolm said:
Actually, there might be 3. There's the nose pickers, Salmond's expulsion overflow party and do the Greens not come out for independence?First.Aspect said:
There are two independence parties, ones just not very popular.wakemalcolm said:The SNP are a broad political church with many of their number willing to hold their noses on general policy to rally around the independence cause. A couple of decades ago when one of their main levers was: what could we do with the oil money? they were referred to as the Tartan Tories.
Once you've rowed back from believing that independence is the way, as she has, any direction a leaver subsequently takes wouldn't surprise me.
Given that we've got PR in Scotland, I'm surprised there's not more independence parties. Maybe that's down to Westminster not having PR.
Anyone believing independence is a good thing will realise that it has to be a united cause. If there were multiple parties with different visions of what an independent Scotland would look like, the pro UK parties would find it much easier to point out they can't all be right. This in turn would fuel doubt.
Instead all of these desperate visions are united under a facade of unity, which is now crumbling.
I think the case for independence would be stronger if there were people supporting it from a number of different political stand points.
In the meantime, all that can be done to make it make sense is put Scotland into the position economically of being able to be independent and be at least far far closer to meeting the requirements for EU membership.
Now it isn't because it spends £10 for every £9 it earns. This means it cannot join the EU. To join the EU would be incredibly painful and require cuts and taxation of levels not seen before. If it doesn't join the EU, the whole case for the referendum ceases to exist.
So right now, they want indyref2 because Scotland was forced out of a trading block it is not currently qualified to join. It is beyond absurd and a little honesty on this wouldn't go amis.
That honesty is either that it can only happen after a generation or two of extremely good governance and improved prosperity and public health here in Scotland and/or without the 2 or 3 generations of relatives poverty that the likes of Ireland had to pass through.
There is no cake, but people are being sold cake.
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Amen to that.First.Aspect said:
the case would be stronger if it made an iota of sense.wakemalcolm said:
Actually, there might be 3. There's the nose pickers, Salmond's expulsion overflow party and do the Greens not come out for independence?First.Aspect said:
There are two independence parties, ones just not very popular.wakemalcolm said:The SNP are a broad political church with many of their number willing to hold their noses on general policy to rally around the independence cause. A couple of decades ago when one of their main levers was: what could we do with the oil money? they were referred to as the Tartan Tories.
Once you've rowed back from believing that independence is the way, as she has, any direction a leaver subsequently takes wouldn't surprise me.
Given that we've got PR in Scotland, I'm surprised there's not more independence parties. Maybe that's down to Westminster not having PR.
Anyone believing independence is a good thing will realise that it has to be a united cause. If there were multiple parties with different visions of what an independent Scotland would look like, the pro UK parties would find it much easier to point out they can't all be right. This in turn would fuel doubt.
Instead all of these desperate visions are united under a facade of unity, which is now crumbling.
I think the case for independence would be stronger if there were people supporting it from a number of different political stand points.================================
Cake is just weakness entering the body1 -
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
So the SNP’s big election pledge is to freeze Council Tax. I didn’t hear anything about how they are going to support Councils in continuing to provide even their current level of service. There doesn’t seem much point in protecting people from the ‘cost of living crisis’ by forcing Councils to cut back on essential services so I assume there was something planned.1
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He pledged lots of spending (anout £1Bn) with no mention of how it would be funded. Pretty much normal service over the last decade.
There will be an extra penny on income tax, that is for sure.
They act like there's an endless supply of cake.0 -
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Tamworth has clearly been infiltrated by cake stop lefties.0
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“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.0 -
2045super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.1 -
That would surely be death by a thousand by elections!focuszing723 said:
2045super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.0 -
Did no-one telll them the Tories are going to reverse the war on motorists?
To be fair they did previously have a well respected, long serving and highly competent MP so maybe they previously voted for her rather than the Party
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Id like to think I'd put country first and do it early. Relinquish power is overstating their current position, they dont have any. They're such a divided party with no clear mandate and any policy announced will just have people waiting to see if Labour overturn it when they get it.
I can't seem them gaining much between now and next year, everything will still be a mess but a year older.
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Latest date it can be held is some time in January 2025, so he'll presumably not leave it until the very end, so as to avoid alienating the entire electorate by having a GE campaign over Christmas.super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.
I'm obviously not of the politician mindset, but in Sunak's shoes, I'd call it now and get it all over with. If UK politics was a boxing match then the ref would be stopping the fight this morning to save the Tories from further punishment.0 -
I would think that things will get worse over the next couple of years, as interest rate rises feed into disposable income, and job losses tick up. Current Middle East situation unlikely to help on inflation either given likely impact on oil prices. All we need now is a bitterly cold winter in Europe and for the Iranians to disrupt oil tanker movements in the Straits of Hormuz to leave us freezing to death due to not being able to afford gas that isn't actually available.joeyhalloran said:I can't seem them gaining much between now and next year, everything will still be a mess but a year older.
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Aim of the game is to be in power.wallace_and_gromit said:
Latest date it can be held is some time in January 2025, so he'll presumably not leave it until the very end, so as to avoid alienating the entire electorate by having a GE campaign over Christmas.super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.
I'm obviously not of the politician mindset, but in Sunak's shoes, I'd call it now and get it all over with. If UK politics was a boxing match then the ref would be stopping the fight this morning to save the Tories from further punishment.
He’ll call it as late as possible.0 -
Feels likely. Major and Brown hung on as long as they could. Tbh, in Sunak's shoes I'd resign so as to avoid what is going to be the most public of humiliations for him whenever the GE is held. The egos of politicians are way beyond my scale of comprehension, though.rick_chasey said:
Aim of the game is to be in power.wallace_and_gromit said:
Latest date it can be held is some time in January 2025, so he'll presumably not leave it until the very end, so as to avoid alienating the entire electorate by having a GE campaign over Christmas.super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.
I'm obviously not of the politician mindset, but in Sunak's shoes, I'd call it now and get it all over with. If UK politics was a boxing match then the ref would be stopping the fight this morning to save the Tories from further punishment.
He’ll call it as late as possible.0 -
It'll be interesting to see if the rest of the conservative party allow him to stay that long. If Liz Truss gathers enough loud nutters the maybe her "alternative" budget will carry more weight than previous preposterous "alternative"queen speeches etc from party's and their loon wings...
I feel like for Sunak, being PM is just another job title, rather than the Pinnacle of a long distinguished career as a public servant.0 -
Apparently the losses were because turnout was so low. I’m surprised they haven’t tried claiming Tamworth wasn’t a loss as the incumbent was an Independent not a Conservative.1
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Things can't get much worse, so why wouldn't they wait?rick_chasey said:
Aim of the game is to be in power.wallace_and_gromit said:
Latest date it can be held is some time in January 2025, so he'll presumably not leave it until the very end, so as to avoid alienating the entire electorate by having a GE campaign over Christmas.super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.
I'm obviously not of the politician mindset, but in Sunak's shoes, I'd call it now and get it all over with. If UK politics was a boxing match then the ref would be stopping the fight this morning to save the Tories from further punishment.
He’ll call it as late as possible.
The longer it goes, the more likely that Hunt will be able to conjure up a tax break for anyone owning more than £2M of property or something like that.
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This is even more reason to hold it early, the longer in to Labours term the shit is hitting the fan the better (from a Tory point of view)wallace_and_gromit said:
I would think that things will get worse over the next couple of years, as interest rate rises feed into disposable income, and job losses tick up. Current Middle East situation unlikely to help on inflation either given likely impact on oil prices. All we need now is a bitterly cold winter in Europe and for the Iranians to disrupt oil tanker movements in the Straits of Hormuz to leave us freezing to death due to not being able to afford gas that isn't actually available.joeyhalloran said:I can't seem them gaining much between now and next year, everything will still be a mess but a year older.
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Sunak has zero self-awareness and humility, he'll be hanging on for as long as possible whilst telling himself he can still turn it around.0
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The reporting on what the party is thinking etc is that they're holding out for inflation to drop.First.Aspect said:
Things can't get much worse, so why wouldn't they wait?rick_chasey said:
Aim of the game is to be in power.wallace_and_gromit said:
Latest date it can be held is some time in January 2025, so he'll presumably not leave it until the very end, so as to avoid alienating the entire electorate by having a GE campaign over Christmas.super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.
I'm obviously not of the politician mindset, but in Sunak's shoes, I'd call it now and get it all over with. If UK politics was a boxing match then the ref would be stopping the fight this morning to save the Tories from further punishment.
He’ll call it as late as possible.
The longer it goes, the more likely that Hunt will be able to conjure up a tax break for anyone owning more than £2M of property or something like that.
Latest figures won't have helped.0 -
Thank God Labour will be in soon, "WE ARE ARE SAVED!".
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"SAVED!"
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"Where is all the housing they promised?"
"Why is inflation so high?"
"Why isn't the economy growing?"
"Why is everyone striking?"
"Why hasn't the why been sorted yet?"2 -
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I think that's a forlorn hope tbh. Some economic metrics will potentially improve in the short term but once the electorate has decided "It's time for a change" then even a benign economic landscape (e.g. 1997) is no help for the government.rick_chasey said:
The reporting on what the party is thinking etc is that they're holding out for inflation to drop.First.Aspect said:
Things can't get much worse, so why wouldn't they wait?rick_chasey said:
Aim of the game is to be in power.wallace_and_gromit said:
Latest date it can be held is some time in January 2025, so he'll presumably not leave it until the very end, so as to avoid alienating the entire electorate by having a GE campaign over Christmas.super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.
I'm obviously not of the politician mindset, but in Sunak's shoes, I'd call it now and get it all over with. If UK politics was a boxing match then the ref would be stopping the fight this morning to save the Tories from further punishment.
He’ll call it as late as possible.
The longer it goes, the more likely that Hunt will be able to conjure up a tax break for anyone owning more than £2M of property or something like that.
Latest figures won't have helped.
Caveat - I am an accountant rather than a political pundit for a good reason!0 -
I also think they are holding out for interest rates to start go go back down and for the housing market to not be cataclysmic.rick_chasey said:
The reporting on what the party is thinking etc is that they're holding out for inflation to drop.First.Aspect said:
Things can't get much worse, so why wouldn't they wait?rick_chasey said:
Aim of the game is to be in power.wallace_and_gromit said:
Latest date it can be held is some time in January 2025, so he'll presumably not leave it until the very end, so as to avoid alienating the entire electorate by having a GE campaign over Christmas.super_davo said:If you were Sunak, when would you call the election?
It is pretty obvious they will lose, the question is by how much. Leave it right to the end and you're in a winter that will probably be very bleak for people. Hold it in the summer and you may get people in a better mood but you're relinquishing power 6 months early. On losing, he'll almost certainly be ousted as party leader too.
I'm obviously not of the politician mindset, but in Sunak's shoes, I'd call it now and get it all over with. If UK politics was a boxing match then the ref would be stopping the fight this morning to save the Tories from further punishment.
He’ll call it as late as possible.
The longer it goes, the more likely that Hunt will be able to conjure up a tax break for anyone owning more than £2M of property or something like that.
Latest figures won't have helped.
The latter makes next to no difference to people day to day, and interest rates aren't going to drop very much, but in my lifetime the "mood music" of rising house prices makes people feel better off (even though they aren't if they are living in the house). The Tories have historically ridden that wave quite well. Since this lot don't have a new thought between them, they will all be looking backwards for signs of hope.0 -
The longer they wait the longer they get their ministerial salaries for one thing. They may also hope that if they wait long enough Labour will do or say something stupid. After all, we’ve been warned on here that we are going to see how bad things can get if they take power so maybe they’ll let something slip.0
