Macroeconomics, the economy, inflation etc. *likely to be very dull*

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Comments

  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    This.

    The graph says far more about 1958 than what has happened since.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited July 2022
    morstar said:


    This.

    The graph says far more about 1958 than what has happened since.
    On a side note, I wonder how his surname came about?
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    @rick_chasey with debt servicing cost nudging £20bn a month are you still comfortable with debt levels?

    Whilst this is what I forecast I am staggered at how fast it is unraveling
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498

    @rick_chasey with debt servicing cost nudging £20bn a month are you still comfortable with debt levels?

    Whilst this is what I forecast I am staggered at how fast it is unraveling

    It really is. I agree with Sunak that the country needs to be put on a ‘crisis footing’ but am pretty certain it’s only a sound bite without any substance.

    We need a serious figure in the country to spell out how much trouble we’re in but also offer hope for the future.

    Don’t see anyone in the HoC’s capable of that unfortunately
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    @rick_chasey with debt servicing cost nudging £20bn a month are you still comfortable with debt levels?

    Whilst this is what I forecast I am staggered at how fast it is unraveling

    Depends on where growth is.

    If debt is growing faster than gdp we’re not in a good place.

    As ever the problem with debt isn’t the debt it’s the lack of growth.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151

    Ummm, no.

    The problem is not being prudent enough to factor in a historic average interest rates, in case the $h1t hit the fan.

    "Ahh, don't worry interest rates will be low for the foreseeable future".

    Well it turns out it isn't and it's pushing back to historic norms.

    It's throwing money away which could be used to fund services which we know are under pressure.

    It's akin to putting all your Spondulix on Pog to win the TDF.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    I bet you 20 billion* you wouldn't risk that yourself!

    *In the cake filled virtual world.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    That's half the problem it's all p1ss1ng around with other people's money with no responsibility, they will still be able to retire to Chipping Norton. Meanwhile the public services keep getting trashed and the message to the general public is debt is fine, again it won't be for some.

    You're on a good Salary Rick, but you drive a Polo. Why don't you get some credit and get a Ferrari (GT4Lusso, for the room)?

    Don't answer, because you know that would be fvck1ng stupid!!!
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    You know that is nonsensical so why write it.

    Being thrown off a ship in the middle of the ocean is fine so long as you can swim
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited July 2022
    And you don't know what the future holds next. Who predicted a financial crisis, brexit, covid, Putin, Vingegaard?

  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    I think sometimes Rick is blinded by the City lights n' swagger.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    You know that is nonsensical so why write it.

    Being thrown off a ship in the middle of the ocean is fine so long as you can swim
    Growth is the aim. All problems fade to noting with growth.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    I think sometimes Rick is blinded by the City lights n' swagger.

    If the Uk debt grows by 5% each year but the economy grows by 7% each year why is it a problem?
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151

    I think sometimes Rick is blinded by the City lights n' swagger.

    If the Uk debt grows by 5% each year but the economy grows by 7% each year why is it a problem?
    Get the Lusso then Rick and hope you can pay off the interest payments.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,607
    Gdp growth rate is remarkably steady over the long term. Somewhere between 2 and 3%.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    rjsterry said:

    Gdp growth rate is remarkably steady over the long term. Somewhere between 2 and 3%.

    Not over last 15 years
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    rjsterry said:

    Gdp growth rate is remarkably steady over the long term. Somewhere between 2 and 3%.

    Not over last 15 years
    Which surely weakens your argument even further?
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    A Ferrari goes quicker and is more swanky than a Polo, why don't you practice what you preach?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Pross said:

    rjsterry said:

    Gdp growth rate is remarkably steady over the long term. Somewhere between 2 and 3%.

    Not over last 15 years
    Which surely weakens your argument even further?
    What, that the problem is lack of growth?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    A Ferrari goes quicker and is more swanky than a Polo, why don't you practice what you preach?
    If I’m focused on becoming rich, then a Ferrari can be an option.

    If I focus on cost saving I’ll never have a Ferrari as I’ll only be able to afford a polo. Right?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,607

    rjsterry said:

    Gdp growth rate is remarkably steady over the long term. Somewhere between 2 and 3%.

    Not over last 15 years
    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate

    Not sure there is that much difference, really. More fluctuation in the '80s
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    A Ferrari goes quicker and is more swanky than a Polo, why don't you practice what you preach?
    If I’m focused on becoming rich, then a Ferrari can be an option.

    If I focus on cost saving I’ll never have a Ferrari as I’ll only be able to afford a polo. Right?
    Gawd, you've just kicked yourself in the b0ll0cks with that. So you don't get into debt yourself, but you want others too?

    Top of the pyramid stuff.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,607

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    A Ferrari goes quicker and is more swanky than a Polo, why don't you practice what you preach?
    If I’m focused on becoming rich, then a Ferrari can be an option.

    If I focus on cost saving I’ll never have a Ferrari as I’ll only be able to afford a polo. Right?
    Gawd, you've just kicked yourself in the b0ll0cks with that. So you don't get into debt yourself, but you want others too?

    Top of the pyramid stuff.
    Please stop muddling government borrowing with personal debt. They are not the same thing at all.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    Pross said:

    rjsterry said:

    Gdp growth rate is remarkably steady over the long term. Somewhere between 2 and 3%.

    Not over last 15 years
    Which surely weakens your argument even further?
    What, that the problem is lack of growth?
    That we should be borrowing at a time when growth isn't keeping up with likely interest rates.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    rjsterry said:

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    A Ferrari goes quicker and is more swanky than a Polo, why don't you practice what you preach?
    If I’m focused on becoming rich, then a Ferrari can be an option.

    If I focus on cost saving I’ll never have a Ferrari as I’ll only be able to afford a polo. Right?
    Gawd, you've just kicked yourself in the b0ll0cks with that. So you don't get into debt yourself, but you want others too?

    Top of the pyramid stuff.
    Please stop muddling government borrowing with personal debt. They are not the same thing at all.
    Please stop forgetting the example it sets.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    I think sometimes Rick is blinded by the City lights n' swagger.

    If the Uk debt grows by 5% each year but the economy grows by 7% each year why is it a problem?
    Yep 5% would pay the interest but you are just plucking numbers out of the air. When was growth 5% let alone 7%?

    Pre Covid Budget was 3%, when did we have growth that high?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    rjsterry said:

    rjsterry said:

    Gdp growth rate is remarkably steady over the long term. Somewhere between 2 and 3%.

    Not over last 15 years
    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate

    Not sure there is that much difference, really. More fluctuation in the '80s
    Per head however https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    rjsterry said:

    Doesn’t matter if you’re growing faster

    A Ferrari goes quicker and is more swanky than a Polo, why don't you practice what you preach?
    If I’m focused on becoming rich, then a Ferrari can be an option.

    If I focus on cost saving I’ll never have a Ferrari as I’ll only be able to afford a polo. Right?
    Gawd, you've just kicked yourself in the b0ll0cks with that. So you don't get into debt yourself, but you want others too?

    Top of the pyramid stuff.
    Please stop muddling government borrowing with personal debt. They are not the same thing at all.
    If interest rates are low it encourages people to take on debt rather than save, isn't that obvious!?