Unpopular Pro Race Opinions

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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    blazing_saddles said:

    DeadCalm said:

    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    Mathieu van der Poel is a flat track bully on the road and his road palmares when he retires will be nothing exceptional.

    Haha, if he retired tomorrow it'd be exceptional. Multiple WT wins, one day wins, multiple National champs wins on top of his cross and MTB make it exceptional. He was one win away from being European champion in XC, MTB and road. This isn't unpopular, it's just nonsense.
    Read my post again. I'm talking only about the road. To be considered exceptional on the road he needs to do way better than Amstel Gold and Dwars door Vlaanderen plus a bunch of chippers.
    He's been little more than average so far this season.
    Just a win on the flat in Tirreno and the Dutch champs.
    Van Aert has been in a different league on the road.
    He hasn't been the same rider since his legs fell off in Harrogate.

    I have read he's super structured in the way he approaches racing and he's lost a bit of direction in corona.

    I sort of wonder if in the future we'll see 2020 as some kind of aberration year, where the really exceptional performances are as much to do with lucking out on the right prep.

    _
  • dish_dash
    dish_dash Posts: 5,647
    ^ Agree with this.

    Clear that there is a split between the riders who have timed their training through COVID to come out blazing, and those that didn't. For example, I know he's 40 and all, but surprised how off the boil Valverde is for instance, and I suspect its because he's used to training outdoors and didn't take to indoor training.

    Worth remembering that WVA didn't race again in 2019 after smashing himself up at the TdF. So he's likely been on a structured recovery plan, which will have meant more focused training programme even through COVID (including indoor training) which has borne fruit.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,691
    For comparison's sake, I think we should restrict this to one day races and stages, unless we're considering MvdP a stage race GC contender now?

    Ranking could be weighted something like
    Monuments & Worlds wins
    WT one-dayers & TdF stages
    Category HC one-dayers and other GT stages
    WT non-GT stages
    Category 1 one-dayers

    That's fairly similar to UCI points system, though obviously with only wins counted

    I expect someone with sufficient statto status could sort this out.... @RichN95. ;-)

    I'd expect Valverde, Gilbert, Cavendish and Sagan to rank fairly highly.
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  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,486
    I always personally find "sprint stages" to be less valuable than other stages. because the difficulty is simply smaller. That would need to be weighted in more. It's much harder to make the decisive split and then have the legs in a classic and even in some chippers than to follow the lead out to victory.
    However only, if you have the physiology and talent to compete for the win in the first place. Obviously it's not exactly the same, since we don't see Terpstra finishing off bunch sprints regularly.

    Riders who have a huge amount of wins are often sprinters or hybrid sprinters like Sagan. I would personally rank an Amstel Gold win or a Strade Bianche win or a Classica San Sebastian win higher than a Tour sprint stage.
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,823
    There's a thread on this forum to rank the chipperness of races

    https://forum.bikeradar.com/discussion/12911497/chippers-a-reminder
  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,486
    That is pretty good, but Strade Bianche needs to move up to LBL.
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,730
    Here's another one that's going to be unpopular in the Netherlands.

    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,262
    No_Ta_Doctor said:


    Ranking could be weighted something like
    Monuments & Worlds wins
    WT one-dayers & TdF stages
    Category HC one-dayers and other GT stages


    If you're comparing the top guys, these are all that count, and I'd probably exclude all but a couple of HC races. And until you win one of the top row races, you are not in the conversation.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,717
    This d1ckhead knows what he tweeting about ( 😘 ). How do we account for team work?

    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,249
    Pross said:

    DeadCalm said:

    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    Mathieu van der Poel is a flat track bully on the road and his road palmares when he retires will be nothing exceptional.

    Haha, if he retired tomorrow it'd be exceptional. Multiple WT wins, one day wins, multiple National champs wins on top of his cross and MTB make it exceptional. He was one win away from being European champion in XC, MTB and road. This isn't unpopular, it's just nonsense.
    Read my post again. I'm talking only about the road. To be considered exceptional on the road he needs to do way better than Amstel Gold and Dwars door Vlaanderen plus a bunch of chippers.
    Who do you count as having an exceptional palmares?
    Of current riders, Gilbert.
    Valverde? Sagan? Froome? Nibali? Kwia hasn't done too badly either.
    Kwiatkowski has had a great career but I'd dispute that he has an exceptional palmares. The others you listed all do but I was going for an example of a rider who would be pursuing similar races to MVDP. Sagan, for sure I could have included.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,262
    DeadCalm said:



    Kwiatkowski has had a great career but I'd dispute that he has an exceptional palmares. The others you listed all do but I was going for an example of a rider who would be pursuing similar races to MVDP. Sagan, for sure I could have included.

    You can count on one hand the current riders with more WT level one day victories than him. A couple of WT stage races in there too.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • 50x11
    50x11 Posts: 408
    DeadCalm said:

    Pross said:

    DeadCalm said:

    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    Mathieu van der Poel is a flat track bully on the road and his road palmares when he retires will be nothing exceptional.

    Haha, if he retired tomorrow it'd be exceptional. Multiple WT wins, one day wins, multiple National champs wins on top of his cross and MTB make it exceptional. He was one win away from being European champion in XC, MTB and road. This isn't unpopular, it's just nonsense.
    Read my post again. I'm talking only about the road. To be considered exceptional on the road he needs to do way better than Amstel Gold and Dwars door Vlaanderen plus a bunch of chippers.
    Who do you count as having an exceptional palmares?
    Of current riders, Gilbert.
    Valverde? Sagan? Froome? Nibali? Kwia hasn't done too badly either.
    Kwiatkowski has had a great career but I'd dispute that he has an exceptional palmares. The others you listed all do but I was going for an example of a rider who would be pursuing similar races to MVDP. Sagan, for sure I could have included.
    So what to the monument, one day races, world championship, national championship, WT stage races, and now a tour stage does he need to add to have an exceptional palmares.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    RichN95. said:

    DeadCalm said:



    Kwiatkowski has had a great career but I'd dispute that he has an exceptional palmares. The others you listed all do but I was going for an example of a rider who would be pursuing similar races to MVDP. Sagan, for sure I could have included.

    You can count on one hand the current riders with more WT level one day victories than him. A couple of WT stage races in there too.
    Do you think he would have won more or less had he stayed at QS?
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    I imagine I am in the minority here, but I can't get enough of old vids of mental dope enabled rides.

    The speed and the gears, hubba hubba.
    _
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,444
    m.r.m. said:

    I always personally find "sprint stages" to be less valuable than other stages. because the difficulty is simply smaller. That would need to be weighted in more. It's much harder to make the decisive split and then have the legs in a classic and even in some chippers than to follow the lead out to victory.
    However only, if you have the physiology and talent to compete for the win in the first place. Obviously it's not exactly the same, since we don't see Terpstra finishing off bunch sprints regularly.

    Riders who have a huge amount of wins are often sprinters or hybrid sprinters like Sagan. I would personally rank an Amstel Gold win or a Strade Bianche win or a Classica San Sebastian win higher than a Tour sprint stage.

    I don't know about this. There's plenty of Tour stages or other GT stages which are won by someone from fairly middling calibre breaks just because for whatever reason the GC teams decided that day to let them get a 15 minute advantage.

    And then some GT sprint stages which are won by surprise (that Postelberger Giro win springs to mind).

    Not really sure the ability is less to win a sprint stage either, it's just a different skillset. To win in Paris they have to get over the Alps, Pyrenees etc first and then be able to do 1600 watts in the sprint - and be tactically savvy enough to be on the right wheel at the right time. Sprinting isn't easy.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,262
    rick_chasey said:

    RichN95. said:

    DeadCalm said:



    Kwiatkowski has had a great career but I'd dispute that he has an exceptional palmares. The others you listed all do but I was going for an example of a rider who would be pursuing similar races to MVDP. Sagan, for sure I could have included.

    You can count on one hand the current riders with more WT level one day victories than him. A couple of WT stage races in there too.
    Do you think he would have won more or less had he stayed at QS?

    It's impossible to tell. In the races he's won, Quick Step have a similar success rate as he does.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024
    rick_chasey said:

    I imagine I am in the minority here, but I can't get enough of old vids of mental dope enabled rides.

    The speed and the gears, hubba hubba.

    Pantani was certainly entertaining, but he came after the Indurain days which were boring, so I'm not sure the doping always helps. I miss the whole attacking at the beginning of the climb thing though.
  • craigus89
    craigus89 Posts: 887
    Any team that usually wears yellow jerseys, or yellow as the main colour i.e Jumbo, should have to wear an alternate colour team kit for the TDF, so that there is only one yellow jersey in the peleton that really stands out.

    I fell like the TDF and yellow jersey is iconic enough for that to be a thing.
  • salsiccia1
    salsiccia1 Posts: 3,725
    craigus89 said:

    Any team that usually wears yellow jerseys, or yellow as the main colour i.e Jumbo, should have to wear an alternate colour team kit for the TDF, so that there is only one yellow jersey in the peleton that really stands out.

    I fell like the TDF and yellow jersey is iconic enough for that to be a thing.

    That's not unpopular with me. However if you're Jumbo Supermarkets you don't want your brand identity watered down in the biggest shop window.
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • Lanterne_Rogue
    Lanterne_Rogue Posts: 4,340
    m.r.m. said:

    I always personally find "sprint stages" to be less valuable than other stages [...] it's much harder to make the decisive split

    The decisive moment for a sprint stage can come in the last 10m, its success or failure is sometimes measured in millimetres, and the decisions that win or lose the race are taken in milliseconds when the body and mind are at their most fatigued.

    But yeah, otherwise totally simple...

    My unpopular pro-race opinion is that people who dislike flat stages just aren't watching properly ;-)
    Twitter: @canocola @thedreadships
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,444
    salsiccia1 said:

    craigus89 said:

    Any team that usually wears yellow jerseys, or yellow as the main colour i.e Jumbo, should have to wear an alternate colour team kit for the TDF, so that there is only one yellow jersey in the peleton that really stands out.

    I fell like the TDF and yellow jersey is iconic enough for that to be a thing.

    That's not unpopular with me. However if you're Jumbo Supermarkets you don't want your brand identity watered down in the biggest shop window.
    They will have a corporate colour palate, I think they could have found something which works.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,691
    RichN95. said:

    No_Ta_Doctor said:


    Ranking could be weighted something like
    Monuments & Worlds wins
    WT one-dayers & TdF stages
    Category HC one-dayers and other GT stages


    If you're comparing the top guys, these are all that count, and I'd probably exclude all but a couple of HC races. And until you win one of the top row races, you are not in the conversation.
    I mainly included the HC one dayers as some move up and down the rankings a bit. Fair comment on cut-off, and on needing a top row to be worth a mention - though maybe e.g. The sprint in Paris "the world champs for sprinters" should also count there? Green Jersey should probably carry some weight as well
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  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,486
    bobmcstuff said:

    m.r.m. said:

    I always personally find "sprint stages" to be less valuable than other stages. because the difficulty is simply smaller. That would need to be weighted in more. It's much harder to make the decisive split and then have the legs in a classic and even in some chippers than to follow the lead out to victory.
    However only, if you have the physiology and talent to compete for the win in the first place. Obviously it's not exactly the same, since we don't see Terpstra finishing off bunch sprints regularly.

    Riders who have a huge amount of wins are often sprinters or hybrid sprinters like Sagan. I would personally rank an Amstel Gold win or a Strade Bianche win or a Classica San Sebastian win higher than a Tour sprint stage.

    I don't know about this. There's plenty of Tour stages or other GT stages which are won by someone from fairly middling calibre breaks just because for whatever reason the GC teams decided that day to let them get a 15 minute advantage.

    And then some GT sprint stages which are won by surprise (that Postelberger Giro win springs to mind).

    Not really sure the ability is less to win a sprint stage either, it's just a different skillset. To win in Paris they have to get over the Alps, Pyrenees etc first and then be able to do 1600 watts in the sprint - and be tactically savvy enough to be on the right wheel at the right time. Sprinting isn't easy.
    I agree with you. The point I was trying to make is, all wins are not created equal. So how do you allocate a numeric value to quantify each one/type specifically?
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,486
    edited September 2020
    Lanterne_Rogue said:

    m.r.m. said:

    I always personally find "sprint stages" to be less valuable than other stages [...] it's much harder to make the decisive split

    The decisive moment for a sprint stage can come in the last 10m, its success or failure is sometimes measured in millimetres, and the decisions that win or lose the race are taken in milliseconds when the body and mind are at their most fatigued.

    But yeah, otherwise totally simple...

    My unpopular pro-race opinion is that people who dislike flat stages just aren't watching properly ;-)
    Then why do good sprinters have so many more wins numerically than good classics riders? I'm not saying sprinting is easy. I didn't. I made the specific point that it isn't in the Terpstra example.

    If you simply count wins, pure sprinters will always have more wins. So, you need some type of weighting in value of the wins to give a meaningful statistical comparison.
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • takethehighroad
    takethehighroad Posts: 6,823
    Not sure how popular or otherwise this will be, but I don't think Brian Smith is the tactical genius he's made out to be.

    I've just rewatched last year's WC and he said Pedersen was "riding for a medal", one amongst a few faux pas he's made recently.

    Another one was early in the stage last week when they got the 1-2, that the Ineos duo should have waited for the rest of the break as they were "using energy uneccesarily"
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,249
    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    Pross said:

    DeadCalm said:

    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    50x11 said:

    DeadCalm said:

    Mathieu van der Poel is a flat track bully on the road and his road palmares when he retires will be nothing exceptional.

    Haha, if he retired tomorrow it'd be exceptional. Multiple WT wins, one day wins, multiple National champs wins on top of his cross and MTB make it exceptional. He was one win away from being European champion in XC, MTB and road. This isn't unpopular, it's just nonsense.
    Read my post again. I'm talking only about the road. To be considered exceptional on the road he needs to do way better than Amstel Gold and Dwars door Vlaanderen plus a bunch of chippers.
    Who do you count as having an exceptional palmares?
    Of current riders, Gilbert.
    Valverde? Sagan? Froome? Nibali? Kwia hasn't done too badly either.
    Kwiatkowski has had a great career but I'd dispute that he has an exceptional palmares. The others you listed all do but I was going for an example of a rider who would be pursuing similar races to MVDP. Sagan, for sure I could have included.
    So what to the monument, one day races, world championship, national championship, WT stage races, and now a tour stage does he need to add to have an exceptional palmares.
    As I see it, that puts him a little ahead of Fuglsang, roughly on a par with Alaphillipe and way behind Sagan and Gilbert. What he has achieved is very, very good but to be described as exceptional, he is at least a couple of monuments short IMO.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,691
    m.r.m. said:

    Lanterne_Rogue said:

    m.r.m. said:

    I always personally find "sprint stages" to be less valuable than other stages [...] it's much harder to make the decisive split

    The decisive moment for a sprint stage can come in the last 10m, its success or failure is sometimes measured in millimetres, and the decisions that win or lose the race are taken in milliseconds when the body and mind are at their most fatigued.

    But yeah, otherwise totally simple...

    My unpopular pro-race opinion is that people who dislike flat stages just aren't watching properly ;-)
    Then why do good sprinters have so many more wins numerically than good classics riders? I'm not saying sprinting is easy. I didn't. I made the specific point that it isn't in the Terpstra example.

    If you simply count wins, pure sprinters will always have more wins. So, you need some type of weighting in value of the wins to give a meaningful statistical comparison.
    Most of those wins are stage wins, and if they're outside a GT we've removed them from the count now. There aren't that many one day sprint races. Even MSR isn't won by sprinters often now
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  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,486
    Oh sorry, all of it wasn't directed at you or anyone specifically. I'm just arguing it in general terms, because it kind of came up while riders were being compared. I think the best way to do it is to assign wins a numeric value and then riders get a score depending on their wins. That would at least give a basis for discussion in comparison to the eye test. I don't think analytics can ever entirely replace actually watching the races.

    I'm not able to grade all the types of wins well though.
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,691
    m.r.m. said:

    Oh sorry, all of it wasn't directed at you or anyone specifically. I'm just arguing it in general terms, because it kind of came up while riders were being compared. I think the best way to do it is to assign wins a numeric value and then riders get a score depending on their wins. That would at least give a basis for discussion in comparison to the eye test. I don't think analytics can ever entirely replace actually watching the races.

    I'm not able to grade all the types of wins well though.

    No worries, I didn't take that personally at all.

    As for assigning a numeric value, I was letting @RichN95. do that - and prepare a spreadsheet ;-)

    The qualifying races, in tiers, would be:

    Monuments & Worlds wins
    WT one-dayers & TdF stages
    Category HC one-dayers and other GT stages

    Points could be 5, 3, 1, for instance.
    As the bulk of sprint wins would come in TdF (3 points) or other GT (1 pt) I think that's fairish on the value of sprint wins. I also don't want to have to tell Cav that his MSR and Rainbows are worth less than other's monuments and Rainbows because he sprinted to them :D

    Dress code: a monument or World Championship or you're not getting in.
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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,024
    takethehighroad said:

    Not sure how popular or otherwise this will be, but I don't think Brian Smith is the tactical genius he's made out to be.

    I've just rewatched last year's WC and he said Pedersen was "riding for a medal", one amongst a few faux pas he's made recently.

    Another one was early in the stage last week when they got the 1-2, that the Ineos duo should have waited for the rest of the break as they were "using energy uneccesarily"

    He also said that the Ineos pair would sprint it out and ignore team orders.

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