The big Coronavirus thread

nickice

I understand the idea behind it, but I was avoiding crowds before the lock down and I guess there will be quite a lot of people like me who'll avoid places like cinemas,restaurants, bars, concerts etc. until we can be relatively sure it's all over. I think it's unrealistic to expect life to go back to normal until another wave hits.

morstar

But what you are saying is probably the best scenario.
Business can re-start at least but (voluntary) much lower activity levels will limit the speed of the 2nd wave.
There are only three options. Do nothing, await a cure or manage the passage of the virus.
All of them trade off economic hit against mortality. But they all have bad economic consequences, the global and domestic economy of 3 months ago is consigned to history for at least the short term.
The self managing you describe is arguably the best pathway (of a bad bunch).
Nobody wants to rush to get this disease but at some point things have to resume to some degree.

jp1970

surrey_commuter said:

jp1970 said:

rick_chasey said:

THAT IS UNACCEPTABLE.

ALL THIS EFFORT ON BREXIT WHEN THE U.K. HAS 5x FEWER INTENSIVE CARE BEDS THAN GERMANY

No doubt the morons will be here to defend this. How was this not a scandal sooner?

FWIW, and I don’t normally say this, my experience of the NHS has been constantly sh!t and it blows my mind people are “proud of it”. Presumably the only ever think about the US by comparison.

Rick
People are proud of the NHS at this dire time... do you want a health system like Mr Trump's !

As a proud member of the NHS staff I'm really offended with your statement.... if anyone of your family or friends does urgent require assistance of the NHS during this crisis (or any other time) . I hope it does change your thoughts on the NHS.. or if you feel so strongly don't use the service !!!.
PS .. I work in a back office function (IT).. we'll shortly be deploying 1000 laptops / webcam to enable GP and practice staff to work from home and provide a virtual consultation service. This kit isn't going to magically configure and deployment themselves ... the censored NHS is gonna have to do this work.


#staysafestayathome

Meanwhile my GP surgery wants me to send a fax to re up a prescription. With the science museum closed how am I meant to do that.

The NHS is the world’s biggest buyer of fax machines.

Sign up to the online service offered by your GP practice... The practice website should have details on how to sign up .. then download the relevant app (Patient Access or SystmOnline.. depending on what GP clinical system your practice use).

DeVlaeminck

I think the ideal is that our interventions prevent a second peak and so once out of lock down (or whatever we call the current situation) we don't have to go back into it but rather can gradually relax restrictions or at least if we do have to reverse then only in a minor way.

The problem with reimposing lock down would be the uncertainty - lots of activities can't really restart if they are expecting they'll have to stop again. Sports leagues, some building projects etc. What happens to schools and universities if you don't know if your A levels or final exams will take place? . Would you book a holiday or plan a festival if there is a likelihood it wont happen? I'd almost rather see a more gradual relaxation than they might think they could risk than an on and off strategy.

On another note a mate of a mate - very good amateur/semi pro cyclist in his mid 20s - posted on facebook how he'd been in hospital on oxygen and felt at the time like he was dying. Does bring it home when you see a young fit guy from the same sport a lot of us have or do take part in saying he really felt his time might be up.

nickice

Interesting article in the spectator regarding how deaths are measured
.https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-
He isn't, however, considering how many people will need to be hospitalised.

morstar

DeVlaeminck said:

I think the ideal is that our interventions prevent a second peak and so once out of lock down (or whatever we call the current situation) we don't have to go back into it but rather can gradually relax restrictions or at least if we do have to reverse then only in a minor way.

The problem with reimposing lock down would be the uncertainty - lots of activities can't really restart if they are expecting they'll have to stop again. Sports leagues, some building projects etc. What happens to schools and universities if you don't know if your A levels or final exams will take place? . Would you book a holiday or plan a festival if there is a likelihood it wont happen? I'd almost rather see a more gradual relaxation than they might think they could risk than an on and off strategy.

On another note a mate of a mate - very good amateur/semi pro cyclist in his mid 20s - posted on facebook how he'd been in hospital on oxygen and felt at the time like he was dying. Does bring it home when you see a young fit guy from the same sport a lot of us have or do take part in saying he really felt his time might be up.

Definitely scary. But there is an argument that elite endurance athletes do have compromised immune systems.
This is the sort of thing I tell myself as it is bl@@dy scary that young and fit is no guarantee of an easy passage.

nickice

morstar said:

But what you are saying is probably the best scenario.
Business can re-start at least but (voluntary) much lower activity levels will limit the speed of the 2nd wave.
There are only three options. Do nothing, await a cure or manage the passage of the virus.
All of them trade off economic hit against mortality. But they all have bad economic consequences, the global and domestic economy of 3 months ago is consigned to history for at least the short term.
The self managing you describe is arguably the best pathway (of a bad bunch).
Nobody wants to rush to get this disease but at some point things have to resume to some degree.

I understand but I also think it's quite unrealistic. I'm just praying that when they do antibody tests, it turns out a lot more people have had it than we realise. There was a British/Israeli biophysicist claiming that most people are actually naturally immune to it though he was basing it on the fact that most people on the Diamond Princess cruise ship didn't actually get it (I know they were under quarantine for a time but apparently, it wasn't set up very well). Other than that, I don't really think he has any evidence. I doubt that most people are immune but there are always a certain number of people who are immune to viruses (up to 10% for HIV in Europe if I recall)

coopster_the_1st

DeVlaeminck said:

On another note a mate of a mate - very good amateur/semi pro cyclist in his mid 20s - posted on facebook how he'd been in hospital on oxygen and felt at the time like he was dying. Does bring it home when you see a young fit guy from the same sport a lot of us have or do take part in saying he really felt his time might be up.

That's not good.

Do you have any idea on whether he did hard cycling efforts in the 5 days before the symptoms started to show?

nickice

I had a lot of the symptoms in early-to-mid February. If it had been a month later, I'd be convinced I'd had it. It was strange because it came on gradually from Wednesday not suddenly (like the flu) then I was saying on the Saturday I'd be back at work on Monday before developing a a fever and chills that night. It left me exhausted after walking up my stairs and I developed a dry cough which I put down to it going into my sinuses. It also didn't seem infect my wife or children which really surprised me.

It probably was the flu but I do wonder given that it has been apparently circulating since January.

briantrumpet

Marco Rubio tried the "the media can't contain their glee" tosh on Twitter, and, let's say, it didn't go down too well.

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1244279416819273729

Stevo_666

morstar said:

But what you are saying is probably the best scenario.
Business can re-start at least but (voluntary) much lower activity levels will limit the speed of the 2nd wave.
There are only three options. Do nothing, await a cure or manage the passage of the virus.
All of them trade off economic hit against mortality. But they all have bad economic consequences, the global and domestic economy of 3 months ago is consigned to history for at least the short term.
The self managing you describe is arguably the best pathway (of a bad bunch).
Nobody wants to rush to get this disease but at some point things have to resume to some degree.

Overall agree, though I'm not sure how any country will manage the 'Okey Cokey' lock down and relaxation repeats that would be needed to manage it.

coopster_the_1st

Stevo_666 said:

morstar said:

But what you are saying is probably the best scenario.
Business can re-start at least but (voluntary) much lower activity levels will limit the speed of the 2nd wave.
There are only three options. Do nothing, await a cure or manage the passage of the virus.
All of them trade off economic hit against mortality. But they all have bad economic consequences, the global and domestic economy of 3 months ago is consigned to history for at least the short term.
The self managing you describe is arguably the best pathway (of a bad bunch).
Nobody wants to rush to get this disease but at some point things have to resume to some degree.

Overall agree, though I'm not sure how any country will manage the 'Okey Cokey' lock down and relaxation repeats that would be needed to manage it.

Our government are fortunate to be 2 and 3 weeks behind Spain and Italy respectively so human behaviour can be learnt from them.

However I think there will be mass disobedience in the UK when we get our first couple of t-shirt weather days, particularly if they have been preceded by days like this weekend. I don't think a 3 month shutdown on the severity we have now can hold out until the end of June.

Stevo_666

coopster_the_1st said:

Stevo_666 said:

morstar said:

But what you are saying is probably the best scenario.
Business can re-start at least but (voluntary) much lower activity levels will limit the speed of the 2nd wave.
There are only three options. Do nothing, await a cure or manage the passage of the virus.
All of them trade off economic hit against mortality. But they all have bad economic consequences, the global and domestic economy of 3 months ago is consigned to history for at least the short term.
The self managing you describe is arguably the best pathway (of a bad bunch).
Nobody wants to rush to get this disease but at some point things have to resume to some degree.

Overall agree, though I'm not sure how any country will manage the 'Okey Cokey' lock down and relaxation repeats that would be needed to manage it.

Our government are fortunate to be 2 and 3 weeks behind Spain and Italy respectively so human behaviour can be learnt from them.

However I think there will be mass disobedience in the UK when we get our first couple of t-shirt weather days, particularly if they have been preceded by days like this weekend. I don't think a 3 month shutdown on the severity we have now can hold out until the end of June.

Clearly there will be a limit to how long many people will tolerate being locked down and governments cannot ignore that (possibly with a few exceptions such as China).

Stevo_666

A historical perspective on pandemics:



Link here:
https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D22AQE9I4Rr-X3HJQ/feedshare-shrink_800/0?e=1588204800&v=beta&t=ATnJGI2Cxq1uaa3QrIwVR6AeGqVk4xVtmkcBTHRMKB0

ballysmate

coopster_the_1st said:

Stevo_666 said:

morstar said:

But what you are saying is probably the best scenario.
Business can re-start at least but (voluntary) much lower activity levels will limit the speed of the 2nd wave.
There are only three options. Do nothing, await a cure or manage the passage of the virus.
All of them trade off economic hit against mortality. But they all have bad economic consequences, the global and domestic economy of 3 months ago is consigned to history for at least the short term.
The self managing you describe is arguably the best pathway (of a bad bunch).
Nobody wants to rush to get this disease but at some point things have to resume to some degree.

Overall agree, though I'm not sure how any country will manage the 'Okey Cokey' lock down and relaxation repeats that would be needed to manage it.

Our government are fortunate to be 2 and 3 weeks behind Spain and Italy respectively so human behaviour can be learnt from them.

However I think there will be mass disobedience in the UK when we get our first couple of t-shirt weather days, particularly if they have been preceded by days like this weekend. I don't think a 3 month shutdown on the severity we have now can hold out until the end of June.

That is why any lock down was not implemented weeks before it was, much to the annoyance of some on here.
No point announcing measures you have no hope of enforcing.

pblakeney

I'm already getting it in the ear from an oldie moaning about measures put in place specifically to protect the oldies.
How long can we tolerate a lockdown? About a week apparently.
As said it will be complete chaos the first few really nice days.

ballysmate

pblakeney said:

I'm already getting it in the ear from an oldie moaning about measures put in place specifically to protect the oldies.
How long can we tolerate a lockdown? About a week apparently.
As said it will be complete chaos the first few really nice days.

Got to get away from the idea that it is a virus that only attacks oldies.

shortfall

nickice said:

Interesting article in the spectator regarding how deaths are measured
.https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-
He isn't, however, considering how many people will need to be hospitalised.

"Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘Covid deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by Covid-19"

This is the subtle but important distinction I mentioned upthread.

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

I'm already getting it in the ear from an oldie moaning about measures put in place specifically to protect the oldies.
How long can we tolerate a lockdown? About a week apparently.
As said it will be complete chaos the first few really nice days.

All they need to do is grant the BBC access to a ICU and a makeshift mortuary and you would not be able to pay people to go out.

Aren’t we on about Boris level 4, there is at least another level to go and no reason why we could not go back the other way.

1. Wash your hand for 20 seconds and don’t shake hands
2. Advised not to go to pub
3. WFH
4. Pub shut down
5. No more than 1km from house

surrey_commuter

Infection rates in groups of people still working seem to be running at 30%, if so death rate is negligible and we will soon have herd immunity.

Health warning is that these infection rates are based on people not turning up to work

pblakeney

ballysmate said:

pblakeney said:

I'm already getting it in the ear from an oldie moaning about measures put in place specifically to protect the oldies.
How long can we tolerate a lockdown? About a week apparently.
As said it will be complete chaos the first few really nice days.

Got to get away from the idea that it is a virus that only attacks oldies.

That wasn't my point. My point is that he can tolerate the restrictions for no longer.
He basically agrees with Shortfall.

As an example, here is a direct quote - "The coronavirus panic reminds of the fable The Emperors new clothes for some reason."

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

I'm already getting it in the ear from an oldie moaning about measures put in place specifically to protect the oldies.
How long can we tolerate a lockdown? About a week apparently.
As said it will be complete chaos the first few really nice days.

All they need to do is grant the BBC access to a ICU and a makeshift mortuary and you would not be able to pay people to go out.

Aren’t we on about Boris level 4, there is at least another level to go and no reason why we could not go back the other way.

1. Wash your hand for 20 seconds and don’t shake hands
2. Advised not to go to pub
3. WFH
4. Pub shut down
5. No more than 1km from house

100% agree. And posted that this was the plan a couple of weeks ago.

tailwindhome

Perversely the more effective the lock down is in reducing deaths, the more difficult it will be to maintain.

pblakeney

Interestingly enough (for me anyway) here is my post from 10/03/2020.

pblakeney said:

My guess is that they want a complete lockdown but realise that it is unenforceable.
And costly.

nickice

shortfall said:

nickice said:

Interesting article in the spectator regarding how deaths are measured
.https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-
He isn't, however, considering how many people will need to be hospitalised.

"Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘Covid deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by Covid-19"

This is the subtle but important distinction I mentioned upthread.

But he isn't talking about hospitalisations overwhelming the NHS which I think is the real problem. If you die despite best efforts and equipment that's one thing, but if you die because if equipment shortages, that's quite another.

briantrumpet

tailwindhome said:

Perversely the more effective the lock down is in reducing deaths, the more difficult it will be to maintain.

I think that the relaxation, when it comes, will be the hardest part of the process... how to do it without everyone going nuts.

nickice

ballysmate said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Stevo_666 said:

morstar said:

But what you are saying is probably the best scenario.
Business can re-start at least but (voluntary) much lower activity levels will limit the speed of the 2nd wave.
There are only three options. Do nothing, await a cure or manage the passage of the virus.
All of them trade off economic hit against mortality. But they all have bad economic consequences, the global and domestic economy of 3 months ago is consigned to history for at least the short term.
The self managing you describe is arguably the best pathway (of a bad bunch).
Nobody wants to rush to get this disease but at some point things have to resume to some degree.

Overall agree, though I'm not sure how any country will manage the 'Okey Cokey' lock down and relaxation repeats that would be needed to manage it.

Our government are fortunate to be 2 and 3 weeks behind Spain and Italy respectively so human behaviour can be learnt from them.

However I think there will be mass disobedience in the UK when we get our first couple of t-shirt weather days, particularly if they have been preceded by days like this weekend. I don't think a 3 month shutdown on the severity we have now can hold out until the end of June.

That is why any lock down was not implemented weeks before it was, much to the annoyance of some on here.
No point announcing measures you have no hope of enforcing.

The only way to enforce them would be to become an authoritarian state like China. France is increasing the fines and they are massive for 2nd and 3rd 'offences'. They need to understand that you have to have the public on your side and that top-down measures designed for big cities can't work in other places. I'm about a week away from just going cycling along the canal next to me that's been closed off because I see no good reason not to. I'm all ears for the Government to give reasons...

morstar

surrey_commuter said:

Health warning is that these infection rates are based on people not turning up to work

Yes, there's a substantial assumption. With schools closed, some people considering themselves at risk, genuine sickness and a ready made sickie excuse, a lot of the non-attendees won't have, or indeed think they have, the virus.

But yes, hopefully it has travelled far more widely than may have been presumed, thus making the effect less devastating. (or alternatively, hang on to your seat)

focuszing723

Well, it will be relaxing for the immune.

shortfall

pblakeney said:

ballysmate said:

pblakeney said:

I'm already getting it in the ear from an oldie moaning about measures put in place specifically to protect the oldies.
How long can we tolerate a lockdown? About a week apparently.
As said it will be complete chaos the first few really nice days.

Got to get away from the idea that it is a virus that only attacks oldies.

That wasn't my point. My point is that he can tolerate the restrictions for no longer.
He basically agrees with Shortfall.

As an example, here is a direct quote - "The coronavirus panic reminds of the fable The Emperors new clothes for some reason."

My point isn't just about whether it's tolerable or the assault on civil liberties is justified, it's also about the law of unintended consequence that may lead indirectly to much more suffering and many more deaths than the virus will cause of itself. On civil liberties, for those of you who dismiss my concerns about a police state, you may want to pay attention to former Supreme Court Judge Jonathan Sumption who warns of this very thing in The Times with the introduction of sweeping powers the government has awarded itself and nodded through parliament without debate or any opposition. Behind a paywall I'm afraid but the longer this goes on, the more likely some of you are to come around to my way of thinking.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/there-is-a-difference-between-the-law-and-official-instructions-j9tthqnrf

"There is a difference between law and official instructions. It is the difference between a democracy and a police state. Liberty and the rule of law are surely worth something even in the face of a pandemic"