The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
-
-
To demonstrate just why I remain a 'Doris' rather than a trader / speculator on equities, whodathunk that the US would post such a hike in unemployment numbers but the Dow Jones would rise by 4.5%? Ok the DJ is not fully representative but the S&P500 is also up by 4.2%. Unless the weasels had priced in even higher unemployment?0
-
Feels slightly like the spectator has gone fishing for a particular 'hot take' and has found a doctor happy to supply it.shortfall said:Another interesting take that questions the lockdown strategy and the recording of deaths.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think/amp?__twitter_impression=true
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.
The rushed science = poor science is a fair take, but surely applies equally to his article.0 -
Austrian authorities have started a criminal investigation into the alleged cover-up of the Coronavirus outbreak in Ischgl0
-
And what of Niall Ferguson modelling 250000 deaths last week and this week saying it will e less than 20000, 2 thirds of whom would likely die in the next 6 months anyway?Jeremy.89 said:
Feels slightly like the spectator has gone fishing for a particular 'hot take' and has found a doctor happy to supply it.shortfall said:Another interesting take that questions the lockdown strategy and the recording of deaths.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think/amp?__twitter_impression=true
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.
The rushed science = poor science is a fair take, but surely applies equally to his article.0 -
Didn't we come to the conclusion some time ago that forecasts are meaningless?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Worth remembering. Today's UK deaths up by 115.kingstongraham said:
Timing apparently.kingstonian said:
Wonder what the change in approach actually meanstailwindhome said:
Sounds like they are priming for today's to be a high number.
Still now a bit under Italy at the same stage, next few days could get scary if it follows that path.0 -
I don't know if you noticed any changes to strategy that might have changed predictions?shortfall said:
And what of Niall Ferguson modelling 250000 deaths last week and this week saying it will e less than 20000, 2 thirds of whom would likely die in the next 6 months anyway?Jeremy.89 said:
Feels slightly like the spectator has gone fishing for a particular 'hot take' and has found a doctor happy to supply it.shortfall said:Another interesting take that questions the lockdown strategy and the recording of deaths.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think/amp?__twitter_impression=true
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.
The rushed science = poor science is a fair take, but surely applies equally to his article.0 -
kingstongraham said:
Worth remembering. Today's UK deaths up by 115.kingstongraham said:
Timing apparently.kingstonian said:
Wonder what the change in approach actually meanstailwindhome said:
Sounds like they are priming for today's to be a high number.
Still now a bit under Italy at the same stage, next few days could get scary if it follows that path.
Part of that is (apparently) changing the timing for collection of data (sorry if that sounds brutal in the context), so yesterday's figure was under-reported, and today's over-reported.0 -
Post hoc ergo propter hoc. We're in a situation now where the government will claim any credit if the number of deaths is within the 20k bracket and will demand more draconian lockdowns if the number is higher.kingstongraham said:
I don't know if you noticed any changes to strategy that might have changed predictions?shortfall said:
And what of Niall Ferguson modelling 250000 deaths last week and this week saying it will e less than 20000, 2 thirds of whom would likely die in the next 6 months anyway?Jeremy.89 said:
Feels slightly like the spectator has gone fishing for a particular 'hot take' and has found a doctor happy to supply it.shortfall said:Another interesting take that questions the lockdown strategy and the recording of deaths.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think/amp?__twitter_impression=true
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.
The rushed science = poor science is a fair take, but surely applies equally to his article.0 -
Does anyone understand the current situation regarding CJRS in relation to company directors / those paid through dividends? It looks like it has slipped through between employees and self-employed so they'll only get 80% of the salary element which is usually very low. It doesn't seem worth protecting the employees in the directors can no longer afford to live. I suppose they could furlough all salaried staff to maximise profit and continue paying themselves a dividend to live on but that doesn't really seem to be in the spirit of the rules.0
-
I can't see sympathy levels being very high.
Sometimes you play the system, sometimes the system plays you.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?0 -
Also sidesteps the point that its not *only* the old and infirm, just *mostly*.briantrumpet said:Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I don't see how different it is to the self-employed (who it appears will be able to claim a full grant whilst carrying on working a bit).pblakeney said:I can't see sympathy levels being very high.
Sometimes you play the system, sometimes the system plays you.
As I've said before, in my case it was how's new start company could afford to ensure I matched my previous take home salary. I'd much rather be on PAYE as self-assessment is a PITA and I would also have more being paid into my pension on the equivalent salary.
Still, after the day I've had I really can't be arsed worrying about what might happen financially in a few months.0 -
Coopster has got a job at The Telegraph?briantrumpet said:Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?0 -
Let's see how much you are moaning when you are struggling to pay the bills and feed your family in a few months time!Pross said:
Coopster has got a job at The Telegraph?briantrumpet said:Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?
The cost benefit of life happens all the time in medicine when new drugs are considered by NICE.
This is no different except the scale.
Unless we lockdown for 18+ months while waiting for a vaccine we won't avoid tens of thousands, if not 100k+ deaths but if we are locked down for 18+ months we as a country won't be able to afford the vaccine anyway.0 -
I am in this position.Not all directors earn large amounts. However I am pleased that I will get 80% of my employees wages paid. I will try and pay them their full wages, so I will lose money over the period of this quarantine. I think the goverment has been pretty supportive.Pross said:Does anyone understand the current situation regarding CJRS in relation to company directors / those paid through dividends? It looks like it has slipped through between employees and self-employed so they'll only get 80% of the salary element which is usually very low. It doesn't seem worth protecting the employees in the directors can no longer afford to live. I suppose they could furlough all salaried staff to maximise profit and continue paying themselves a dividend to live on but that doesn't really seem to be in the spirit of the rules.
I think we all have to accept that this is going to cost us all to some degree. I am hoping people will claim only what they need to and not game the system0 -
We have had some colossal disagreements in the past but this is genuine advice.coopster_the_1st said:
Let's see how much you are moaning when you are struggling to pay the bills and feed your family in a few months time!Pross said:
Coopster has got a job at The Telegraph?briantrumpet said:Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?
The cost benefit of life happens all the time in medicine when new drugs are considered by NICE.
This is no different except the scale.
Unless we lockdown for 18+ months while waiting for a vaccine we won't avoid tens of thousands, if not 100k+ deaths but if we are locked down for 18+ months we as a country won't be able to afford the vaccine anyway.
Yours is a perfectly valid viewpoint but your delivery is appalling and as everybody is touched by the virus will become more and more inappropriate.
You need to focus on cost benefit analysis to show that more lives will be lost in Boris plan B than Boris plan A. It will obviously be impossible to prove definitively but with diligent research you will be able to compile a robust argument.0 -
The Chinese government is also not known for missing an opportunity to crank up its authoritarianism. Perfect opportunity to trial a few extra levels of surveillance and control.Jeremy.89 said:
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.
0 -
I salute your approach to your employees during this. If you are a public facing business, promote this as people will respect the businesses like yours doing this when this is over.diplodicus said:
I am in this position.Not all directors earn large amounts. However I am pleased that I will get 80% of my employees wages paid. I will try and pay them their full wages, so I will lose money over the period of this quarantine. I think the goverment has been pretty supportive.Pross said:Does anyone understand the current situation regarding CJRS in relation to company directors / those paid through dividends? It looks like it has slipped through between employees and self-employed so they'll only get 80% of the salary element which is usually very low. It doesn't seem worth protecting the employees in the directors can no longer afford to live. I suppose they could furlough all salaried staff to maximise profit and continue paying themselves a dividend to live on but that doesn't really seem to be in the spirit of the rules.
I think we all have to accept that this is going to cost us all to some degree. I am hoping people will claim only what they need to and not game the system
I wish I had your confidence in people not gaming the system but we only have to look at the stupidity of people wearing ineffective masks or panic buying toilet roll to show there are large enough numbers that will milk everything they can get out of the system.0 -
P
Ironically our move to being a police state has been met by complaints about the lack of surveillance and controlbompington said:
The Chinese government is also not known for missing an opportunity to crank up its authoritarianism. Perfect opportunity to trial a few extra levels of surveillance and control.Jeremy.89 said:
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.0 -
People in glass houses should not throw stones. If they throw those stones their actions have consequences.surrey_commuter said:
We have had some colossal disagreements in the past but this is genuine advice.coopster_the_1st said:
Let's see how much you are moaning when you are struggling to pay the bills and feed your family in a few months time!Pross said:
Coopster has got a job at The Telegraph?briantrumpet said:Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?
The cost benefit of life happens all the time in medicine when new drugs are considered by NICE.
This is no different except the scale.
Unless we lockdown for 18+ months while waiting for a vaccine we won't avoid tens of thousands, if not 100k+ deaths but if we are locked down for 18+ months we as a country won't be able to afford the vaccine anyway.
Yours is a perfectly valid viewpoint but your delivery is appalling and as everybody is touched by the virus will become more and more inappropriate.
You need to focus on cost benefit analysis to show that more lives will be lost in Boris plan B than Boris plan A. It will obviously be impossible to prove definitively but with diligent research you will be able to compile a robust argument.
I am looking out for the 99.5%+ who will have to pick up the pieces after all this, not the less than 0.5% who have already gained many years of life because of fantastic medical advances.
As for your 'advice', take a long run off a short pier with it!0 -
D1cks gonna be d1cks whatever the circumstances.1
-
I'm not sure they really need a particular opportunity to be honest.bompington said:
The Chinese government is also not known for missing an opportunity to crank up its authoritarianism. Perfect opportunity to trial a few extra levels of surveillance and control.Jeremy.89 said:
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.
0 -
Who has suggested a total lockdown for 18 months? That doesn't appear to be remotely on the cards. We've been at it barely a week. As for this only affecting old people who would die soon anyway, that's clearly not the case. The effects are more severe in the elderly those with underlying conditions, but it's far from a trivial illness even in the young and healthy.coopster_the_1st said:
Let's see how much you are moaning when you are struggling to pay the bills and feed your family in a few months time!Pross said:
Coopster has got a job at The Telegraph?briantrumpet said:Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?
The cost benefit of life happens all the time in medicine when new drugs are considered by NICE.
This is no different except the scale.
Unless we lockdown for 18+ months while waiting for a vaccine we won't avoid tens of thousands, if not 100k+ deaths but if we are locked down for 18+ months we as a country won't be able to afford the vaccine anyway.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
This isn't a total lockdown. Just look at Italy, Spain or France for possible future steps. This lockdown is doing enough economic damage as it is. Just look across at the USA to see a 3m increase in umemployment in a week as an example.rjsterry said:
Who has suggested a total lockdown for 18 months? That doesn't appear to be remotely on the cards. We've been at it barely a week. As for this only affecting old people who would die soon anyway, that's clearly not the case. The effects are more severe in the elderly those with underlying conditions, but it's far from a trivial illness even in the young and healthy.coopster_the_1st said:
Let's see how much you are moaning when you are struggling to pay the bills and feed your family in a few months time!Pross said:
Coopster has got a job at The Telegraph?briantrumpet said:Seems that someone at The Telegraph is a fan of Trump's plan to let the old and vulnerable die to 'save the economy'. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/lockdown-wests-berlin-wall-moment-elite-managerialism-collapses/
"He should pay heed to Trump, who is raring to get America up and running by Easter lest the cure be worst than the disease. Premature perhaps, but at least he is forcing Americans to frankly debate the trade-offs: millions of livelihoods versus thousands of lives."
FTR, the "thousands" is likely to be passed in the next few days, unless she really meant tens, hundreds, or thousands of thousands. But, hey, what's a decimal point, when it's only old people and people who are a drain on tax payers and don't make a financial contribution to the economy?
The cost benefit of life happens all the time in medicine when new drugs are considered by NICE.
This is no different except the scale.
Unless we lockdown for 18+ months while waiting for a vaccine we won't avoid tens of thousands, if not 100k+ deaths but if we are locked down for 18+ months we as a country won't be able to afford the vaccine anyway.
A question I've yet to see asked, let alone answered, is what are the steps we will take to reverse the lockdown?
It's not like on 1st May the government can announce all pubs can open as you'll have 30m people going to the pub!
Anything that is unlocked will now just get swarmed in large numbers thus forcing it to be locked down again almost immediately.
Right now we need less moral posturing and more pragmatism0 -
So, what would you do?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
You guys only have one pub?coopster_the_1st said:It's not like on 1st May the government can announce all pubs can open as you'll have 30m people going to the pub!
Anything that is unlocked will now just get swarmed in large numbers thus forcing it to be locked down again almost immediately.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
This thread is worth a read.shortfall said:
Post hoc ergo propter hoc. We're in a situation now where the government will claim any credit if the number of deaths is within the 20k bracket and will demand more draconian lockdowns if the number is higher.kingstongraham said:
I don't know if you noticed any changes to strategy that might have changed predictions?shortfall said:
And what of Niall Ferguson modelling 250000 deaths last week and this week saying it will e less than 20000, 2 thirds of whom would likely die in the next 6 months anyway?Jeremy.89 said:
Feels slightly like the spectator has gone fishing for a particular 'hot take' and has found a doctor happy to supply it.shortfall said:Another interesting take that questions the lockdown strategy and the recording of deaths.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think/amp?__twitter_impression=true
I think, given that the Chinese government isn't known for putting lives ahead of the economy, their total shutdown of Wuhan is a pretty stark suggestion of how serious they considered Covid to be.
The rushed science = poor science is a fair take, but surely applies equally to his article.
0
