The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Remember that a virus sweeping through the population and overwhelming the health service will also be bad for the economy.0
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My farming relatives are currently delighted with the school closures. More workers and no school run during lambing!thecycleclinic said:
The other problem is harvest time. There food in the system now but farmers need to continue to get animals to slaughter, and pull in the harvest in august. A shortage of farm hands is to be expected.
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The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
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This bit shows that there is still a worrying lack of understanding out there despite the Government having tried to explain things through the media for a while now.thecycleclinic said:
Secondly there are two types of head in the sand thinking. One is I can carry on as normal. That's wrong. Birkenhead was full of shoppers yesterday. The other is that shutting ourselves indoors and everyone deemed not essential stops working and that will makes this go away. It wont and that's the problem. The virus is still out there.
The intention is to slow the rate of spread so that it doesn't exceed the NHS capacity then once that outbreak is controlled restrictions are lifted and you get a second wave and the controls get reintroduced. No-one is burying their heads in sand in the way you are suggesting a d expecting the virus to go away although there is hope the warmer weather will slow it down a bit. This is exactly why non-essential work and travel has to be restricted.
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In the meantime staff in my wife's company continue to exploit the quarantine and sick pay rules meaning my wife will now be in work until at least Friday night whilst also trying to sort out what is happening with her elderly aunt who gets her Covid test results back today but is already confirmed as having pneumonia.0
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What is going to be the impact on the NHS in the medium and long term from the recession we are putting ourselves into?kingstongraham said:Remember that a virus sweeping through the population and overwhelming the health service will also be bad for the economy.
There is a report in The Times today from a professor of risk management at Bristol University that says if GDP reduces by 6.4% more life years will be lost from the recession than the virus itself.
GDP is way too crude a measure for this IMO but it is good that the medium and long term view is being considered as we will all have to live in whatever the post C19 new normal is0 -
Bla bla bla. Read what I wrote. You think that you are going to avoid a recession if there's a public health crisis? Fuck sake, get a fucking grip.coopster_the_1st said:
What is going to be the impact on the NHS in the medium and long term from the recession we are putting ourselves into?kingstongraham said:Remember that a virus sweeping through the population and overwhelming the health service will also be bad for the economy.
There is a report in The Times today from a professor of risk management at Bristol University that says if GDP reduces by 6.4% more life years will be lost from the recession than the virus itself.
GDP is way too crude a measure for this IMO but it is good that the medium and long term view is being considered as we will all have to live in whatever the post C19 new normal is0 -
TheBigBean said:
My farming relatives are currently delighted with the school closures. More workers and no school run during lambing!thecycleclinic said:
The other problem is harvest time. There food in the system now but farmers need to continue to get animals to slaughter, and pull in the harvest in august. A shortage of farm hands is to be expected.
Were the long school summer holidays not historically deliberately linked to harvest times?0 -
Yes. I believe there is still an extended half-term break in Scotland for the same reason.ballysmate said:TheBigBean said:
My farming relatives are currently delighted with the school closures. More workers and no school run during lambing!thecycleclinic said:
The other problem is harvest time. There food in the system now but farmers need to continue to get animals to slaughter, and pull in the harvest in august. A shortage of farm hands is to be expected.
Were the long school summer holidays not historically deliberately linked to harvest times?0 -
In some parts of Scotland, including ours, we still have the "tatty holidays" in October - a two week holiday so the kids can go and howk tatties.ballysmate said:TheBigBean said:
My farming relatives are currently delighted with the school closures. More workers and no school run during lambing!thecycleclinic said:
The other problem is harvest time. There food in the system now but farmers need to continue to get animals to slaughter, and pull in the harvest in august. A shortage of farm hands is to be expected.
Were the long school summer holidays not historically deliberately linked to harvest times?0 -
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html0 -
focuszing723 said:
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
Nobody actually knows what the infection:illness ratio is yet. There's a lot of guessing based on the relatively limited testing to date but there's no way we can accurately gauge this. It's not impossible that the percentage of people who are infected an go on to show the full flu symptoms is quite low.
More accurate testing is needed as soon as its possible to get a clearer picture of how this works.You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
And read what I wrote. It boils down to long term health for all over short termism i.e. what is the greater good for all.kingstongraham said:
Bla bla bla. Read what I wrote. You think that you are going to avoid a recession if there's a public health crisis? censored sake, get a censored grip.coopster_the_1st said:
What is going to be the impact on the NHS in the medium and long term from the recession we are putting ourselves into?kingstongraham said:Remember that a virus sweeping through the population and overwhelming the health service will also be bad for the economy.
There is a report in The Times today from a professor of risk management at Bristol University that says if GDP reduces by 6.4% more life years will be lost from the recession than the virus itself.
GDP is way too crude a measure for this IMO but it is good that the medium and long term view is being considered as we will all have to live in whatever the post C19 new normal is
According to a University Professor more years of life will be lost if the measures we are currently taking cause GDP to reduce by more than 6.4%
We won't avoid a recession and I've never said that.
Here is a moral dilemna for you as you don't seem to understand this or are just playing ignorant which is worse. It is more important for an old and vulnerable person today to have 2 years extra life now over a 30 year old getting 20 years additional life in 20 years time?
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I feel this is an irresponsible report without it being peer reviewed as it risks setting back the measures currently in place by people becoming complacentTheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html0 -
The population density in New York is horrendous there packed in like sardines in some buildings. Excellent conditions for infections to spread, I’m glad I don’t live there right nowbriantrumpet said:I seem to remember saying that the US would be catastrophic... look at NYC here... deaths of doubling every day, and only just been put on lockdown.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1242569585016086531
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Yeah, that will really make a difference and test to find out if people are immune too.Longshot said:focuszing723 said:
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
Nobody actually knows what the infection:illness ratio is yet. There's a lot of guessing based on the relatively limited testing to date but there's no way we can accurately gauge this. It's not impossible that the percentage of people who are infected an go on to show the full flu symptoms is quite low.
More accurate testing is needed as soon as its possible to get a clearer picture of how this works.0 -
I don't think anyone disagrees with this but with resources being limited(a human needs to perform and do the clinical test), which they are, then testing should be reserved for frontline medical staff and those entering hospital so the appropiate treatment can be administered.focuszing723 said:
Yeah, that will really make a difference and test to find out if people are immune too.Longshot said:focuszing723 said:
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
Nobody actually knows what the infection:illness ratio is yet. There's a lot of guessing based on the relatively limited testing to date but there's no way we can accurately gauge this. It's not impossible that the percentage of people who are infected an go on to show the full flu symptoms is quite low.
More accurate testing is needed as soon as its possible to get a clearer picture of how this works.
Never should some hypochondriac snowflake be prioritised for a test over the above people.0 -
It's purely a theory, which needs testing to validate. If they're right, it's good news but does it feel like it hangs together with the rise in the number of cases that require hospitalisation? If they are wrong, it's not great that it's been reported.TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html0 -
They did state that they are not advising a change in approach for this very reason.coopster_the_1st said:
I feel this is an irresponsible report without it being peer reviewed as it risks setting back the measures currently in place by people becoming complacentTheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
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We agree and I like how you originally described the theory however that is not how our media is reporting this.TheBigBean said:
They did state that they are not advising a change in approach for this very reason.coopster_the_1st said:
I feel this is an irresponsible report without it being peer reviewed as it risks setting back the measures currently in place by people becoming complacentTheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html0 -
Manhattan is USA's Kensington and Chelsea. Lots of well off people live there, lots of people come in from New Jersey to work there. Most emergency workers are from NJ, so they can't close the state border.Charlie_Croker said:
The population density in New York is horrendous there packed in like sardines in some buildings. Excellent conditions for infections to spread, I’m glad I don’t live there right nowbriantrumpet said:I seem to remember saying that the US would be catastrophic... look at NYC here... deaths of doubling every day, and only just been put on lockdown.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/12425695850160865310 -
That's not a kind way to refer to HRHcoopster_the_1st said:
I don't think anyone disagrees with this but with resources being limited(a human needs to perform and do the clinical test), which they are, then testing should be reserved for frontline medical staff and those entering hospital so the appropiate treatment can be administered.focuszing723 said:
Yeah, that will really make a difference and test to find out if people are immune too.Longshot said:focuszing723 said:
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
Nobody actually knows what the infection:illness ratio is yet. There's a lot of guessing based on the relatively limited testing to date but there's no way we can accurately gauge this. It's not impossible that the percentage of people who are infected an go on to show the full flu symptoms is quite low.
More accurate testing is needed as soon as its possible to get a clearer picture of how this works.
Never should some hypochondriac snowflake be prioritised for a test over the above people.
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Interesting, and even if a smallish proportion of that are infected, it likely means that many of us are effectively asymptomatic. Once it became apparent how infectious and contagious this disease is, I did think that it was likely the numbers could be far higher, even allowing for the limits on testing and the time lag.TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
It's quite funny seeing people frothing about that. Did they really think that being first in line to the throne didn't come with some special treatment?bompington said:
That's not a kind way to refer to HRHcoopster_the_1st said:
I don't think anyone disagrees with this but with resources being limited(a human needs to perform and do the clinical test), which they are, then testing should be reserved for frontline medical staff and those entering hospital so the appropiate treatment can be administered.focuszing723 said:
Yeah, that will really make a difference and test to find out if people are immune too.Longshot said:focuszing723 said:
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
Nobody actually knows what the infection:illness ratio is yet. There's a lot of guessing based on the relatively limited testing to date but there's no way we can accurately gauge this. It's not impossible that the percentage of people who are infected an go on to show the full flu symptoms is quite low.
More accurate testing is needed as soon as its possible to get a clearer picture of how this works.
Never should some hypochondriac snowflake be prioritised for a test over the above people.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Spoke to a colleague in Madrid just now. She said that a couple of days ago the police issued over 30,000 fines to people who were breaking the lockdown rules.0
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Royal stock is very low at the moment. If they keep this up they won't be in such a privileged position for too much longer, especially when you look at who is upset by it.rjsterry said:
It's quite funny seeing people frothing about that. Did they really think that being first in line to the throne didn't come with some special treatment?0 -
Hot air merchants Piers Morgan and Julia Hartley-Brewer? This really is way down the list of things to give a censored about.rick_chasey said:
Royal stock is very low at the moment. If they keep this up they won't be in such a privileged position for too much longer, especially when you look at who is upset by it.rjsterry said:
It's quite funny seeing people frothing about that. Did they really think that being first in line to the throne didn't come with some special treatment?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I don't think Phil is in line to the throne. Oops!rjsterry said:
It's quite funny seeing people frothing about that. Did they really think that being first in line to the throne didn't come with some special treatment?bompington said:
That's not a kind way to refer to HRHcoopster_the_1st said:
I don't think anyone disagrees with this but with resources being limited(a human needs to perform and do the clinical test), which they are, then testing should be reserved for frontline medical staff and those entering hospital so the appropiate treatment can be administered.focuszing723 said:
Yeah, that will really make a difference and test to find out if people are immune too.Longshot said:focuszing723 said:
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
Nobody actually knows what the infection:illness ratio is yet. There's a lot of guessing based on the relatively limited testing to date but there's no way we can accurately gauge this. It's not impossible that the percentage of people who are infected an go on to show the full flu symptoms is quite low.
More accurate testing is needed as soon as its possible to get a clearer picture of how this works.
Never should some hypochondriac snowflake be prioritised for a test over the above people.
Wonder how he got to Balmoral. Necessary travel? #spreading
Edit:- I thought it was Phil, not Charlie. He's not ageing well. 😉
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
So shopping update.
Local Morrison’s has initiated one in one out regime.
Positives:
store far less crowded.
Negatives:
The blitz spirit did not exist in the queue. It was all very inconvenient for a significant number of older queuees.
Queue was downwind so I felt I was quite possibly receiving more exhaled air than otherwise would have.
Whole trip took 3x what it would have done so mingling for longer but in less dense crowd.
Shelves gradually getting re-stocked which is good for essentials. Bulky, nutritionally poor item like crisps have been sacrificed at the altar of useful food which is not good for the kids. Some of the rationing is harsh. 3 x tinned products is pretty restrictive.
Sacrificed about 5 items at the till on a small shop. Is what it is though, most certainly wasn’t going to give anybody a hard time over it.
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So long as he sticks to his Homeopathy rather than utilising the NHS, i don't mind.bompington said:
That's not a kind way to refer to HRHcoopster_the_1st said:
I don't think anyone disagrees with this but with resources being limited(a human needs to perform and do the clinical test), which they are, then testing should be reserved for frontline medical staff and those entering hospital so the appropiate treatment can be administered.focuszing723 said:
Yeah, that will really make a difference and test to find out if people are immune too.Longshot said:focuszing723 said:
I think they are well of with that. Wouldn't we have seen these people in hospital earlier coughing? It would have spread through the patient bays quickly being so virulent and contagious?TheBigBean said:
The antibody test will be much more revealing. A University of Oxford model thinks that half of the UK may already have been infected. Good news if true, but it is essentially the iceberg max theory. Anyway, antibody testing will be key.surrey_commuter said:Times saying that 5,605 tests were done yesterday
Seems a long time ago that we were told it was 10,000, rising to 25,000 and on to 250,000 a day.
Our total is 84,000 in comparison to S. Korea 300,000 and Germany 400,000
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html
Nobody actually knows what the infection:illness ratio is yet. There's a lot of guessing based on the relatively limited testing to date but there's no way we can accurately gauge this. It's not impossible that the percentage of people who are infected an go on to show the full flu symptoms is quite low.
More accurate testing is needed as soon as its possible to get a clearer picture of how this works.
Never should some hypochondriac snowflake be prioritised for a test over the above people.0
