The big Coronavirus thread

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

It would be nice if the press weren't ahead of the government.

Alas, a cabinet run by a journalist (who was sacked for writing lies) was always likely to be stronger at the press bit than the running the country bit.

I said to friends before the election that having a congenital liar in charge would be worse than having grandad in charge.

Hands up who voted for him? Get in the line behind the leave voters please.

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

rick_chasey

Coopster have you gone out of your way to get it yet?

pblakeney

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

Even closer if it is 1:970, and you have underlying conditions. Not that those conditions would prevent me enjoying another 30 fun filled years. Which I’d like to do, thanks.

coopster_the_1st

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

The risk of death for your age group (2018) is 1 in 857

9916 died out of 8.5m

Perspective!

john80

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Man goes to a bar of 400 people on friday night after a day at work on a call centre open plan office of 200 on that floor using london tube system. On saturday he goes to lunch at a pub then a concert at the Albert hall the a nightclub of 400 people. On Sunday he takes it easy and stays in the house bit starts to feel unwell so calls 111. They now have to track and trace all the people that he might have come into contact with so that they can self isolate for 7 days just in case with some form of testing in the week to release them.

One guy has forced hundreds out of work and into self isolation. You are in charge of tracing all those he had contact with how do you do it. Call centre will be able to give you a list of staff bit will be unhappy their entire staff are not showing up on Monday. Pub maybe you can check their electronic payments and CCTV which wont get you everyone and is massively time consuming. Albert hall might have good ticket records. Nightclub who knows. Tube maybe can use the oystercard details and a masive logistical effort to see who might have went on the carriage at the same time or later.

In summary you are literally endlessly chasing your tail with this plan. Am i tje only one who sees the issue with testing and tracing. This is before we look at the situation where a large number of people may not show any symptoms and therefore maybe are not happy to have their freedom curtailed and income hammered.

rick_chasey

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

The risk of death for your age group (2018) is 1 in 857

9916 died out of 8.5m

Perspective!

Have you put your money where your mouth is and gone out to deliberately contract the illness?

kingstongraham

john80 said:

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Man goes to a bar of 400 people on friday night after a day at work on a call centre open plan office of 200 on that floor using london tube system. On saturday he goes to lunch at a pub then a concert at the Albert hall the a nightclub of 400 people. On Sunday he takes it easy and stays in the house bit starts to feel unwell so calls 111. They now have to track and trace all the people that he might have come into contact with so that they can self isolate for 7 days just in case with some form of testing in the week to release them.

One guy has forced hundreds out of work and into self isolation. You are in charge of tracing all those he had contact with how do you do it. Call centre will be able to give you a list of staff bit will be unhappy their entire staff are not showing up on Monday. Pub maybe you can check their electronic payments and CCTV which wont get you everyone and is massively time consuming. Albert hall might have good ticket records. Nightclub who knows. Tube maybe can use the oystercard details and a masive logistical effort to see who might have went on the carriage at the same time or later.

In summary you are literally endlessly chasing your tail with this plan. Am i tje only one who sees the issue with testing and tracing. This is before we look at the situation where a large number of people may not show any symptoms and therefore maybe are not happy to have their freedom curtailed and income hammered.

You're absolutely right, those venues probably shouldn't be allowed to open.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1252447324183449600?s=21

So they’re basically lying now

Probably. However, the alternative is that the supplier had told them it was on its way and only when that didn't happen did the Government feel the need to involve Turkish authorities. The fact they only asked the authorities for help on Sunday does not automatically mean they didn't genuinely believe the order was en route as they ordered from a private company.

However, I've said before that the Government needs people on the ground with the major suppliers to ensure deliveries meet the necessary standards, contain what they should and get sent on time to ensure it can be brought into use as quickly as possible and so that any problems with supply are notified ASAP.

ugo.santalucia

Sweden beginning to look dodgy... they have a habit of reporting deaths inconsistently, but definitively an increasing trend of both infection and deaths, and surely a lot higher than neighbouring countries... I am sure they are beginning to wonder if it was a good idea to leave bars and shops open

Pross

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

Is it 1:7000 if you get it bad enough that it gets recorded though? Extrapolating from that I'd be nearer 1:1000.

ugo.santalucia

Even if we assume that there are just as many non talked about deaths in care homes in the UK, hence doubling the death toll in the UK, which is a bit extreme, it's still a lot lower than Belgium...

pangolin

john80 said:

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Man goes to a bar of 400 people on friday night after a day at work on a call centre open plan office of 200 on that floor using london tube system. On saturday he goes to lunch at a pub then a concert at the Albert hall the a nightclub of 400 people. On Sunday he takes it easy and stays in the house bit starts to feel unwell so calls 111. They now have to track and trace all the people that he might have come into contact with so that they can self isolate for 7 days just in case with some form of testing in the week to release them.

One guy has forced hundreds out of work and into self isolation. You are in charge of tracing all those he had contact with how do you do it. Call centre will be able to give you a list of staff bit will be unhappy their entire staff are not showing up on Monday. Pub maybe you can check their electronic payments and CCTV which wont get you everyone and is massively time consuming. Albert hall might have good ticket records. Nightclub who knows. Tube maybe can use the oystercard details and a masive logistical effort to see who might have went on the carriage at the same time or later.

In summary you are literally endlessly chasing your tail with this plan. Am i tje only one who sees the issue with testing and tracing. This is before we look at the situation where a large number of people may not show any symptoms and therefore maybe are not happy to have their freedom curtailed and income hammered.

Yes you're the only one, no-one else has made these points.

pangolin

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

Even closer if it is 1:970, and you have underlying conditions. Not that those conditions would prevent me enjoying another 30 fun filled years. Which I’d like to do, thanks.

Sorry PB, it's for the economy old chap. Up against the wall there's a good fellow.

pangolin

rick_chasey said:

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1252447324183449600?s=21

So they’re basically lying now

Are we being asked to choose whether we trust the UK authorities or the Turkish authorities more?

An unenviable choice.

john80

kingstongraham said:

john80 said:

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Man goes to a bar of 400 people on friday night after a day at work on a call centre open plan office of 200 on that floor using london tube system. On saturday he goes to lunch at a pub then a concert at the Albert hall the a nightclub of 400 people. On Sunday he takes it easy and stays in the house bit starts to feel unwell so calls 111. They now have to track and trace all the people that he might have come into contact with so that they can self isolate for 7 days just in case with some form of testing in the week to release them.

One guy has forced hundreds out of work and into self isolation. You are in charge of tracing all those he had contact with how do you do it. Call centre will be able to give you a list of staff bit will be unhappy their entire staff are not showing up on Monday. Pub maybe you can check their electronic payments and CCTV which wont get you everyone and is massively time consuming. Albert hall might have good ticket records. Nightclub who knows. Tube maybe can use the oystercard details and a masive logistical effort to see who might have went on the carriage at the same time or later.

In summary you are literally endlessly chasing your tail with this plan. Am i tje only one who sees the issue with testing and tracing. This is before we look at the situation where a large number of people may not show any symptoms and therefore maybe are not happy to have their freedom curtailed and income hammered.

You're absolutely right, those venues probably shouldn't be allowed to open.

And this is the irony of those saying that being hard on tracing and testing will allow us to get back economically quicker. Your economy is going nowhere if you cant do any of those things. Especially given a lot of the economy is service sector. If you cant manage the logisitcs of trace and test in a normal working society then what literally is the point of advocating the approach.

surrey_commuter

tailwindhome said:

First.Aspect said:

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Me either. Just not sure it is a viable strategy here. Hence all the questions about what's the plan chaps, I guess.

From where we are now it's not viable, we haven't the test capacity, wouldn't know where to point it if we had, and the outbreaks are too widespread.

So we need to use the lock down period to reverse those barriers.

We do have the test capacity, the Govt insists on putting everything through central laboratories.
The fact that they have central drive through test centres sitting empty suggests they have a fixation with centralisation.

If criticism was allowed then the issues could be resolved

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

tailwindhome said:

First.Aspect said:

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Me either. Just not sure it is a viable strategy here. Hence all the questions about what's the plan chaps, I guess.

From where we are now it's not viable, we haven't the test capacity, wouldn't know where to point it if we had, and the outbreaks are too widespread.

So we need to use the lock down period to reverse those barriers.

We do have the test capacity, the Govt insists on putting everything through central laboratories.
The fact that they have central drive through test centres sitting empty suggests they have a fixation with centralisation.

If criticism was allowed then the issues could be resolved

Get someone who knows about testing and logistics in charge would help, rather than a entrepreneurial lobbyist.

kingstongraham

john80 said:

kingstongraham said:

john80 said:

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Man goes to a bar of 400 people on friday night after a day at work on a call centre open plan office of 200 on that floor using london tube system. On saturday he goes to lunch at a pub then a concert at the Albert hall the a nightclub of 400 people. On Sunday he takes it easy and stays in the house bit starts to feel unwell so calls 111. They now have to track and trace all the people that he might have come into contact with so that they can self isolate for 7 days just in case with some form of testing in the week to release them.

One guy has forced hundreds out of work and into self isolation. You are in charge of tracing all those he had contact with how do you do it. Call centre will be able to give you a list of staff bit will be unhappy their entire staff are not showing up on Monday. Pub maybe you can check their electronic payments and CCTV which wont get you everyone and is massively time consuming. Albert hall might have good ticket records. Nightclub who knows. Tube maybe can use the oystercard details and a masive logistical effort to see who might have went on the carriage at the same time or later.

In summary you are literally endlessly chasing your tail with this plan. Am i tje only one who sees the issue with testing and tracing. This is before we look at the situation where a large number of people may not show any symptoms and therefore maybe are not happy to have their freedom curtailed and income hammered.

You're absolutely right, those venues probably shouldn't be allowed to open.

And this is the irony of those saying that being hard on tracing and testing will allow us to get back economically quicker. Your economy is going nowhere if you cant do any of those things. Especially given a lot of the economy is service sector. If you cant manage the logisitcs of trace and test in a normal working society then what literally is the point of advocating the approach.

What happens without test and trace? Not better I'd say. Loads of people in that pub probably get it, pass it to loads of people each, etc etc.

We aren't going back to normal. Grasp that.

coopster_the_1st

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

Even closer if it is 1:970, and you have underlying conditions. Not that those conditions would prevent me enjoying another 30 fun filled years. Which I’d like to do, thanks.

Your normal annual risk of death is 1 in 414.

How did you live your life before C19 came along?

rick_chasey

Just read that deaths recorded in care homes were only asked to say if they had died from Corona or not on April 9th.

WTAF.

tailwindhome

john80 said:

tailwindhome said:

Yet to hear a plan for reducing the spread of the infection after a lock down is lifted that doesn't involve testing and tracing.

Man goes to a bar of 400 people on friday night after a day at work on a call centre open plan office of 200 on that floor using london tube system. On saturday he goes to lunch at a pub then a concert at the Albert hall the a nightclub of 400 people. On Sunday he takes it easy and stays in the house bit starts to feel unwell so calls 111. They now have to track and trace all the people that he might have come into contact with so that they can self isolate for 7 days just in case with some form of testing in the week to release them.

One guy has forced hundreds out of work and into self isolation. You are in charge of tracing all those he had contact with how do you do it. Call centre will be able to give you a list of staff bit will be unhappy their entire staff are not showing up on Monday. Pub maybe you can check their electronic payments and CCTV which wont get you everyone and is massively time consuming. Albert hall might have good ticket records. Nightclub who knows. Tube maybe can use the oystercard details and a masive logistical effort to see who might have went on the carriage at the same time or later.

In summary you are literally endlessly chasing your tail with this plan. Am i tje only one who sees the issue with testing and tracing. This is before we look at the situation where a large number of people may not show any symptoms and therefore maybe are not happy to have their freedom curtailed and income hammered.

john80 said:

And this is the irony of those saying that being hard on tracing and testing will allow us to get back economically quicker. Your economy is going nowhere if you cant do any of those things. Especially given a lot of the economy is service sector. If you cant manage the logisitcs of trace and test in a normal working society then what literally is the point of advocating the approach.

There's an absolutism here that I can't satisfy.

rick_chasey

So what Germany are doing is really interesting.

They're experimenting for two weeks to have a select number of shops re-open, and with as much testing as they can muster they are going to see what impact it has on infection rates.

Through work I've been speaking to a number of Germans and they all seem to understand that it is an experiement to check out the data so they can decide what a future exit strategy might be.

This is exactly the kind of advantage lots of testing can offer; you can do these tweaks and nuanced lifts and get a really accurate picture of what works and what doesn't.

They are all quite resigned to the idea that this will be going on for a long time and it is experimental and they will soon be back in lock down.

Now these people are generally fairly switched on and successful, but it's so different from what people here are saying. It's so much more of a culture war over here

ugo.santalucia

Not sure I want to get out of lockdown any time soon... it's quite cosy...

pblakeney

coopster_the_1st said:

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

Even closer if it is 1:970, and you have underlying conditions. Not that those conditions would prevent me enjoying another 30 fun filled years. Which I’d like to do, thanks.

Your normal annual risk of death is 1 in 414.

How did you live your life before C19 came along?

This an additional risk on top of the original risk and less easy mitigated without social distancing, so more cautiously now. No brainier.

pblakeney

pangolin said:

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Argh, the hospitals are stopping non-urgent stuff *BECAUSE OF THE STRAIN OF CORONA ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM*.

*MORE CORONA CASES WILL MEAN EVEN MORE STRAIN ON HEALTHCARE*.

*PEOPLE AREN'T REPORTING THINGS BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE A BURDEN OR ARE WORRIED ABOUT GETTING CORONA*

less corona cases = more hospital ability to handle other illnesses.

As a result around half of non-ICU beds are empty and there was concern expressed by NHS heads that people are not attending hospital when they should be (Welsh figures but I suspect similar in many parts of England). Don't you think the non-attendance due to fear would be reduced if restrictions get eased as it would give a message that it's actually not as dangerous out there as it was?

The huge problem now is a large number of the population have the mindset that if they catch C19 they are going to die. Government messaging has created a "Project Fear on steriods" situation when the reality is far from this.

These are the death stats from C19 for different age groups.

20-29 0.004%(1 in 25,000)
30-39 0.007%(1 in 14,000)
40-49 0.014%(1 in 7,000)
50-59 0.103%(1 in 970)
60-69 0.492%(1 in 203)

I'll be honest, 1 in 7000 is rather close for comfort.

Even closer if it is 1:970, and you have underlying conditions. Not that those conditions would prevent me enjoying another 30 fun filled years. Which I’d like to do, thanks.

Sorry PB, it's for the economy old chap. Up against the wall there's a good fellow.

Let’s test your mind reading skills. What am I thinking about that?



Fairly close. Less swearing though. 😉

ugo.santalucia

Contracting a virus is not necessarily a black or white situation... yes, chances of dying are small, but chances of being quite sick for quite some time are actually pretty significant, as our brave PM clearly demonstrates.
Why would anyone want to put themselves through the risk of getting a disease that might go on for 2-3 weeks and leave you tired and breathless maybe for another 2-3 weeks after that... it would be a fairly stupid thing to do... and the chances might be as high as 10%.

Stevo_666

Interesting article on Germany (from behind a paywall): part 1

"They call it the “winner’s curse”. Success lulls you into a false sense of security. It is the temptation beguiling the German people as they relax their grip on Covid-19 a little too soon – to the horror of Dr Angela Merkel.

Nord-Rhein Westphalia has reopened car dealerships. Rheinland-Pfalz is opening some shopping malls and zoos. School pupils are going back to class for the Abitur exams.

Some Länder (German states) are pushing the envelope a long way, although Bavaria’s Marcus Söder – “Herr Lockdown” to his foes – is still holding firm for now.

The Berlin police say discipline was visibly breaking down over the weekend. Clusters of young people were gathering for barbecues. Others were crossing the city promiscuously to see friends.

The same sense of nonchalant normality was apparent in Hamburg, Hanover and other cities.

It seems that the first tentative steps to end Germany’s lockdown has caused a “messaging” problem, something that the behavioural nudge unit in Downing Street will be watching closely. People are acting as if the virus has been defeated. This psychological shift may be hard to reverse.

Chancellor Merkel castigated the leadership of her CDU party yesterday over “an orgy of chatter” on relaxation plans. She told journalists that the coronavirus is “treacherous” and will come back with exponential force if the country lowers its guard. “We are still a long way from being out of the woods. It would be a crying shame if we were to stumble into a relapse with eyes wide open,” she said.

But health policy is the prerogative of the Länder. Dealing with them is like herding cats. Merkel is under massive pressure from business lobbies and segments of her own CDU party to get the economy going again. There are echoes of the US culture wars.

North-Rhein Westpahlia’s premier, Armin Laschet – front-runner to succeed Merkel – is de facto leader of the Trumpian “liberate-the-people” wing of the party, as well as being an enthusiast for coal-fired plants and a closet climate denialist.

Michael Hüther from the German Economic Institute (IW) speaks for much of the economic professoriate in railing against lockdown measures, protesting that the damage to the German productive system (and indirectly to mental and physical health) has not been properly costed and that the cure is worse than the disease.

The Mittelstand family firms that form the backbone of the Wirtschaftswunder "economic miracle" in Germany are falling through the safety net. The restaurant, hotel, and travel sectors face irreversible ruin. Germany, he says, will end up in a full-blown depression if there is no remedy very soon."

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Part 2

"Prof Hüther advocates “smart distancing” and warns the government that it would be well-advised to stick to voluntary consent rather than coercion, mindful of basic liberties and the constitutional foundations of German freedom. These are powerful arguments. But is he right?

One is loath to criticise the Germans for their handling of this pandemic. They have done far better so far than the British, French, Dutch, Belgians, Spanish, or Italians – though not as well as Koreans – and were quicker to contain the spread of the virus by testing at the GP level.

My own view is that Merkel is closer to the mark and that her country – despite her advice – is in danger of making a serious mistake.

There are epidemiologists and virologists lined up on each side. One of the early alarmists has thrown in the towel, arguing that it is already too late to contain the virus and that the state should actively infect children and the young to accelerate herd immunity.

Whether he is right will depend on the first reliable, extensive, and random antibody results. Germany has reduced the RO spread rate to 0.8 – below the Holy Grail figure of 1.0 – but hardliners say that is still not enough.

Prof Michael Meyer-Hermann from the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research in Brunswick said the current number is a mirage – an “artistic effect” – distorted by delayed reporting over the Easter week. He thinks the reproduction rate must fall to 0.2pc or 0.3pc to defeat the virus. “Otherwise you will be walking a tightrope the whole time,” he said.

Prof Meyer-Hermann says an extra week of lockdown may inflict a lot of economic damage but not nearly as much damage as a second lockdown three weeks later as outbreaks erupt again. Germany does not yet have the surveillance structure in place for Korean-style contract tracing.

The government says the necessary smartphone app will not be available for another month. It is an open question whether East Asian methods can ever work in any case under German data protection laws. There is a national allergy to Big Brother measures – commendable at most times – linked to the trauma of the 1930s and the East German Stasi.

The fact that Germany’s case fatality death rate is 3.1pc (according to the Robert Koch Institute) suggests that it is missing at least two-third of cases. Its testing may be good by UK or French standards but it is still not good enough to manage a 1.0 RO rate in a stable fashion."

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And another one on Singapore:

"Singapore is to close schools and all but the most essential workplaces for a month, in a raft of stricter measures to limit a second wave of coronavirus cases.

The city state of 5.7 million has been held up as a model for the rest of the world after it successfully fought back the virus in the first few months of this year through aggressive testing measures and intensive tracing of carriers.

Singapore's contact-tracing smartphone app helped it minimise the spread of coronavirus, but the city state has now reported a number of new cases CREDIT: Catherine Lai/AFP
But it has struggled to keep out a fresh wave of coronavirus cases, many of them imported through overseas arrivals from virus hotspots in Europe and the US.

This week, infections topped 1,000, and on Friday, a fifth death was reported.

In a speech to its citizens, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said: "We have decided that instead of tightening incrementally over the next few weeks, we should make a decisive move now, to pre-empt escalating infections."

Food establishments, markets and supermarkets, clinics, hospitals, utilities, transport and key banking services will remain open.

However, schools and universities will switch to full home-based learning, and Mr Lee urged his citizens to stay at home as much as possible and avoid socialising beyond their families.

"If we don't go out, if we avoid contact with others, then the virus won't be able to spread. It is as simple as that," he said.

The South East Asian state had until this week maintained a relative sense of normality after adopting social-distancing measures alongside sophisticated technology to push back the virus.

The resurgence of cases raised new concerns about the difficulties of maintaining containment measures in the long term.

Mr Lee assured Singapore's citizens that food supplies would not run out and promised an announcement early next week about additional stimulus measures to boost the economy.

The new strict curbs are intended as a form of "circuit breaker" after a sharp rise of cases in March, particularly in domestic infections whose origin could not be traced.

Lawrence Wong, Minister for National Development, who co-chairs a task force to fight the virus, called the increase in the number of local and unlinked coronavirus cases "very, very worrying trends".

He indicated the Government would be ready to reverse restrictions by the end of April if the guidelines successfully suppressed the virus.

"If there's poor compliance, poor implementation, then we have to be prepared for these measures to continue," Mr Wong said. "Let’s hunker down and beat the virus together."

The new measures come after warnings in other Asian countries that the early relaxation of social-distancing rules could allow the floodgates to open on new Covid-19 cases."