The big Coronavirus thread

pangolin

And they write this:

"Almost three-quarters of the 51 healthcare workers whose deaths have been announced are also from BAME backgrounds, BBC analysis shows."

But make no mention of what percentage of front line NHS staff actually are BAME. Lazy.

rjsterry

morstar said:

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

John Burn Murdoch has analysed this and there is only a very weak correlation. It's not the magic key.

See thread here

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034?s=19

Rather awkwardly for some the best correlation with lower deaths is an earlier lockdown.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

You suggested we were worse than the others in the G10 other than the US but truth is we're worse than some and about the same as others. I'd rather were more like Germany but we aren't. I get the feeling the UK Government could create a vaccine themselves and resurrect those who have died and you'd find something negative about it.

I don't think they've done a very good job in some aspects especially PPE and testing but they haven't been any worse than most others in their response.

Better than US, Comparable to Italy and Spain on a week since 50 deaths basis, worse than every other G10.

I keep trying to say France counts care home deaths in their stats and they make up 30-40% of their deaths.

Did you see the analysis the dataviz chap at the Economist did on under-counting. If not have a look back as it sheds quite a different light.

morstar

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

John Burn Murdoch has analysed this and there is only a very weak correlation. It's not the magic key.

Fair enough. And that is about the only obvious pattern in the numbers.

coopster_the_1st

Sweden's infectious diseases chief has said parts of the country could achieve "herd immunity" as early as next month as debate rages over the rising death toll.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/18/stockholm-will-reach-herd-immunity-within-weeks/


We'll still be in a suppressed lockdown state by the time Stockholm reaches herd immunity.

coopster_the_1st

French carrier fleet Charles De Gaulle has 1081 infections out of 2300 personnel with only 20 of those infected hospitalised and only 1 in ICU.

This is invaluable data in the fight against C19 particularly as they will have an accurate profile of the 2300 personnel, particularly around who should be shielded.

Data is from here but the report is more concerned about the investigation which has caused the carrier to be immobilised.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200417-france-reports-40-of-aircraft-carrier-group-crew-test-positive-for-covid-19

rick_chasey

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Rick's autocorrect is playing up and every few words changes something to Germany.

Maybe Rick has a bug on his BR swear filter that means we see "Germany" instead of "censored" on his posts.

Yeah you’re right let’s ignore comparable nations who have materially fewer deaths.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

tailwindhome

Anonymous briefing to papers on a Friday/Saturday is a ****ing weird way to run a country at the best of times, but it's crazy in the middle of crisis.

kingstongraham

0.15% of the population of New York City have died of coronavirus in a month.

Makes me a bit wary of that study which says the mortality rate might only be 0.12%.

tailwindhome

The Sunday Times is being very negative about the UK government

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-38-days-when-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

John Burn Murdoch has analysed this and there is only a very weak correlation. It's not the magic key.

See thread here

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034?s=19

Rather awkwardly for some the best correlation with lower deaths is an earlier lockdown.

As mentioned before, the numbers at the end of all this will be the ones that will count and tell us more than a snapshot in what may be the early stages of this crisis.

Clearly an earlier lockdown will defer infections, but on the basis that we can only affect the timing until a vaccine or treatment is rolled out (and using your Olympic analogy), this is like showing the positions of runners a few miles into a marathon.

Stevo_666

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

I wasn't sure whether a few people realised that test and trace was not a solution in itself - hence the comment.

kingstongraham

Trump's having another normal one tonight.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1251627322865745920?s=19

Press briefing on the response to coronavirus, remember.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Rick's autocorrect is playing up and every few words changes something to Germany.

Maybe Rick has a bug on his BR swear filter that means we see "Germany" instead of "censored" on his posts.

Yeah you’re right let’s ignore comparable nations who have materially fewer deaths.

I think most of us are open to learning from other countries, but even the scientists appear to be struggling to cully understand why Germany has a lower mortality rate at this stage in the crisis than most other countries.

What most of us are not that interested in is using the comparison (especially when the reasons for the differences are not properly understood) as a way to demonstrate pre-existing biases.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

John Burn Murdoch has analysed this and there is only a very weak correlation. It's not the magic key.

See thread here

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034?s=19

Rather awkwardly for some the best correlation with lower deaths is an earlier lockdown.

As mentioned before, the numbers at the end of all this will be the ones that will count and tell us more than a snapshot in what may be the early stages of this crisis.

Clearly an earlier lockdown will defer infections, but on the basis that we can only affect the timing until a vaccine or treatment is rolled out (and using your Olympic analogy), this is like showing the positions of runners a few miles into a marathon.

Well, JBM is keeping the charts updated every day, so we'll find out soon enough. I would say that something would have to go disastrously wrong for the likes of, say, Australia to catch up with us, Spain and Italy now.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

morstar said:

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

John Burn Murdoch has analysed this and there is only a very weak correlation. It's not the magic key.

See thread here

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1249821596199596034?s=19

Rather awkwardly for some the best correlation with lower deaths is an earlier lockdown.

As mentioned before, the numbers at the end of all this will be the ones that will count and tell us more than a snapshot in what may be the early stages of this crisis.

Clearly an earlier lockdown will defer infections, but on the basis that we can only affect the timing until a vaccine or treatment is rolled out (and using your Olympic analogy), this is like showing the positions of runners a few miles into a marathon.

Well, JBM is keeping the charts updated every day, so we'll find out soon enough. I would say that something would have to go disastrously wrong for the likes of, say, Australia to catch up with us, Spain and Italy now.

Over what timescale? I would say the relavant timescale is either when a vaccine is rolled out, or when herd immunity is reached (assuming that is possible and the point it is reached can be measured).

ddraver

Sounds like a lot of journos at the whining lefty rag, The...*checks notes*... Sunday Times are going to need to be told to cheer up and say, '...but Holland!!" on the morrow...

Wheelspinner

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

Well, I don’t, in a practical sense anyway.

Find a vaccine in few months that works really effectively and maybe it is. Chances of that actually happening are somewhere between slim and SFA.

Here’s a list of all the vaccines available for Coronavirus infections, including for SARS and MERS:






Feel reassured now? Not for lack of trying I might add.

briantrumpet

kingstongraham said:

Trump's having another normal one tonight.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1251627322865745920?s=19

Press briefing on the response to coronavirus, remember.

It's worth reading the live tweets by Tom Nichols, a old-time Republican who sees Trump for what he is. His reporting of tonight's crazee show is, well...

https://mobile.twitter.com/RadioFreeTom

briantrumpet

Stevo_666

Wheelspinner said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

Well, I don’t, in a practical sense anyway.

Find a vaccine in few months that works really effectively and maybe it is. Chances of that actually happening are somewhere between slim and SFA.

Here’s a list of all the vaccines available for Coronavirus infections, including for SARS and MERS:






Feel reassured now? Not for lack of trying I might add.

Vaccines against viruses are possible as we have them for various flu strains. Corona viruses are different, but the fact that there are around 80 different ÇOVID 19 vaccine projects on the go currently suggests thst the professionals think it is feasible - the question is probably more one of timing.

It is more likely that there will be anti-viral treatments available before a vaccine is available:
https://healthline.com/health-news/heres-exactly-where-were-at-with-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19
Some of these already exist but clearly need to be assessed.

Wheelspinner

Stevo_666 said:

Wheelspinner said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

Well, I don’t, in a practical sense anyway.

Find a vaccine in few months that works really effectively and maybe it is. Chances of that actually happening are somewhere between slim and SFA.

Here’s a list of all the vaccines available for Coronavirus infections, including for SARS and MERS:






Feel reassured now? Not for lack of trying I might add.

Vaccines against viruses are possible as we have them for various flu strains. Corona viruses are different, but the fact that there are around 80 different ÇOVID 19 vaccine projects on the go currently suggests thst the professionals think it is feasible - the question is probably more one of timing.

It is more likely that there will be anti-viral treatments available before a vaccine is available:
https://healthline.com/health-news/heres-exactly-where-were-at-with-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19
Some of these already exist but clearly need to be assessed.

I would expect there to be a lot of activity in the vaccine labs right now, because let’s face it: the world is shovelling money at them in unprecedented amounts in the hope they’ll get lucky. And all those labs want to find it, because the one (company) that does will be trillionaires overnight. They mean well, and I wish them well. I just don’t believe your exit strategy should depend on such a slim possibility of success.

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

0.15% of the population of New York City have died of coronavirus in a month.

Makes me a bit wary of that study which says the mortality rate might only be 0.12%.

What is the level of obesity for New York City?

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

Wheelspinner said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

Well, I don’t, in a practical sense anyway.

Find a vaccine in few months that works really effectively and maybe it is. Chances of that actually happening are somewhere between slim and SFA.

Here’s a list of all the vaccines available for Coronavirus infections, including for SARS and MERS:






Feel reassured now? Not for lack of trying I might add.

Vaccines against viruses are possible as we have them for various flu strains. Corona viruses are different, but the fact that there are around 80 different ÇOVID 19 vaccine projects on the go currently suggests thst the professionals think it is feasible - the question is probably more one of timing.

It is more likely that there will be anti-viral treatments available before a vaccine is available:
https://healthline.com/health-news/heres-exactly-where-were-at-with-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19
Some of these already exist but clearly need to be assessed.

Not seen the front page of the guardian today presumably?

You know corona isn’t the flu? It’s a different type of virus.

nickice

Wheelspinner said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

Well, I don’t, in a practical sense anyway.

Find a vaccine in few months that works really effectively and maybe it is. Chances of that actually happening are somewhere between slim and SFA.

Here’s a list of all the vaccines available for Coronavirus infections, including for SARS and MERS:






Feel reassured now? Not for lack of trying I might add.

They gave up on a SARS vaccine as they had effectively eradicated it. MERS is so rare it's not worth the investment

kingstongraham

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

0.15% of the population of New York City have died of coronavirus in a month.

Makes me a bit wary of that study which says the mortality rate might only be 0.12%.

What is the level of obesity for New York City?

Slightly below the US average, I believe.

I'll repeat, it has killed 0.15% of THE POPULATION of New York City in a month.

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

0.15% of the population of New York City have died of coronavirus in a month.

Makes me a bit wary of that study which says the mortality rate might only be 0.12%.

What is the level of obesity for New York City?

Slightly below the US average, I believe.

I'll repeat, it has killed 0.15% of THE POPULATION of New York City in a month.

And that is a pointless number without taking into account other factors eg Obesity, pollution, BAME and others

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

0.15% of the population of New York City have died of coronavirus in a month.

Makes me a bit wary of that study which says the mortality rate might only be 0.12%.

What is the level of obesity for New York City?

Slightly below the US average, I believe.

I'll repeat, it has killed 0.15% of THE POPULATION of New York City in a month.

Also, how does that stat stack up against the stats from the French carrier Charles de Gaulle?

Wheelspinner

nickice said:

Wheelspinner said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I'm not sure anyone disagrees with this.

Well, I don’t, in a practical sense anyway.

Find a vaccine in few months that works really effectively and maybe it is. Chances of that actually happening are somewhere between slim and SFA.

Here’s a list of all the vaccines available for Coronavirus infections, including for SARS and MERS:






Feel reassured now? Not for lack of trying I might add.

They gave up on a SARS vaccine as they had effectively eradicated it. MERS is so rare it's not worth the investment

“They gave up....”. That’s a clue. Studies continued for several years after the original outbreak to develop a suitable vaccine for Coronavirus type viruses but none were found that were usable.

I’m not arguing that a vaccine isn’t the [ideal] solution, to enable a return to whatever normal looks like.

Another issue will be suddenly finding a bunch of qualified people to actually *do* the research work. Sure, re-prioritise the existing people where you can but to suddenly remove expert resource from all the current programs of trials and clinical work has plenty of risk involved.