The big Coronavirus thread

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Comments

  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Jezyboy said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Read somewhere we passed the 200K deaths milestone... that's quite some number!

    Would be great to see the excess death charts to see if many of them were “taken early” so deaths should now be low
    Also, the different ways of counting deaths will start to diverge, so the died within 28 days of a covid test stat may be much larger than excess deaths. We @kingstongraham to crunch the numbers.
    agree ( :o ) that there are so many positive and negative factors that excess deaths are the only way of getting a true picture.

    I can't decide if I think 200,000 over 2.5 years is a big or small number
    It's a reasonable number in comparison with total deaths per single non pandemic year.

    Wikipedia reckons 250,000 died of the Spanish Flu in the UK.
    Yeahbbut, no vaccines, no NHS... basically we spent billions to perform in a similar way to 100 years earlier
    You give scientists a bad name sometimes. Your definition of "similar" is a factor of 5.

    It is a spurious comparison anyway, between entirely unrelated pathogens.
    2.5 at best... population was half of today. I seem to remember from reading somewhere that the mortality was about the same as the original Wuhan virus, give or take 0.5-1%
    left the forum March 2023
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    ugo.santalucia said:


    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Jezyboy said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Read somewhere we passed the 200K deaths milestone... that's quite some number!

    Would be great to see the excess death charts to see if many of them were “taken early” so deaths should now be low
    Also, the different ways of counting deaths will start to diverge, so the died within 28 days of a covid test stat may be much larger than excess deaths. We @kingstongraham to crunch the numbers.
    agree ( :o ) that there are so many positive and negative factors that excess deaths are the only way of getting a true picture.

    I can't decide if I think 200,000 over 2.5 years is a big or small number
    It's a reasonable number in comparison with total deaths per single non pandemic year.

    Wikipedia reckons 250,000 died of the Spanish Flu in the UK.
    Yeahbbut, no vaccines, no NHS... basically we spent billions to perform in a similar way to 100 years earlier
    You give scientists a bad name sometimes. Your definition of "similar" is a factor of 5.

    It is a spurious comparison anyway, between entirely unrelated pathogens.
    2.5 at best... population was half of today. I seem to remember from reading somewhere that the mortality was about the same as the original Wuhan virus, give or take 0.5-1%
    Population was about 40million, and it was a shorter pandemic (I think)
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,710
    Flu & covid booster for over-50s in the autumn....

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/15/over-50s-in-england-to-be-offered-covid-booster-and-flu-jab-in-autumn
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    What's the booster going to be for though? Still the original strain? Woshbtheyd get their skates on and get a broad spectrum vaccine approved.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,710
    First.Aspect said:

    What's the booster going to be for though? Still the original strain? Woshbtheyd get their skates on and get a broad spectrum vaccine approved.


    Well, quite. Maybe something will turn up...
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    Like for the flu?
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    Long term I'm optimistic that the research into vaccines based on other part of the virus, i.e. the shell rather than the spike, will bear fruit. These regions don't change anywhere close to as fast.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,710
    shirley_basso said:

    Like for the flu?


    I think that's a slightly different lottery on whether they guess the right variants: if they get it right, it's a good degree of protection. OTOH, I don't think they've yet come up with a vaccine that will stop the latest omicron variants in their tracks at all, even if they guess the right variant.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,325
    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:


    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Jezyboy said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Read somewhere we passed the 200K deaths milestone... that's quite some number!

    Would be great to see the excess death charts to see if many of them were “taken early” so deaths should now be low
    Also, the different ways of counting deaths will start to diverge, so the died within 28 days of a covid test stat may be much larger than excess deaths. We @kingstongraham to crunch the numbers.
    agree ( :o ) that there are so many positive and negative factors that excess deaths are the only way of getting a true picture.

    I can't decide if I think 200,000 over 2.5 years is a big or small number
    It's a reasonable number in comparison with total deaths per single non pandemic year.

    Wikipedia reckons 250,000 died of the Spanish Flu in the UK.
    Yeahbbut, no vaccines, no NHS... basically we spent billions to perform in a similar way to 100 years earlier
    You give scientists a bad name sometimes. Your definition of "similar" is a factor of 5.

    It is a spurious comparison anyway, between entirely unrelated pathogens.
    2.5 at best... population was half of today. I seem to remember from reading somewhere that the mortality was about the same as the original Wuhan virus, give or take 0.5-1%
    Population was about 40million, and it was a shorter pandemic (I think)
    Point is, they had nothing... drugs in 1918 were pretty much inexistent. I would expect at least an order of magnitude difference between the two events, in terms of deaths per 1000 population, instead we are looking at very similar figures. That's why I say BJ didn't even get the big calls right.
    left the forum March 2023
  • masjer
    masjer Posts: 2,726
    Comparing death rates between two different viruses in different eras, probably won’t give you anything meaningful.
    Obesity and old age are amongst the biggest factors determining death rate from covid and flu. Given a higher proportion of old and overweight/obese people (often living with ongoing medical conditions) are living today, probably offsets death rates, despite vaccines and better drugs.

    BJ certainly made errors early on.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,710
    masjer said:

    Comparing death rates between two different viruses in different eras, probably won’t give you anything meaningful.
    Obesity and old age are amongst the biggest factors determining death rate from covid and flu. Given a higher proportion of old and overweight/obese people (often living with ongoing medical conditions) are living today, probably offsets death rates, despite vaccines and better drugs.

    BJ certainly made errors early on.


    And a much lower proportion of 'very old' people back then too would skew the figures. I still remember that the average age of death of men when I was at primary school was 67, I think.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,710

    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,610
    Basically when the State Pension was set up after WWII, male life expectancy was 64, and SPA was 65........
    Now a 65 yo male can expect to live to around 88, if a southerner, and has a 1 in 4 chance of hitting 100.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Dorset_Boy said:

    Basically when the State Pension was set up after WWII, male life expectancy was 64, and SPA was 65........
    Now a 65 yo male can expect to live to around 88, if a southerner, and has a 1 in 4 chance of hitting 100.

    If a politician can get through parliament a link between the pension age and life expectancy they deserve a Nobel prize?
    _
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    I reckon there will be further rises to the State pension age beyond those already in the pipeline (which takes us to 68 currently).
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,717
    I pretty much have assumed and come to terms with the reality that I'm working until 70+...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Yep, I haven’t really paid much attention to the current age I’m able to claim pension. I fully anticipate it moving once or twice between now and then.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Although I do have to laugh at my mum.
    She ended up taking early retirement at about my current age due to ill health and my dad was required to retire from his job at 60. Having looked at other options to take another role, he opted not to.

    When I suggested I had been considering a 3 day week, she informed me I was too young to consider that. TBH, it was only a light hearted thought from me after the short jubilee week but I thought she was being bloody cheeky.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    morstar said:

    Yep, I haven’t really paid much attention to the current age I’m able to claim pension. I fully anticipate it moving once or twice between now and then.

    I think you may be OK in terms of no further movement for you (or me) but the starting age may well move up for future generations. Here's the current state of play:
    https://gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-age-timetable/state-pension-age-timetable
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Stevo_666 said:

    morstar said:

    Yep, I haven’t really paid much attention to the current age I’m able to claim pension. I fully anticipate it moving once or twice between now and then.

    I think you may be OK in terms of no further movement for you (or me) but the starting age may well move up for future generations. Here's the current state of play:
    https://gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-age-timetable/state-pension-age-timetable
    Thank you, but do you genuinely not conceive of it moving again during the next 15.5 years (for me anyway)? I do.
    Although tbh, the state pension won't be the defining factor of my retirement age but, you get the gist.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    I'm more curious about how relevant I can keep my skills as I get older. Right now, i'm at a sweet spot of being quite an innovative tech user coupled with lots of business experience.
    I flip between thinking I can keep going and reckoning in another 10 years, I'll be relying on past glories. Tbh, there's so many idiots in business, I think I will have tonnes to offer but can I keep convincing people of that or retain the hunger? The tools change but there are few actual differences in the behaviours that need developing and managing. Most SMB's are fundamentally simple and the challenges haven't changed in my time.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    morstar said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    morstar said:

    Yep, I haven’t really paid much attention to the current age I’m able to claim pension. I fully anticipate it moving once or twice between now and then.

    I think you may be OK in terms of no further movement for you (or me) but the starting age may well move up for future generations. Here's the current state of play:
    https://gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-age-timetable/state-pension-age-timetable
    Thank you, but do you genuinely not conceive of it moving again during the next 15.5 years (for me anyway)? I do.
    Although tbh, the state pension won't be the defining factor of my retirement age but, you get the gist.
    My understanding is that they may stretch it to 69 or 70 for those born later (as life expectancy grows): the problem with 'fixing' a state pension age for those who are not that far off retiring then moving moving the goalposts are that they mess up people's plans and and p1ss off voters.

    Likewise, state pension will not determine my retirement age, it will be a useful annual bonus.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    morstar said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    morstar said:

    Yep, I haven’t really paid much attention to the current age I’m able to claim pension. I fully anticipate it moving once or twice between now and then.

    I think you may be OK in terms of no further movement for you (or me) but the starting age may well move up for future generations. Here's the current state of play:
    https://gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-age-timetable/state-pension-age-timetable
    Thank you, but do you genuinely not conceive of it moving again during the next 15.5 years (for me anyway)? I do.
    Although tbh, the state pension won't be the defining factor of my retirement age but, you get the gist.
    My understanding is that they may stretch it to 69 or 70 for those born later (as life expectancy grows): the problem with 'fixing' a state pension age for those who are not that far off retiring then moving moving the goalposts are that they mess up people's plans and and p1ss off voters.

    Likewise, state pension will not determine my retirement age, it will be a useful annual bonus.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,808
    morstar said:

    I'm more curious about how relevant I can keep my skills as I get older. Right now, i'm at a sweet spot of being quite an innovative tech user coupled with lots of business experience.
    I flip between thinking I can keep going and reckoning in another 10 years, I'll be relying on past glories. Tbh, there's so many idiots in business, I think I will have tonnes to offer but can I keep convincing people of that or retain the hunger? The tools change but there are few actual differences in the behaviours that need developing and managing. Most SMB's are fundamentally simple and the challenges haven't changed in my time.

    Currently there doesn't seem to be any shortage of demand in your area and quite a few others, so if that continues the rise of the older worker will probably continue. Either way, ride the wave now as you never know what will happen in 10 years or so.

    I have the advantage of dealing with one of the two certs in life and one where age doesn't seem to be too much of a downer. Just need to stay hungry, healthy and youthful in attitude (relatively).
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,593
    morstar said:

    I'm more curious about how relevant I can keep my skills as I get older. Right now, i'm at a sweet spot of being quite an innovative tech user coupled with lots of business experience.
    I flip between thinking I can keep going and reckoning in another 10 years, I'll be relying on past glories. Tbh, there's so many idiots in business, I think I will have tonnes to offer but can I keep convincing people of that or retain the hunger? The tools change but there are few actual differences in the behaviours that need developing and managing. Most SMB's are fundamentally simple and the challenges haven't changed in my time.

    I've been a bit like that and started de-skilling over the last few years in some of the more technical elements as I've taken a more management role and left the technical stuff to more junior engineers. I'm moving somewhere smaller again soon though where I will be back doing the hands on stuff. I don't want to end up like an old boss of mine who had all the knowledge but had to rely on others to do the work as he was a pen and ink engineer in a CAD world.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Pross said:

    morstar said:

    I'm more curious about how relevant I can keep my skills as I get older. Right now, i'm at a sweet spot of being quite an innovative tech user coupled with lots of business experience.
    I flip between thinking I can keep going and reckoning in another 10 years, I'll be relying on past glories. Tbh, there's so many idiots in business, I think I will have tonnes to offer but can I keep convincing people of that or retain the hunger? The tools change but there are few actual differences in the behaviours that need developing and managing. Most SMB's are fundamentally simple and the challenges haven't changed in my time.

    I've been a bit like that and started de-skilling over the last few years in some of the more technical elements as I've taken a more management role and left the technical stuff to more junior engineers. I'm moving somewhere smaller again soon though where I will be back doing the hands on stuff. I don't want to end up like an old boss of mine who had all the knowledge but had to rely on others to do the work as he was a pen and ink engineer in a CAD world.
    It’s interesting territory. I made a conscious decision about 5 years ago to focus on the skills I’d gained in the prior 3 years rather than stay in a well paid leadership role where those skills were effectively going to be written off following sale of the business.
    I definitely get satisfaction from being close to the products I use and seeing opportunities to drive efficiencies through their uptake.
    Right now I’ve got in demand skills rather than being a generic manager. Most of the time, I think it’s the right decision. Sometimes constant learning feels like a battle though.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,655
    Well Covid caught up with me. Woke up with a scratchy throat on Friday, then had an extremely faint line on a LFT.

    Felt absolutely empty on Saturday, bit better on Sunday and middling today.

    Headache, sore throat, muscle soreness and general fragile feeling seem to be the main symptoms.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,379
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/27/uk-scientists-take-promising-step-towards-single-covid-and-cold-vaccine?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,108
    Late to the party - tested positive for the first time - could at least have coincided with a grand tour. Really strong lines straight away on the test.

    Feels like mild flu - tired,bit of a sore throat, mild headache, cough and runny nose.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,710
    DeVlaeminck said:

    Late to the party - tested positive for the first time - could at least have coincided with a grand tour. Really strong lines straight away on the test.

    Feels like mild flu - tired,bit of a sore throat, mild headache, cough and runny nose.

    DeVlaeminck said:

    Late to the party - tested positive for the first time - could at least have coincided with a grand tour. Really strong lines straight away on the test.

    Feels like mild flu - tired,bit of a sore throat, mild headache, cough and runny nose.

    GWS. Hopefully it doesn't hang around as it does with some people. Mine was mild enough I'd have gone into work if it had been 'just a cold' and if it weren't for the LFT.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois

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