The big Coronavirus thread

First.Aspect

The numbers between UK nations clearly show the study is rubbish, because everyone knows that Scotland did better than the Tories. Sorry, I mean, England.

kingstongraham

Down the line, it looks like lots of countries have looked at the havoc it's wrecked in other countries and thought "well it hasn't done that here yet, we don't need to worry so much about it".

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

it is difficult to get your head around the fact that any measures including speed of vaccinations made no difference.

I wonder if in the UK eg the scale of deaths made the vaccine roll out more effective and that is why when the fear factor wore off it tailed off.

Yes, I suspect the UK did well with vaccines because Alpha was spreading rapidly. I also suspect the UK probably could have done better in the first wave, so this offset the vaccines.

Nonetheless Sweden doing same as its neighbours is a turn up for the books.

Haven't had a chance to look at the report, but I do recall there being very marked differences in excess mortality across different countries as reported on the EUROMOMO website.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

Down the line, it looks like lots of countries have looked at the havoc it's wrecked in other countries and thought "well it hasn't done that here yet, we don't need to worry so much about it".

One argument is that the best controls were put in place by scared populations and not by governments. The inverse of this is probably also true in that complacent populations got carried away.

kingstongraham

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Down the line, it looks like lots of countries have looked at the havoc it's wrecked in other countries and thought "well it hasn't done that here yet, we don't need to worry so much about it".

One argument is that the best controls were put in place by scared populations and not by governments. The inverse of this is probably also true in that complacent populations got carried away.

Probably true - being scared before the wave of death was the sweet spot.

rjsterry

Not sure Sweden was that similar to its neighbours.

rjsterry

Meanwhile, it's all going horribly wrong in Hong Kong.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420660869214213?t=Y0CI3o_iYGwC3iASvjh_VA&s=19

surrey_commuter

kingstongraham said:

I'm a bit confused by Denmark - they look to have thrown away a very good position. Did they have low vaccine take up?

This is a graph of the official figures for percentage monthly excess deaths from the EU website for Denmark and Sweden for 2020 and 2021. From April 2021 they had consistently higher numbers.



We threw our advantage away right at the start rather than waiting for a year before doing it.

would be interesting to see what that looks like a year's time as at the moment it seems to support the bringing deaths forward theory

briantrumpet

rjsterry said:

Meanwhile, it's all going horribly wrong in Hong Kong.

Yes, that's going to be carnage... it's going to prove how even omicron is not "no worse than the flu", and what an amazing job vaccines have done.

wallace_and_gromit

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

blazing_saddles

I seem to recall at the time, some folks saying it would be several years before the differing Scandinavian approaches could be judged.

Stevo_666

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Your narrative that lots of people were saying we were doing terribly at everything covid simply isn't true.

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Your narrative that lots of people were saying we were doing terribly at everything covid simply isn't true.

In fairness he says the "earlier phases"

Nobody in their right mind would think the UK handled it anything other than terribly so seems a bit of strange to criticise people for pointing that out

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Your narrative that lots of people were saying we were doing terribly at everything covid simply isn't true.

I didn't say how many people - there are a few examples who I'm sure you will recall though. They might have more sofas than the average UK household.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

We were, and a lot were handling it better. Some of them fuxxing it up later doesn't really change that.

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Your narrative that lots of people were saying we were doing terribly at everything covid simply isn't true.

I didn't say how many people - there are a few examples who I'm sure you will recall though. They might have more sofas than the average UK household.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt (since the weather was lovely today for a bike ride, and I'm in a good mood), though if by "all those", you really meant "one or two" (or even one), you might concede that most of us had a bit more nuance in our assessments, even if we did come down hard on those bits the UK did get wrong.

kingstongraham

The interesting bits in that study aren't to do with the UK being decidedly average.

john80

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

I think the narrative on here is that the UK could have done some things better (speed of locking down, people in power taking the mickey with regard to rule-following), but that some things were done well (vaccine roll-out, not going draconian with omicron). I've said all along that it's going to take ages for all the data to be analysed properly and conclusions to be drawn, given there are billions and billions of data points, and so many variables. It's probably going to take years, and even then won't ever be 'complete'.

The Lancet report is part of that analysis. What it should not be used for is covering up poor decisions (which pretty much every country has done, in one way or another), or for saying all approaches would have had the same outcome in all circumstances.

One man's poor decisions is one that is another's good decision.

kingstongraham

Wise words indeed.

rjsterry

kingstongraham said:

I'm a bit confused by Denmark - they look to have thrown away a very good position. Did they have low vaccine take up?

This is a graph of the official figures for percentage monthly excess deaths from the EU website for Denmark and Sweden for 2020 and 2021. From April 2021 they had consistently higher numbers.



We threw our advantage away right at the start rather than waiting for a year before doing it.

Not sure why that graph is so crude when there is finer detail available. Here's roughly the same period from Euromomo. If a lot of people cop it in the first wave they aren't around to catch the second or third wave and the ones that survived are likely to be the ones who would survive anyway. Denmark having a worse early '22 does not mean Sweden were right in 2020.

pangolin

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Your narrative that lots of people were saying we were doing terribly at everything covid simply isn't true.

I didn't say how many people - there are a few examples who I'm sure you will recall though. They might have more sofas than the average UK household.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt (since the weather was lovely today for a bike ride, and I'm in a good mood), though if by "all those", you really meant "one or two" (or even one), you might concede that most of us had a bit more nuance in our assessments, even if we did come down hard on those bits the UK did get wrong.

Makes you wonder why people weren't keen to reopen this discussion. Hmmmmmm.

pangolin

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Need ddraver's irony meter for this haha

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

The interesting bits in that study aren't to do with the UK being decidedly average.

I'm intrigued by what happened to Germany.

kingstongraham

rjsterry said:

kingstongraham said:

I'm a bit confused by Denmark - they look to have thrown away a very good position. Did they have low vaccine take up?

This is a graph of the official figures for percentage monthly excess deaths from the EU website for Denmark and Sweden for 2020 and 2021. From April 2021 they had consistently higher numbers.



We threw our advantage away right at the start rather than waiting for a year before doing it.

Not sure why that graph is so crude when there is finer detail available. Here's roughly the same period from Euromomo. If a lot of people cop it in the first wave they aren't around to catch the second or third wave and the ones that survived are likely to be the ones who would survive anyway. Denmark having a worse early '22 does not mean Sweden were right in 2020.

I took the percentage excess deaths number for each month and did a graph in excel.

I saw those euromomo graphs but I can't work out what they actually mean.

It doesn't mean that sweden was right about everything, but it might change the calculations of cost/benefit somewhat.

And obviously it's good those people lived another year plus.

Jezyboy

I thought the whole analysis needed the economic analysis too?

I think most posters have said how well the vaccination roll out went. But what a lot of people ignore is that those sharply descending graphs at the start of 2021 were all lockdown related, rather than roll out.

kingstongraham

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420714711457793?t=bB5ID5DfwDmclCMRys9BIw&s=19

Stevo_666

pangolin said:

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Need ddraver's irony meter for this haha

That would be a bit predictable. I think even Raver has got tired of using that.

Stevo_666

pangolin said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Stevo_666 said:

TheBigBean said:

I know everyone has moved on to being Ukraine experts, but I'm intrigued by how little discussion there has been about the paper on excess deaths.

Possibly because it didn't fit in with the narrative on here?

Naughty!

It's plausible, after all those who spent a lot of energy in the earlier phases of the pandemic shouting about how terribly we were handling it and and how almost any other country was doing it better are hardly likely to welcome a report that shows they were, at least to some extent, talking bollox.

Your narrative that lots of people were saying we were doing terribly at everything covid simply isn't true.

I didn't say how many people - there are a few examples who I'm sure you will recall though. They might have more sofas than the average UK household.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt (since the weather was lovely today for a bike ride, and I'm in a good mood), though if by "all those", you really meant "one or two" (or even one), you might concede that most of us had a bit more nuance in our assessments, even if we did come down hard on those bits the UK did get wrong.

Makes you wonder why people weren't keen to reopen this discussion. Hmmmmmm.

Possibly because they were talking bollox?

rjsterry

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

kingstongraham said:

I'm a bit confused by Denmark - they look to have thrown away a very good position. Did they have low vaccine take up?

This is a graph of the official figures for percentage monthly excess deaths from the EU website for Denmark and Sweden for 2020 and 2021. From April 2021 they had consistently higher numbers.



We threw our advantage away right at the start rather than waiting for a year before doing it.

Not sure why that graph is so crude when there is finer detail available. Here's roughly the same period from Euromomo. If a lot of people cop it in the first wave they aren't around to catch the second or third wave and the ones that survived are likely to be the ones who would survive anyway. Denmark having a worse early '22 does not mean Sweden were right in 2020.

I took the percentage excess deaths number for each month and did a graph in excel.

I saw those euromomo graphs but I can't work out what they actually mean.

It doesn't mean that sweden was right about everything, but it might change the calculations of cost/benefit somewhat.

And obviously it's good those people lived another year plus.

Ah, I forgot you do your own graphs. They are showing broadly the same thing as your graph, but your y axis is percentage whereas theirs is standard deviations. I think.

I think there is a possibility that having a bad first wave has more of an impact on public behaviour whereas getting that first bit right breeds some complacency.