The big Coronavirus thread

First.Aspect

wallace_and_gromit said:

First.Aspect said:

Stop press news: UK returns to previous levels of sluggish growth sooner than expected.

Not quite (to be diplomatic).

GDP is an absolute figure. The UK’s gdp in November was above the pre-pandemic gdp. So that is a comparison of absolute numbers.

Growth is the rate of change of gdp. FWIW, November’s growth was 0.9%, which equates to an annual growth rate in excess of 10%, way in excess of the long term trend.

Monthly gdp growth stats aren’t helpful at the moment though as there are all sorts of pandemic-specific one-offs affecting the economy.

That was exactly my point. Underlying trends disguised by larger and unrelated factors.

rick_chasey

A full recovery is when it returns to where trend would be 👍🏻

First.Aspect

And if you think November's growth rate is anything other than taking the dust sheets off bits of the economy you are deluded. I am sure that's not what you meant, though.

pblakeney

First.Aspect said:

Stop press news: UK returns to previous levels of sluggish growth sooner than expected.

This was my thinking.
As I recall we were discussing how poorly things were going before Covid took over.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2020/january-2020/the-economic-outlook

First.Aspect

pblakeney said:

First.Aspect said:

Stop press news: UK returns to previous levels of sluggish growth sooner than expected.

This was my thinking.
As I recall we were discussing how poorly things were going before Covid took over.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2020/january-2020/the-economic-outlook

[Tory] la la la I'm not listening [/Tory]

surrey_commuter

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Nov 21 GDP above Feb 20 GDP.

Let's have a party. BYOB.

Make it quick as it is forecast to fall back in Dec and Jan

kingstonian

Case numbers down again on Sunday.

briantrumpet

kingstonian said:

Case numbers down again on Sunday.

David Spiegelhalter cautioning that part of this might well be because of stopping confirmatory PCR tests, so relying on people uploading their LFTs, but even so, I think we've well and truly turned the corner. Virtually none at my school, even after two weeks back.

surrey_commuter

so I got my positive result back late Saturday 8th and yet track and trace say my last day of self isolation is the 17th unless I do do negative tests.

Despite having o symptons for 4 days I keep testing positive so according to Boris's rules does that mean I can do whatever I like tomorrow?

Ben6899

What's the current rule?

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

so I got my positive result back late Saturday 8th and yet track and trace say my last day of self isolation is the 17th unless I do do negative tests.

Despite having o symptons for 4 days I keep testing positive so according to Boris's rules does that mean I can do whatever I like tomorrow?

It would appear so.

"From today, the minimum self-isolation period for people testing positive for Covid-19 in England has been cut to five full days.

But people must have negative lateral flow tests on days five and six of their isolation.

Those who still test positive must stay in isolation until they have had two negative tests taken on consecutive days, or after 10 days."

DeVlaeminck

I was talking to someone yesterday whose sister is still testing positive a month after first infection - no symptoms since the first week or so - she just isolated for 10 days.

First.Aspect

briantrumpet said:

kingstonian said:

Case numbers down again on Sunday.

David Spiegelhalter cautioning that part of this might well be because of stopping confirmatory PCR tests, so relying on people uploading their LFTs, but even so, I think we've well and truly turned the corner. Virtually none at my school, even after two weeks back.

The corner you need to be watching is is hospital admissions. It is the only metric that isn't influenced by the ever changing testing numbers and policies.

That seems to be peaking just about now. The UK wide numbers disguise that hospital admissions are falling in London but still rising elsewhere.

DeVlaeminck

"You can stop self-isolating after the 10 days if either:

you do not have any symptoms
you just have a cough or changes to your sense of smell or taste – these can last for weeks after the infection has gone.
You do not need to do any more rapid lateral flow tests after day 10 of your self-isolation period."

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

so I got my positive result back late Saturday 8th and yet track and trace say my last day of self isolation is the 17th unless I do do negative tests.

Despite having o symptons for 4 days I keep testing positive so according to Boris's rules does that mean I can do whatever I like tomorrow?

How was it?

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

so I got my positive result back late Saturday 8th and yet track and trace say my last day of self isolation is the 17th unless I do do negative tests.

Despite having o symptons for 4 days I keep testing positive so according to Boris's rules does that mean I can do whatever I like tomorrow?

How was it?

absolutely fine, the equivaent of a minor cold

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

so I got my positive result back late Saturday 8th and yet track and trace say my last day of self isolation is the 17th unless I do do negative tests.

Despite having o symptons for 4 days I keep testing positive so according to Boris's rules does that mean I can do whatever I like tomorrow?

It would appear so.

"From today, the minimum self-isolation period for people testing positive for Covid-19 in England has been cut to five full days.

But people must have negative lateral flow tests on days five and six of their isolation.

Those who still test positive must stay in isolation until they have had two negative tests taken on consecutive days, or after 10 days."

many thanks

That does seem a bit anti-social so I think I will minimise contacts inside

TheBigBean

The rest of my family tested positve this morning. Not sure my chances are good given that one has spent the best of part of 36 hours sleeping and vomiting on me.

briantrumpet

First.Aspect said:

briantrumpet said:

kingstonian said:

Case numbers down again on Sunday.

David Spiegelhalter cautioning that part of this might well be because of stopping confirmatory PCR tests, so relying on people uploading their LFTs, but even so, I think we've well and truly turned the corner. Virtually none at my school, even after two weeks back.

The corner you need to be watching is is hospital admissions. It is the only metric that isn't influenced by the ever changing testing numbers and policies.

That seems to be peaking just about now. The UK wide numbers disguise that hospital admissions are falling in London but still rising elsewhere.

Indeed.

Actually, looking at the number of tests being recorded, the numbers are still holding up pretty well despite PCRs being fewer.

DeVlaeminck

You'd think that but I had similar - well not being vomited on - over Xmas and stayed clear.

Thing is I'm not sure the 10-12 days isolating myself and constantly opening the back door whenever one of them entered the kitchen when it was freezing outside wasn't worse than getting Covid.

TheBigBean

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

First.Aspect

briantrumpet said:

First.Aspect said:

briantrumpet said:

kingstonian said:

Case numbers down again on Sunday.

David Spiegelhalter cautioning that part of this might well be because of stopping confirmatory PCR tests, so relying on people uploading their LFTs, but even so, I think we've well and truly turned the corner. Virtually none at my school, even after two weeks back.

The corner you need to be watching is is hospital admissions. It is the only metric that isn't influenced by the ever changing testing numbers and policies.

That seems to be peaking just about now. The UK wide numbers disguise that hospital admissions are falling in London but still rising elsewhere.

Indeed.

Actually, looking at the number of tests being recorded, the numbers are still holding up pretty well despite PCRs being fewer.

There are reinfections and the accuracy of the lateral flows to consider as well.

In the next two weeks things will be more positive on all counts though, I think.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

Whilst I don't know anybody who would rush out and get it I do know a lot of people with Covid envy.

Keep an eye out for a raging thirst as that seems to be an unreporting leading indicator

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

Whilst I don't know anybody who would rush out and get it I do know a lot of people with Covid envy.

Keep an eye out for a raging thirst as that seems to be an unreporting leading indicator

The annoying thing is that if I am positve in 7 days, then it will be another week of isolation while the rest of my family will be going wild.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

Whilst I don't know anybody who would rush out and get it I do know a lot of people with Covid envy.

Keep an eye out for a raging thirst as that seems to be an unreporting leading indicator

The annoying thing is that if I am positve in 7 days, then it will be another week of isolation while the rest of my family will be going wild.

that is why I rushed out to get a PCR though that has not helped as they have all gone wild whilst I pile up the positive tests

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

Whilst I don't know anybody who would rush out and get it I do know a lot of people with Covid envy.

Keep an eye out for a raging thirst as that seems to be an unreporting leading indicator

The annoying thing is that if I am positve in 7 days, then it will be another week of isolation while the rest of my family will be going wild.

that is why I rushed out to get a PCR though that has not helped as they have all gone wild whilst I pile up the positive tests

How does a PCR test help? I thought the clock counted from the first symptom or test?

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

Whilst I don't know anybody who would rush out and get it I do know a lot of people with Covid envy.

Keep an eye out for a raging thirst as that seems to be an unreporting leading indicator

The annoying thing is that if I am positve in 7 days, then it will be another week of isolation while the rest of my family will be going wild.

that is why I rushed out to get a PCR though that has not helped as they have all gone wild whilst I pile up the positive tests

How does a PCR test help? I thought the clock counted from the first symptom or test?

PCR is more sensitive so will trigger a result sooner- or so the theory goes

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

Whilst I don't know anybody who would rush out and get it I do know a lot of people with Covid envy.

Keep an eye out for a raging thirst as that seems to be an unreporting leading indicator

The annoying thing is that if I am positve in 7 days, then it will be another week of isolation while the rest of my family will be going wild.

that is why I rushed out to get a PCR though that has not helped as they have all gone wild whilst I pile up the positive tests

How does a PCR test help? I thought the clock counted from the first symptom or test?

PCR is more sensitive so will trigger a result sooner- or so the theory goes

Ah got it. I have a PCR test on its way, so maybe I will be in luck of sorts. I do kind of understand how some people may choose to ignore it - one kid is already completely fine, but won't be at school for a week. Obviously, I'm not that irresponsible.

Dorset_Boy

Looks like France introducing a requirement for sports competitors to be vaccinated if they want to compete in France.

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

I may be foolish, but I'm not taking any precautions. My face is currently about 6 inches from a covid face. I guess it is one of those parental sacrifices. On the plus side, I'm happy she is no longer 40 degrees as that wasn't fun.

Eek. That is very warm. Glad she's improving. A friend who we met briefly on Saturday has tested positive this morning, but we don't seem to have picked it up so far.