The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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skyblueamateur said:
A lot of people I know have tested negative on LFT's even after a positive PCR. I read it's to do with the viral load being shed. It's not an ideal situation for all but that's always the case.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!1 -
Better than the day before I suppose.tailwindhome said:
4 days later ....positive LFTtailwindhome said:
Miraculously negative.tailwindhome said:3 positives in my daughter's circle of friends at uni.
So far she's negative, but due another pcr in the morning
Collected this morning in 'The last SUV out of Queens'
LFTs give more false negatives than false positives, and it you do test positive it is highly likely you have it.
Interestingly I was speaking to a client in a republican part of the US and they are being told exactly the opposite, i.e. if they test negative the probably do t have it, but there are a lot of false positives so dobt worry too much.
It is almost as though US politicians *want* everyone to catch and spread it.0 -
Possibly so, but lower virulence doesn't necessarily mean "nothing's changed". With lower virulence, high vaccine escape and massive numbers, it could still end up bad. Or not.rick_chasey said:
Fraser Nelson is being deliberately stupid. Let me paraphrase the logic in a more relatable example, Fraser Nelson trying to get a loankingstongraham said:
Fair dos.TheBigBean said:
I don't think that is true as when they were modelling the decline of delta, a fundamental part was how quickly the public would resume normal behaviour. At the time, there were very few restrictions.kingstongraham said:
It's ignored by the modelling, I think. If there is no policy/advice changed, it's assumed people will blindly carry on the same. Which always ends up overstating the average number of contacts when numbers start rising and people decide they'd rather not catch it if possible, thanks.TheBigBean said:
This is a point @surrey_commuter has made since the start of the pandemic. On the basis that I nearly always disagree with him about everything, it is only fair to point out that I think he is right on this one.kingstongraham said:
I think behaviour change has been quite dramatic to avoid getting it before Christmas.rick_chasey said:Well with that and the SA stuff we may be in a position where this is the peak....which seems very counter intuitive.
So, I suspect it represents some sort of input to models, but that it is, at best, an educated guess.
The Fraser Nelson/Graham Medley twitter thing is interesting. I don't think Medley covered himself in glory with his explanation over twitter.
He said they don't model "nothing's different", but that wasn't the question Nelson was asking. Ends up looking like they are only trying to model bad outcomes.
This is half way through the exchange.
FN: I want a £50m mortgage
GM: We only lend up to 3x Salary
FN: People predict I am due a big pay rise, why are you choosing to ignore them?
GM: The underwriter doesn't use predictions, it uses a model
FN: YOU SHALL NOT HEAR THE LAST OF THI..
I don't understand why he said it wasn't modelled.0 -
briantrumpet said:skyblueamateur said:
A lot of people I know have tested negative on LFT's even after a positive PCR. I read it's to do with the viral load being shed. It's not an ideal situation for all but that's always the case.
For all the negative stuff about LFTs, even if they miss a proportion, they certainly do seem to have alerted a lot of people I know to their infection, to be followed up by PCR. Given how close current symptoms are to cold symptoms, they seem to have been really helpful in that respect. I suspect they will be a long term part of the armoury, even if the twice-a-week routine isn't the norm forever.
LFpositive : very likely you have covid19
LF negative: don’t bet granny’s life on it
PCR positive: positive, or have been in the last 3 months
Negative: very likely negative, or lab isn’t testing properly0 -
Tailwindhome, hope you've got everything in for Christmas already and it's not too much of a PITA.
Long term I wonder whether the modelling, and the use of it will be subject to more scrutiny - I'm going to assume that Graham Medley is explaining himself poorly in that twitter exchange.
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Not sure if it should go in here or the Brexit thread, but French-resident English friends coming back to England for Christmas report that on the 8am Calais-Dover ferry there was a total of two lorries and one car. I wonder what we are going to run out of over Christmas?0
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The lft and infectious period seem to line up suspiciously well there.tailwindhome said:skyblueamateur said:A lot of people I know have tested negative on LFT's even after a positive PCR. I read it's to do with the viral load being shed. It's not an ideal situation for all but that's always the case.
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Isn't that exactly what they're meant to be detecting though?Jezyboy said:
The lft and infectious period seem to line up suspiciously well there.tailwindhome said:skyblueamateur said:A lot of people I know have tested negative on LFT's even after a positive PCR. I read it's to do with the viral load being shed. It's not an ideal situation for all but that's always the case.
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- Dolan Tuono0 -
Trump was recently jeered for saying he had had a booster. The whole thing seems to have become tribal over there.First.Aspect said:
Better than the day before I suppose.tailwindhome said:
4 days later ....positive LFTtailwindhome said:
Miraculously negative.tailwindhome said:3 positives in my daughter's circle of friends at uni.
So far she's negative, but due another pcr in the morning
Collected this morning in 'The last SUV out of Queens'
LFTs give more false negatives than false positives, and it you do test positive it is highly likely you have it.
Interestingly I was speaking to a client in a republican part of the US and they are being told exactly the opposite, i.e. if they test negative the probably do t have it, but there are a lot of false positives so dobt worry too much.
It is almost as though US politicians *want* everyone to catch and spread it.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
You'd think after the 500k deaths model was so widely misinterpreted,Jezyboy said:
Long term I wonder whether the modelling, and the use of it will be subject to more scrutiny - I'm going to assume that Graham Medley is explaining himself poorly in that twitter exchange.
there would be more caution about how they use the figures.
Here's the right to reply.
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And fwiw, he's replying to randoms like me to explain that they actually did include that in the models.
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There was a phone in on Radio 5 earlier in the week where people could call in to ask a doctor about Covid testing. One woman called to say her daughter had symptoms so took LFT tests for several days all negative then got a positive so booked a PCR which confirmed it. The woman was querying whether the 10 days should run from the symptoms or PCR result. It was explained she should have straight for a PCR and the 10 days then goes from the symptoms starting but as they'd messed about for several days doing LFTs it should probably go from the PCR result instead as the symptoms may have been something else (which meant the isolation extended over Christmas).
They went on to explain that LFTs are good for general testing as they are only sensitive enough to record the levels of virus around the time a person is infectious. That's also why they are used for testing to end isolation, they will record a negative when the load drops below a likely infectious level whereas a PCR will continue showing positive way beyond that.0 -
When I looked at that first I thought you were Graham Medley. Was a bit worried about how much time SAGE was spending on the BR forum.kingstongraham said:And fwiw, he's replying to randoms like me to explain that they actually did include that in the models.
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Just done an LFT. My isolation ended at midnight on Saturday so I’m 3 days out and it was negative. So a case study of one but answered that question for me.0
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I thought it was interesting how he faced down the boosrjsterry said:
Trump was recently jeered for saying he had had a booster. The whole thing seems to have become tribal over there.First.Aspect said:
Better than the day before I suppose.tailwindhome said:
4 days later ....positive LFTtailwindhome said:
Miraculously negative.tailwindhome said:3 positives in my daughter's circle of friends at uni.
So far she's negative, but due another pcr in the morning
Collected this morning in 'The last SUV out of Queens'
LFTs give more false negatives than false positives, and it you do test positive it is highly likely you have it.
Interestingly I was speaking to a client in a republican part of the US and they are being told exactly the opposite, i.e. if they test negative the probably do t have it, but there are a lot of false positives so dobt worry too much.
It is almost as though US politicians *want* everyone to catch and spread it.
Confirmed he had been vaxxed and boosted“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Had a look at these graphs, and basically for all the models, and taking its assumptions about booster efficacy, I think it's saying any restrictions introduced in January will make no difference. Introducing modetate or severe restrictions on 26th December will make a difference according to the model. Mild restrictions (20% npi) make no difference. I don't know what measures constitute the 20% and 60% strength npi.kingstongraham said:And fwiw, he's replying to randoms like me to explain that they actually did include that in the models.
I'm not working today by the way...0 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59747689
"Germany announced that from 28 December limits would return that restrict private gatherings to 10 people and nightclubs would close. Football matches from that date will also be played behind closed doors.
"Coronavirus doesn't take a Christmas break," Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday.
"We cannot - and must not - close our eyes to this next wave, which is beginning to loom over us," he added."
Open your eyes, Olaf, Xmas comes before 28th!
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2016 Voodoo Wazoo0 -
In typical Germanic efficiency they are combining it with New Year.N0bodyOfTheGoat said:
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Open your eyes, Olaf, Xmas comes before 28th!
A bit silly to have 2 parties in a week when you can have one big party. 😉
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
There is no midnight on Saturday.johngti said:Just done an LFT. My isolation ended at midnight on Saturday so I’m 3 days out and it was negative. So a case study of one but answered that question for me.
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Thanks for the link to the response. Having read that and some of twitter exchanges, it does seem that some of the criticism is merited.kingstongraham said:
You'd think after the 500k deaths model was so widely misinterpreted,Jezyboy said:
Long term I wonder whether the modelling, and the use of it will be subject to more scrutiny - I'm going to assume that Graham Medley is explaining himself poorly in that twitter exchange.
there would be more caution about how they use the figures.
Here's the right to reply.0 -
Are any of the models available to the public?0
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Just done a LFT and it's negative - was really not expecting that given my wife is positive - although I did a zwift race Monday night and averaged 310 watts which for me currently is decent so I guess I wasn't suffering any illness then.
Have taken a PCR this morning ,- it's actually very awkward trying to avoid two Covid positives in the same house.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
This seems like a reasonably sensible strategy.In an article for the i, Jane Merrick suggests that whether or not new restrictions get imposed in England after Christmas could depend on whether Covid hospital admissions in London pass the 400-per-day mark. She explains:
Fresh restrictions in England after Christmas could be avoided if hospital admissions in London stay below 400 a day by the end of this week, i understands.
Ministers and scientific advisers are watching closely the number of Covid patients admitted to hospitals in the capital, as it is the leading edge of the Omicron wave and will provide some of the first real-world data on whether the variant is more severe in the UK ...
The latest figure for London admissions, from last Sunday 19 December is 245, and while the daily figure is rising, it has not increased as rapidly as Covid cases in London in the past two weeks.
While the figure of 400 is not a hard and fast threshold, it will provide a good guide of whether the huge scale of Omicron cases, above 80,000 in England for the past week, will translate into hospital admissions and put severe pressure on the NHS throughout January.
Merrick also says that, even if Boris Johnson does not impose new legal restrictions after Christmas, he could issue revised guidance as a means of discouraging social mixing.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/dec/22/uk-covid-live-easing-self-isolation-rules-more-people-spend-christmas-with-family-boris-johnson-latest-updates0 -
Kick them out.DeVlaeminck said:Just done a LFT and it's negative - was really not expecting that given my wife is positive - although I did a zwift race Monday night and averaged 310 watts which for me currently is decent so I guess I wasn't suffering any illness then.
Have taken a PCR this morning ,- it's actually very awkward trying to avoid two Covid positives in the same house.0 -
Went out to the pub last night as we do every Tuesday.
There were about 6 of us in the "main" part of the pub after about 9.30pm but the large adjoining restaurant was packed, properly packed for a "meeting" of antivaxxers. There must have been 80 - 100 of them.
On leaving the pub at chucking out time, there were a gaggle of these people outside nattering and I think they thought we had been in the meeting so when we came out of the pub, one small group (3 or 4) started talking to my mates and I. When we told them that we were fully vaxxed and boosted, one apparantly deranged woman began to tell us how sorry she felt for us and our kids as we were absolutely, undoubtedly going to die in line with the government's current policy of "depopulating" by vaccine.
No amount of reasoning or questioning would eleicit anything like a sensible answer.
Q. "Why would the government want to depopulate?"
A. "OH MY GOD . . . Arrrrrgh . . . you just don't get it!"
Q. "Get What?"
A. "that they're trying to kill you!"
Q. But why would they want to kill me?"
A. Arrgh!
And so it continued until my mate and I got bored.
They were total nutters! I was just amazed how many there were in this little village pub. Their evangelical approach was something I haven't seen since the days when people would come up to you in the street to ask if Jesus was in your life. . .
Scary stuffWilier Izoard XP0 -
Fine. 23.59 on Saturday. Happy now??darkhairedlord said:
There is no midnight on Saturday.johngti said:Just done an LFT. My isolation ended at midnight on Saturday so I’m 3 days out and it was negative. So a case study of one but answered that question for me.
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Nice average, but from my experience, don't use power numbers as a good judge of whether you are or have been infected recently.DeVlaeminck said:Just done a LFT and it's negative - was really not expecting that given my wife is positive - although I did a zwift race Monday night and averaged 310 watts which for me currently is decent so I guess I wasn't suffering any illness then.
While my better half was struggling to breathe because of Covid in March '20 (this week marks the sad one year anniversary since she last did a work shift, thanks to Long Covid), the worst I had initially was a splitting headache four days later.
Over the next month, my power numbers remained decent, including my best 1min to date and since. However, giving it full beans up sub 300ft hills left me wrecked for 3-4 days including having to sleep when I got home from work shifts, instead of needing no more than two days between such efforts back then. Also had bruised feeling around rib cage that moved from day to day. I learned the hard way that I needed to revert to sub z3 for another month before resuming z4+ efforts.
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2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
2016 Voodoo Wazoo1 -
I would have been telling them to stay away from me and not to speak to me then be testing daily!0
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Must be really shit poison they're putting in the vaccine given they're having to do boosters now.0
